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Confusion adds to transient in Politics!

Kathmandu: - Confusion reigns. Whether the opening Maoist-Government talks will help do away with confusion is itself part of the confusion. The source of the confusion is the political parties, which have cornered themselves into an overtly aggressive stand regarding the solution to the current crisis. Whatever, their standpoints- restoration of the dissolved parliament ort as government of parliamentary parties – it boils out to the original source of the confusion, namely, a government staffed and led by either the Girija Congress or the UML. It is this insistence on conducting any elections worth the name from the advantage of government that has degenerated the Nepali Constitutional process to the current stage. Outside these political parties everyone now acknowledges that this trend conceives the very source of confusion since the advantage of government is sought to prevent the government machinery for electoral advantage.

Not surprisingly the Maoists in their own revolutionary parlance seek the same advantage. Having g0one to war on platform of constitutional change they now seek peace with a compromise on an interim government of their participation. Their standpoint on a constituent assembly and a republican form of government have been so mellowed in the month log ceasefire process that the talks have now to hinge on what government is formed under what sort of participation.

These two corners in a triangle of conflicting political forces where the King has now assumed the third corner make Nepali politics for the moment one of a kind. There is thus room to predict that this politics is highly transient, it is highly volatile and it is inimical to the democratic process which have been disrupted by with the Maoists and the political parties who make much politics by blaming the King for the disruption.

The logic that the restoration of the democratic process is prime priority for the King holds. But for this he must disentangle himself from the Web of Contradictory political demands that suit both the extremes in their effort to dump the blame on the king and regains-eroding public credibility. It is thus that the public grasps at speculative alternatives it he realization of the King’s priorities. Speaker Taranath Rana Bhat, or former DPM Shailaja Acharays, K.P Woli or Bam Dev Gautam all in the mainstream parties who voice differences with their leadership immediately are picked upon possible Prime Ministerial candidates in an all party interim government for this reason.

These speculations make obvious the distance hat both G.P Koirala and Madhav Nepal has created in the public realm. They also make obvious the compulsion on part of the two to force the issue of their reinstatement to power. This makes obvious that they will disrupt the attempt to restore the democratic process and so it is possible to predict a constituting agitation. As of the moment it is not quite possible to predict exactly what line the Maoists will take. They count both the King and the political parties. This is also part of the confusion.

Pondering over the happening of "three separate events" last week and its possible political impact

Kathmandu: Prior to beginning of the much awaited Maoist-Government talks on Sunday, three events took place, deliberately or otherwise, which analysts opine could have an everlasting impact in the existing Nepalese politics.

Events usually take place. Nothing unusual about that. However, some events assume greater importance and significance for its timing and the style of the event thus happened.

To come to the point, the events that appear to shape the future events in this "conspiratorial" country are namely; first the sudden and non-publicised visit of Nepal’s number one political player and one of the top-hats of the RPP, Surya Bahadur Thapa to New Delhi last week.

Making pilgrimages to New Delhi by Nepali politicians is not altogether a new phenomenon. Thanks that our leaders of all sorts have maintained this tradition, which appear to continue ad infinitum should the country’s politics continue to be squeezed by Nepal’s vibrant politicians much the same way as they have been doing with it at the moment.

Thapa’s sneaking into the Indian capital last week assumes greater importance and significance because he did it so immediately after meeting the King at the Palace last Tuesday. Whether he was invited for a Royal audience or he sought this meeting with the monarch is yet to be clarified. However, what is for sure is that Thapa met the King last Tuesday and straight headed for Delhi.

Yet another factor makes Thapa’s Delhi trip important because Katmandu’s rumor mill strongly believes that Thapa of the RPP continues to be "one of the best friends" of the Indian establishment, a relation that both New Delhi and Thapa have maintained all along beginning the Panchayat days which happily continue till today.

What remains yet to be clarified is whether Thapa made a sudden dash to Delhi on his own or was told by the monarch to do so? If Thapa went to Delhi on his own then what he discussed with his friends in Delhi has not yet been made clear by Mr. Thapa who upon his return simply told the press men that he had gone there to check up his "health". But then the Nepali press were not briefed about Thapa’s deteriorating health that he had to rush to Delhi. If it were a minor health problem, then Nepali hospitals too would have come to his support. But he didn’t approach but felt comfortable in flying to Delhi. Here lies the political significance of Thapas’s Delhi trip.

Likewise, if Thapa acted as an emissary to the King and made his landing in Delhi then the national population would be pleased to know the details of his talks with the Indian leaders. But he would not divulge. He is one who is a known shrewd politician.

All put together, Thapas’s trip to Delhi has taken place at a time when the three political forces, e.g the King, the Maoists and the parliamentary parties, are hell bent on minimizing the role of the other two in order to have a greater role in the country’s future politics.

The second event that also is no less important is the visit of the Indian COAS, Mr. Viz. This visit has also taken place around the time of the beginning of the Government-Maoists talks.

The significance lies in the fact that India declared the Maoists as terrorists much ahead of Nepal’s declaration. COAS Viz indirectly stated that his side was ready to supply arms and ammunitions to contain the threat of the terrorists. Analysts opine that COAS Viz’s hint was towards the Maoists.

Analyzing COAS Viz’s statement two things come to the fore: that India would continue to supply arms to Nepal so that the latter could manage to contain the threats of the Maoists should the talks fail; and that the Maoists continue to be looked upon as terrorists by India even if Nepal lifted the tag of the terrorists. This also means that India considers Nepali Maoists as a threat to their own security given the supposed links with Nepali rebels with the Indian Maoists scattered in different parts of India.

Surprising though it may appear, high placed sources in Kathmandu say that Nepali Maoists took their shelter in India all along these seven years. But if India considers the Nepali rebels a threat to its own security then why she provided shelters to the rebels? Very difficult to understand indeed.

All put together, India will watch closely the proceedings of the talks and would feel more "comfortable" politically if the " self-marginalised" political parties join the talks. India is on record to have expressed its wish that the King and the government in Kathmandu must not sideline the rest of the political actors at time of the talks. Here lies the significance.

The third event that must have come as a bolt from the blue to the Maoists who have become aboveground recently was the signing of a sort of agreement in between Nepal and the United States regarding Nepal’s receiving the American support to contain the threat of terrorism. The amount is a big one and the timing is simply symbolic.

The US grant assistance has come at a time when the government and the Maoists have just begun their talks. The volume of the assistance, the timing of the assistance and the very intent of the agreement thus signed a day prior to the talks speak so many things at a time. Perhaps the message is clear to the Maoists.

Analysts opine that the US-Nepal agreement signed last week is a kind of subtle pressure on the Maoists rebels to arrive at a positive "conclusion" during the talks or else face the music.

The US intention might not be that as stated above but then the timing itself of the agreement is somewhat disturbing for the Maoists.

Or it could be that the dates for putting signatures on the said agreement were decided in advance which coincided with the resumption of the talks.

Be that as it may, these three separate events clearly will have its impact on Nepali politics. How it will have its impact will have to be carefully watched.

Confrontation of high intensity in offing

Kathmandu: Political maneuverings are on to bring politics to one’s side.

The six-party alliance that is opposing the King’s recent moves and wishes the King to correct what they call his constitutional blunders are all set to announce a sort of agitation cum movement shortly to press the King to yield.

The King remains undeterred but then has stepped up his meeting with various political leaders in order presumably to control the continuously deteriorating political situation of the country.

In the process the King has met a few leaders and has been ventilating through them that he was ready to sacrifice if peace prevailed in the Kingdom and also been hinting that the stances acquired by the Opposition—the six party alliance—were by no means contributing to the peace process initiated recently by the country.

The Opposition parties blame the King that his words and deeds differ.

Analysts appear surprised and question as to if the King could find time to meet personalities like Bijaya Kumar Gachhedar and Rabindra Nath Sharma separately and could ventilate his sincere feelings for the country and the system now in force, why can’t he see the parties in Opposition at a time and seek their suggestions in order to get the country out of the mess wherein the country is in?

Altogether four days are left when the Opposition parties led by Nepali Congress and the UML will announce their future programs to press the King to yield to their demands. Though the Opposition forces say that their would be movement will be a non-violent one and that it would in no way damage the ongoing talks with the rebels but analysts opine that Nepal’s movements or for that matter the agitation have ever remained a violent ones if one were to take into consideration the previous such demonstrations.

Surely, the movement once waged could take any form and dimension.

But what is the rationale of waging a movement at this critical juncture when the Maoists have come to attend the talks and in effect have already sat for the first round of talks with the government?

The explanation of the opposition parties that it would be a peaceful one and would not damage the ongoing talks is a big joke indeed. How the nation can remain in peace when there is a movement that possesses the potential of transforming itself into a violent one? The fact is that the nation has become so weak that even if a handful of students declare Nepal bundh on a particular day, it would be so inevitably.

The fact is also that the nation is tired of bundhs and closures in series. The fact is also that the national population observe the so-called bundhs and closures not because they adhere to the political ideologies of the group calling for bundhs, but for fear of violence and destruction. It has already been too much to the extent that a time will soon come when the national population will reject and neglect such bundhs for understandable reasons.

While the nation is slowly but very steadily heading towards a decisive confrontation, the civil society and the lay men remain confused thinking as to what would be the end result of such a confrontation that is in between the King, the Maoists and the parliamentary parties.

The international donor community including the countries of the developed West appears bewildered who have been forced to support Nepal’s ongoing politics even if it lacked a few elements that are demanded of a democratic system. This they presumably have been doing hoping that the government-Maoists talks will soon give a stable shape to Nepal’s derailed politics which would enable the country to go on in for elections at least at the local level so that the donors could resume their participation for the development of the country at the village and the district levels.

To sum up, it is apparently clear as to who or which forces are hindering the peace process? It is also clear as to which political actor(s) are impeding the national development. What is also clear is that the arrogance and obduracy currently being exhibited by various potential political actors will surely land this country into an abyss and the easy come back from that precipice would definitely be very hard if not impossible.

It is time that the opposition forces and the King come together and sort out their differences in the larger interest of the nation and its ever neglected and cheated people.

But who will mediate in between the two diametrically opposed forces? This is the million dollar question.

Analysts opine that the King and the opposition forces can converge on a point which allows the formation of an all party government which will continue the talks with the Maoists that has already begun. But will that arrangement be comfortable to the King? If this does happen will Koirala renounce his restoration of parliament agenda? Will that then satisfy Sher Bahadur Deuba who is demanding the restoration of his own "incompetent regime".

Be that as it may, a sort of compromise has got to be found at the earliest possible or else the country will suffer immensely.

Thanks that the incumbent ambassador is taking pains to manage a sort of compromise in between all these political actors who count much in today’s Nepali politics. Unsubstantiated reports have it that the unfolding Nepal events have forced the Indian Ambassador to postpone his official vacation sine die.

If this is true then what could be predicted in advance is that it would be India and India alone which would lend her support to this country to come out of the present mess for understandable reasons.

Meanwhile, the Americans too have reportedly suggested the Nepali Congress not to be a part of the scheduled movement against the monarchy. If this is true then what could be analysed is that the US fears that the movement could well slip out of the hands of the congress to the communists. Not an entirely absurd presumption.

Maoist rebels being cornered?

Kathmandu: The Maoists are being cornered from all possible sides, it appears.

To begin with, India still appears the Nepali rebels as terrorists. This was the implied message ventilated by the visiting COAS of India Shri Viz. His statements made in an indirect fashion aiming at the Nepali Maosits must have annoyed the rebels who have just entered into the talks with the government.

The next hint came in the form of an agreement signed recently in between the United States and Nepal government which allows further cooperation between the two contracting parties in the fight against terrorism. Analysts maintain that this agreement will put more pressure on the Maoists so that the latter arrived at a compromise with the Nepali establishment and joined the nation’s mainstream politics. In other words, the agreement thus signed in between the United States and the Nepal government will put an indirect pressure on the Maoists to settle their issues "amicably" as soon as possible.

The intent could just be otherwise but the timing of the signing of the said agreement is not in favor of the maoists.

The third major indication came from the Royal Nepali Army which point blank stated that whatever happens during the talks but the talks should concentrate in making it sure that the Maoists deposited the arms and the ammunitions they captured from the states’ security organs in the past.

This means that the Nepali army would wish the talks to continue but would concurrently prefer the return of the weapons looted by the rebels in the past.

The RNA has also made it abundantly clear to the Maoists that the "assimilation" the their "people’s army" or the "Red army" into the establishment’s regular and traditional security organ would simply be impossible. The RNA also makes it clear that entering into the RNA were guided by certain established rules and procedures.

This means that the Maoists who have been hoping that they will manage the easy entry of their warriors into the mainstream RNA will have to devise some other schemes to accomplish this job.

Since the statement has come from the RNA, it is expected that the government team at the talks can’t bypass the RNA’s subtle message. It is here that a sort of clash in between the two sides can’t be overruled during the second round of talks.

Fourth problem could arise hopefully again from Indian establishment. This is because the 24 point condensed political agenda released in the presence of the media men after the conclusion of the first round of talks with the government this Sunday, Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai says that his party would wish the reviewal of the 1950 treaty and that his camp would wish the introduction of a work-permit system for the foreigners. Dr. Bhattarai also states that Nepal-India open border is regulated henceforth.

Those who know India better say that India would never allow these two things to happen come what may for varied understandable reasons.

To recall, as and when Nepal and its leaders have voiced their concern over the 1950 treaty; introduction of work permit system and regulation of the open borders, she has retaliated in different forms.

How India reacts to Dr. Bhattarai’s pinching agenda is any body’s guess. Expectedly, if Bhattarai is sincere to his demands stated above would surely invite wrath from the concerned country.

But, to recall, the Indian establishment has time and again reiterated that she was ready to listen to Nepali grievances regarding the latter’s wish for a timely reviewal of the 1950 treaty.

All put together, the "new regime" of the Maoists will have rough and tough time in securing greater concessions from the "old regime".

Nepal and U.S. Governments sign Antiterrorism Assistance (ATA)

Kathmandu. On Friday, April 25th, His Majesty's Government of Nepal and the United States signed a Memorandum of Intent formalizing and strengthening both nations' participation in the Antiterrorism Assistance program. In a ceremony at Singha Durbar, Home Secretary Tika Dutta Niraula, representing
Nepal, and Ambassador Michael E. Malinowski, representing the United States, signed the Memorandum of Intent, which allows further cooperation between both nations in the fight against terrorism.

The Antiterrorism Assistance program was created in 1983 by the United States Congress and provides training, consultative, and equipment resource assistance to partner nations. The program focuses on advanced investigative, security, and counter-terrorism techniques, with a goal of rooting out all forms of terrorism and deterring future terrorist acts. The program uses a multidisciplinary approach, stresses respect for human rights, and employs subject matter experts from a variety of U.S. government agencies. Nepal is one of over 127 nations that have taken part in this program to combat terrorist activity. This agreement is a symbol of the special relationship that exists between the United States and Nepal, and their mutual interests in halting terrorism.

In the last two years, over 200 Nepali officials have received training through the Antiterrorism Assistance program in eight specialized subject areas. Courses have been conducted both in Nepal and the United States. A recent review conducted by U.S. program administrators visiting Nepal found that the program is having positive results, praised the security forces for their commitment to incorporate the training materials into their training and operations, and determined what additional requirements should be addressed over the next cycle.

This agreement formalizes and strengthens the antiterrorism relationship between His Majesty's Government of Nepal and the United States, and builds upon previous valuable cooperation in the war on terror.

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