I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Peace talks what design?

Kathmandu: - By time this comes to print, scene will have shifted from Nepalganj where focus is on the much heralded Government-Maoists talks. Preliminary results indicate that at best agreement will be for more talks. The Maoists, predictably blow hot and cold leaving a this line to continue the talks but the heat is apparently on government for producing tangible agreements; the most tangible yield will perhaps be the table again. As Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai uses the opportunity again to lambaste the government proposal as a US prepared document for imperialist designers, the rhetoric nevertheless by a veneer of this rationality allowing for more talks. There is reason for hope but the continuity itself diminishes chances of immediate tangible peace.

And, so thoughts must go to the other alternatives if a break of this shaky peace. There is a dangerous message in Dr. Bhattarai’s press-statements addressed directly to Maoist cadre.

The fact is that the Maoists cadres have not been indoctrinated to the success of the peace talks. Moreover, the cadres have been told to expect that third round to be merely "strategic". The fact is that the Maoists have doubted their armed strength since they invited flagrant war by their turn about from the Deuba Peace talks with the attack on the army at Dang. The fact is that they have termed the rise in armed skirmishes with the army as missions designed to probe and display strength.

All these indicators are hardly signs of fruitful peace talks and the heat sends contradictory messages that call for no laxity on part of a government aware that their longevity depends on the continuity of talks.

From Nepalgunj to Dang to elsewhere, thus, the talks at best will continue. At worse, it will be war. There is a deliberate design in government prolonging the talks. The fair is that it is the same with the Maoists.

Talks have resumed; possibility of resurrection of war remains

Kathmandu: The resumption of the government-Maoist talks have not at all averted the dangers of the resumption of yet another war in between the two warring sides who though reluctantly sat for the third round of talks.

The crisis continues. Both the sides appear determined to push their declared agenda come what may.

Analysts opine that it is not the government but the Maoists who appear adamant on their agenda. On the contrary, the government in an unprecedented and unbelievable manner announced plans and policies to be undertaken to accommodate the Maoists agenda should the talks come to an end positively.

The Maoists have summarily rejected the government political agenda stating that they wish to listen from the government side its position and stand on the following: the King; the army and the constituent assembly.

"If these are not brought into the picture, why for we created a havoc for all along these seven years", said a Bhattarai—the Maoist negotiator immediately after the government announced its broader plans and policies in order to appease the Maoists side.

Visibly, the Maoists side will not settle for less unless it is assured by the establishment side that the role of the King and the Army will be cut down from what it is today.

The Maoists wish a reduced role of the Nepali monarchy—the government will perhaps not agree to it. The Maoists prefer the army’s role substantially reduced and the security organ being put under the broad umbrella of the parliament—the government apparently reject this demand for obvious reasons. The Maoists wish elections to the constituent assembly to which the government says that if the Maoists demands could be met with by incorporating and effecting certain substantial changes in the existing constitution, there is no need to go in for a constituent assembly as strongly and very forcefully demanded by the other camp.

If this is so then what is evident is that the Maoists and the government will agree to disagree with each other and will in all probability work out another date for yet another round of discussion.

That they will not agree this time around becomes clear from the expressions emanating from the two camps: the Maoists wish that the government comes forward with some more tangible concessions and rewrites the already declared government political agenda that suits to their political interests and the struggle that they waged for all along these seven years.

The government wishes to buy time and prefers to linger the issue stating that let the members of the civil society, the lay men , the political parties and the intellectuals debate on the political agenda just released by the establishment side prior to the happening of the talks in Nepalganj, Sunday. The government in doing so apparently wishes that the broader reform and the political package it has released will have a wide ranging impact, albeit a positive one, on the population including the political parties which in turn could be used to "press" the adamant Maoists to comply with. In other words, the government expects that the majority of the population will support its programs just released which time permitting will act as a handy-popular tool to press the Maoists to compromise on the lines charted by the government. The fact is that the government'’ political agenda released Sunday, fortunately, addresses most of the demands of the Maoists which they have been aspiring for. Analysts maintain that the Maoists side must not have even thought that the government would go to this extent in addressing their agenda and that too in such an elaborate manner that the released agenda looks like as if the government wishes to turn Nepal into a Ram Rajya.

The government talks of the Dalits, the women folks, and the oppressed class and assures that a certain percentage of the seats in the affairs of the state, including the parliament and the upper house, for these neglected and hated class will be kept reserved. This means that the government is now ready to address the issues raised by the Maoists since long. A number of Dalits and the men from the oppressed class have welcomed the government’s plan to the utter dismay and perhaps displeasure of the Maoists.

Nevertheless, the mood of the Maoists is to extract good amount of concessions from the other camp. This they apparently are doing to either appease their own cadres or to justify their seven years old struggle-violence.

Reports have it that the Maoists side have already been assured by the government side that their demand of an interim arrangement and the round table conference could easily be met. Sources in Nepalganj reveal that the government is ready to invite Maoists leaders in an interim arrangement at a later stage. Not very surprisingly the Maoists expect or have been seducing the government side that they should be allowed to head the interim cabinet if at all it comes into existence. However, who will head such an interim arrangement is not yet decided.

Be that as it may, of the three important demands of the Maoists—interim arrangement, round-table conference and a constituent assembly—two have already been tentatively met with. What remains is the election to the constituent assembly, which the government appears to ignore at least for the time being.

Thus what comes to the fore is that the government will bank on the support of the civil society and of the political parties and the lay men, the Maoists will continue to extract extra mileage and in the process of achieving their goals they might use both the tactics of terror and negotiations. This gets reflected from the fact that they are in the negotiations and they are fighting with the state security organs.

The political parties have turned down the government plans summarily for their own understandable reasons.

By the way, countries like United States, and the United Kingdom have gleefully appreciated the government’s broader and all pervasive plans just announced to address the major issues put forth by the Maoists. Neighboring India too has welcomed the government plans. To recall, India continues to dub the Nepali Maoists as terrorists. Nepali Maoists supposedly hide in India, which the establishment knows. India is simply great.

All in all, the dark clouds are still hovering over Nepali sky. The talks might fail. Not very surprising therefore the army’s from both the camps have been kept on RED ALERT.

King prescribes constructive role for himself: Is it ‘enlightened despotism’?

Kathmandu: Thapa government’s repeated offers made to the agitating political parties to participate in the talks were turned down.

This nevertheless did not deter the government to proceed for the talks. IN so doing, the government pulled the carpet under the feet of the now agitating parties which must have made them more frustrated and depressed for having been totally ignored and sidelined by the establishment. However, it was their own choice to remain out of the talks.

The fact is that the government, unconstitutional in the eyes of the agitating five, sat for the talks. The government brought the already annoyed and the angry Maoists to the negotiating table. The government is being appreciated by the people here and there to the extent that some powerful democracies have hailed the government plans and policies released Sunday which they say was a forward looking agenda and hope that the Maoists would appreciate the government’s concern in addressing the agenda of the rebels.

The agitating five are listening to the radio which is airing the welcome news sent by the UK, US and nearby India. Some other countries will soon follow.

The government requested them all to join the talks. They rejected. But then the unconstitutional government to what they claim began receiving congratulatory messages from "powerful and democratic" governments for its political acumen that brought the rebels to the table. A completely embarrassed and inferiority complex ridden leaders of the agitating five found no other political alternative other than to welcome the convening of the talks and wished the talks a grand success. This they did out of pressure that was building in the country and without. They appreciated the government’s courage to sit in the talks for fear of being further sidelined and totally neglected by the larger comity of the nations abroad and back home by their own voters.

The fact is that the agitating five stand exposed. Their agitation has already become redundant. Neither the King has yielded to their demands nor the government appears to yield. The Maoists too apparently have rejected them considering that the agitating five wish the continuation of the 1990 constitution with some reforms to address the Maoists issues while the latter wished a new constitution.

The agitating five, however, wish the talks to fail. If it were not so why they didn’t join the talks that could restore peace the absence of which has hit them all too hard, to recall. The plan, sources say, is to irritate the Maoists and seduce them not to settle for less so that the government is politically cornered. The plan is to seduce the Maoists to speak against the monarchy so that the Monarchy’s role is reduced in the scheme of things coming at a later stage. The plan is to weaken the RNA which is what the Maoists too visibly wish. The plan is to install a monarchy that is too weak so that they could loot the nation as they did in the recent past.

The fact is that on the question of limiting the role of the army and the monarchy, the government of the day possesses no mandate to consider even the talks on those lines and hence the government did try to jump onto other issues other than the monarchy and the army.

However, there is one possibility left with the agitating five and that being joining the hands of the Maoists should the talks abruptly fail. IN that eventuality, the agitating five could go to any extent that allows them a chip to bargain with the monarch.

However, a confident monarch is all set to leave for his health-check-up at a time when the agitating five will have entered into their seventh round of agitation. The monarch’s absence in the country could have been guided by two different motives: firstly, the King could have concluded that it was not necessary for him to be in the country to watch the namesake agitation of the five political parties; and that, secondly, the Thapa government was in place to take care of the already fizzled out agitation around the time when he will be out.

That the King attaches less significance to the agitation becomes clear from his fresh interview granted to one fortnightly wherein he says that he wishes to become a "constructive" monarch but not an "active" monarch.

Perhaps this explains everything as to how the King sees the agitation. The message contained therein the King’s expression is meaningful. In other words, the King wishes to send signals to the agitating parties that he will not settle for less than a "constructive monarchy". Is the King talking of the emergence of an "enlightened despotism" in Nepal when he says so?

To recall, a Nepali scholar, Dr. Surendra K.C—teacher of History at the T.U, has recently outlined a model for Nepali monarch which he says should be an "enlightened despotism" which resembled somewhat with a monarchy that existed in Europe centuries back. Is King Gyanendra talking of that European model for himself? Will such an enlightened despotism suit in the present day context that is in the 21st. Century?

Look at the coincidence: Dr. K.C presents a paper on how should be Nepali monarchy in the 21st century and pat comes the reply from the monarch that he would wish to become a "constructive monarch" and not an active monarch as he is being alleged by the agitating five.

How the Nepali intelligentsia react to the King’s new formulation of his own role for Nepal will have to be watched.

Different brains, different political views

Kathmandu: Different brains, different views.

Look at these views.

The enunciator of the first view is none less than Sher Bahadur Deuba, the former prime minister of the country who was billed as "incompetent" prime minister.

He says when the King can’s listen to his one point agenda and that being the restoration of his sacked government then how come the King can listen to the eighteen point agenda of the five agitating parties and those of the Maoists?

In other words, Deuba believes that the King will not yield to any of the demands put forth by the political parties, the Maoists and his one itself.

Look at the other view that emanates from yet another enlightened brain of Madhav Nepal.

Mr. Nepal says how could a King who doesn’t accept the established norms of a democratic system would accede to the demands of the Maoists who more or less wish the King to step down to the role of a Prime Minister or for that matter the president?

The third view emerges from an all powerful but destructive political brain. He is President Koirala who believes that it is the Royal Palace that has remained instrumental in damaging the popularity of the system and that it is the Palace which has been the real source of all the troubles that have cropped into the system specially after the advent of this new order.

However, Koirala forgets to tell the population his own share or for that matter the contributions that he has made in destroying the beauties of a system that is considered to be one of the best systems among the crowd of the worst.

Similarly, Madhav Nepal too forgets that his leadership allowed the Mahakali treaty to go into the folds of India and he wishes to divert the attention of the population on how he managed the smooth ratification of the Mahakali treaty in the parliament and concurrently he wishes to dump the fact that it was the forced ratification of the same treaty in the parliament that brought a vertical split in the mainstream UML then.

Can the UML leaders face the public and declare that while the treaty was being ratified, they weren’t influenced by certain foreign powers?

Informed citizenry ask the status of the same Mahakali treaty? Where is the treaty that were to bring in White Dollars into the country? Where have the dollars gone? Who ate up the dollars? What is the status of the DPR of the Mahakali treaty? Questions galore remain which the then prime minister Deuba, the men in the opposition including the RPP must answer if they are really nationalist.

Dumping all the failure onto the heads of the others is an easy task. However, to accept the weaknesses exhibited by one self is an entirely different job.

The political parties have definitely committed blunders and have ruined the nation. They can’t escape. The fact is also that the monarch also is to be blamed for having been not able to tame the errant leaders while they were committing crimes against the State.

Whether the 1990 constitution continues in place after the negotiations with the rebels, or the rebels force the establishment to draft an altogether a new constitution, the people at large would very much wish to have a powerful body at the center, could be a monarch also, who could be able to tame the leaders going astray.

Donor Agencies not serious on Girl Child Education: Government

Taking integrated approach could solve the problem of Gender Disparity in Nepal, said UNICEF/ROSA chief Dr. Sadiq Rashid. He was speaking at a talk program organized by the SID(Society for International Development) Nepal chapter. He emphasized the role of the society in sending a girl child to school. First educating the illiterate mothers and assuring the ignorant parents the worth of the girl child’s education is necessary said Dr. Rashid.

Professor Bishwa Keshar Maskey the president of SID-Nepal chapter said that the figure of net enrollment has gone up from 58.7 percent in 1996 to 81.1 percent in 2001but the gender gap going up to 11 per cent is the major problem. He said strict policy if adopted by the government while laying out development plans to promote girl child education could be beneficial to help solve the problem. However, he rejected only gender discrimination being responsible for the present state of girl child education.

He added cooperation between the International Donors, Civil Society, and Policy Makers is the necessity to over come the problem of sheer poverty, preference for a boy, child marriage, poor teaching quality, poor class room environment and lack of sanitation and safe drinking water facilities.

Speaking from the government side Laba Prasad Tripathi, Spokesperson at the Ministry of Education said the government has already announced various programs like scholar-ships and special programs to attract girl child to schools. He said, the Donor Agencies also need to be more transparent while providing grants. "Ambiguity on the part of of the donor agencies has also created problems in performing such development tasks", stressed Tripathi.

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