I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Jostling for cabinet remains

Kathmandu: Rumors have been floated that Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa upon return from his SAARC junket will expand his cabinet to accommodate some RPP members in order to pacify the opposition in the party prior to his attendance at the party disciplinary committee.

His cabinet members namely ministers Kamal Thapa and Prakash Chandra Lohani, on the other hand, have taken a belligerent stand on the party leaderships’ demand for a resignation and the mobilization of the mass media to disseminate the belligerence is considered meaningful in the accommodation process.

How much Thapa will win away support from the party leadership will perhaps influence his coming reaction. If the going is good a split that gives the RPP-Thapa real impetus will occur. If, on the other hand, the compromise is real, the cabinet will have non-Thapa RPP leadership.

But this appears remote going by hectic groundwork being done in other sections for an all-party cabinet that is also expected to include the RPP. That the exercises have begun would seem real in light of even RPP activities following the demand for the Thapa resignation from government. Indeed, sources say that the party leadership precipitated independent action from the Thapa coterie in preparation for the coming elections. This is as much indicated by the immediate rounds currently being undertaken by cabinet stalwarts and the vociferous outpouring of wrath against the party leadership being conducted by cabinet members.

Also to be watched is the subtle support provided to the Thapa cabinet by the Girija faction of the congress. Former Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala is also undertaking organizational tours presumably in preparation for the elections.

At another level, G.P.Koirala continues to head the four and a half party coalition threatening a tenth-phase of agitation against the Royal move of October 2002. Significantly, the threatened tenth phase has yet to have a coherent programme and Koirala’s leadership of the threatened movement appears to be suddenly challenged by the separate parleys being conducted by the UML’s Madhav Nepal.

Indeed, confusion among the agitating leadership suggests that a change in approach may be forthcoming particularly in the UML which appears to be also stalling its party rift in the process. The standpoint now in the UML is an all-party government with the UML participation and somewhere it is lost that the stalemate occurred because of Madhav Nepal’s claim to cabinet leadership and so it is possible that the UML will join a cabinet led by some other who can forge a more representative cabinet.

The pressure on the monarchy for a suitable compromise has nevertheless continued. The tenth phase of the agitation remaining a threat at the moment has a rallying point, it seems, in the constitution of the Constitutional Council.

It is noteworthy that Prime Minister Thapa initiated media discussion on the seeming dispute between the King and Council by leaking to the media the fact that the King was sitting on his (Council’s) recommendation of Bhoj Raj Pokhrel, a former Secretary. Thapa then distanced himself from the controversy by claiming that he had yet to submit the recommendations and then allowed judiciary members to demand the feeling up of the vacant constitutional council positions. And, now it is the none other than Girija congress Speaker Tara Bhat who leaks to the public the King’s private advice for more such names included in the recommendations. Legal interpretations and public discussions rally the cadre on the King overstepping his constitutional limits and there is a concerted effort to press the judiciary-the prime minister, the Speaker and the Chief Justice are sole members currently making the recommendation.

It is however, significant that the partisan discussions on the affair purposely keep light away from the PM’s nominee Bhoj Raj Pokhrel. He is a former civil servant intrinsically linked family and otherwise to the Girija coterie and his previous records deserve scrutiny given the evident Royal reluctance.

Will Thapa resign under pressure?

Kathmandu: The King is in the news simply because he is not listening to the demands of the four and a half party coalition against what they call "regression".

Girija Prasad Koirala is also in the news for his vitriolic remarks continuously being made against the King. Madhav Nepal, the UML leader is in the news for his (mis)adventure that prompted him to sneak into the Indian territory to see Comrade Prachanda without informing his political colleagues in the agitation against regression.

Comrade Narayan Man of the NMKP is also hitting media headlines for his scathing remarks against the leaders of other political parties housed in the coalition. Better late than never, Comrade Narayan Man has now come to the conclusion that the Congress led by Girija and the UML led by Madhav Nepal were currently on agitation simply to bounce back to power. "They are power lust parties", opined Narayan Man.

Nepal’s southern neighbor India is in the news for three reasons: firstly for her supposed ignorance on the whereabouts of Nepal’s Maoists leaders residing in India. The Indian CBI Chief is on record to have said that his agency was not in knowledge of any Maoists leaders taking shelter in India. He said this immediately after Madhav Kumar Nepal met Comrade Prachanda in Lucknow, India, and told the Nepali population that he had met the Maoist leader in one unidentified area in the said Indian city that is close to Nepali border in the west.

Secondly, India is in the news because Indian Prime Minister suggested, some say it were in the form of an instruction, this country to form an all-party government and face the challenges confronting the nation of late.

The third reason is that President Koirala once again has told the Nepali press that "Madhav Nepal by sneaking into the Indian territory to meet Prachanda must have embarrassed India".

Knowingly or unknowingly, president Koirala amply hinted that the leaders’ of the Nepali insurgency lived in India.

To recall, Girija Prasad Koirala a couple of years ago while he was himself the country’s Prime Minister had point blank told that Maoists’ were receiving support from India. What prompted Koirala to say so was, however, made not clear that time.

Bajpayee’s suggestions have had its impact in Kathmandu. It rained in Delhi and all the political umbrellas were up in Kathmandu. This amply suggests that how much Indian utterances on Nepali matters mean to the Nepali leaders.

In effect, the suggestion that has come from Delhi is nothing new for Nepal. At private conversations, all Nepali leaders subscribe to the idea that Nepal be now governed by an all-party arrangement. However, Nepali ideas have simply been rejected by our own leaders because the ideas were exclusively Nepali. Now that India has commanded that Nepal should go on the lines of Delhi’s wishes, it would not be a surprise if Nepal as a nation-state accepts the suggestions or instructions coming as it does from across the border.

Some even have begun interpreting that Bajpayee’s statement were sufficient enough for the ouster of the incumbent Prime Minister Thapa. This section believes that Nepal can’t afford to disobey the Indian desires. Others maintain that it would be folly to sack Prime Minister Thapa on New Delhi’s hints.

Analysts in Kathmandu, however, possess different views. They say prime minister Thapa will continue and would work more energetically in giving his present cabinet an all-party look.

The contention is that, firstly, Thapa will not resign on his own. The King can’t tell Thapa to resign because if the King says so Thapa might inform the King that he will not resign because he is the nation’s prime minister who enjoys executive powers. This means under normal conditions Thapa will not resign. At best the King can sack him using the same charismatic article 127 which a few months back had been used to elevate the ranks of RPP leader-Thapa.

What will have to be watched is how the politics of the nation moves upon Thapa’s return from his SAARC junket.

Does this mean that the stalemate will continue for long? And what is the guarantee that the nation will take a safe road if Thapa is replaced by some other new face? After all those who are in the race for the country’s executive post were all known "politicians" who one way or the other have contributed to this country’s slide in practically all the possible sectors.

Koirala sees ‘design’ in UML leader’s secret India trip

Kathmandu: Nepali Congress president sees a "design" when Madhav Nepal enters the Indian territory and meets the Maoists’ leader Prachanda.

For Koirala, Madhav’s going to India were not a decision taken by the UML leader on his own. Koirala reveals that Madhav Nepal went to Lucknow at the instructions of King Gyanendra.

Koirala has reasons to be unhappy with both the King and Madhav Nepal.

Koirala’s anger on Mr. Nepal is presumably because the latter did not seek any advice from his prior to his Lucknow secret sojourn. It is only but natural that Koirala felt cheated when one of the prominent partner of the coalition against "regression" minimized Koirala’s role in the country’s politics more so when it came to a meeting between two communist stalwarts and that too in a alien land.

Had Koirala been informed by Mr. Nepal of his secret trip to Lucknow, the act would not have been otherwise. Its corollary would be that whosoever wishes to conduct such a tour to foreign country, he or she must take proper instructions from president Koirala. Failing to do so tantamount to a design. If further analyzed, it should be Koirala and he alone who should take such positive initiatives on behalf of the nation. Others do not possess the right to act in a manner that simply offends Koirala.

Koirala’s anger for the King is, analysts say, conditional. The condition set by Koirala for the King is very simple.

If the King toed Koirala’s line, he is one of the best friends of the monarch. If the King goes against Koirala or exhibits his reluctance in accepting to the Koirala demands, the King is dubbed as a designer.

It’s not very surprising therefore Koirala sees a design woven by the King in Madhav Nepal’s sneaking to India last fortnight. Not only that, according to Koirala, Madhav Nepal by acting under the instructions of the King has already become a part of the design.

Informed analysts in Kathmandu say that Koirala in attacking the King and the UML leader at a go is simply creating discord in bgetween the parties whom is is attacking of late. Understandably, if Madhav Nepal is pressed to the wall, he would retaliate with equal force which will not be very good for the political health of the already loose fight against regression.

That Madhav Nepal is now looking the five party agitation in a different manner comes to light when one notes Mr. Nepal’s growing political hob-nobbing with Koirala’s political detractors, for example, Sher Bahadur Deuba. Informed sources say that Madhav Nepal is already in the move and in the process he is meeting the leaders of various political shades in order to restore normalcy in the country. The aim is to convince the King that it would be wise for him also if the monarch joined hands with the agitating political leaders in the larger interest of the nation. In the process, high placed sources say that Madhav Nepal and Koirala differ on so many counts which means that there is already a fissure in the five party coalition.

The fact is that Koirala dislikes Madhav Nepal for obvious political reasons. Madhav Nepal can’t remain silent and halt his newly developed political ideas simply for fear of president Koirala.

The leaders of the Sadbhavana ( Anandi devi) faction are in the agitation simply to garner political recognition from the population or else the party is as good as cipher. Albeit, its presence could be seen in some areas of Terai region.

The leader of the NMKP, Narayan Man, is already up against the congress and the UML leaders and has recently said that those two parties were power lust political entities and nothing more than that.

Putting together, what comes to the fore is that the five party coalitions is already counting its last breath. Unless a sort of miracle saved their unity, the coalition is gone.

Be that as it may, Madhav Nepal’s new initiatives have a resemblance in Bajpayee’s fresh statement wherein the Indian Prime Minister urges Nepal to move ahead with a sort of all-party government. This is exactly what Madhav Nepal is doing at the moment.

Whether it is just a mere coincidence or otherwise will have to be watched.

The fact is that all the major political forces must come closer to the King and vice versa. Analysts see no other viable option than this. If this does happen might prepare grounds for elections.

Once the elections are held, the derailed constitution would automatically come to its original track. Once the new parliament comes into action, the system and the constitution will automatically begin functioning as desired by Koirala and his colleagues in the coalition, say analysts. This will enhance the capability of the government in power to initiate talks with the rebels.

The debate over constitutional council nomination continues

Kathmandu: The country is in yet another constitutional crisis.

The crisis is regarding the King’s alleged intervention in the selection of some members for the vacant constitutional posts.

Two diametrically opposing views are currently in vogue. The first holds that the King as a constitutional monarch must honor the recommendations of the Constitutional Council and therefore the King is bound to nominate the very name as suggested by the Council. The King has no choice, this set maintains.

Others defend the King’s right and claim that the King too must be allowed to have his say on matters pertaining to the selection of members for the constitutional council posts.

The first set has its logic drawn from the universal concept of a constitutional monarchy. This set presumes that the King, the constitutional monarch, is more or less like a rubber stamp of the sort of British monarchy and possess no right or whatsoever to reject the selections of the Constitutional Council.

The contending set wishes to see the imbroglio in wider perspective. This set believes in allowing the monarch a real say in such matters for it claims that a personality of the sort of the constitutional monarch who as per the constitution is the protector of the constitution could raise his eyebrows if he sees the person(s) thus nominated and sent by the constitutional council for the monarch’s perusal is not fit for the honored post.

The controversy arose when some months back the council proposed the name of Mr. Bhoj Raj Pokhrel, a former HMG Secretary, for the post of the Election Commissioner. The King reportedly had some reservations on the name proposed by the council. As the rumors go, the King recently talked to the men housed in the Council to reconsider their previous decision and add some more good names so that he could select one among the many.

Unsubstantiated reports say that Mr. Pokhrel possesses soft corner for the congress party led by Girija Prasad Koirala.

The King’s request to the members of the Council got leaked when Congress Speaker Taranath Bhat apprised the whole story to his colleagues at a meeting held recently in Teku.

With Mr. Bhat’s revelation, two separate theories are being discussed in the Nepali academic and constitutional circle.

The first set says that Mr. Bhat’s revelation amply suggests that the King has exceeded his constitutional limits and that he must correct his intervention in the selection process by accepting the first name as proposed by the Council members some months back.

The other set says that Taranath Bhat by disclosing his conversation with the King at the Palace has committed a political blunder and by doing so he has acted in an "irresponsible" manner. Leading advocate Bishwa Kant Mainali talking to the NTV the other day opined that any private conversation with the Head of State should not be made public as per the constitution now in force. According to him, no court of law could discuss or initiate debate over any matter that the King does or accomplishes in private with any leader, be it the prime minister or for that matter any leader of the sort of Mr. Bhat.

He however, also said that such talks assume no seriousness at a time when major political parties have been claiming that the constitution has already derailed.

" I wonder why the political parties have made a hue and cry for this when they themselves have been saying that the whole affair since the Royal move of October 4, 2002 was an unconstitutional one", added advocate Mainali.

However, the Chief Justice who also happens to be a member of the constitutional council when grilled by his colleagues Monday said that he was not supposed to divulge the details as demanded by his friends in the judicary.

"I am not a politician and that since I am attached to judiciary, I must abide by the ethics of the profession", so said the CJ.

Summing it up, what comes to the fore is that the King in a subtle manner wishes to assert some powers that he could use at time of crisis in the country. This he already did by using the article 127 and assumed executive powers on his personality. In a democracy, generally the executive powers are vested in the Prime Minister. The King has already set precedence.

The King apparently also wishes to have his say in important constitutional post selection process. This he has already hinted.

France favors early resumption of Government-Maoist dialogue

Kathmandu: According to an agreement signed between the Government of France and HMG/N on 27th August 2001, the French Food Aid planned for 2000-2001 for a total of 8 thousand metric tones of Soft Wheat will arrive in Nepal next week, states a press release issued by the French embassy here.

The revenue of the sales, adds the press note, will be transferred by the Nepal Food Cooperation into the counterpart fund of the French Food Aid for financing the food security program for Nepal, FSPN,launched in July 2003.

The program is based on the following objectives as per the press release.

Strengthening at the local level the capacities of the producers, the farmers organization and the local administration.

Increase locally the food availability.

Improve access to the market and livelihoods conditions.

This was disclosed by the French Ambassador to Nepal, His Excellency Claude Ambrosini, at a reception organized by him at his residence Tuesday evening.

On the same occasion, the French Ambassador opined that there "cannot be solution to the Maoist Conflict through the use of the arms.

"France has constantly repeated this and I repeat again now", stressed French Ambassador Ambrosini.

Proper conditions must be created to ensure political stability, the return to the democratic multi-party system under the constitutional monarchy regime and the renewal of the dialogue between the government and Maoist, added the French diplomat.

"This must be done fast", concluded the Ambassador.

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