Nepal’s Most Likely Peace Process Scenario

Dr. David Scott Palmer, Boston University, USA

Nepal is in a particularly difficult moment at this time. The government lacks the legitimating effect that democratic status would provide and is further weakened, at least until recently, by a seemingly improvisational approach to the peace process. The Maoists, for their part, have pursued a superior strategy that exerts constant pressure with sets of demands designed to keep the government off balance and on the defensive. In addition, both sides’ determination up to now to try out a peace process without outside intermediaries seems on balance to have favored the rebels and to have worked against the government. Furthermore, with the decision by the major political parties to oppose their current regime, the government is further limited in its ability to participate in the peace discussions from a position of relative strength. Adding to the uncertainty is the way in which the rebels have used the peace talks, not to find a solution to the conflict, but as a strategic ploy to regroup before launching another military campaign, as they have done in the past. Finally, the widespread perception, advanced by both sides, that an agreement could be hammered out quickly once they sat down together and began to negotiate seriously is completely at odds with experiences elsewhere and created expectations among the general public that were bound to be dashed.

Nepal’s situation is further complicated by its neighbor, India, whose government is in a position to play a significant role in the process and is doing so in multiple ways- from providing military assistance and advice to the King, on the one hand, and yet on the other hand continuing to five the Maoist leadership safe haven and strongly opposing a role by the United Nations (which has offered its assistance). From outside perspective, it would seem that India’s interests in Nepal would be best advanced by its wholehearted and unequivocal support for the government in the peace process. Some, however, see India’s involvement is contributing to the perpetuation and exacerbation of Nepal’s internal crisis and setting the stage for an eventual direct intervention. Whatever India’s motivation and ultimate objective, however, there is no question but that its role will be significant, perhaps even vital, factor in the Nepal conflict and its eventual denouement.

Given these multiple considerations as they bear on Nepal’s peace process, the "best case" scenario represented by El Salvador’s experience is unlikely to be achieved unless by restoring democracy and develops a more effective negotiating strategy, and until the Maoists become convinced that a genuine negotiated solution is in their interest as well. The evidence available also suggests the "worst case" scenario of Nicaragua is an equally remote possibility unless it turns out that the RNA and the Armed Police are much weaker that they appear and that the Maoists have more pipular support and armed strength that seems to be the case at this time. With the break down in talks and rebel resumption of their people’s war, the Peru scenario is a distinct possibility it the military and police gain a greater intelligence capacity and tactical mobility to go with their superior numbers and equipment, and the Maoists suffer a loss of local support and significant defections as the result of their terrorist tactics. The likelihood of a Guatemala scenario for Nepal is premature, because there has been to date no real advancement in the peace negotiations and thus no accord that fails to be implemented fully. However, the Guatemala scenario also conveys a warning for Nepal if and when a peace accord is reached concerning the pitfall of incomplete implementation.

While nothing is certain at this point, the scenario that seems most probable is that of Colombia, in which neither the authorities nor the rebels can agree on terms for peace and violence resumes, but with the advantage slowly shifting towards the government as it gains greater military capacity through outside support and the insurgents find they are unable to retain their earlier strategic and tactical advantages. This scenario is now developing in Nepal with the breaking off of a peace talks and, among other Maoist initiatives, an urban terrorist campaign directed at the capital – much as Shining Path initiated in Peru in the late 1980s. In Peru’s case, it was this urban terrorism that finally galvanized the elites to change their approach to dealing with the insurgency, a change that eventually produced results. While Nepal’s situation is different because it has involved peace talks by the parties to the conflict, it may take such an event to convince the government that it must change its approach to resolve the conflict. In this context, the possibilities for future negotiations will increase if both sides conclude that stalemate rather than victory is the most probable outcome.

At such a juncture, a peace agreement becomes a more possibility, through not without a lengthy period of working through the issues. The inevitable adjustments that will have to be made for any negotiated breakthrough, as drawn from other experiences, vary with the relative strength of each side, the quality and skills of the negotiators, the pressures brought to bear by civil society, and the influence of external actors.

What might be some of the balance points that could produce an agreement that both sides- and their constituencies- could live with? Drawing on the complex and multi-layered dynamics present in Nepal, one can discern a number of possible balance points that could be part of such overall peace agreement. Such specific resolutions of issues need to be sequenced so that the points on which agreement might be more easily reached should be dealt with before the more difficult problems to help build mutual confidence and trust as well as momentum for further progress in the negotiations.

An interim government of transition within the context of a constitutional monarchy that includes invited representation by all major political parties- including the CPN(Maoist)- at the cabinet level.

Preparation for national and local level elections by this transitional government at a date certain.

A change in the electoral law and/or amendment to the constitution that provides for representation in parliament by ethnic groups and women in some fixed proportion.

A change in the electoral law and/ or amendment to the constitution that introduces proportional representation in place of first past the post for the election of members of parliament.

The continuation of the cease fire and the code of conduct, with specific steps towards demilitarization, beginning with the withdrawal of armed forces on both sides to specific designated locations.

The disarming of rebel combatants in the context of general amnesty, the reduction in the size of the RNA and the Armed Police, and the restraining of selected ex-combatants for integration into the national army and police, with other ex-rebels offered retraining for reintegration into the national society.

Effective political decentralization that includes the principles of ethnic and gender representation, hiring and firing authority, and funding levels to ensure effective operation.

A strengthened CIAA with sufficient funding, authority and capacity to effectively implement its anti corruption mandate, thereby strengthening democratic legitimacy.

Such a set of negotiated balance would b e more likely to be achieved by both sides if there is a prior commitment by international and outside funding agencies to provide substantial new financial support to implement infrastructure and micro-development programs when a comprehensive peace agreement is reached. It is also likely that some of the more difficult steps, particularly any demilitarization and rebel disarming agreement, would need to involve the presence of a respected international entity, such as a United Nations peace keeping mission, to be able to be carried out. Finally, serious negotiations have the best chance of advancing if they remain closed and confidential, with a single individuals chosen to present general information to the media and the public.

(Courtesy: American Center, Gyaneshwor, Kathmandu)

EDUCATION AND TEACHING

Narayan Bahadur Basnet, MPA, MBBS, Ph.D.

Changing one’s knowledge, attitude, skills and behavior in an appropriate and positive manner may be termed as education. It is a continuous process. The best example of education often referred to by teachers, parents and guardians is, clay that is later transformed into potteries of various shapes and sizes. Students are just like the clay and every human is a student in some way or the other. There are several basic principles of teaching-learning processes, such as adaptation, copying, imitation, motivation, and conditioning and each of them has important role in education.

The process of civilization began since the very origin of man. Animals also learn however the time span that man spends in acquiring a certain behavior is very short and systematic than in animals. Man has controlled his natural and man-made surroundings and culture because of his high level of systematic teaching. Although man learns from experiences in spite of institutions such as schools however systematic teaching is enlightening both to students and teacher and is extremely important when we consider the limited life span of humans. Here lies the importance of formal educational institution such as schools and universities. Even today, many countries are facing educational policy problems basically due to lack of systematic thinking and practice of teaching.

Human has a special instinct to teach as well as to learn. One probably starts the teaching-learning process in the womb. A mother teaches her infants from the very beginning. Some studies showed the association of effect of various teaching stimulants such as verbal stimulation to her fetus. Teaching before and during adolescence has a fundamental effect both in his/her future life and/or achievements. A vast source of our knowledge and understanding is derived basically in a diverse nature either desirable or undesirable way. The undesirable teaching-learning process may arise from the weaknesses of human being itself, which are flexible biological organisms. These human weaknesses can only be solved by continuous, repetitive, creative education to all particularly children, who have not yet developed opinions, vision about themselves, surroundings and the universe.

Imagination, exposure, emersion, practice, patience, listening, visualization, expression, suppression are some of the fundamental processes involved in teaching, and these are very important factors in educational process. Schools and their activities should be guided based on the basis of these fundamental processes. Teaching policy should ultimately be able to develop a creative, knowledgeable, skillful, patience, progressive and civilized manpower in the society. Primary and Junior High School students have tremendous amount of capacity and learning can be instilled and stimulated with the application of international measures. One of such factors is to expose them to a teacher having a diverse perspective. Local, national and international institutions should improve their teaching policies taking into consideration these central issues in mind.

Education is fundamental in improving, maintaining, and uplifting human civilization. A positive and creative teaching-learning policy can make a better student, educator and above all a better teacher!

Key words: civilization, education, learning, policy, school, teaching

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