I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Conspiracy moves by government

Kathmandu: The sudden rekindling of the students’ problem needs to be watched. Sui Regice charges long dormant in the Nepali political context were suddenly revived to nab key leaders of all three major student organizations. The three were taken into custody from a T.U. seminar in the presence of Key University authorities after organizing a rabble rousing street demonstration.

Why the students leaders were arrested in this manner, kept in custody after presentation at court and charged in the manner they have been at this critical juncture in Nepali politics deserves serious attention also in the height of its effects.

For one thing, the month long agitation "against repression" has been lent support by the now effectively united student agitation demanding the release of those arrested. For another, the arrest is provocation, and has been, to tempt arrest on more Sui Regice grounds. Whether or not, government and its administration have the capability of rounding up the streets have been amply demonstrated by those going scot-free despite courting arrests echoing the slogans that provoked arrest in the very first place.

Although a message to our politicians that their cadres be made subject to the constitution as well as long overdue, the timing and the Sui Regice charges become suspect.

For one thing it has given back a dormant agitation its cadre. For another, it has tempted what is now a student movement that is united a ruse to court arrest by purposively dirtying the monarchy. Why now?

Specially when the leaders of the agitating parties are accusing none but the monarchy for regression and pressuring the institution to buckle under demands that suit their interpretation of the constitution, the notion that their declared student leaders are operating in tandem and launching a tirade directly at the monarchy on their own is hardly practical. More so the notion that the arrests will stop their tirade would seem equally impractical considering the possibility of a campaign courting mass arrests and the government’s limited capability to counter this politically on the streets without the use of administrative tools. Equally significant is the fact that none other than the pronounced leader of the agitation Girija Prasad Koirala declared that the coming agitation would be one where he was unable to zip the mouths of the demonstrators.

Thus come real questions. What message to whom is the government directing by making the arrests? Is it the students? Is it directed t their political mentors? Or is a government on the actually aiming elsewhere through the reaction that predictable to a lay person from a ricochet?

Nepal-India Economic Cooperation seminar:
Cultural proximity is no guarantee of friendship

-Dr. Prakash Chandra Lohani, Finance Minister

Kathmandu: Surprising though it may appear, the fact is that as and when the RPP is in power, the party has dared to ventilate her inner feelings pertaining to Nepal-India relations.

However, what is also for sure is that as and when the RPP while in power has managed to do, the party’s government have had to see a collapse.

Perhaps remaining undeterred by the "things-to-happen" come what may, the RPP’s leader and the incumbent Finance Minister Dr. Prakash Chandra Lohani, on Sunday, told India in no certain terms that if she were to receive tangible support from Nepal, she ought to exhibit concerns also for Nepali grievances.

Dr. Lohani’s statement came at a Nepal Council of World Affairs organised seminar on Nepal-India Economic Cooperation that was supported by B.P.Koirala India-Nepal Foundation on 21 December, 2003.

The speech made by Dr. Lohani who was concurrently holding the chair of the Prime Minister in Prime Minister Thapa’s absence apparently jolted the Indian side present on the occasion.

The Indian establishment in Kathmandu which presumably was not used to listen to such subtle diplomatic comments against her and that too from a personality of Dr. Lohani’s stature must have understood the Nepali sensitivities.

Dr. Lohani made it amply clear that not only India, Nepal too had her genuine national interests to be taken care of. He hinted that " each country irrespective of its level and ranking in the power hierarchy can be expected to have what could be called as a national interest-set that it would like to achieve".

According to Dr. Lohani, four crucial elements that determined the structure of relationship between any two countries which were, for example, political; economic; security and cultural.

"Cultural proximity is no guarantee of friendship", stated Dr. Lohani. In saying so Dr. Lohani apparently indicated that harping on age-old cultural proximity in between Nepal and India is not bad but then that was also not sufficient enough to guarantee a good and lively friendship in between the two countries.

To recall, more often than not, Nepal’s leaders and at times the Indian leaders wish to praise Nepal-India ties pushing this cultural factor alone. However, they prefer to remain silent to state the key role of the rest of the three key factors in the state-to-state relations.

Brushing aside the cultural proximity theory, Dr. Lohani explained that history has remained witness that nations that share the same civilizations have shown no hesitation in wasting enormous resources in trying to harm each other".

Dr. Lohani apparently hinted that the 1989 Indian economic blockade on Nepal should not have been imposed on Nepal had the Indian eztablishment considered the cultural proximity theory.

However, Dr. Lohani was all praise for India’s full commitment for Nepal’s sovereignty and independence.

A carrot for India indeed.

In the course of the lecture, Dr. Lohani also found it opportune to hint the attending scholars that Nepal even today remained a democratic state contrary to the speeches made by the leaders in the recent days.

"Both Nepal and India are democratic states that have expressed their commitment to a multi-party form of government within a constitutional framework based on the core principles that sovereignty resides on the people", is how Dr. Lohani defended his case.

In the process, Dr. Lohani subtly indicated that Nepal no more remained a land locked nation. "Nepal now is a link-nation that has direct link with two of the most dynamic economies of the world". In saying so Dr. Lohani indicated that Nepal’s economy is now also close to the economy of her northern neighbor.

He however also politely told the gathering that "a strong and prosperous Nepal is in India’s interest and vice versa". This perhaps means that Nepal will benefit if the Indian economy grew. A fact indeed.

Much to the discomfiture of Pakistan perhaps, Nepali minister on the occasion reiterated that it was time that the countries housed in the "Growth Quadrangle" worked for giving a new lease of life to the idea of the quadrangle.

To recall, Minister Lohani’s fervent appeal has come close on the heels of Pakistani Ambassador only a week ago dubbing the idea of the Growth Quadrangle as an act solely initiated to isolate Pakistan.

Pakistan maintains that the idea is the creation of New Delhi in order to isolate Pakistan. In effect, this had created a furore in SAARC member countries. Thanks the then Sri Lankan foreign minister who convinced Pakistan that it was not at all to displease Pakistan or in any manner isolating her.

On the security front, Dr. Lohani assured the Indian establishment that Nepal will ever remain sensitive towards India’s genuine security concerns. He, however, also sought India sensitivities for Nepal’s legitimate concerns.

"We are also confident that certain elements that want to destroy the multi-party constitutional system and the development infrastructure of Nepal will not be able to misuse the "hospitality" of India towards the Nepali people", added Dr. Lohani.

Implied here is that Dr. Lohani wishes to hint that Maoists were in India and could misuse the Indian hospitality by troubling Nepal.

All put together, Dr. Lohani, good or bad, spoke his mind. How India reacts to Dr. Lohani’s fresh political overtures will have to be watched.

Christina Rocca came, saw and returned confused

Kathmandu: The US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs, Christina B. Rocca, has said that this time she could notice among the major political parties a sort of "realization" of the grave threat posed to this country by the Maoist insurgency.

However she declined to comment whether the Royal Palace too had realized the gravity of the situation.

"It is important for the democratic forces to deal with the Maoists threat as it is a common to threat to all", said Rocca to a select group of Nepali media men at the residence of Constance Colding Jones, the Public Affairs Officer of the US Embassy in Kathmandu last week.

Evaluating the present political scenario, the US dignitary opined that there was the need that constitutional monarchy and the country’s major constitutional political parties reconciled with each other.

Touching upon the raison d etre of her Nepal trip, she said that such timely trips enables Washington to formulate policies that go in favor of the people of Nepal who have been facing immense hardship and struggle.

"Democracy should come to the rails", said Rocca, however, she remained tight lipped when asked to comment on whether the present set up were a "representative" or an "unrepresentative" one?

Nevertheless, she was optimistic from her talks with the Indian Ambassador. She apparently had met the Indian envoy to get the minds of the Indian establishment vis-à-vis the Maoists alleged to be taking shelter in India.

"I am convinced that India will henceforth will be forthcoming", said a beaming Rocca who presumably remains confident that unless India mediated the government-Maoist affair, the insurgency will not come to an end.

Surprising though it may appear to Kathmandu’s political watchers, well after Rocca’s famous meet with Ambassador Shyam Saran, the latter has changed his tones on matters relating to the Maoists.

That Shyam Saran is changing his tones becomes clear from his recent hint that should he be provided proper information, he could even nab Baburamji or Prachandaji. All that India needed was exact information of the whereabouts of the Maoists leaders, is what Ambassador assured Nepali media men the other day.

The fact is that the Indian establishment got pretty annoyed and felt embarrassed by Madhav Nepal’s much publicized Lucknow trip which sent different signals to different democratic countries of the globe.

"Rocca could have told the Indian ambassador that India now stands exposed and hence she must have forcefully convinced the Indian envoy that it was time that India exhibited its generosity and magnanimity in sorting out the issue of the insurgency", political scientists conclude.

Presumably, looking at the ever growing dimension of the Nepali insurgency and the chaos in politics,, said Rocca, Nepal had become a critical country with the potentials to destabilize the already unstable regional stability".

She nevertheless gave an impression to the Nepali media that the United States were in full support of the constitutional monarchy and that the US support to the Nepali army would continue in the future as well.

"You can’t equate the killings carried out by the Maoists with those of the Nepali army", explained Rocca. In her opinion, the RNA’s killings were not deliberate ones, however, the killings from the other camp were different. She, however, told that RNA has been told in clear terms that the US would wish to see the RNA men carrying their duties without violating the stipulated and established norms of Human Right situation.

Intervening in the discussion, US Ambassador Malinowski revealed that the US assistance to Nepal now stood to the tune of 40 million dollars from 24 million.

Asked where this money will go, Rocca made it clear that it would be spent on health, anti-corruption activities, conflict resolution, good governance and the likes.

"I hope the money reaches the targeted area", said Rocca. She hastened to add that the US support were a conditional one.

Now that Rocca has left for her country, nevertheless, what is being speculated here is that the United States and the members of the European Union differ on how to deal with the Maoists insurgency.

One side prefers to go forcefully but yet pleads for the resumption of the stalled peace-talks with the Maoists. The other camp gives an impression that first talks should resume at the earliest and then if the Maoists are convinced then one could demand laying down their arms.

The US and the EU differ visibly, which is confusing the Nepali intelligentsia. That the two differ sharply gets reflected at the sidelines of diplomatic receptions.

But what is more than reassuring is that the US, the UK, India and the entire EU members wish the early resumption of the talks with the Maoists. The diplomats of these countries also hint that it would be an act of wisdom if the government as the guardian invites the other camp for peace-talks.

The media men who were present to listen to Christina Rocca provided the US dignitary their own wholly partisanised views of the Nepal events, which must have confused Christina Rocca. Some praised the King and his moves; some exhibited themselves more democrat than Abraham Lincoln; others felt the need to go in for elections to bring the constitution and derailed system to order and the rest opined that the political parties must reconcile with the King and vice versa if the country were to restore its normalcy. These diametrically opposing views must have come as a bolt from the blue to the American minister. Admittedly, Rocca must have concluded that unlike the political parties, the Nepali media too remained divided for obvious political reasons.

Wisdom demands the students being freed

Kathmandu: Students are up against the monarchy and have become more vocal than ever before.

Whether Thapa’s government should have come heavily down against the agitating students or should have hush-hushed the matter could be a matter of discussion among the experts on legal matters and academicians. However, what is important to note as to whether the timing of such an action against the student was opportune or not?

It was certainly not an opportune moment, opine analysts.

"The Thapa government has, rightly or wrongly, irritated the students and will have to pay heavy prices", say intellectuals adding that it would have been wise on the part of the government had it allowed the students to make loud speeches which ultimately would have faded automatically.

The intelligentsia hasten to add that the political leaders when they themselves failed to garner support for their agitation from the laymen apparently provoked the students to take up the lead.

This is a wrong method acquired by the political parties but then since it has already begun, the government of Thapa has invited troubles for itself, say neutral observers.

Political watchers express their anger over the lenient stance acquired by Thapa set up towards the political leaders now in agitation who have been criticizing the monarch in no good words than are now being uttered by the students.

In effect, the Thapa regime should have taken to task the main actors behind the scene, say observers.

Be that as it may, the situation in Kathmandu and elsewhere in the country on Tuesday remained overly tense. The worst happened when supposedly the army came to the streets to quell the students’ demonstrations.

If Tuesday’s two way clash were any indication then what could be fairly said that the situation in the country will slide further with the possibility of greater ramifications.

A meet of the agitating parties Tuesday has denounced the army coming down to the streets in order to contain the threat posed to the security of the country. They have also vowed that they will back the student agitation to the hilt come what may.

Wouldn’t be it wise that the establishment in Kathmandu freed the students now in custody facing Sui Regice charges? It’s up to the government to decide.

Meanwhile, NC President has formed a sort of Militant Commando from among the active members of his party so that the commando come to the rescue of the leader under the attack of the establishment.

This means that Koirala will not settle for less than forcing the King to yield for in his eyes it is the King who has to correct the constitutional aberrations which came into existence after His October 4 moves.

Madhav Nepal appears slightly having rather polite towards the monarchy. Outwardly though he is talking the same as is being pronounced by Koirala. However, the fact is that Madhav Nepal made it clear that his party affiliated students have been told not to raise voices against constitutional monarchy. On the contrary, Koirala’s instruction to the students’ appear different.

Here lies the significance of the two different instructions issued by two different leaders to their two differenmt student wings.

The gist is that, as rumors have it, Madhav Nepal is already in his National Dress to see the King. Rumors also have it that after Mr. Nepal, it would be Koirala who would be granted audience.

Analysts in Kathmandu wonder as to what Koirala and Madhav Nepal will have to say the King at time of the much sought audience? Plead for correcting the constitutional aberrations? Or a plea to the King that they be made prime ministers?

But how they will save their faces if they are made the country’s prime minister through the use of the same controversial article 127? Is it that if they were the prime ministers, the "untouchable" article 127 will become just the otherwise?

Even if Thapa is told to resign or is even sacked by the King, the King will have to use the same article 127 to elevate either Mr. Nepal or Koirala’s ranks to the post of the prime minister.

Should this also mean that the moment they are the prime minister, the student will begin praising the monarchy ?

So many questions will have to be answered by Mr. Nepal and Mr. Koirala if the King elevates them to the rank for which they were almost dying.

Be that as it may, the King too should understand the gravity of the ever deteriorating political situation and act accordingly. What is the harm in granting audience to Koirala or Mr. Nepal if that audience brings positive changes?

Janakpur: High on the agenda of Thai tourists

Kathmandu: Shital Nivas sources say that high placed officials of Nepal and Thailand will be meeting at the end of January next year.

This would be the fourth joint meeting to be held in Kathmandu between the Nepali and Thai authorities.

However, sources opine that Nepal is yet to arrive at an agenda to be put to the perusal of Thai officials at the impending meeting.

Sources close to Thailand say that Thailand would be more than pleased to support Nepal through package tourism provided Nepal acted honestly and promptly.

The idea, according to non-governmental sources, is to bring in the Thai tourists to Janakpur—the seat of Mahajanaka.

To recall, Janakpur, a town in eastern Nepal, got extra prominence in Thailand when a story on the ancient King of Janakpur, Janaka, was published in Thailand.

The book became a hot-cake as it was penned noneless than the King of Thailand itself.

However, the Thai authorities seek some sort of assurance from Nepal’s civil aviation authorities that the Thai tourists thus visiting Janakpur apart from Lumbini should get connecting flight to return to Thailand.

"If the mode of transportation is guaranteed to the Thai tourists by the Nepali side, Nepal can become both a tourist and holy destination for the people of Thailand.

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