I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Thapa expensive as he digs in!

Kathmandu: Pressure is on against the monarchy. Having provoked students’ to join the agitation, government must brace itself for a crowd-swell on the streets contributed by firstly, agitating schoolteachers and then by other professional organizations which are largely partisan. In an attempt at desperation, government belatedly announces the promise of cabinet expansion, which is, if at all it materializes, likely at best to perfunctory. The fact is that the cabinet of Surya Bahadur Thapa has been proven as bluff. The repercussions on the monarchy are severe.

Nonetheless than the monarchy recognized the need for parties’ represented in the dissolved parliament to endorse its actions of October 4, 2002, in order to ride the nation through the current constitutional jeopardy. The political parties which contributed to the mess in the very first place were expected to demonstrate the same crass-partisanship to prevent the initiative from going to the King and so attempted to dictate their own terms on the monarchy. This was expected what was expected also, however, was a definite public demonstration that things would not be allowed to return to the previous mess. While the cabinet of PM Lokendra Bahadur Chand resigned because it was slow in giving the public impression, PM Thapa’s cabinet has virtually returned the state to the previous position politically.

It is not surprising that Thapa has made some administrative gains. But the public are aware that this was his forte and whatever gains he has made is on account of his direct appointment by the king. Bu the promise of political participation that was made on his appointment has boomeranged and the monarchy is left holding the fort. This has been expensive.

Clearly, one must wonder whether this was done through design. The streets are heating up and the political parties are cashing in on the seemingly deliberately provoked situation. One can thus expect their taking advantage of the lack of motion at the government level which is likely to encourage opposition activities on he streets- something that the political parties had been attempting over past eleven months of declared agitation.

All things thus to a change and none less than the government is aware of this. Unfortunately, too transparent political schedules allow uncomfortable time lapses. It appears that the SAARC summit in Islamabad prolongs the Thapa Cabinet by which time the agitation may too be prolonged. And so one can’t but anticipate further provocation moves with similar questionable designs until then.

Thapa is a sinking horse now; Students’ come to rescue of political parties

Kathmandu: The five parties now in agitation against what they call "regression" appear that they will not settle for less than forcing the King to yield.

The King is silent though he too appears in a mood to devise a formulae that could save the face of the both: agitating parties and the King. But then yet those who have been meeting the King in the recent days, both national and foreign personalities, including Christina Rocca, the Assistant Secretary of State, state that the King in their conversation is all for strengthening of the democratic system and that he would not be any sort of impediment to the pattern of governance in the country which the nation embraced for itself as back as in 1990.

The King’s assurances does not tally with his political overtures, comment the agitating parties for whom the continuance of the same must have become a heavy burden.

Thanks the students affiliated to their political paraphernalia have come to their rescue. Had it not been so, the agitation of the political parties, now in its tenth phase, would have fizzled out easily.

The government under Thapa added fuel to the fire to the students’ agitation by arresting the three top student leaders. In fact, analysts agree, if the government would have not taken seriously the students’ utterances, the students would have not been able to take to a new height to their agitation. Since the government took action on them, there has been a reaction to that.

The net result has been that statements, utterances, lectures that are being made by the leaders and the students all were directed against the Nepali monarchy.

Nepali monarchy is obviously under tremendous pressure, by default indeed.

The students now appear vocal against the monarchy than their top-hats handling their own party-organizations. For the political parties, the students coming to the streets and their shouting of slogans against the monarchy has become a handy tool to pressurize the King to their demands. This situation has also come for the political leaders a boon in disguise. The government of Thapa is helpless in the sense that it can neither arrest the students enmasse nor can tolerate their some what "yet unheard" slogans against the monarchy.

On the contrary, the students’ appear to be in a mood to irritate the government with more such slogans so that the latter comes heavily down against them so that they in turn could create more problems to the government and the monarchy as well.

The King’s hands appear to be tied. Neither he can sack Thapa at this juncture nor he can bless him any more. For the King apparently understands that sacking Thapa at this period would sent wrong signals at the impending SAARC Summit. He also presumably understands that Thapa’s continuation in the current post would cause more damage to the institution.

Analysts, therefore see a change immediately after Thapa returns upon attending the Islamabad SAARC Summit scheduled to be held in the early days of next year. Analysts also opine that the King has reasons to sack Thapa for the Prime Minister has summarily failed in discharging key instructions provided to the prime minister. He has neither been able to invite political participation from the agitating parties nor has been able to bring the Maoists to talks. Given this situation on ground, what is the raison de etre of having a sick Prime Minister that does more harm than good to the nation and the institution of the monarchy.

On another plane, what is boggling the minds of the Nepali intellectuals is that how come the five parties’ now in agitation could switch their allegiance from their acceptance of the constitutional monarchy to republicanism? How come the political parties could talk of a republican state in Nepal which practically tallies intoto with the demands of the Maoists? What factors, analysts say, could have provoked the political parties to go in for a demand that they till the other day rejected summarily?

Is it a bargain? Is it a threat to the monarchy? Is it a signal to the monarchy that if the traditional institution did not heed to their demands would bring them all more closer to the Maoists? Is it a sort of pressure on the monarchy?

The fact is that the political parties apparently do not subscribe to the views of the Maoists till todate, but what is for sure is that they just wish to send signals that if their hands are ties might provide them ample leverage to go in for a search of some other options that might not be in the overall interest of the institution which they would wish to retain for long.

Matured political analysts maintain that the political parties by initiating talks on republicanism too had derailed themselves from their admitted and avowed constitutional commitments. This means that if the King has, for example, made a mistake on constitutional grounds, they too appear to have said good-bye to their own accepted convictions.

Be that as it may, surprising though it may appear, the political parties in agitation have begun talking of republicanism well after Madhav Nepal made a much "publicized secret trip" to Lucknow. Is it a mere coincidence or has it some meaning underneath? The significance of it all lies presumably here.

It is not surprising therefore that yet another UML stalwart, Ishwar Pokhrel, is currently on a tour to India. Is it Lucknow again? Could this trip be taken as a continuation to the Madhav Nepal’s sojourn to India?

The UML sources say that Mr. Pokhrel was on a tour to India to attend a sort of meeting sponsored by students residing there.

The RPP establishment is against its own prime minister which brings them closer to the five agitating political parties. The five parties, by default or otherwise, appear close to the demands of the Maoists. This is intriguing indeed if not absurd.

Logic demands that the institution of the monarchy will benefit immensely from its friendly ties with the now agitating parties. By all means, Prime Minister Thapa is already a "sinking-horse" indeed.

Is India changing her stance? Perhaps yes

Kathmandu: Neighboring India is presumably not happy with UML leader Madhav Nepal’s "much publicized" secret trip to Lucknow.

That India is not at all happy with Mr. Nepal’s (mis)adventure got reflected some days ago when India’s Ambassador to Nepal, Shyam Saran, appealed the Nepali leaders not to misuse the Indian territory for such meetings with the Maoists leaders.

That India is really unhappy with Madhav Nepal, politically speaking, came to light when India’s foreign minister talking to Nepal television, Monday, said that his trip to Lucknow has definitely in his own words "embarrassed" India.

Foreign Minister Yaswant Sinha did hint that Madhav Nepal in doing so had done tremendous damage to India. However, he hastened to add that such events could take place because of the "open border" system in between Nepal and India.

The frank admission by two Indian authorities assumes great significance for two reasons.

Ambassador Shyam Saran expressed his anger over Nepal’s clandestine trip to India around time when the US Assistant Secretary of State, Ms. Christina B. Rocca, was about to land in the Nepalese capital.

The same India concern was expressed nonelessthan Indian Foreign Minister, Yashwant Sinha, after Christina Rocca completed her trip to Nepal.

However, what is common in the two statements is that both do talk about Madhav Nepal and his trip to Lucknow and both more or less arrive at a conclusion that Madhav Nepal in doing so did what was not expected of him politically. What is more common in them is that both have made their revelations around time of Rocca’s Nepal visit. But then yet both dismiss the event pushing the open border system in between the two countries.

Better late than never, India apparently at the highest level now has begun to think over Nepali insurgency.

" I am now convinced that India will extend her support in this regard", is what Rocca said to a select group of journalists recently in Kathmandu. This she said to the Nepali press upon her exclusive meetings with India’s Ambassador while being in Nepal.

Not surprising therefore that India’s foreign minister now says that "if the Nepali authorities pass on information to our government, we will even catch and repatriate the Maoists".

Should this mean that the Maoists in India, if at all they were there, now remain prone to Indian wrath? That they are becomes amply clear from Minister Sinha’s expression when he says that "helping Maoists means encouraging the MCC and PWG".

If it is so then the Nepali Maoists must devise yet another scheme to remain safe. Certainly, one would be to resume the talks. If they do so, will definitely send a sort of relief to the Nepali population and others as well. Nepali population will pleasingly embrace their own revolutionary brethren if they are back in their own homeland and contribute to the process of nation-building.

Be that as it may, Nepali analysts beg to differ politely with minister Sinha’s some comments made pertaining to Nepal-India bilateral ties.

At one point he does admit that there have been some "issues" in between the two countries but not "differences" as such. The issues, as per minister Sinha could well be sorted out through "negotiations".

Analysts say that when there are issues then it should mean that the issues in question must have arisen out of differences. Logically speaking, if there is the absence of differences, there would not be issues to debate or to discuss or even to argue.

Analysts point out that Nepal "differs" clearly with India on so many counts; namely, the Mahakali issue; the 1950 issue; the border encroachment issue; the dam construction issue; the Kalapani issue; on extraditing the third country nationals issue and more or less Nepal differs on India "prescription" on how Nepal should move politically.

These were some of the issues which have culminated into sharp differences which albeit demand debate, discussions and enough arguments and then finally warrant a mutually beneficial "negotiations".

However, what could not be contradicted with the ministers assertion that negotiations were ultimately needed to sort out the "issues" wherein we "differ" politically.

When issues crop up means that certain differences must have come up. To sort out the differences, one has to take the help of negotiations.

Analysts opine that Nepal and India must now admit that we have some differences on some counts which demanded "negotiations" as suggested by Minister Yaswant Sinha.

Be that as it may, analyzing minister Sinha’s television talk what could be concluded is that India is slowly but steadily changing her stance on so many counts including those on the Nepali insurgency.

What if India mediates in between the government and the rebels?

Analysts in this paper prefer not to dismiss the idea outrightly. This is what had apparently been conveyed to Nepal by India’s former foreign secretary Kawan Sibbal while making a lecture he made long time back in Paris at some International studies center, if one were to recall.

Madhav Nepal still hopeful of a compromise

Kathmandu: Girija Prasad Koirala is now a frustrated man but yet he doesn’t lack the needed energy to warm up the streets.

So is Comrade Madhav Nepal.

Comrade Nepal has reasons to be unhappy with the scheme of things that have developed here after his Lucknow trip.

Firstly, he is not a consensus candidate for the prime ministership as agreed upon by the five agitating political parties at time of the beginning of their agitation against what they call, regression.

Secondly, his political bond with the Indian establishment has weakened as his secret trip to Lucknow has boomeranged on him. None less than India’s foreign minister Yashwant Sinha made this revelation only on Monday.

Thirdly, he is apparently not in the good-book of the palace for his intermittent threat loaded statements being made against the institution of the monarchy. This presumably caps the possibility of Madhav Nepal being elevated to the ranks of the nation’s Prime Minister. Albeit only if a miracle happens in his favor.

But then yet Madhav Nepal is not a personality who will stop playing games.

That he is playing a game both with the agitating parties and with the palace as well becomes clear from his fresh utterances wherein he is forcefully saying that he is "with" the agitators and concurrently appealing the King to come to the terms with the agitating parties. His appeal to the King is definitely polite. He then concurrently warns the King not to dismiss the role of the agitating parties as is being given to understand.

This is not all.

Even, one of the Maoists’ top-hat, Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai too appears not that happy with his own party’s functioning these days. Or else why he should have hinted on the Party’s On-Line Internet edition dated 22 December that "a set of Maoists’ own men appear to be in a mood to take up a new role of the rulers which time permitting might give birth to a new counter-revolution from within the party itself as against the ongoing revolution" (literal translation only-Ed)

If Dr. Bhattarai’s expressions were taken in its face value then what comes to the fore is that the insurgency has already developed a sort of fissure and that the insurgency is prone to a split provided the attitude of a section of the Maoists leaders’ continue to be what has been hinted by internationally acclaimed architectural engineer turned Maoist leader, Dr. Bhattarai.

This means that all is not well inside the insurgency. Dr. Bhattarai’s written statement has come at a time when the insurgency is being talked by a section of the Nepali press as to be on the verge of a vertical split for varied unexplainable reasons.

This notwithstanding, the other camp whom Dr. Bhattarai alleges to have been exceeding their functions is yet to contradict the allegations.

Matured political analysts maintain that whatever happens inside the insurgency should not be a matter of concern to others as it is exclusively a matter to be sorted out by the rebel leaders only. However, what should really concern us is the question as to when the rebels come to the talks. Who brings them to the talks? How they should be brought to the table? Do we need any foreign support in this regard? And finally which force on earth could patch-up the differences in between the "old" and the "new" regime?

We have had, say analysts, enough killings on both the sides. It is time that wisdom prevailed on both the two warring rivals.

Is the government listening? Are the leaders of the insurgency listening to our SOS call?

Nepal granted full membership of BIMSTEC

Kathmandu: Nepal is to enter into yet another powerful regional grouping, the BIMSTEC, beginning next year.

BIMSTEC comprises of countries like Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Srilanka and Thailand.

Sources at Thailand Embassy in Kathmandu say that the BIMSTEC organization is to provide its full membership to Nepal at its February 9, 2004, meeting scheduled to be held in Fuket, Thailand.

Senior economists in Nepal say that Nepal’s entry into the BIMSTEC bodes well for this country as Nepal now could have its access upto ASEAN through BIMSTEC.

To recall, Nepal until now had been granted the status of an "observer" only in the BIMSTEC.

Preparations are underway in Thailand to greet Nepal as one of the full members of the BIMST Economic cooperation.

Coinciding with the BIMSTEC impending meeting in Thailand, a Youth Football Tournament is being held in Thailand which will see the participation of youth footballers from all the BIMSTEC member countries including now Nepal.

The football tournament is to begin from 3rd February, which will last till the 9th of the same month.

The Fuket meeting of the BIMSTEC is talked to concentrate itself on how to expand economic cooperation between and among the members of the BIMSTEC.

"It is up to Nepal now to exploit this golden opportunity by being in the comity of BIMSTEC", opined a senior economist associated with the Tribhuban University.

The BIMSTEC will endorse the entrance of Nepal and Bhutan as its full member.

BIMSTEC will henceforth will take the form of BIMSTNB-EC.

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