I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Who will hinder the Government-Maoist talks?

Kathmandu: Predictably national media reflected the stunning and sudden news of agreements on a cease-fire and talks between the government and the Maoists. The most outstanding feature of this development was the virtual bypassing of the established political parties and the long present middle-men. Predictably, thus, uproar has begun from these quarters fearing the loss of political credibility in what is now the actual political mainstream. The results of this have yet to be fully assessed.

The Congress-Girija has thus understandably perhaps begun haggling over the "meeting of the guns" in the agreement of talks. It is another matter that the agreement preconditions the laying down of those very guns.

The UML involved in a very fractious general convention has also expressed reservations on being bypassed in the agreement. The fact that they chose to be outside the government and that it is the government that must do the talking with the rebels is lost in their statement.

Perhaps understandably it is Sher Bahadur Deuba whose initial talks failed who has come forth more positively on the recent breakthrough. His reading is that the Maoists were cowed into the agreement.

Whatever, the talks are to be held and the widespread public relief at this government achievements is permeable.

Focus thus must shift at the numerous reservations and aspersions being cast at these sudden developments and, then, the real hindrances to the real success of the talks begin emerging. The vested interests developed over the years on the Maoists issue must then need scrutiny. The numerous middle men that have emerged on this very account merit focus. Roles have been bypassed. They will be asserted.

Cease fire declaration; bolt from the blue to the UML and Congress

Kathmandu: Nepal’s politicians who had been swinging the country’s politics their way all along these thirteen traumatic years have fallen flat.

All those self proclaimed messiah of Nepali politics-the self-claimed real representatives of the "we the people", have suddenly found their role missing.

Those who had been misleading the country and its people for all along these democratic years specially after the dawn of the democratic system in the country have been denied their political role which they had been expecting in effect.

The fact is that the leaders belonging to the established parliamentary parties have totally been bypassed by the incumbent Chand establishment while brokering peace with the Maoists rebels.

More specifically speaking, the constitutional monarch’s subtle diplomacy which he apparently played in the past weeks with proper sophistication brought the Maoists to the fore and managed a long awaited truce in between the two warring rivals that is the government’s security forces and the Maoists insurgents.

The cease-fire that was simultaneously announced both by the Maoists and the government last week came not only as a surprise to the Nepali congress and the UML but these two parties were also taken aback upon listening to the declaration of the said cease fire.

It came for them all as a bolt from the blue. Understandably, the leaders of these two parties felt the soil under their feet shaking which was only but natural.

The congress led by Girija Prasad and the UML headed by Madhav Nepal saw a "threat" to Nepal’s democracy because the truce thus arrived at had no representation from their respective sides at the government-Maoists talks..

Since it had no representation of neither the congress nor of the "established parliamentary parties" at the talks, the outcome could be a ploy in between the Palace and the Maoists to side line their parties.

In effect, the Congress under Girija and UML under Madhav have taken the cease-fire announced by the two warring arch rivals as a bitter pill. Neither they can swallow it nor could throw it away outrightly.

These two parties can’t swallow it because they smack foul in the whole affair. Equally true is that they can’t throw it for fear of the public resentment which has been longing for this since long.

Thus both apparently have decided to accept the cease fire half-heartedly and this is their compulsion. Neither they can denounce the outcome nor they can accept it in its totality. This means that the role that they were summarily denied by both the parties agreeing to the cease fire would very much wish to be a part in the rest of the processes and procedures that would guarantee a permanent peace in the country.

But the moot question is: why they were denied their role in the entire preliminary talks that led to the announcement of the cease fire? It is this question wherein the two political parties should concentrate their attention.

Our own analysis bring these points to the fore. The Maoists might have concluded that it is these two political parties that in one way or the other which at one time or the other disturbed the peace process. For the congress under Koirala never considered the Maoists issue as a political one and at best wished to crush their insurgency declaring them as terrorists. The fact is that Koirala was the one who ever wish to confront the insurgency with "force". The Maoists apparently must have taken into account. But a clever Maoists at times gave fillers to Koirala that they were close to him so far as he differed with the working styles of the monarch. However, this was not true. Koirala was only lured.

As regards the UML, the Maoists had a clear strategy. The insurgency knew that the UML considered their insurgency as a competing force and hence the UML would never wish the insurgency enter into the main political stream. This was a fact. To recall, the UML ever dilly-dallied the offer of talks with the Maoists fearing that the Maoists entry into the country’s body-politic would ultimately damage their election prospects. However, the Maoists always hinted the UML that politically they were apparently closer to each other comparatively speaking.

As regards the King, the insurgency could have concluded that since the King assumed executive authority at the moment and hence a direct talk with the monarch would yield positive results which would later pave the way for a broader dialogue wherein they could push their demands for a constituent assembly. To recall, of late the insurgency exhibited its interest for the talks that included the King’s representatives. Here lay the significance and meaning which apparently the UML and the congress leaders minimised. In effect the King was ever active in bringing the insurgents to the table which gets now confirmed with this new and sudden development.

Exactly this is what has happened.

It was a very clever strategy acquired by the Maoists quarter from the very beginning.

In effect the Maoists gave an impression to major political forces, including the monarchy, that they were with them and in the process swinged the country’s politics in a manner they wished. The fact is also that the political forces nurtured the impression that the Maoists were closer to them than rest of the forces.

Be that as it may, since the cease fire has already been declared, it would be in the fitness of the things to cooperate in the processes and the procedures that will commence soon in order to guarantee permanent peace in the country. Any one who would hinder the peace process would be considered as a traitor.

Who brokered cease fire?

Kathmandu: Things began rolling in positive direction around the time of King Gyanendra’s Biratnagar trip early last month.

To recall, the Maoists insurgency had declared January 3, 2003 as Mechi and Koshi zone Bundh apparently with a desire to disrupt the King’s would be felicitation program there on that very particular day.

Back in Kathmandu, the Chand government considered it opportune to negotiate with the Maoists leaders and it was apparently decided to send a letter straight in the name of Comrade Prachanda hinting him that the establishment was ready for talks and that the government needed response from the other camp at the earliest.

The government apparently sent the letter on January 1 to Prachanda and hoped that the letter will have its positive effect on the King’s scheduled trip to Biratnagar

A pretty tired of violent activities that had been continuing for long and that considering the consignments of arms and weapons that were either arriving in the country or were to be delivered soon or even considering the incessant international commitments against terrorism to Nepal, comrade Prachanda appars to have concluded that it was time to attend the talks should the other side offered greater concessions.

Unconfirmed reports have it that Comrade Prachanda too responded to the letter thus sent by the government. But then it decided to address the King himself and reports have it that the letter thus sent to the monarch was dated January 23, 2003.

That the letters from both the sides were exchanged gets reflected from the fact that not a simple firecracker the Maoists fired on their declared Bundh day that had coincided with the King’s Biratnagar felicitation day. That was a significant hint from the Maoists that they took the government’s offer for talks in good faith.

The delay later seen in announcing the cease fire was apparently due to the delay in sending a response from the King to the other camp.

Whether the King himself took up the matter or instructed others to act on his behalf will come to the fore later.

Unconfirmed sources dare to divulge that the monarch utilised his Biratnagar sojourn to the hilt. In effect, the same sources claim that the present cease fire is the outcome of King’s secret meeting with some top-hats of the Maoists insurgency while he was in Itahari Army camp. Others say that this he did while he was in the Char-Ali military camp. This is yet to be confirmed. Guess works only.

Sources claim that the King convinced the Maoists leaders to come to the talks and suggested them to take up the matters of nationalism and national interests supreme at the talks.

Later comes to the scene minister Narayan Singh Pun. Minister Pun managed his talks with some leaders of the insurgency through the use of the good offices of D.R.Lamichane and Dr. Birendra Jhapali.

Sources say that minister Pun met Sagar Chetri alias Devendra Parajuli, a prominent Maoists leader affiliated to its Student grouping and convinced him of the government’s sincerity for the talks.

Yet another Maoists CC leader, Dev Gurung, with whom minister Pun managed connection is also learnt to have facilitated Mr. Pun’s mission.

Whether the King met some high ranking Maoists leaders at his Palace last week, as is being given to understand by some powerful newspapers, is still a dilemma. The Palace has denied of such a meeting outrightly. However, as events took place, it does suggest that some sort of rendezvous has taken place either straight with the King or his nominee on that fateful evening which paved the way for the announcement of a cease fire.

The Palace denies. So do the Maoists.

Be that as it may, it is less important as to who brokered peace. What is important is that a cease fire has already been declared. If it were the King himself who brokered peace, what is the harm in it? After all some one had to do it, the King has done it. Nothing to panic.

If it is not the King himself and some body else, let’s greet the sudden development which has been practically greeted by all peace loving countries of the world.

Very convincingly, it is said that Mr. Dhani Ram Lamichane and Dr. Birendra Jhapali were in constant contact with both, the minister and the Maoists leaders. The minister in turn conveyed the message to the Prime Minister who in turn passed on to the monarch himself. Other sources claim that minister Pun at times used to meet the monarch himself and received instruction on how to proceed further. What is also for sure is that the leaders of the congress and the UML who were busy in deriding at the King were totally and very surprisingly bypassed perhaps for understandable reasons.

(Analyses based on talks with various sources. The assessment made here could be a mere conjecture or very close to the truth-editor)

UML yet to digest Government- Maoist secret talks

Kathmandu: The UML is shocked.

The party of the namesake communists are fighting each other and the quarrel has gone to the extent that some in either camp, read the camps led by Madhav and Woli, appear busy in distributing fake pamphlets exposing the other for their previous mistakes albeit political ones.

Though the UML appears busy in finalizing its convention outwardly which will bring in new representatives for the party but is apparently remains shocked internally in the manner the government and the Maoists bypassed their political role while brokering a cease fire.

Most of the top hats in the UML have taken this sudden development as an act that has stripped off their role in the country’s politics. And thus describe the whole process of arriving at a cease fire as a conspiracy for sidelining the established parliamentary political parties.

The UML leaders feel cheated, more so Madhav Nepal, when the latter revealed that only ten days back comrade Prachanda had assured him that talks will be held with the government taking his party in total confidence. However, things happened just the otherwise. The cease fire was announced when the UML was busy in its convention.

A cheated UML now says that Prachanda has yet again reiterated that the proposed talks with the government will proceed seeking their proper and genuine advice.

The fact is that the Maoists lured the UML leaders making them to feel that they were closer to them politically speaking.

Back in Janakpur, Madhav Nepal appears heading towards his victory which means that he will yet again be installed by the convention as the GS of the party. However, there is a difference this time. The fact is that Madhav’s detractors, Bamdev and Woli, through their hard work have managed to push their idea of having a president at the center and further democratization of the party in its functioning.

This could be considered in a way the victory of Madhav’s detractors in that they too could now control the unrestricted powers of the GS of the party.

The party which has yet to come out from the shocks from the happening of the cease fire will certainly center its entire efforts in locating the real broker of peace and will concentrate on how to devise a way that would restrict the growing role of the monarch in the present changed context specially after the announcement of the cease fire which the party claims to be a conspiracy being hatched against the parliamentary parties.

That they will do so gets reflected from their fresh resolution wherein they say that the King must remain under the constitution and that playing politics is not a game for the constitutional monarch. This means that this party will consume much of its energy in limiting the King’s growing role in the country’s politics.

But the question again arises as to what would happen to the four party alliance formed to pose challenges to the King given the changed context? Will that proposed movement against the King will be overshadowed by the sudden developments seen in the country’s politics? Or will it go ahead as declared?

Question could also be raised as to how the King will react to those challenges? It will have also to be watched as to how the population and the civil society will react to the impending moves of the political parties and that of the King as well.

Much will also depend on how the proposed talks in between the establishment and the insurgents proceeds. By and by, what if the talks fail much the same way as it had in the previous time?

All put together, political parties, the King and the Maoists all will have a tough time in the days ahead. A slight mistake might disturb the entire peace process indeed.

It is advisable to all that they cooperate each other for what is for sure is that neither the King nor the political parties, the Maoists included, can swing the country’s politics going alone. Here lies perhaps the message.

Pakistan: A link between Central and SA

Kathmandu: The Pakistani Ambassador to the Nepali Court, Zameer Akram has said that the internal politics in Pakistan appears to be going in the right direction after the elections as various factions of the political parties comprising the present cabinet hint that they will cooperate with each other in the larger interests of the nation.

Ambassador Akram was talking to a select group of media men, and scholars at his office Tuesday evening to let the attending participants know about the recent developments in Pakistan and the region.

"Pakistan could well become a bridge in between the countries of Central and South Asia", said the Ambassador pointing to the recent agreement signed in between Turkeministan, Afghanistan and his country for establishing a gas pipe line linkage in between the countries mentioned above.

"If the countries of South Asia so desire, the pipe line linkage could also be stretched", the Ambassador continued.

If India and China can improve their strained relations, why Pakistan can not enhance its relations with Russian Federation.

Pak President Musarraf is at the moment in Russia where he is to establish linkages in sectors like energy and counter terrorism.

The Pakistani Ambassador apparently hinted that the US decision to wage a war on Iraq might put his country in an awkward position.

National | 5 Question  | Editorial | 2nd Impression | International | Past