I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Honeymoon over, Chand’s days numbered

Kathmandu:- Yet another change in government appears as imminent possibility after Prime Minister Lokendra Bahadur Chand’s 22 man cabinet faces a near unanimous allegation of non-performance in its hundred days of formation. Cabinet members, on the other hand, privately complain of a reluctant bureaucracy staffed and manipulated by previous parties while the bureaucracy has gone vocal with complaints of interference and ignorance on part of government members. At another level, as expected public demanding performance has gone public with their frustrations regarding seeming compromises in the politics of the cabinet- even the widely lauded anti-corruption campaign has been compromised, they complain.

There are grains of truths in all these charges. Yes, the government does seem to be meandering. There are elements ignorant of the bureaucracy’s functioning no doubt. Vested interests in the bureaucracy, on the other hand, would be reluctant to cooperate. Rule of law must apply in even the anti-corruption moves. All these do apply. Nevertheless, the government must move and the overall assessment is that it has been disgustingly slow at best.

The effects of such an assessments on the expected masses has in case been positive. This has been fueled by a partisan press enthusiastically playing upon the general frustrations. News is dominated by the critical opposition parties who take up the frustrations gleefully as a basis to work upon. There is not much other public activity in defense other than the speeches of which one is being asked to take too much. The public at large has more than demonstrated their expectant mood in the turn out at the Biratnagar royal rally. The party demonstrations against the royal move has been limited in participation to party-workers alone. There is considerable agitation within the party ranks at the belligerent standpoints of their leaders which even party workers complain is much removed from public reality. And, yet, there is no denying that the government has failed to cash in upon this public reality to galvanize mass support for programs which seem virtually non-existent with government.

This is what is damaging. If Badri Mandal of the Nepal Sadbhavana Party, as deputy prime minister, nurture his party under the current government, why can’t the Cabinet nurture the public. There is no parliament to restrict it. There is the King to back it. There is an opposition exhausted. And there an expectant public. The virtual absence of any program at the public level is the source of public frustration. Although a hundred days would not seem too much, this honeymoon is over. Lokendra’s days are numbered.

Neither the monarch nor the parties can afford prolonged confrontation

Kathmandu: Girija Prasad Koirala’s old-age (mis )adventure is on.

His splinter congress is continuously sending threat-loaded signals to the constitutional monarch that their "agitation" at the moment could turn into a sort of "movement" against the Royal move of October 4 should the King does not correct his, what Koirala congress prefers to call, constitutional blunders.

The King too is giving an impression that he will not deter from his "previous stands" come what may.

This is the source of a possible confrontation in between the King and the Congress led by Koirala that apparently will take a formal shape in the coming days and months.

The Koirala congress in the process of pressurizing the King to yield to their demands, which include the reinstatement of the now dissolved parliament, has begun submitting memoranda at the Office of the Chief District Officer in all the districts of the country wherein they demand the King to revert his October 4 decision. This process will continue for a few days more, say Koirala congressites.

A clever UML very reluctantly exhibited its support to the ongoing Koirala moves but then it is in the process of finalising its own 7th general convention scheduled early February next month. The UML, say informed ones, is still in the process of a "substantial bargaining" with the powers-that-be. If the bargain favor their demands, it is widely talked that the UML might leave Koirala in the cold and might join the cabinet under Chand or any one other than Chand.

In effect, this bargaining: whether or not to join the cabinet prior to the elections, has created sharp rifts in and among the UML top-hats.

Insiders of the UML say that the K.P.Woli faction which is unconditionally backed by the all-time firebrand Bamdev Gautam wishes to enter into the cabinet. The other equally competent lobby led by Madhav is opposing its declared rivals’ propositions simply because Madhav Nepal and his coterie considers his rivals views apparently influenced by the King. Furthermore, Madhav Nepal suspects the very motives of his rivals because during his absence from the country, his rival Mr. Woli was granted royal audience and hence he thinks that the idea of joining the cabinet by Mr. Woli and his supporters must have been influenced by the King.

Informed sources say that Madhav Nepal too is being told by some alien forces not to join the cabinet so that the King finally yields.

Neither the political parties nor the King have till now yielded. Nor do both exhibit their tendencies to yield which is, as already told, is the real source of confrontation.

Our own analysis in this regard is entirely different from what our professional colleagues of various shades and opinions have been writing that suits to their political needs.

Neither the King can afford a prolonged confrontation with the political parties nor the political parties can afford the same for understandable obvious reasons.

One thing is clear. If the King is pressed to the wall he would react with much greater force. Likewise, if the King reacts forcefully, what is the guarantee that the parties opposing the Royal 4 steps not seek extraneous support to take up the challenge posed to them by the monarch.

It is this situation that would be dangerous for both the parties. It is this situation where alien forces would begin playing one against the other. This is what had happened more or less during the 1990s, to recall.

UML: Big fight centers around more democracy or authoritarianism?

Kathmandu: The UML as a party is in trouble.

The source of the trouble is the impending 7th general convention to be held in Janakpur shortly and the would-be personalities who would man a UML emerging out of the said convention.

Indications are that the Janakpur convention would not only be challenging for those who wish to come to the apex body of the party but would also be pretty difficult for those as well who possess strong desire to retain their current posts even in the next new set-up.

In the process, both of the lobbies, the ones wishing to capture the apex body and the other camp which wishes to retain their command in the party as usual, have become vocal in their speeches and interviews. In the process, the newspapers affiliated to the party itself appear divided on various lobby-lines apparently hinting that they too were divided on the issue.

One party, one ideology, one target but yet various diametrically opposed views have started emanating from the UML quarters and that too at time of the general convention that does amply reflect that the party is boiling from within.

When and how the boiling point will exceed its limits will have to be watched.

Nevertheless, what becomes visibly clear is that K. P. Sharma Woli and Madhav Nepal are on a direct confrontation mood.

The bone of contention is: the UML should have democratic functioning in its proceedings or should adopt an "authoritarian" style of functioning?

Clearly, when such questions surface in a dogmatic party like the UML, one is forced to conclude that there were two sets of thinking prevalent in the UML. The first set obviously wished or needed "more democracy" in the functioning of the party whose corollary could be derived as that the UML till to day were being ruled in an authoritarian manner by those who were at the high command.

The second set obviously wished to continue the functioning of the party in a "closed" manner wherein "ideas" and "opinions" are imposed from "above". Read the high command.

This ultimately means that the two sets, one for greater democracy and the other for imposing from above, were in the forefront and that the convention in Janakpur will expose both who represent the two sets respectively.

Look at what K.P.Sharma Woli has to say in a vernacular Left weekly supposedly a mouth-piece of the UML party itself.

"Those who were at the helm of affairs of the party, wish centralised authority, and those who aork being at the grass-roots level wish people’s democracy".

Analysing what Woli says what comes to the fore is that Woli represents those who wish greater transparency and thus democracy in the party whereas those who are seated at the top of the party prefer centralization of the power.

This if further analysed brings to the fore the hidden factv that Woli as one of the leaders of the UML is not happy with what is going on in the party which he claims to be close to be a system wherein ideas and opinions were imposed from above to the grass-roots. This again means that Woli represents that section in the UML which wishes that their voices too be heard by the high command and not just the otherwise.

Madhav Nepal and his cohorts prefer a status quo in the functioning of the party machinery which mean that this lobby would wish the supremacy of the General Secretary, read Madhav Nepal, even in the next set up.

Bam Dev Gautam is the one who fortunately comes to the rescue of Mr. Woli who of late has remained vocal in demanding what Woli has been saying since long.

All in all, the fight is on in between those who champion greater democracy and those who prefer the centralised leadership.

The Janakpur convention will definitely be more than interesting to watch and analyse.

Yet another issue that has widened their rift is the post of the chairman of the party.

The Woli faction wishes that the post of the chairman be brought into effect. The other camp opposes for obvious reasons. Woli maintains that if the party does not wish to have a chairman, then what is the rationale behind keeping the post vacant?

Madhav Nepal and his lobby have yet to answer this question. Here lies the significance of the post. Clearly, the Woli faction is eyeing the post of the chairman in order to act like a check and balance should the GS of the party exceeded its functions and exhibited authoritarian attitudes in its functioning.

This also hints that the Woli faction too remains confident that the GS post will some how or the other again go to Madhav Nepal and hence their wish is to cut the size of the new GS through the use of the post of the chairman.

However, the tragedy is that Madhav Nepal and his lobby strongly oppose the idea of having a chairman for the party.

To recall, after the demise of Man Mohan Adhikari, this post remains vacant.

Comment from insurgent quaters

Kathmandu: In what could be considered as a regular bulletin of the Maoists insurgency sent apparently to all major newspapers of the country, the Maoists have for the first time forwarded their comments on the King’s Biratnagar trip.

The Volume 1, Number 43 dated January 9 bulletin has no good words for the King and his trip to Biratnagar.

Instead, the Maoists quarter believes that their sponsored bundh that coincided with King’s Biratnagar sojourn remained a grand success.

The bulletin maintains that granting royal audience to Madhav Nepal in the recent days and the latter’s taking an abrupt U turn from the proposed movement called by major parliamentary forces were all but a part of the conspiracy to weaken the forces participating in the movement.

The bulletin adds that though there has not been an encouraging trend in the political parties to jointly oppose the royal move forging total unity amongst themselves but yet the prospects for such a movement is not altogether bleak.

RPP’s self acquired mediator role in limbo!

Kathmandu: RPP is in the news.

This party of the former Panchas which is at the moment led by its newly elected Chairman, Mr. Pashupati S. Rana is in the news because it has almost vowed that this party would act like a bridge in between those who oppose the King’s October 4 moves and the King himself.

In the process, Mr. Rana met Girija Prasad Koirala and Madhav Nepal apparently with an aim to bridge the gap in between the King and the political parties.

However, Rana’s mediatory gestures appears to have gone all in vain.

Mr. Rana who the other day met Koirala tried to convince the latter suggesting him to proceed ahead in order to bridge the gap by accepting the status quo which the old man reportedly outrightly rejected.

Instead, Koirala suggested Rana to convince the King to reinstate the parliament which only would bridge the current gap in between the King and the political parties opposing the Royal moves of October 4.

"Take into confidence the King and in case the King restores the parliament, I will be the one to support your candidacy for the next prime ministership", so said Koirala to the RPP chief.

How Rana reacted to Koirala’s proposal is yet unknown but informed sources say that Rana possesses hidden ambition for the coveted post where his own party colleague is seated at the moment.

Looking at the non-performance of the incumbent prime minister, high placedsources opine that if prime minister Chand is replaced by a new face in the near future would not be a surprise at all.

However, whether Chand’s replacement would bring in Mr. Rana or any other entirely new face is very difficult to predict.

Be that as it may, president Koirala appears to have become bit flexible in the recent days. All that he needs now is the replacement of Chand’s government with the one that houses members from all the major political parties that would conduct elections and initiate dialogues with the Maoists as well. This is what the UML also wishes.

As far as Rana is concerned, he is all set to use his good offices in bringing all the potential forces together with the King so that the current stalemate comes to an end.

In the meanwhile, forces other than the RPP have begun suspecting the democratic credentials of the RPP specially after the party got Mr. Rana as its chairman.

To recall, Rana indirectly has hinted in his various speeches and interviews that the King be allowed to exercise his residual powers at times of crisis.

These expressions of Mr. Rana have forced other political parties to suspect Rana as the one who favored active monarchy to which Rana flatly rejects.

All in all, Rana is active. He is meeting political leaders of all shades in his bid to ease the already tensed relation in between the King and the political paraphernalia. Whether he bags success in his new endeavour or fails all depends on how he uses his political acumen.

For the time being, Rana appears to have failed in his mission. 

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