I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Maoists: Approaching urban war?

Kathmandu: The murder Sunday of Armed Police Chief, Krishna Mohan Shrestha, underscores several salient points which have as yet eluded public discussion. The first and the foremost of such is evidently the continuing lack of adequate information. Had the late Inspector General been adequately informed of the Maoists movement in Kathmandu, his morning walk would perhaps have been more heavily guarded and a better kept secret. This highlights the second point. How infiltrated is Kathmandu with Maoists personnel and Guns?

This is not the first time that the Maoists incidence have taken place in Kathmandu. If it was previously seemingly innocent and anonymous "bombs", the past days had seen armed attacks on individuals and even security personnel. These suggest that homework has been done on targets and the fatal Sunday incident reflects more than clearly that the targets themselves appear "unaware" of their own vulnerability.

The third point raised my the murder is whether we are approaching a new phase in the insurgency. Are we close to urban warfare? Although the presence of street barricades and police and the army inspections has existed for quite a while, the evident lack of intelligence demonstrated in the fatal incident suggest that there is no room to guess otherwise.

It is these three points that must be mulled over in order to assess our security performance of over an year of active systemic moves to combat terrorism in the country.

Both in the rural and the urban sectors combating insurgency will have to target grassroots localities and the need for information can only have its sources through local level cooperation. This would demand the presence of visible and invisible security personnel at the local levels to the extent that the grass-roots gain confidence to share and cooperate in sharing information. The fact that excessive partisan politics has corroded the intelligence machinery must be accepted as an integral part of the existing system in order for the anti-insurgency move to begin innovations in rebuilding the intelligence machine bottom-up. It is here that we seem to be going very slow.

There is no doubt also that the army was deliberately decapitated over the years in order to limit its abilities to act. But even the army has been on the move for more than a year now. Conventional strategies here, too, will have to be discarded and the emphasis must be on innovations in order for the army to catch up.

At yet another level, the police force which had gained in investment and numbers in the past years of partisanization but had been made merely defunct in its partisan use especially against the Maoists must now receive a thorough overhaul. Especially in the urban context where its presence at the ward level itself remains, Nepal'’ police force must begin policing. Information gathering at the ward level itself is a traditional police matter.

Of course, the need to spruce up Nepal’s intelligence machinery becomes a vital component of the anti-insurgency campaign. That it has severely been tampered with is in no doubt. But efforts to make corrections certainly appear inadequate in the context of the murder in the capital of an apex police personnel who now, in hindsight, was inadequately guarded in person for his morning walk.

Koirala’s ‘ultimatums’ and ‘reconciliatory’ approach go together

Kathmandu: Serving strong worded ultimatums at bigger gatherings and concurrently pushing "reconciliatory" note at a lesser crowded gatherings has become of late the hallmark of president of the splinter congress, Shri Girija Prasad Koirala.

To recall, Koirala only the other day in Birganj talking to the congress affiliated students suggested the King to come to terms with the political parties at the earliest or else face grave consequences. He went to extent in hinting the King that his days could be numbered as the monarch of the country should he wished to go alone by neglecting the key roles of the political parties now opposing the King’s October 4 moves.

Hardly he had spent twenty-four hours of his fresh warning sent in the name of the King, Koirala upon his return in Kathmandu made an entirely different statement which possessed not that harsh words for the monarch.

" To arrive at a solution to the current ailments in the country, a sort of "unity" in between the political parties and the King has become all the more urgent and necessary", said a Koirala who till the other day used to issue strong worded expressions against the King.

Why this abrupt change in his tone?

Our own analysis could be some what different than the others.

Firstly, Koirala could have sensed that serving ultimatums to the monarch would serve no purpose other than in aggravating the problems more making it more acute to handle.

Secondly, President Koirala could have analyzed that if he could be backed by a force, could be from within or even without, the same the King too enjoy making his fiery statements totally redundant in the present scheme of things.

Thirdly, president Koirala could have changed his tone considering the gruesome murder of Armed Police Chief, Krishna Mohan Shrestha by unidentified terrorists and the hints underlying in the said murder.

Fourthly, Koirala could have been advised by his coterie not to make hill out of a mole in the changed context specially after the murder of late Shrestha.

And finally, he could have himself thought it more benevolent and opportune to join hands with the King in sorting out the ailments confronting the nation since long which included the Maoists insurgency as well.

Be that as it may, some say that Koirala has no control over his tongue at time when he sees in his front quite a good gathering. This is true but his changing tone this time appears to be pragmatic in the sense that things have suddenly taken a new dramatic turn after the death of a very high ranking security personnel.

Now it remains to be seen as to how his other equally fiery members in the party take his changed tones towards the King which till the other day were almost highly confrontational with no signs of retreating back come what may.

It will be all the more significant to watch as to how the monarch reacts to Koirala’s fresh reconciliatory notes. It will also be worth noting to watch as to what impact, positive or negative, does Koirala’s changed stance would have on the rest of the political parties who have vowed only last Thursday to wage a struggle against the monarch till he corrected the political aberrations that the King’s October 4 moves brought in the constitution and also in the system now in place.

It is time, say analysts, that the civil society members too frame a decision as to which course should the nation take at this juncture that frees the country from the ailments plaguing the nation of late.

Country’s weak intelligence system benefited Shrestha’s killers

Kathmandu: The Maoists insurgency is again hitting the media headlines.

The insurgency has of late suddenly stepped up their violent activities for reasons known to them only.

To recall, only recently, Prachanda through a statement had vowed that his insurgency would not be that violent and would spare development projects from its action and that it would also refrain from killing individual personalities belonging to different political paraphernalia.

However, the fact is that the Maoists of late have not only stepped up their activities but have also created panic in the minds of the majority of the population to the extent that an individual in the country remains under constant threat of becoming the target of the insurgency.

Though the Maoists have yet to claim the murder of Armed Police Chief, Krishna Mohan Shrestha, but the government sources confirm that it was an act solely committed by the Maoists insurgents.

The Sunday killing of late Shrestha, if in reality is a deed of the Maoists then what could now be fairly concluded is that: firstly, the Maoists activists were already in the valley in numbers; that the Maoists wish to send signals to powers-that-be that if they were to attend to the proposed Maoists-Government talks, they would come to attend the same on equal basis that is with the position of strength; and that the insurgency also wishes to hint the establishment that in the meanwhile they have conserved enough strength in order to face any sort of challenge posed to them by the other camp should the talks fail; and that by killing late Shrestha they wish to indicate that any personality, who could be seated anywhere in the government or for that matter in the establishments of the security arrangements, could be easily brought under their target; and in doing so the insurgency has amply hinted that theirs intelligence is far superior to that of the establishment’s intelligence system and etc.

Be that as it may, the killing of late Shrestha does amply speak of the lapses seen in the Nepal’s intelligence system which apparently did come as an opportunity for the camp which killed Shrestha.

Surprising though it may appear, the Maoists supposedly killed Shrestha at a time when they too had or have been hinting that they too wished to attend to the talks and the government sources still claim that the killing of Shrestha would not close the door for such talks with the Maoists.

In effect, the Maoists, if they really killed late Shrestha, should have refrained from doing so. But they have done so raising fears in the minds of the informed citizenry as to whether they were serious for resuming the talks with the government.

Or is it that the Maoists camp wishes to hint the government that they would firstly shatter the morals of the men engaged in security arrangements in order to face greater challenges of the army.

Analyses could differ but what is for sure is that the Maoists in the Deuba days tried to harass the police force and now they wish to degrade the morals of those in the Armed Police force. This could be their new strategy to send offer of talks and concurrently conserving strength to face challenges of far greater degree. The strategy could also be to press the establishment for exacting greater concessions at time of the negotiations, if at all it happened.

Till penning this write-up the Maoists have yet to claim their responsibility for the killing of late Shrestha.

Helvetas Awarded

Kathmandu: Serving the population which reside in the mountains separated by high and the mighty rivers and making their difficult lives bit easier is what the Helvetas/ Trail Bridge Sub-Sector Project, TBBSP, has accomplished in its continued efforts aimed at this direction in the country.

Helvetas is a Swiss Agency which has its wing of Trail Bridge Sub-Sector project and has been serving this country since well over a decade or so by constructing trail bridges that has definitely come to the rescue of the population in the remote mountains of this country.

A good news for us all.

The TBBSP only recently received the Dubai International Award for Best Practice for the year 2002 by the UN Human Settlement Programme for its outstanding contribution towards improving the living environment.

To recall, this award is given in recognition of outstanding contributions to improve the living environment which are defined by the UN and the international community at large as successful initiatives which, among other things, have a demonstrable and tangible impact on improving people’s quality of life.

The Lalitpur based office of the TBBSP Monday organised a press meet to share its pleasure and joy with the local media men on having been able to receive this prestigious international award.

As was disclosed, the TBBSP is a joint program of HMG/N and the Swiss Agency for Development Cooperation, SDC.

On the occasion, the project manager Jan S. Roukema and program coordinator Mr. Shantanu Arjyal briefed the activities of the TBBSP.

What if the Maoists join UML and the Congress proposed agitation?

Kathmandu: The RPP headed by its new Captain Monsieur Pashupati Rana, is in a dilemma.

The dilemma revolved around whether to go alone or rejoin the six-party alliance for the restoration of the order prior to the October 4 Royal moves.

If on the one hand, the party would very much wish to support the King and his October 4 moves in order to gain confidence of the monarch, on the other the party can’t dismiss its previous alliance with other potential political players of the country in order to exhibit its "democratic" credentials.

To recall, the party’s in the said six-party alliance tentatively have dubbed the RPP and the NSP as undemocratic forces for their joining the government led by Chand which they prefer to call unconstitutional and undemocratic.

Apparently with a strong desire to regain its former democratic credentials, the party Chief Mr. Rana is reported to have met Madhav Kumar Nepal and president Koirala in his bid to convince both not to think otherwise of the party led by him.

However, Mr. Rana is supposed to have subtly hinted that though his party was all prepared to join the six party alliance to thwart the possibility of a reversal but would wish that a sort of total consensus in between the parties and the King prevailed in order to tackle the situation that surfaced after the October 4 moves.

How the UML and the Congress led by Koirala took Rana’s fresh avowal will take some time to emerge.

In the meantime, the congress led by the first officially declared "incompetent" prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba too is learnt to have indicated that his splinter congress too would join the front that time permitting will wage a movement to press the King to yield to their political demands.

This being the fresh political reality, the fact is also that the three, the UML, Cong-K and Cong-D have their demands intact.

While Koirala would wish the restoration of the now dissolved parliament, then Deuba would prefer his reinstatement as the country’s prime minister and the UML would expect an all party government that will take care of holding of the elections.

It is surprising therefore how these three diametrically opposed parties with three different demands will converge?

All said and done, the four parties have already decided to initiate the movement against the monarch. The UML has said that it would join the front after its convention concludes. RPP prefers reconciliation. NSP is in a limbo. Deuba with his meager strength is less to contribute to the proposed movement. Koirala congress appears to have changed its mood as Koirala told Monday that he would wish a sort of unity in between the King and the political parties.

The fact is also that all these political parties remain scared of the Maoists party which has already declared that the movement to be waged by the parliamentary parties will not succeed until and unless their participation was not there.

Should this mean that if invited the Maoists will join the movement proposed by the six-party alliance excluding RPP and the NSP?

But the fact is also that if the Maoists join the front, will not this grouping take over the movement and thereby pushing the main agitators to the background? There is a possibility indeed.

The congress and the UML perhaps understand this possibility better.

PA promoting suicide bombers -Israeli accusation

Kathmandu: The Palestinian daily, al-Hayat al-Jedida, the official organ of the Palestinian Authority (PA) published under the auspices of Yasser Arafat, reported last week on 21 January 2003 on a soccer tournament being held at a PA school in Tulkarm.

The student teams participating in the tournament have been named after suicide terrorists, who are responsible for the murder of dozens of Israelis, says a press release issued by the Israel embassy in Kathmandu dated.23 January, 2003.

For example, one of the teams has been named after Abd al-Basset Oudeh, the terrorist who carried out the Passover Eve Massacre at the Park Hotel in Netanya in which more than thirty Israelis were killed, adds the press release.

This carnival of incitement is being conducted under the auspices of official PA educators - among them the school principle and the PA's regional superintendent of education, continues the press note.

"This is the nature of education provided by the Palestinian Authority says the press note adding that this is also the nature of the PA reform, which while supposedly includes a cessation of incitement, is in actuality encouraging profound hatred and terrorism".

As long as Arafat's regime of terror and incitement remains in place, there will be neither genuine reform of the Palestinian society nor an opportunity for a genuine peace process", concludes the press note.

Joshi’s candidacy for Sajha Board Director

Kathmandu:The Sajha Publication is having its election for the post of Board of Directors this Saturday.

Altogether, seven aspirants are contesting the elections for this post.

Of the seven contestants, the position of Shri Krishna Prasad Joshi, we are told, remains bright.

Mr. Joshi in his appeal has pleaded fellow Sajha voters to consider his candiday for he, if elected, would remain ever duty bound in the upliftment of the publication and would also take care of the problems currently plaguing the Sajha Publications.

Mr. Joshi was born in 1996 B.S and is a M.P.A from the American University, Lebanon, Beirut.

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