I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
The crisis looms: Disturbance builds

Kathmandu: The crisis looms. It appears that both government and the Maoists posture are hardening. This bodes ill for the third round of talks, which have yet to be scheduled. There is rampant public concern on Maoist extortion of funds, which is said to have now accumulated millions for a treasury that can further fuel the stalled civil war. Government inability to check this spell doom for the new cabinet which ahs met with little response from both the agitating parties on the one hand and the Maoists on the other.

Perhaps more damaging to the heightened sense of public expectation after the King’s October moves is the lack of motion in the ousted Lokendra Bahadur Chand government and the standstill approach of the Thapa regime. At least Chand had within weeks of formation of cabinet prompted the Maoist ceasefire. Over a month after the formation of the Thapa cabinet things remain at a standstill. The agitating parties are agitating, the Maoists are mobile and are increasingly confrontational at the grassroots.

Regardless of the fact that the agitation is not making headway, the political parties concerned contribute to the mayhem further by instigating their student and professional organizations to disrupt an already disturbed civic society. The lack of direction contributes further to the chaos.

Prime Minister Thapa appears to be concentrating his activities in strengthening his organizational opportunities in the RPP and the government machinery. His well-honed administrative experience is reflected in the smooth appointments of public servants much postponed by Lokendra Bahadur Chand’s indecisiveness. Thapa is known previously too to have built a following among Civil servants on this account. However, even this will have disturbed public expectations since the civil service has been recruiting ground for Girija Koirala and so the public demand for a crack-down will have been thwarted at the executing level itself.

Clearly the looming crisis demands a strong crackdown and a public demonstration of determination which Thapa is reluctant to display. These suggest that either Thapa must go or must function. If he is to go, it should be sooner, much more soon than his safeguards are built. As yet, the public laments that Palace moves have been so ill timed as to have lost initiatives and be merely reacting to events.

Now it is Comrade Woli after Ms. Shailaja against the agitation

Kathmandu: The constitutional monarch is fortuitous, politically speaking.

This is so because he is provided a sort of shield, deliberately or otherwise, by some one from among the political paraphernalia as and when he is subjected to scathing criticisms for his October 4 moves.

Needless to say, the monarch is under stinging censure for his what the congress and the UML plus other three parliamentary parties call as "unconstitutional moves" of the last year when he dismissed the then Deuba government for failing in conducting the elections on time.

The agitation of the five parliamentary parties against the King is on and does not seem to come to a happy ending in the impending future.

The King is simply listening to the high-sounding and at times even fiery lectures made against him by leaders like Koirala, Madhav Nepal and the men housed in the five party coalition.

The fact is that the coalition itself has already developed a crack for certain political reasons which the leaders wish not to make public for fear of being humiliated by the lay men who have exhibited neither support nor disagreement to their ongoing agitation.

The crux of the matter is that the agitation is continuing sans the people and hence it is an agitation comprising of those only who one time or the other had remained in power and enjoyed political spoils and apparently wish to bounce back to power to continue the loot of the state exchequer.

To come to the point, it was Ms. Shailaja Acharya who only recently had defended the King’s appointment of the incumbent Prime Minister Thapa by stating that the agitation now being waged by the big-5 has already lost its meaning and significance for the Thapa government now is invested with the executive powers which the King had with him till the ouster of the Lokendra Bahadur Chand establishment.

She was talking sense, said analysts, but her colleagues in the party took her statement in a different manner and sought that the party penalized her for her absolutely erratic expressions which, her colleagues believed, were sufficient to weaken the agitation being waged against the King.

In fact Ms. Acharya also had ventilated her views that how could a party like the congress having adhered all along to a middle line could become the tail of the political parties who advocate republicanism?

The inner meaning of her saying was that the congress should fight a struggle on its own and instead not toe a political line adhered by communists forces. She believed that if the present agitation brought a positive result, if any, that would strengthen the communists but not the congress.

Be that as it may, Shailaja’s statements in an indirect manner must have come as a solace to the monarch who has been experiencing criticisms from the parliamentary parties since his October 4 moves.

Ms. Acharya’s might not have come to the rescue of the monarch at all, but then the timing of her statements gave one the impression that she was in some way or the other defending the constitutional monarch.

And now here is the next high profile communist leader, Mr. Khadga Prasad Woli, who has been defending the monarch though in a very subtle and diplomatic manner. Though his intentions could not be that as mentioned here, however, the fact is that Mr. Woli’s recent utterances wherein he lambasts at the agitating five that includes his own party, does suggest that he is criticizing the parliamentary parties not for nothing.

"A personality of Woli’s political stature could not do so unless he is told to do so by certain invisible forces", commented a political analyst.

Yet another political analyst maintains that Woli in criticisng the agitation of the big-5 either speaking his heart or is expressing his inner hatred what he possesses for his party leader—Madhav Nepal—whom he says has gone erratic since the Janakpur convention which, to recall, elevated the ranks of Madhav Nepal as the party’s general secretary. In effect, the Janakpur jamboree of the communists made Madhav Nepal an incarnation of the late Lyonid Breznev of the bygone Soviet era.

Whether Madhav is acting like the late Breznev or not is a matter that could and should be best left to the party activists to decide on their own, but the fact is that since then, read after Janakpur convention, Madhav Nepal’s political overtures have been paining senior leaders like Woli and B.D.Gautam and many others. Sources close to Woli and Bamdev say that Madhav Nepal these days prefers to confront his archrivals even his colleagues who differ with him come up with positive proposals that if brought into effect could give a democratic image to the party.

Woli and Bamdev are the ones who demand "democratization" in the party. This means that the party is being run under adhoc decisions more so the party is running under the whims of the party leader—Madhav Nepal.

The Madhav group rejects this allegation summarily.

This time Woli differs with Koirala. He refutes Koirala’s observation that if the King so desires can reinstate the now dissolved parliament through the use of the Article 127 itself.

" Is Koirala democratizing further the institution of the monarchy when he expects the King to use article 127 to reinstate the parliament?", asks Woli.

In saying so Woli apparently means that if the King is allowed to use article 127 for the revival of the parliament would mean that the King is pushed to commit yet another unconstitutional move.

Woli is talking sense but Koirala who in himself is no less than a constitution will definitely with Woli’s assertions.

Woli this time has visible come up against his own party leader-Madhav Nepal. In effect Woli in a satirical vein talks of Madhav Nepal applying for the post of the Prime Minister a month back.

"I will have never done so, come what may," opined Woli the other day.

He however has suggested that the agitating five parties must now abandon their agenda and directionless agitation which, he considers, nothing but a ploy to bargain with the King for power.

"It is these political leaders who brought the nation to this chaotic state, and look it is these very political parties and their leaders who are crying foul today", lamented Woli.

Woli also bluntly said that the agitation will never come to a happy landing and enjoy mass support unless the corrupt leaders leading the agitation were kicked out.

Summing up, the King must have found a good soul in Woli who knowingly or unknowingly been defending the moves of the crown.

However, this doesn’t mean that he is all and all in favor of the King’s moves.

Has Comrade Woli become a rebellion? Is he apparently taking the sides of the monarch to take revenge with his archrival—Madhav Nepal? Will he succeed in securing political benefits from his current changed postures? Should this mean that the agitation launched by the big-5 will go to the dogs ultimately? Time will tell.

Prachanda has carrot and stick both in his fresh statement

Kathmandu: Comrade Prachanda appears to have become excessively restive.

He has reasons to be so for he considers that any further delay in the resumption of the talks with the government might place their insurgency in a tight position from where they can’t extract political concessions to the extent they wish at the moment.

Comrade Prachanda presumably concludes that if the talks were to begin in a day or two would mean that their insurgency will attend the talks with a "position of strength" that will allow his "new regime" to deal with the "old regime" on a basis of equal strength of the two armies with guns.

That he is pretty worries with the "unnecessary" delay seen in the talks gets reflected from his fresh statement released the other day wherein he appeals all members of the society to press the establishment to resume the talks.

That he is desperate for talks despite his allegations that the Nepali army in the recent days have come heavily down against his workers and activists in the remote villages gets also evident when he says, " we are still committed to bring the ongoing peace talks to a logical end".

When he says so, two things come to the fore: firstly, that his insurgency is a changed one which would wish to enter into the third round of talks in the name of the people and the country come what may; and secondly his insurgency could have concluded that during the course of the ceasefire, the RNA must have outweighed its military power and hence the desperation for talks.

The insurgency presumably has concluded that the State has been receiving unlimited number of heavy consignments from abroad and that theirs getting the arms from abroad have been either blocked or lacked the needed financial budget to buy the arms to face any eventuality shjould the talks fail.

But this is not all. The Maoists have not yet been exhausted as is being interpreted in certain circles.

The fact is that Comrade Prachanda has sent strong warning to the establishment by saying that it would be "simply disastrous if the talks fail without providing solutions to the burning issues confronting the nation today".

This statement is no less than a bomb-shell. The underlying message, as understood by our analysts, does hint that though Prachanda presumably is desperate for talks but he is equally serious in arriving at a solution to the Maoists issues or else the nation will have to pay a very heavy price. When he says so then it should mean that the insurgency is not yet a spent force but instead continues to be a force to be reckowned with.

If Prachanda is serious for talks, then equally serious appears Kamal Thapa, a member of the government team. Mr. Thapa said Tuesday to the facilitators to the Government-Maoists talks that the establishment is ready for the talks any time the other camp wished.

Mahara and Ram Bahadur Thapa alias Badal too assured the facilitators that they were also ready for the talks.

When both are desperate for the talks then what is causing the delay?

The fact is that the government wishes to revert the agreement agreed upon last round of talks regarding the movement of the army to five kilometers periphery. The Maoists appear reluctant in reverting to their already agreed decision which for them came as a bumper prize.

However, Prachanda has hinted that the government could push any agenda for the perusal of the Maoists in course of the third round of talks.

For the Maoists, they too have a problem. The problem is on how to assimilate their army into the state machinery?

Perhaps it is here that a sort of political give and take could be struck. Easier said than done.

Analysts presume that the peace talks will see exchange of heated debates when it comes to this bargain.

The gist of Prachanda’s fresh statement: He is angry with the RNA’s recent statements wherein the RNA apparently expressed its displeasure for having limited its movement to a five kilometer periphery during the second round of the peace-talks; he is angry with the United States for Prachanda thinks that it is the US which is instigating the RNA to dilly-dallying the talks. But he doesn’t mention what political benefits after all the US will have in delaying the talks?

Koirala favours Article 127 if King acts accordingly

Kathmandu: The NC president, Koirala, is a difficult political personality to comprehend. His close aides at times don’t conceive as to what Koiralas’s next move would be for it is believed that what Koirala says, he doesn’t do and what he does, he never hints to his boys.

This should perhaps explain as to what sort of political creature Koirala is in essence.

Koirala at the moment is up against the monarch. His utterances against the King give one the impression that he has developed a sort of personal enemity with the monarch for reasons best known to him only. However, what is for sure is that he is in a mood to confront the King on a one to one basis.

Look at how he reacts to the King.

The CIAA summoned him and wished that he divulged his property details right being in the premises of the anti-corruption authority. He challenged the CIAA authority and labeled the CIAA action to have been prompted by some one behind the curtain.

He took the CIAA summoning him as a challenge to the extent that he began voicing his concern for the King’s private property and demanded that the King declared his wealth in possession. In one way he demanded transparency in the Palace.

However, the fact is that he decided to seek explanations from the King regarding his property only after wqhen he was summoned by the CIAA.

This means that Koirala would not have gone to this extent had the CIAA not summoned him for interrogation. This does smell a sort of personal venedetta.

At yet another very political level, Koirala considers that if the King uses the Article 127 that provides benefits to his party and the rest of the agitating parties would be considered as a move "constitutional". The corollary of it would be if the King uses the Article 127 that goes against his demands, is wholly "unconstitutional" one.

This is how the matter stands.

The fact is that a frustrated Koirala recently in his hometown "modestly" divulged that the King could use article 127 for the restoration of the now dissolved parliament if he so desires. This means that Koirala still possesses a hope in the core of his heart that one fine morning the monarch will use article 127 to save his fading popularity and prestige as well.

The fact is that it is this Koirala who considers the use of article 127 by the King in the past to be an unconstitutional acts as and when he is denied power.

How come it could be a constitutional move for Koirala if the King revives the parliament through the use of the most infamous article 127 and how come the same article when used by the King that doesn’t benefit Koirala politically become unconstitutional?

In effect when Koirala is suggesting the King to use article 127 for the reinstatement of the house, he is prompting the King to act once again unconstitutionally.

The fact of the matter is that the King can not oblige Koirala because he has demanded so or has suggested so. The crux of the matter is that the King has no authority to quash the verdict upheld by the nation’s apex court which had approved the dissolution of the parliament when Deuba was the prime minister.

The King will not dare and should not dare to go against the interpretation of the court. All that he can do is to presumably seek the suggestions of the court if pressed hard. In that hypothetical case, how the apex court wishes to see its own previous decision will have to be watched.

This is what Woli of the UML said the other day. Woli maintains that if the King is allowed to restore the parliament would have a negative impact on the whole body politic of the democratic system.

For the time being, the possibility of the house being restored under pressure appears remote. However, what is not remote is the possibility of an all-party government at the center that satisfied all the parliamentary parties now in agitation. But that too if the incumbent regime fails whose longevity depends much on the success of the talks with the Maoists that is yet to resume its dialogue.

Indian Assistance For Polytechnic

A Tripartite Agreement was signed today between India, HMGN and the Manmohan Memorial Foundation (MMF), on the establishment of the Manmohan Memorial Polytechnic in district Morang. This agreement was signed by the Ambassador of India, Mr. Shyam Saran, Mr Bhanu Prasad Acharya, Finance Secretary of HMGN and Mr Bharatmohan Adhikari, Chairman of the Manmohan Foundation. The Polytechnic will be established with grant assistance of NRs.280 million from the Government of India. It will be spread over 4 hectares made available by the Manmohan Foundation in Hathimunda, Morang about 10 kms. from Biratnagar airport.

This Polytechnic will play an important role in the generation of technical manpower in Nepal. The Polytechnic will offer 3-year diploma courses with 48 seats each in Electrical Engineering, Electronics and Mechanical Engineering. In addition, short courses will be available, with 20 seats each, for training in trade skills such as Electrician, Plumber, Automobile Mechanic, Fitter, Machine Operator, Electronics Mechanic, Refrigeration Mechanic, Carpenter and Welder-cum-Fabricator.

Indian assistance will cover all capital costs, including construction of administrative and instructional buildings and hostel and residential complex, procurement of all necessary equipment and furniture, and books for the library. The recurring cost of deputation of Indian expert faculty, for a period of 5 years, in such disciplines where Nepalese faculty is not available, as well as the cost of training of Nepalese faculty in India, will also be provided by the Government of India. The main building of the Polytechnic will be called ‘Nepal Bharat Maitri Bhawan ’, to stand as an enduring symbol of the close friendship between the two countries. It has been decided to name the Polytechnic as ’Manmohan Memorial Polytechnic’ in memory of Manmohan Adhikari, a great political leader and former PM of Nepal.

His Majesty's Government of Nepal has proposed to set up one Polytechnic in each of the five development regions of the country. The Manmohan Memorial Polytechnic, Biratnagar will be the first of such Polytechnics, in the eastern development region of Nepal.

( Indian embassy press release-editor).

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