Economy confronting stagnation

Prof. Dr. Madan Kumar Dahal, Head of Economics Department, T.U

TGQ1: IN what state you, Dr. Dahal, see Nepal’s economy today especially after the announcement of the ceasefire a few months back? Your exclusive comments please!

Prof. Dahal: We were optimistic after the ceasefire announcement that recession would be neutralized and economy would grow to take care of attaining a high level of economic growth rate and reducing the extent of poverty as envisaged in the Tenth Plan (2002-07). Unfortunately, the latest available data reflect a grim scenario of the economy confronting stagnation. The tax effort ratio, TFR, is confined to 9.9% of the GDP as of May 30, 2003 against the target of 12.0% for the FY 2002-03.

During this period, development expenditure declined by –20.6, and regular expenditure increased by 9.0% as compared to the previous period May 31, 2002. The magnitude of regular expenditure surpassed the size of revenue available to treasury by Rs. 4 billion. This is manifestation of increasing trends in revenue deficit that would exert a serious pressure on internal borrowing especially from the banking sector. This would increase per capita burden of the internal loan resulting in further price rise. International fiscal authorities have suggested that internal borrowing should not exceed 10% of total revenue.

Export to India witnessed a reversal, which declined by 7.9% in this period. This is particularly attributed to the imposition of quantitative restrictions provisioned in the Nepal-India Trade Treaty 2002. Major indicators of the Stock Market have shown a mixed performance and the NEPSE index gradually slumped during the FY 2002-03. The economic growth rate is estimated to be 1.5% as of AsDB projection, which is below the population growth rate. Thus, Nepalese economy

Suffers from inherent structural constraints that must be addressed especially to provide security to investment and create environment to promote remittance economy, only source for economic development, in addition to development of hydropower. However, this requires for establishing peace, security and political stability in the country by developing national consensus among political powers.

The consequences of the relay strike may take some time to crystallize

-Anand Aditya, Political Analyst

TGQ2: How you Mr. Aditya take the relay hunger strike currently being initiated by the five agitating parties? Your comments please?

Anand Aditya: It’s a reflection of the discontent, desperation, and resentment that is on the rise among the political parties, who despite their prevailing differences between themselves are trying to give a signal of inter-party solidarity and counter the steps being taken by the ruling regime.

What follows in the wake of this strike will by and large depend upon their tenacity, strategy, and the measure of trust between the members of the party alliance. That the response comes late is a foregone conclusion, an observation which remains unspoken in the minds of most of the observers of the contemporary scene and anticipated by many if not most of them.

The consequences of this development may take some time to crystallize.

There is no politics at all in Nepal

-Birendra Shrestha, Ex president, NCWA

TGQ3: In what state you, Mr. Shrestha, find Nepali politics standing today? Is it moving positive or otherwise? Your remarks please!

Mr. Shrestha: First, there is no politics at all. A politics should have been as an interaction of the group of peoples holding different interests and its one perception for national interest, interactive at the dialogue process to attain a national consensus for the betterment of the people and national interest.

When it is not at all a politics then all the activities that are happening today can’t be considered as positive. All the activities that is directed towards achieving few individuals/groups’ interests at the cost of the larger interest of the people and the nation can’t be called positive politics.

Positive politics always must direct its activities towards serving the interests of the people and the nation first. Street protest alone, however large or small, can’t be considered as people’s politics, for democracy or otherwise.

It is ridiculous to blame others when faults lie well within Nepal’s territory

-Dhruba Hari Adhikari, Senior Journalist, Nepal

TGQ4: It is alleged that alien forces are meddling in Nepal’s internal politics. Do you Mr. Adhikari subscribe to this view? Your opinions please!

Mr. Adhikary: It is not just an allegation, it is a definite perception—based on actual events and trends. The appointment of Surya Bahadur Thapa is one case in point. Thapa’s party had only eleven seats in the dissolved parliament whereas Madhav Kumar Nepal, the person who got support from five parties, commanded about Hundred and Ninety seats in the 205—member House of Representatives. What prompted the King to ignore Mr. Nepal’s choice made by a coalition of five parties? This is a matter that needs serious attention.

An Ambassador of a Western democracy told the Nepali media a few weeks ago that "matters regarding Nepal are now being coordinated in London, Washington and Delhi. Is not this comment self explanatory?

Of course, there should not be foreign interference in Nepal’s internal affairs. But who is to be blamed primarily for this untenable situation? Instead of pointing and accusing fingers to others, those in power should examine their own action and inaction of the preceding years. It is ridiculous to blame others when the faults lie well within Nepal’s territory. What is required now is self-introspection—by the King, political leaders, the Maoists, officials handling security forces, foreign policy makers and media managers.

If you become weak, or chose to waste your energy in quarreling over issues like religion, ethnicity, languages, outsiders are bound to take undue advantage. Neighbors obviously say that instability in adjacent countries can give rise to conflicts in their own territories.

It is inhumane to use school going children as political tools

Dr. Surendra K.C, History Department, T.U

TGQ5: How you Dr. K.C view the school going kids being dragged and used by the political parties as their political tools? Your comments please!

Dr. K.C: It is inhumane at the first place to drag or use the students, whether they belong to the nursery classes or from the higher educational institutions, by the political parties as their tools. It amounts to a national loss and could be considered as an act that is deceptive. Such practices not only damages the education of the students but also spoils their future career which ultimately causes drain to the national exchequer as the parents would very much wish to send their kids to the schools in the foreign countries. This ultimately provides a negative impact on those institutions that have been providing education in the form of a business/ industry.

When the students are forced to go abroad, this brings in the "foreign education" that is incompatible with the existing system of education in the country. This also damages the country’s fledgling education sector.

My suggestion would be to the political parties not to play politics with the occupation, business and education.

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