I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
No room for the King !

Kathmandu: The pessimism is permeable. Expected reports of the Maoists winding up their lone office in the capital merely underscores the pessimism regarding the talks with the Maoists regardless of the government claims otherwise. The mock parliamentary session of the agitating parties is the other reflection of the zero chances of the Thapa cabinet garnering their support. Even rumors of a solely RPP expansion of the cabinet has yet to materialize.

This suggests that Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa has failed in both fronts. What keeps him in government is the plea that he has had little time. The plea for time is voiced by Minister Kamal Thapa’s public utterance of the need of at least six months to perform. However, tensions that have surfaced within two months of his government suggest that more time may be costly. Thapa has had his way in the formation of the government. His choice has prevented continuity of the visible gains of the previous Chand ministry. Even this smacks of retrogression. The agitation has heightened. The talks with the Maoists appear doomed. There is no motion forward. If there is any motion, it is backward.

And so one can’t but call for a visible action by noneless than the monarchy to ensure that at least a semblance of change keeping with the demands of the people is instigated, or else events will repeatedly invite an appearance of the Palace merely reacting to situations. The initiative, it will seem, will be solely that of either the Maoists or the agitators or, now, of noneless than S. B. Thapa.

It is too transparent that Thapa owes his office to none other than the King. The agitators target the King. The Maoists single him out. And, now, the King must face the possibility of Thapa’s ire in case he is dumped which he must.

At another level, the "grand design" is shaping up. Those who fear the reemergence of a Bhutan like situation in Nepal should go one step further and see a Sikkim being built up in Nepal. In case the monarchy is pressured into the political decisions to recall the now dissolved parliament which is being deliberately provoked by the agitators with known instigators, the Congress-UML combine will have been teased enough to curtail whatever remnant residual powers for the monarchy with the strength of its numbers in a constitutional amendment. If he chooses not to do so on the strength of the constitution, the Maoists on the one hand and the agitating powers on the other can be instigated against the monarchy directly. This polarization is a well conceived design for the next phase of the so-called Nepali democracy.

It is this polarization that will have to be properly understood in its national, regional and international perspectives prior to the monarchy making a determined and cohesive stand in favor of the constitution. This decision will have to be political.

Democratic peace not possible without parliamentary parties

Kathmandu: - A program was organized on Monday by the UNDP to launch the Annual Human Development Report, 2003. This year’s theme of the report is "Millenium Development Goals: A compact among nations to end Human Poverty. "

Speaking on the occasion, the chief of the UN System in Nepal, Dr. Henning Karcher, emphasized that unless and until conflict is resolved little progress can be made in the development of Nepal. He also added that "heart of democracy lies in the elections and mentioned that the " future of the political system will be determined at the ballot box at central and decentralized levels".

Dr Karcher said this year’s report is particularly important and relevant in the context of Nepal as it focuses on the Millenium Development Goals. If the targets set by the MDG are followed in later and spirit manner, opined Karcher, possessed the potential to transform the world even.

" Even more important is the translation of these goals into concrete sub-goals targets and indicators at the decentralized level. Workshops have been held with the Local Development Offices (LDOs) of all 75 districts informing them of the MDGs and encouraging them to reflect them in their receptive district development plans and budgets. Let me emphasize here that we are not advocating a one- size-fits-all approach. What matters is the setting of specific targets in line with the specific circumstances that prevail locally and commitments by all concerned to keep targets high on the agenda, until they are fully realized", concluded the UN System chief in Nepal. (For detailed text of Dr. Karcher’s speech go to page 2)

Yet another guest invited by the UNDP for the release of the Human Development Report, was the head of the DFID, Mr. David Wood, who remarked that the UK’s overseas development assistance budget is set to increase to nearly 7 billion dollars in 2005/6 of GDP. However he stressed the need to move faster on aid effectiveness. Speaking in the context of Nepal, Mr. Wood welcomed the progress made in relation to the education and gender equality, under 5 mortality and access to water and sanitation. Hinting towards the 7 years conflict between the government and the Maoists, Mr. Wood said "there is a lot to be done to further decrease the maternal mortality and to reduce the poverty, which has risen in the last few decades". (For detailed text of Mr. Woods’s speech go to page 2)

To a questions posed by this scribe to Mr. Wood, the chief at the British donor agency, at the press meet organized immediately after launching the Human development report, said that the "present political crisis could be avoided only with the political solution avoiding casualties and urged the political parties to be part of the peace process". He however agreed that Nepal was now facing structural problem(s) without the participation of political parties and hinted that the ongoing peace endeavors should be more democratic. Dr Karcher pushing his rejoinder to Mr. Wood’s remark while replying to this scribe’s query said UN was and still is ready to provide its assistance to help solve the problem, though the government has been ruling out the need for third party mediation.

Karcher said, release of this years Human Development Report could be considered as a careful and systematic monitoring process towards achieving the goals.

At the program Dr Shankar Sharma, The Vice Chairman of the National Planning Commission launched the report and elaborated Nepal’s position in the just launched report and clarified its respective position.

Key Points of the HDR with respect to Nepal

Nepal Ranks 143rd (among 145 counties) with a Human Development Index (HDI) value of 0.499. With this HDI value, Nepal belongs to the category of the low human development countries. However, it only ranks 2nd in this category, preceded by Cameroon and followed by Pakistan but Nepal’s HDI value has been steadily increasing since 1975.

Nepal ranks 70th among 94 developing countries for which Human Poverty Index has been calculated with HPI value of 41.9%.

Nepal is one of the worst performer in the South Asia with the ranking of 119 in the Gender related Development Index (GDI). In the same category Sri Lanka ranks 80th and Pakistan (the worst performer) in 120th position.

Will Madhav be picked up if Thapa resigns?

Kathmandu: The stalemate continues.

The political parties appear yet energetic in sustaining their ongoing agitation aimed mainly against the monarchy and in all likelihood remain in the battlefield until the King yields to their demands. In the process, the parliamentary parties have already entered into their sixth phase of agitation which they claim was to control the "regression" initiated by the constitutional monarch with the dismissal of the then Sher Bahadur Deuba’s elected government on October 4 last year.

The monarch is watching the events but yet appears reluctant in exhibiting his sagacity and graciousness towards the agaitation waged by the political parties.

On the other, Girija Prasad Koirala, the supposed commander of the movement, despite his falling health and age is determined to what he says "bring the monarchy to its real and the stipulated role". He says to the press that his anger is not towards the monarchy as an institution but is aimed against the monarch who, according to Koirala, has exceeded his clearly defined and stipulated limits. But the fact is that Koirala’s recent political overtones appear becoming more and more personal against the King. How the King is taking his vitriolic statements is not known to any one because the Kings in Nepal have a tradition of controlling their feelings, however bitter it might be, to the hilt.

Madhav Nepal, the supposed second man leading the agitation, has reasons to be annoyed with the King who denied him the prime ministerial post despite the fact that the agitating parties pushed his name as their "consensus" candidate for the said post.

Though Mr. Nepal expressed his deep anger against the King in the immediate days when he was denied the post, but these days not very surprisingly he has been ventilating his anger not towards the monarch but against the Prime Minister who replaced him. It is the incumbent Prime Minister Thapa on whom Mr. Nepal is pouring in his internal outbursts. Mr. Nepal’s anxiety has grown to the extent that he has already predicted that Thapa’s tenure in government is matter of days not even weeks.

Madhav’s prediction comes at a time when Prime Minister Thapa has failed in all fronts after his assuming the post of the chief of the executive. Thapa while has miserably failed in bagging the support of the agitating parties, he has also been unable to bring the rebels to the talks. Unconfirmed reports in the form of rumors say that the King had allowed two months time to Mr. Thapa to arrest the deteriorating trends in the country and the time frame provided him by the monarch is about to come to an end or has even exceeded. This means that Thapa is left with only two options.

Either to declare the elections or quit the post.

That Thapa could prefer the first option becomes evident from the fact that the budget just presented by Dr. Lohani has allocated amounts for the general elections. The budget even has allocated Rs.20 each vote to the political parties and the parties will be paid the money according to the votes they received during the last general elections. However, the ground reality is that the Maoists fear persists in the villages which does not allow the politicians to even visit their own constituencies. In the existing scheme of things, politicians’ say holding of the elections were simply unthinkable.

"Had there been good rapport in between the government and the rebels, the idea of going to the elections could be thought of", said a leader of the NC. According to him, given the widening rift in between the State and the rebels and the resumption of the talks remaining yet uncertain, going to the elections would be simply a dangerous bet.

The fact is that unless the talks with the Maoists get settled and that too takes a positive landing, holding of the elections is simply impossible.

But, question analysts, what is the basis for the government’s allocating the budget for the election purposes? Should this mean that the government is confident that the Maoists will come to the table soon and both will arrive at a happy conclusion? Does this mean that the Maoists too hinted the State that they wouldn’t mind if the former allocated budget for the elections?

Then yet another question arises: Will the mainstream political parties accept the government’s decision to go in for elections even if the talks were continuing?

Be that as it may, the second option is Thapa’s quitting the chair advancing his failure. Is it that Madhav Nepal’s outbursts against Thapa is guided by the idea that if Thapa is gone, he is the next Prime Minister? Is it that the King himself assured Mr. Nepal that if by chance Thapa quits or is forced to quit, he would be his next choice? Is this possible?

Perhaps yes!

Let’s wait and see how Thapa moves. Nevertheless, what is for sure is that if he could bring the rebels to the talk, his tenure in government is ensured. If he fails, not only the political parties but the king also could advise him to tender his resignation.

But how Thapa will react if he is forced to resign will have to be watched.

This means that if Madhav is the Prime Minister, the agitation will lose its steam instantly. If not, then the agitation will take a new height as Madhav has declared recently.

Delay in talks causing panic; ISG asks rebels to refrain from acts of extortion

Kathmandu: Somewhere lies the hitch. Of the two, the government and the Maoists, one is playing double. It could even be guessed that both were exhibiting their double standards.

Kathmandu’s political watchers conclude that a very dangerous situation prevails at the moment which could only be averted if the government and the Maoists could be brought face to face at the negotiating table.

The pressure is mounting on both to resume the now suspended talks.

In the process, the international community too has expressed its concern for the talks and has urged both the parties to exhibit their sincerity for the talks.

The British Embassy Monday evening has through a press release has asked the Maoists to give up "criminal extortion" and sincerely pursue the peace process.

The Industrial Security Group, ISG, a consortium of five powerful and democratic nations of the West that includes the USA, France, Germany, India and the United Kingdom, has not only told the Maoists to refrain from acts of forced extortion but has also suggested the rebels "to rejoin legitimate Nepali politics".

The statement was released by the British Embassy representing the countries housed in the ISG group.

A close look at the ISG expression would instantly mean that the countries in the ISG group were not happy with the manner the Maoists had been violating the code of conduct reached in between them and the government. Its corollary would be that if the Maoists continued their acts of omission and commission, the ISG will do the needful. Here lies the significance of the ISG statement.

The Maoists have yet to react to the fresh ISG overture.

Be that as it may, the sudden closure of the Kathmandu contact point of the Maoists in Anamnagar, close to the office of this weekly, has raised doubts in the minds of the informed citizenry who now fear that the talks might go to the dogs.

However, things have deteriorated not to that extent as is being publicised.

The fact is that despite the hitch for the resumption of the peace talks, the Maoists and the government both know that they can’t ignore talks for obvious reasons.

The government can’t ignore because the peaceloving citizenry have been forcing since the very first day of the announcement of a ceasefire. The government can’s ignore the talks, so do the Maoists, because the civil society has suddenly become stronger and been pressing both the parties concerned to sit for the talks or face wide condemnations.

The HR groups, both national and international, have told both the parties that they can’t afford ignoring the talks. Add to this, the ISG is there whose implied message is clear. Fortunately, the UNDP and the British donor agency, the DFID, too expressed their eagerness only the other day to mediate the Maoists-Government talks should they be told to do so.

All put together, the Maoists and the government will sit for the talks.

The Maoists are apparently hard pressed for the talks. The Maoists clearly understand that the State enjoys the support of the entire donor community who also concurrently were powerful democracies against the upsurge of terrorism which means that abandoning talks or delaying the talks with the State would mean inviting wrath for them and their insurgency. The Maoists must have taken by surprise when they could read the name of India in the ISG group. To recall, India has remained a sanctuary for the leaders of the rebels. The fresh ISG statement, which in one way is also India’s concern, to Maoists means much than meets the eye for understandable reasons.

This means that powerful countries of the globe, including neighboring India would wish the Maoists to come to the table. This further means that the Maoists are being pressed more than the government.

Fortunately, after the closure of their contact point in Kathmandu, the Maoists haven’t ruled out the possibility for the talks. All that the rebels have sought from the establishment is a sort of security guarantee to the rebels who have become aboveground in the recent months. The government apparently has hinted that it will abide by their requests for the government also fathoms the scale of damage the insurgency could inflict should the talks fail or the Maoists do not attend the talks.

However, this is not the end of the story.

The Maoists reportedly have been importing arms in Kathmandu through their own channels. The RNA claims that it is in knowledge of these Maoists overtures. Add to this, the Maoists of late have gone crazy and been squeezing leading businessmen and collecting money possibly for its use should the talks fail.

But what is that hitch?

Is the hitch pertaining to the agreement reached in between the rebels and the government to limit the RNA activities within a five kms, periphery to which the government apparently rejected? Or is it that the RNA summarily rejected the rebels proposition that their army be incorporated in the mainstream army? Could be both.

On another plane, the hitch appears to be related not with the security matters but solely on matters that speak of Maoists’ political agenda to which the government has strong reservations: for example, the election to the constituent assembly. To recall, the mainstream parties, save a few, reject the constituent assembly theory.

Or is it that the rebels wish to join the government and then go in for the elections to the constituent assembly?

Will the mainstream parties agree in elevating the ranks of the rebels in the cabinet, an interim one or even an all party government? How the King will react to this proposal? And by the same token, will the powerful West digest the Maoists being elevated to ministerial ranks and that too much ahead of the conclusion of the peace talks?

All said and done, the million dollar questions are: where lies the hitch? Who could untie the knot?

Does this indicate that the King himself should come forward and end the stalemate on both the fronts: the first at the level of parliamentary parties now in agitation and the next, with the Maoists who deliberately or otherwise delaying the talks? However, the Maoists have repeatedly said that they were ready for the talk. All that they need is a go ahead signal from their high command led by comrade Prachanda.

No more harassment to Amatya, say Nepali businessmen

Kathmandu: The authorities at the CIAA interrogated Piyush Bahadur Amatya for the second time at the instigation of the Irish management of the Nepal Bank Limited.

Mr. Amatya is the Chairman of the Fulbari Resorts, Pokhara.

He is being harassed. He is mentally tortured. He has become the first victim of the whimsical stance taken by the Irish management of the NBL at the instigation of some rotten eggs controlling the finance sector of the country within and outside the bank.

The fact is that the NBL foreign management choose Amatya to penalize his inability to repay the loans on time forgetting that he is not the one to do so in the crowd of the many but there were scores of most infamous notorious guys who owe astronomical amounts of the Bank and yet exhibit their total neglect to pay back the loans of the said bank.

But then why Amatya became the victim? Is the question that is being asked by the informed citizenry in the country.

Needless to say, the entire business community has taken Mr. Amatya being wrongly handled by the NBL as a clear affront to their prestige and apparently have vowed to retaliate to the NBL unjustifiable stance at an opportune moment.

The fact is that many a businessmen have opted not to transact with the country’s oldest bank on this account fearing that the foreign management might treat them as well much the same way they did with a serious and honest Nepali industrialist.

Mr. Amatya was summoned last Wednesday at the CIAA and the authorities there interrogated him on the preliminary issues regarding the loans.

The fact is that not only Amatya but a host of others who happen to be in this tourism related business have been hard hit by the slump seen in this sector specially after the IA814 hijack in Kathmandu that followed with the violent activities of the Maoists insurgency.

"Needless to say, Amatya’s Fulbari Resorts felt the impact of all the country’s ailments put together", said an industrialist who maintains that the Bank which should have allowed comfortable time to Amatya to settle his transactions opted to resort to means that are generally considered to be unfair and illogical.

Not very surprisingly then, a few local enthusiasts engaged in the legal sector opted to push a writ petition at the nation’s apex court demanding that the Bank be freed from the foreign management. The writ petitioners contend that the installation of the new Irish management in the NBL runs contra to the laws of the land.

The fact is that the Nepal Rastra bank which allowed the entry of the Irish people to take over the Bank’s management did so apparently concluding that Nepal lacked personalities who could look over their own financial institutions. The fact is just the other wise.

The petition has also demanded that the agreement thus reached in between the NRB and the Irish management is made null and void.

The court is yet to give its verdict.

Mr. Amatya has been summoned early next month at the CIAA.

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