I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Strategy is to polarize Nepal

Kathmandu: Two consistent themes voiced by the political sector in reaction to the appointment of Surya Bahadur Thapa as Prime Minister deserve analysis. The first is the charge that India openly manipulated the system in Thapa’s favor. The second is to do with the raised anti-monarchical pitch of the parties disappointed by the rejection of their prime ministerial candidate Madhav Nepal.

Thaps’s appointment is the closest option to that of Lokendra Bahadur Chand. He was appointed under article 127. Like Chand, he is the "leader" of the RPP party which is the largest in the parliament outside the agitating Congress and the UML. The RPP considers His Majesty’s use of article 127 as constitutionally legitimate.

The vociferous criticism of the monarchy by the agitating parties and its reflection in the partisan media forgets the fact that Madhav Nepal’s appointment is a constitutional impossibility since the agitating parties unwittingly boxed themselves in with the twin demands of the revival of the now dissolved parliament and the implementation of the redundant article 128. The King can do neither under the constitution. He can merely activise article 127 to remove hitches in the constitution.

Where the India hand comes in as a factor favoring Surya Bahadur Thapa is a mystery known better to the agitating parties since the current constitution is a product of their agitation launched 14 years ago amidst an Indian economic blockade of Nepal. It is not forgotten also that the agitating parties had announced their people’s movement hosting Indian leaders at the moment.

The slide towards an openly India conscious politics ever since has hardly escaped notice in Nepal and abroad and that the Thapa appointment is deemed to have been the result also of open Indian preference is of little surprise to most Nepal watchers. What is surprising is that the agitating parties should now cry foul on this account. Also noteworthy is that this is more outspokenly stated in the partisan media while our party leaders would prefer the more vague charge of "foreign hand at work" surreptitiously charging the British and the American interests and ignoring the India factor.

The second theme has to do with the more anti-monarchical standpoint Thaps’s appointment has generated. Clearly, a polarization process that divides the issue of the monarchy into pro and anti monarchy forces is underway.

In 1975, one might recall, Sikkimese democracy was also polarized thus prior to the Indian hand swinging it towards republicanism and finally merger with India.

In the background of these two things, it is possible now to analyze the coming course of events in Nepali politics. Thaps’s government will not be cooperated with and the agitation will raise its pitch. Government will be formed of minor parties and elections will be announced. The agitating parties who brought this constitution to the current chaos on account of their need to form electoral governments will probably continue the agitation and consider elections without their participation fraudulent. Thus the polarization will continue.

The Rajan phobia in Nepal

Kathmandu: The Article 127 of the 1990 constitution is creating news.

Its first use by the monarch last October elevated the ranks of RPP leader, Lokendra Bahadur Chand, whose poor and dismal performance both in satisfying the agitating parties and delivering goods to the people is well known to all. Albeit this establishment did bring the Maoists to the negotiating table and managed two round of talks with the insurgents. No less an achievement indeed but that too appears dwindling at the moment and no body knows when the third round of talks with the rebels will resume for the latter have been accusing the "old regime" to be hatching conspiracy against them by effecting changes in the government.

The new government under shrewd politician, Surya Bahadur Thapa, who is known for his conspiratorial politics, has yet to spell out its agenda on the talks with the Maoists. Whether the Thapa regime will go ahead with the same team or will effect certain changes in the members of the team to resume talks with the Maoists is yet uncertain. The fact is that Thapa is yet to announce the team of his cabinet.

In the process, the Maoists are loosing their patience and been voicing their concern for the talks giving an impression that they were desperate for the talks but concurrently see a "grand design" being hatched by certain "alien" forces to sabotage the talks.

The alien force whom they consider to be their number one enemy is the United States of America for reasons best known to the rebels only.

Question now could be asked as to why the Maoists consider only the US as their enemy but not other countries in the neighborhood who more often than not poke their nose into the internal matters of this country.

More candidly speaking, the Maoists have never uttered a single word against India, which supposedly canvassed openly this time around in favor of S.B.Thapa and made him the country’s Prime Minister. The Maoists are yet to spell out their patriotic and nationalist "remarks" on how they took the former Indian Ambassador Krishna Venkatesh Rajan’s overly stretched stay in Kathmandu? To recall, Mr. Rajan was in Hyatt Regency Hotel for all along a week or so and left for his home country India only when he became sure that the next prime minister in Nepal would be of his choice: Mr. Surya Bahadur Thapa.

Similarly, the parties now in agitation too have yet to speak out their minds on how they took Ambassador Rajan’s political overtures which dismissed the possibility of Madhav Nepal as a consensus candidate from becoming nation’s prime minister?

Simply making vague statements and pointing towards the "foreign hands at work" will not do. What is the demand of the time is that all the agitating forces must come up with strong worded statements against India, if it maneuvered Nepali politics at all, that henceforth they will not tolerate any Indian pressures in Nepali affairs. They should have already come up with such statements. They haven’t so far. And in all likelihood, they will never issue any statement that accuses India of interference.

The fact is that most of the agitating parties at one time or the other have enjoyed India’s blessing to ride to power in Nepal and hence issuing statements against India would mean capping the possibilities of enjoying Indian support in the future.

Poor Madhav Nepal though was a consensus candidate not only of the agitating parties but had been presumably backed by a sizeable chunk of the Nepali population as well had to face defeat at the hands of his own long time close friend, Ambassador Rajan for whom Thapa became more closer in the given scheme of things in Nepal than Madhav.

Rajan came, he saw and conquered.

Political watchers here express their anger for Rajan who during the Mahakali treaty ratification sought the exclusive support of this Madhav Nepal who to a large extent remained instrumental in ratifying the said treaty.

Analysts conclude that for India, person doesn’t matter. What matters for India is who could take care of her political interests in Nepal.

Thapa, the incumbent prime minister apparently enjoys the political support from both the Indian establishment and from the main opposition-the Congress under Sonia Gandhi.

To recall, Thapa is considered to be a very close friend of India from the time of the indomitable lady prime minister, late Indira Gandhi.

Be that as it may, Thapa’s elevation to the ranks of the prime minister does raise questions: who make prime ministers in Nepal?

The rest for the intellectuals to mull over.

Will Premier Thapa tolerate the agitation for long?

Kathmandu: For good or bad, the agitation sponsored by the five agitating parties is continuing and appears that it would continue ad infinitum.

Of the all comprising the five major parliamentary parties, the hardest hit is the UML. More candidly speaking, it is the UML leader Madhav Nepal who had been the consensus candidate of the agitating parties for the post of the prime minister. But he was denied for reasons best known to the Palace only.

However, informed sources say that Madhav Nepal too was a preferred candidate for the Palace but could not elevate his ranks to the post of the prime minister for the following reasons.

The first, analysts say, could be that the Palace concluded that if Madhav is allowed to function as the prime minister, he will certainly push his common agenda of reviving the dead parliament which would have been a bitter pill for the Palace for the latter considered it not fit to go against the verdict of the nation’s apex court. The court had upheld, to recall, the Deuba’s dissolution of the last parliament. If the King would have complied to Madhav’s agenda, it would have set a very bad precedent. This would have again meant that an active monarchy were in the offing. Perhaps keeping all these considerations, the Palace preferred S.B.Thapa instead of Madhav Nepal.

Second reason could be that neighboring India had in her mind that Thapa could be the better candidate in Nepal as prime minister who could take proper care of her never ending "political interests" which appears to have prompted India to manuever Nepali politics around the time of the making of the prime minister in Nepal.

Third reason, analysts say, could be that the Western democracies too preferred Thapa over Madhav Nepal for understandable reasons. Its corollary would be that the West choose a "liberal" democrat though of the Panchayat era in place of a fire brand communist apparently fearing that the elevation of Mr. Nepal might make the entire country all RED. The West presumably prefers the growth of the democrats in lieu of the communists. They could have also concluded that the elevation of Mr. Nepal to the ranks of the Premier of the country might time permitting allow the Maoists to forge an alliance with the UML and voice for the installation of republicanism in the country. The Indian establishment too appears to have been guided by this theory which if true would mean that both India and the Western democracies would very much wish to see Nepal going all and all democratic with no signs of RED.

Fourth reason could be that the Palace got the hint that even if Madhav Nepal is chosen as the prime minister, he would not severe his relations with the rest of the political parties now in opposition. This meant that the Palace concluded that it is better not to invite Madhav Nepal who can’t shield the interets of the Royal Palace that is the King.

Be that as it may, Thapa is the prime minister. His first round of talks with the agitating-5 has miserably failed. He has been unable to seduce them to enter into his cabinet. In these circumstances, what he would do then? How he would steer the nation? Is a common question that is being asked every where and is a valid question indeed.

Those who understand Thapa better say that his conspiratorial brain will not allow the agitation to go on indefinitely. But how he would bring about a rift in between the agitating parties will have to be carefully watched. This he can do provided he prefers to go on that line. But the fact is that he has vowed not to toe the ugly line.

However, there remains one possibility which can save Thapa’s face. He will, under frustration, convince the King to declare the general elections which if announced will surely distract the attention of the agitating parties from agitation and will presumably concentrate their attention towards the elections. A sort of hint has come from President Koirala. Koirala reportedly told Thapa to try either the restoration of the house or manage to declare the elections.

But how the Maoists would react to the announcement of the elections prior to the conclusion of the talks with them? This is a big question indeed.

Whether the Maoists like it or not, the elections could bring back to the rails the already derailed democratic system and the constitution. And this is what the international community too wishes.

But the Maoists remain adamant and been demanding the rewriting of an altogether new constitution that takes care of their demands. Convening of elections under this constitution is what they reject.

How the politics proceeds will have to be watched. How the government convinces the Maoists will also have to be watched.

By all means, the country’s politics appears to be more than interesting in the impending days.

Premier Thapa’s political ‘acumen’ to be tested soon

Kathmandu: The Maoists appear to be in a dilemma.

The dilemma that they confront now is on how to cope with the emerging political scenario due to the sudden resignation tendered by Lokendra Bahadur Chand last week and his replacement by yet another shrewd politician of the country-Surya Bahadur Thapa.

For the Maoists understandably theirs going smooth with the new prime minister will not be that easy as had been with Chand in the recent past.

Chand, considered by analysts as to be a hardliner and close to the Palace, some how or the other managed two round of talks wherein he apparently gave concessions which the insurgents apparently demanded. The Maoists perhaps know better that it would be not that easy to extract "political mileage" from the incumbent prime minister Thapa and hence appear to devise new schemes and strategies to cope with the incumbent conspiratorial brain seated in Singh Durbar.

A reflection to this idea comes from their recent statements which indicates that they too could join in the agitation now being sponsored by the Big-5 if the latter agreed on certain minimum demands put forth by the insurgents.

The agitationists out of frustration too appear to shake-hands with the firebrand and radical communists if the establishment, more so the Palace, doesn’t yield to their political demands.

Their demands include the restoration of the house and the formation of an all-party government with all the executive powers under the leadership of some one nominated by the big-5.

RPP sources say that the second demand has already been met with by the King when he formed the Thapa government and notified through a communiqué that the executive powers now remain with the government thus formed under premier Thapa.

The big-5 reject this Royal declaration and wish to put Thapa government under the same category as that of the previous government led by Chand.

The deadlock thus continues.

The fight thus appears more with the King than his government under Thapa.

Question again arises: what if the Maoists join the agitation sponsored by the big-5? If this does happen, what would happen to the country if the parties together with the big-5 wage a joint struggle against the government and finally the monarchy? Will the incumbent establishment be able to contain the threats posed to it and the monarchy?

The Maoists have hinted that they could acquire any posture to meet their demands. But will they support the big-5 for the restoration of the now dissolved house? Will they prefer to wage a movement together with those who champion the 1990 constitution? These are some of the questions that demand serious merit by the Maoists prior to theirs jumping onto the movement sponsored by those who claim that most of the Maoists demands could be met with by effecting certain changes in the existing constitution.

The Maoists demand an altogether a new constitution. They demand a constituent assembly. They demand an interim order to go in for a constituent assembly. The parties now in opposition appear reluctant to these Maoists demands.

Interestingly, the Maoists have hinted that they are not perturbed by the change of guards at Singh Durbar. It matters little for them on who is seated in Singh Durbar. All that they wish the resumption of the talks even if it were a new guard-Thapa. For them Thapa or any Tom, Dick or Harry makes little difference. The new regime is ready to initiate talks with the men of the old regime, this is what they opine. This means that they were in favor of meaningful and positive talks.

Analysts maintain that the Thapa government can save its political face if it succeeds in bringing the Maoists for the third round of talks. If this materializes would certainly attract the attention of the lay men towards the talks and not to the moves of the agitationists.

But how premier Thapa tackles the controversy supposedly created by the alleged agreement (?) reached with the Maoists on limiting the RNA men to five kilometer periphery will perhaps test his political acumen.

The government team, to recall, denies that it has reached such an agreement with the Maoists. The Maoists claim that it had been agreed so at the second round of talks with the establishment team.

Thus the controversy is on.

HDR on HIV/AIDS launched

Kathmandu: At a program organized here today, the UNDP launched "First Regional Human Development Report (HDR) on HIV/AIDS in South Asia".

The report was prepared by UNDP’s Asia Pacific Regional Initiative on Human Development Reports and the regional program on HIV and development.

The report was launched by the Member of National Planning Comission, NPC, Dr. Yubraj Khatiwada.

Speaking on the occasion, Dr. Khatiwada emphasized the need to take steps as per the sixth target set by the MDG (Millenium Development Goals) on matters related to the HIV/AIDS. He said, as there are other goals as well to attain, equal focus will be given for the AIDS Campaign as well.

He accepted that the HIV/AIDS factor could be a big drawback for the development of the nation. From the same platform, UNDP’s Deputy resident representative, Ms. Alessandra Tisot commended the Nepalese government for establishing the National AIDS Council chaired by the Prime Minister itself.

She also mentioned that the National Center for AIDS and STD control has already developed the national strategy on HIV/AIDS, 2002-06 which takes into account the MDG and the commitments made at the special session of the UNGA on HIV/AIDS.

The report thus released today argues that the region cannot afford to be complacent over the currently low levels of prevalence of HIV/AIDS. Though the prevalence level in South Asia is less than one percent, the absolute numbers of people living with HIV/AIDS is 4.2 million, making the region potential home to the second largest incidence of the epidemic in the world-the report adds.

The report focuses on the need to have inter-country dialogue and collaboration between the government to address issues of trans-border concern, such as migration and trafficking. The report suggests SAARC should take up the issue at the earliest.

The report also mentions that the women folks for biological reasons remain prone to sexually transmitted infections than their male counterparts and that this vulnerability is exacerbated by their low status in society that leaves them with little control over decisions about their bodies or sexual health.

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