I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Poor performance affects King

Kathmandu:- Discussions inevitably take place on the strength of the crowd at mass meetings such as the Sunday gathering of the Five Political Parties organized to declare their "second" and "decisive" people’s movement. That the crowd was substantive, however, belies the continued mass nonchalance. There was enough cadres of fifty year old political parties pulled in from all over to respond enthusiastically at the rabble rousing speeches lambasting the monarchy. Bu the enthusiasm from the masses outside the participating cadre was hardly noteworthy.

On the other hand, the people at large seem acutely aware of the possible effects of the current polarization. The political parties which must force themselves out of the corner in which they had backed themselves into have resorted to public belligerence by announcing their "ANDOLANS". As yet they are the monopoly organizations in the country. Their cadre strength not only gives them the visibility they sought Sunday, their presence in opposition in agitation will almost certainly be felt.

What they are asking the King to do however, defies constitutionally. They want their party government in the absence of elections and an elected parliament as per their dictate. The King had sought their participation in an all-party government, which they turned down.

What causes inhibition among the masses is that the declared agitation comes in the wake of an uncharacteristic public address by Prime Minister L.B. Chand over the government media that indicated that the government is not to deviate from the path it has taken. It will continue to seek party participation in the conclusion of the talks with the Maoists and the holding of elections. But it will go it alone if it must in case the parties continue to refuse their cooperation.

The public is aware that breaking this stalemate is a must for national good and the party agitation is hardly the manner that it should be done. Indeed, the functioning of the Premier L.B. Chand’s Cabinet gives it poor public support to withstand the organized onslaught of the parties. If the public is worried they do so on grounds of the fact hat poor government responses of the past months reflect on the King. It is not surprising that the parties bet the Monarchy directly. They do so in the awareness that ti is the monarchy that has the solutions. What the public want is a cohesive and effective policy response capable of defeating the agitation and bringing the Royal measure to its logical and desired conclusion in the establishment of peace and the early conclusion of elections to parliament.

American pressure on Maoists increasing!

Kathmandu: Analysts conclude that the days ahead are definitely very tough if not worse for the Maoist rebels.

The reason is very simple and clear as well.

The events that are unfolding in the neighborhood, the region, and the world at large and the now established supremacy of the lone super power, The United States, forces one to conclude that the Maoist rebels in Nepal will be pressed hard and will be tentatively forced to join the country’s main stream politics.

What is also becoming clear is that if the Maoists do not come to terms with the government of the day and continue to toe the line of violence and terror of the sort of what they practiced till the other day would mean acquiring a devastating posture for themselves.

The threat loaded statements that have come from various quarters or are pouring in from various countries all hint that the Maoists will have a tougher time in the future and will have to console themselves for meager concessions from the establishment.

What is surprising is that the threats from various places, countries and the likes have come almost at the same time which analysts guess could have been made so in order to settle the Nepali imbroglio at the earliest.

The prediction could also be otherwise but the timing of the statements assume significance given the rebels from the "New Regime" agreeing for talks with the "Old Regime". Question could be raised as to why the statements from three different quarters and three different countries have coincided? Were it a deliberate effort to terrify the rebels who have already concluded their first round of talks with the Old regime? Or is it a diplomatic tact of the countries involved in sending chilling signals to the Maoist quarters to hasten the talks and bag whatever is provided to them? Have the statements come to strengthen the hands of the Nepali establishment at time of the talks with the rebels? If it is so then its corollary would be that the statements have come to weaken the "morale" of the rebels.

Analysts opine that the three different statements must have jolted the Maoist rebels from within. It is altogether a different matter to presume that the said statements could have weakened the morale of the rebels or not. But the fact is that such threat loaded statements does have its impact.

To begin with, it was India’s Home Ministry that declared recently that since the Nepali Maoists have connections with the People’s War Group, PWG, and hence the activities of the rebels must be carefully watched.

According to India, a corridor does exist that links the Nepali Maoists with the PWG men in Andhra Pradesh.

This Indian declaration has come at a time when the Nepali rebels have sat for talks. This has also come at a time when Indian side is yet to lift the terrorist tag from the Maoists. In effect it was India which labeled Maoists as terrorists much ahead of what the Nepali side did. This Indian apprehension has most significantly come after the Nepali Maoists demanded that the 1950 treaty with India be abrogated and the Open border with that country be regulated. This is significant and speaks of so many things unspoken.

Add to this the recent declaration of the Indian COAS Mr. Viz that a sizeable chunk of the Arms were to be soon dispatched to Nepal. This is loaded with political significance indeed.

All put together, what comes to the fore is that India is not happy with the Nepali establishment for having invited the rebels to talks.

But the hard fact is that if it is so then it is India again which had provided shelter to the Maoist rebels. This is surprising indeed. Keep on analysing.

The second major onslaught has definitely come from the lone super power-the United States.

Only recently the US signed an agreement with this country and assured the latter that she would continue her support to Nepal to curb the menace of terrorism. As if this were not enough to jolt the rebels, the United States the other day made it known to all and sundry that the Nepali Maoist insurgency in their eyes were a terrorist outfit.

Elaborating the US annual report which dubbed the Nepali insurgency as terrorists, the US Ambassador Michael E. Malinowski, Monday evening, however, made it amply clear that the Maoists here have been kept in the second list and that those falling in this second category are allowed time to correct themselves.

"Definitely, we are watching the activities of the Maoists. It is not the United States that put them in this place but their own acts of violence and terror has made them to be kept on that list. But yet when they have come for talks, we hope that the talks will succeed and the Maoists join the mainstream politics", so said the US Ambassador.

Analysing the Ambassadors’ comment what could now be fairly concluded is that the US possesses both carrot and stick for the Maoists.

Carrot for the Maoists is in the form of a hope that the Maoists join the mainstream politics and contribute to the development of the country. This is a carrot also because the list wherein the Maoists have been put is just a list which means that those falling in this category will be watched and if they mend their ways would be spared from the American wrath.

If not then the US will retaliate come what may. This was the implied message what the US Ambassador wished to hint the Maoists who have come to the table. This should be considered to be the stick.

How the Maoists will react to this Interview is not known. However, the Maoists leaders are supposed to have met one US Embassy Staffer, (Ms. Mahoney or Mr. Boggs?) recently apparently after the US signed an agreement with Nepal regarding combating the scourge of terrorism.

This should mean that the Maoists now wish to mend their differences with the Americans and appear to be in a mood to convince the US of their all-good intentions.

The third jolt came from the RNA quarters. The RNA TV program telecast Monday evening (the same evening when US Ambassador’s interview was telecast) which summarily hinted that the Nepali Army’s superiority over the Maoists insurgency have all been attained and the Maoists rebels will be at a loss to face the "highly equipped Nepali Royal Army" should the talks unfortunately failed. The RNA also made it clear that if the rebels once again entered into the jungles and tried to disrupt peace in the country would mean a disaster invited solely for themselves.

It is altogether a different matter whether it was a timely act of the RNA to send warning signals to the rebels at a time when they are on the table to settle the matter amicably or just the otherwise.

All put together, the Maoists are apparently being pressed from all possible quarters. Whether they would yield to these threats or retaliate in their own manner will have to be watched. It will also have to be watched as how these statements make an impact on the second round of talks with the government.

It will also have to be watched as to whether these warnings act like a catalyst or impedes the peace negotiations that are on at the moment.

Political parties expect the King to yield

Kathmandu: The stage is set for a major confrontation in between the monarch and the major parliamentary parties.

The parliamentary parties appear to have concluded that issuing threat loaded statements from their respective party offices and making lectures against the King will not work effectively.

Now they have declared a movement that will, say the organisers, continue ad infinitum until the King yields to their pressure and restored either the now dissolved parliament or forms an all-party government.

Analysts fail to understand the relevance and the rationale behind waging of such a movement at this critical juncture when the nation has yet to bring the seven-year Maoist insurgency to a positive conclusion and provide the nation a sort of permanent peace.

The parliamentary parties claim that the King must correct his constitutional blunders that began from the day he dismissed the Deuba government and installed Mr. L.B.Chand as the nation’s Prime Minister.

On May 4, these parliamentary parties lambasted the King for having crossed his constitutional limits and warned that should he continue to ignore the parliamentary parties would mean that the days for existence of the constitutional monarchy in the country were over.

Madhav Nepal-the UML leader was no less vocal in deriding at the King and his recent moves. Girija Prasad Koirala of the congress blamed the Nepali monarchy as to have been the root cause for the political instability in the country beginning 1950s.

Others toed Madhav’s and Girija’s line and conveyed their activists not to panic and that their days were round the corner. An effort at consoling their disillusioned and jobless activists who of late have begun questioning themselves as to why they have been blindly supporting their party leaders and that too free and unconditional. The patience of the cadres must be admired.

The listeners, mostly the students and their own party cadres and the unemployed youths who normally loiter around the Tundikhel area, listened to their leaders’ fiery speeches as usual.

Analysing the fiery speeches made by the disgruntled "democratic leaders" on that day, what comes to the fore, firstly, is that the speakers will not settle for less this time and would force the King to yield to their dictates. What also becomes clear , secondly, is that the leaders would not mind in creating a havoc in the country until the King himself submits to their political agenda. And thirdly, the political parties that had their representation in the last parliament would not care even if the peace process that has begun in between the rebels and the establishment gets derailed.

Finally, what was also clear from their fiery speeches that should the King yielded to their dictates, they would share the government to be formed later amongst themselves having no place for the Maoists.

Analysts opine that Madhav Nepal’s statements this time were much more critical of the King than his political Guru, Girija babu. The latter in turn made comments against the King as if he had some sort of very personal political enmity with the King and that he wished the King to kneel down in his front and apologise for his acts. In effect, Koirala and Mr. Nepal hinted that it were only these two great political souls in the country who should be elevated to the Chief executive post who could correct the anomalies seen in the country in the recent months. Implied was the message also that any one except the two could not bring the country back to the rails.

What was also evident from their routine rhetoric that the ongoing talks with the Maoists could not bag legitimacy if they were not in power and that it should be they who would conduct negotiations with the Maoists after the formation of a government demanded by the parliamentary parties.

The message was clear for the Maoists as well. The Maoists who wish a government comprising of men from various sectors of the society perhaps got a severe political blow that day when they were indirectly told that they will have no place in a government to be formed under the leadership of weither Koirala or Mr. Nepal.

Having learnt this, the Maoists still have supposedly told the movement wallahs that they will support the movement caring little that the parliamentary parties if allowed to control power as per their wish will certainly wish to minimize the role of the insurgents for varied understandable reasons.

What was surprising in the mass meeting that day was that none of the leaders talked of conducting the general elections and bring the derailed democracy on its original track. What they talked only centered around criticizing the monarch.

Clearly, if the monarch had to yield, he would have done so prior to May 4 jamboori. That he would go his way apparently became clear from the fact that he did not invite the leaders collectively before May 4th. The leaders reportedly had been waiting for a clear signal from the Palace until May 3 evening but had to go to their bed disheartened for the King preferred to see the strength of the parliamentary parties.

Analysts opine that the confrontation that is on in between the parliamentary parties is not going to serve any body’s interests.

Analysts also hasten to add that the King was allowed time to act in the larger interests of the nation late last year but could not do so for unknown reasons. That the population was in King’s favor got reflected then when the mass preferred not to come to the streets. Prime Minister Chand’s poor performance over the last months also contributed to the loss in the brighter image of the King which he had definitely at time he dismissed Deuba government.

All put together, the situation is still under control should the political parties and the King come to terms. If they fail to patch up their differences, any thing could happen.

13th International Press Freedom Day (Saturday, 3 May 2003)
Reporters Without Borders publishes its Annual Report on press freedom violations during 2002 in 156 countries and issues a new list of 42 predators of press freedom.

These are dark times for press freedom as the events of the past few weeks ­ nine journalists killed in Iraq and 26 journalists arrested and sentenced to prison terms in Cuba ­ have confirmed. Never before have there been so many journalists in prison around the world. All the indicators ­ including the numbers of journalists threatened and news media censored ­ show that things are getting worse.

Press freedom ­ FIGURES
Press freedom in 2002:
- 25 journalists were killed because of their opinions or while doing their work in 2002.
- 121 journalists were in prison at the end of 2002.
- Nearly 400 news media were censored in 2002.
- 700 journalists and media workers were detained for periods of varying length.
- There were twice as many physical attacks and threats as the year before.
- 1,420 reporters were beaten, threatened with death, kidnapped, charged or harassed.

Update: 1 January to 30 April 2003
17 journalists have been killed because of their opinions or while doing their work since the start of 2003.
128 journalists were in prison because of their opinions on 30 April 2003.
The worldıs biggest prisons for journalists are Cuba (30 detained), Eritrea (18), Burma (15), China (11) and Iran (10).

136 journalists and media workers have been detained since the start of 2003, 246 have been threatened or physically attacked and 120 news media have been censored.

Moscow appreciates Government-Maoists dialogue

Kathmandu: The Embassy of the Russian federation in Nepal through a press release issued on April 29 states that Moscow welcomes the commencement of a peaceful dialogue in Nepal.

The RF press release further states that " We express the hope for the combining of efforts by all the responsible political forces of friendly Nepal for the attainment of national reconciliation in the interest of strengthening democracy and of the social and economic progress of the country".

The full text of the RF press note reads as follows:

"On April 27 negotiations began in Kathmandu, the capital of Nepal, between the representatives of the Government and of insurgent forces with a view to searching for ways of a peaceful political settlement of the long-standing internal armed conflict. This event had been preceded by the announcement of a cease-fire at the end of January 2003.

Moscow welcomes the commencement of a peaceful dialogue in Nepal. We express the hope for the combining of efforts by all the responsible political forces of friendly Nepal for the attainment of national reconciliation in the interest of strengthening democracy and of the social and economic progress of the country".

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