I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
New polls tactics to unfold in days ahead!

Kathmandu: Now that the festival season is over, politics must inevitably take its traditional course. On the surface, three clear standpoints emerge. The Thapa government is going ahead with electoral plans begun with the appointment of officials to the locally elected posts as also indicated in his Tuesday afternoon press conference. The five agitating political parties have signaled once more their resolve to "correct" the alleged constitutional aberrations through agitation. The Maoists continue their hit and run strategy denying policy responsibilities on infra-structural destruction and controversial kidnappings while the armed forces appear to be gradually asserting their role over the Maoists.

Behind this public façade, however, are undercurrents which will shape these standpoints in actual implementation. Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa, predictably seeks to strengthen his organization and thus has triggered reaction within his own party. The political nominations have thus come under scrutiny from both the RPP as also inevitably the five opposing parties. The Maoists have found the appointments new targets for kidnapping and coercion.

The appointments, however, signal the building of spearheads at the local level where elections are targeted. It is possible thus to deduct attempts at new alignments in preparation for this development. Girija Prasad Koirala’s statements expressing his "readiness" to face elections although accompanied with serious doubts regarding the possibility of elections, opens possibilities in this direction.

It is thus possible to begin scratching such surfacial postures in search for possibilities for analysis is, for example, Prime Minister Thapa seeking a breach within RPP to field his invigorated organization at the local level? Is Koirala working in "tandem" Thapa for elections? Will the UML oblige?

Viewed in this light, the need for a more impartial electoral government suiting to the UML becomes imminent. Perhaps the coming days will unfold these new needs.

Maoists’ words and deeds differ

Kathmandu: Beyond doubt the Maoists have stepped up their violent activities.

In the process the insurgents have at times violated their own forceful assertions that henceforth they would not cause any damage to basic infrastructures and that there would be no killings and for that matter kidnappings of the activists of other political parties.

Comrade Prachanda a fortnight ago gave the national population to understand that his party would abide by its declarations firmly. The people had reasons to believe Comrade Prachanda’s statement made in favor of the nation and the political parties that are aboveground.

Nepali academia had then assured itself that with Prachanda’s fresh declaration, no development structures would be mercilessly demolished. The political parties contended themselves hoping that Prachand’s new statement offered them all a sigh of relief. In the same vein, the lay men at the "neglected level" took the Maoist supremo’s expressions in good faith and concluded that the insurgents apparently were in a mood to initiate talks with the Old regime should some one mediated their affair.

(Clearly, Comrade Prachanda is sincere in his words. His sincerity can’t be challenged. After all he heads a powerful organization. However, supposedly what is troubling him is that his cadres down at the grassroot level do not wish to obey his instructions. Could be that some one in Prachanda’s own party differs with Prachanda’s fresh commitments that assures the population that the insurgency would cause no damage to the basic infrastructures of the country. Does this mean that the a crack has now developed in the insurgency? Could also be that Prachanda’s instructions to trickle down to the cadre level will take some more time?)

Keep on gusessing.

However, what became apparent later is that Prachanda’s statement could make no difference at all which gets reflected from the news-galore of the doings by the Maoists cadres that went contra to their own supremo’s frank and bold admission.

The fact is that things remain as it were prior to Prachanda’s fresh assurance.

Independent analysts here wish to interpret Prachanda’s assertions in the light of the events that have taken place in the days of the festivals.

In effect, not so many people know about it. The fact is that Comrade Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai wrote an open letter addressed in the name of the incumbent American Ambassador, Michael E. Malinowski wherein he had suggested the US envoy not to meddle in the Nepali affairs. The letter dated September 26, 2003, from Dr. Bhattarai to Ambassador Malinowski implied that the Maoists would be more than happy if the US reduced its activities in this country.

How the Americans took the letter is not known. But what is known now is that apparently it is this letter of Dr. Bhattarai that compelled the US side to come up with the fresh notifications that now concludes the Maoists insurgency a group which poses a threat to the security of the US and its people. The Armitage statement and the instructions of the US Department of State that the Maoists would now be looked differently only supports to the analysts’ interpretation that Dr. Bhattarai’s letter in the name of Ambassador Malinowski was not taken in good taste by the Americans back home in Washington.

High placed sources in Kathmandu say that with the US new but apparently tough notification vis-à-vis the Nepali Maoists, the two i.e. the United States of America and the Maoists in Nepal are all set to confront each other. How they will confront each other is yet uncertain.

Nepali academia housed in the Tribhuwan University remain puzzled over the stance acquired by the insurgents vis-à-vis India. They question: "Why open letter only to Ambassador Malinowski? Why not such similar letters to other Ambassadors, more specially to the Indian envoy?

The academia, however, fail to understand as to why the Maoists, once upon a time a very strong critic of the Indian postures, do not see a need to protest the Indian penetration in the political affairs of this country. They recall how the Maoists in their forty-point demands had sought the summary abrogation of the controversial treaty of the 1950 with India.

Nepali intellectuals would love to know as to how the Insurgency under Comrade Prachanda and Dr. Bhattarai would wish to interpret their present day positions vis-à-vis India, mainly those four-points contained in their original forty point demand which basically were all against India. Have they changed their stance vis-à-vis India? Is it that they have been condemning the US so that Indian penetration remains as it is? Or is it that they have been doing all these sorts of US criticisms concluding that comparatively for the insurgency, the Indian establishment’s penetration would be friendlier that those of the US?

Nepali academia put it simply: Political penetration is same whether it comes all along from the US or from the Indian side. But what continued "friendly" penetration means, the leaders of the insurgency understand it better and perhaps it is these that had prompted to put on record the first four point in their original forty-point demand that stated clearly of Indian penetration or for that matter the Indian engagement in various spheres not in favor of this Himalayan Kingdom.

It is time that the Maoist insurgency explain their attitude towards India and her establishment vis-à-vis Nepali politics.

Koirala in the trap of Thapa’s conspiracy

Kathmandu: Congress President Girija Prasad Koirala is firm in his earlier stand that restoration of parliament could be the only solution to correct the constitutional blunders supposedly committed by the monarch. He now sees the need to wage a sort of unified battle until the King yields to his demands.

UML strongman, Madhav Nepal, has just returned upon completion of his two week plus piligrimage to India. Hopefully, he will now add to the strength of the agitation that got a brake due to the festivals. Intellectuals conclude that Madhav Nepal will now act as per the wishes of his Indian friends in order to press the King to yield.

A frustrated Madhav Nepal has already hinted upon his entry to Nepal that he and his party would spare no efforts to heighten the pitch of the agitation. Mr. Nepal by this time now must have clearly consoled his hearts that his chances for the post of a consensus prime minister have now gone save any miracle occurred in between.

Prime Minister Thapa in the mean time has opened up his conspiratorial sleeve wherein he has several ploys to mesmerize the agitating parliamentary parties. The latest announcement that he is all set to conduct elections in phase is definitely a ploy to deviate the agitationists from their original track.

The fact is that the democratic parties currently in agitation neither can face elections nor can deny it. It is this that has puzzled the parliamentary parties.

However, Koirala on the other front sees that there are series of conspiracies being hatched that has been regularly minimizing the role of the constitution and the constitutional councils. Koirala maintains that the non-fulfillment of the vacant posts of the constitutional councils was a ploy engineered by both the King and his prime minister.

To recall, only a week ago, Thapa had offered his political shield to the King for the delay in the announcement of the names for the vacant post of the Election commissioner and various other constitutional posts. Originally, it was being talked here that the King is delaying the nominations and in the process been minimising the constitution. However, Thapa bluntly retaliated to those allegations and instead opined that it was not the King but him causing the delay.

Thapa’s fresh utterances made Tuesday afternoon definitely hint at the fact that contrary to the widespread rumors that the King and his Prime Minister were not in good terms, things appear different. Thaps’s offering of a political shield to the King certainly makes it clear that both the King and his Prime Minister were not only in good terms but their would-be political plans too coincide: to recall both reiterate the need to go in for the elections in order to restore the derailed constitution and the constitutional processes.

The political parties must now, if it is true, gulp bitter pills.

Thapa will not resign. This becomes crystal clear from his bold assertions that he would not settle for less than going for the polls in his address to the nation made Tuesday afternoon. The long list of forward looking reforms announced by him Tuesday will definitely take time and that he appears determined to give his assurances a concrete shape by sticking to the chair wherein he is at the moment. The political parties have fallen in his conspiratorial trap.

What prompts Thapa to announce the elections is surprising indeed. The security situation is as bad as it was at time of Deuba’s Prime Ministership. Add to this, according to Deuba, it was Thapa then who viewed elections impossible during Deuba’s time. "The man who opposed elections then is now all set to conduct the elections with the security situation taking an all time low", so said Deuba recently. Other political parties have taken Thapa’s wish to conduct the elections as "big joke".

Now what becomes clear is that Thapa will conduct elections. Until the elections he would not resign much to the discomfiture of the aspirants of the Prime Ministerial post currently on agitation. Is it that Thapa has been assured by the Nepali army that they would take care of the elections if conducted phase-wise. What makes the RNA so confident in this regard is also a pertinent question. Or is it that Thapa is confident that the United States would come to the rescue of his government and help support his plans in order to face the Maoists effectively. He could have concluded this from the recent stance taken by the US vis-à-vis the Maoists. The fact is that Thapa wishes to isolate the Maoists from the national mainstream. How he succeeds in his venture will have to be seen.

Or is it simply a ploy to deviate the minds of the political parties from agitation?

ON top of that, what appears certain, academic presume, is that Thapa is currently enjoying uninterrupted blessings from the same establishment which has been prompting the agitating parties to continue their agitation until the King yielded.

Be that as it may, given these ground realities what is sure is that the agitation will continue. But the intellectuals would love to see an interim order that conducts the elections.

Not so many people know that Koirala is in favor of having elections and hence has agreed to face the elections if polls declared. Does this mean that Koirala and Madhav Nepal now differ on count of the elections. Questions are being raised as to what political concessions Thapa has assured Koirala that he would provide the latter in case he supported the election agenda of the former.

Thaps’s conspiracy appears to have worked which, if true, is sure to create fissures in the agitating parties’ loose bonds.

Ambassador Akram favors initiating dialogue between different cultures

Kathmandu: The Pakistan Ambassador, Mr. Zamir Akram, has alleged that certain forces in Nepal have set their agenda aimed at maligning his country and in the process defame Pakistan.

He however, did not mention as to which forces were in motion in this country to defame his country.

Ambassador Akram made these observations on 28 October at an interaction program initiated by the Embassy itself.

Nevertheless he made it abundantly clear that despite the occurrences of such moves against his country, Nepal-Pakistan bilateral relations were at an excellent level. "We have been supporting Nepali Army by providing non-lethal items", added the Ambassador.

When asked if his country could support in curbing the threats of the Maoists insurgency, the Pakistani envoy said that first the request has to come from the Nepali side. In his opinion, if such a request is made by Nepal, his country could train the security personnel on how to move.

"We are ready to share our own experiences while dealing with the insurgents", Ambassador Akram divulged.

The Ambassador gave the impression that his country would love to offer their experience and expertise should the Nepali side made a proposal on that regard.

Talking on the fresh proposals made by New Delhi in order to remove irritants between the two countries, Ambassador Akram maintained that the proposals recently sent by New Delhi for the perusal of Islamabad contained some points which his country had already made and sent to Delhi’s perusal.

There is nothing new in Delhi’s proposal but yet it’s a good move, said the Ambassador.

According to the Pakistani diplomat, until the core issues of Kashmir were not addressed, proposals do not hold much meaning. "It’s like a patient being administered a paracetamol instead of being provided with Cortisone to what he needed in effect", said the Ambassador.

The Pakistani diplomat did not hide his displeasure on Israel and India coming closer in the recent months.

"The delivery of Israel’s sophisticated weapons to India is bound to destabilize not only this part of the world but beyond that it will have its negative impact", continued the Ambassador.

According to Ambassador Akram, Israel is a conduit of the US weapons which had been denied in the past to India and other countries", went on the diplomat.

He lamented over the stance acquired by certain countries of the developed West on the Muslims and Islam as a religion and suggested those countries to refrain from such activities.

He warned that the growing alienation of the Muslims and Islam in the West might bring the Clash of Civilization, the Christianity versus the Muslims, much nearer as predicted by Samuel P. Huntington.

He however, made it clear that to avert this dangerous trend, a sort of dialogue in between different cultures have got to be initiated.

On a query, Ambassador Akram hinted that King Gyanendra’s Pakistan visit might materialize early next year only.

On yet another question on the surety of the SAARC Summit taking place on schedule, he said that South Asia has many surprises to offer to the world.

Democratic governance succeeds to include all the sections of the populace: Experts

Kathmandu: The Nepal Foundation for Advanced Studies (NEFAS), to recall, initiated the series on civic education programme several years ago to play its part in strengthening democracy in Nepal. Friedrich Ebert Stiftung of Germany, notably, has been the main supporter of the programme series under its ‘democratization’ initiative in the newly democratizing countries.

In that sense, NEFAS has been the forerunner in organizing civic education programmes in the country and has already held more than a dozen discussions with teachers, politicians, journalists and people of various other walks of life in different parts of the Kingdom, from the east to the west. Today, several other organizations have started to work on civic education in Nepal as well.

A text-book for higher secondary students has already been developed and has been widely used by students to fill the textbook void in their civic education curriculum. The attraction of NEFAS programmes for civic educationists is that their output has always been taken seriously and even published. The textbook mentioned above has in fact undergone several metamorphoses just to include as many suggestions as possible. Every edition has incorporated the discussions of the seminars which has again been taken to the teachers for additional inputs. That process still continues.

It is in this process that NEFAS organised the discussion on October 19, 2003, in the civic education series on 19 October, 2003 titled "Civic Education: Role of Youths in Local Governance" in Kathmandu. This seminar is a milestone in NEFAS’ attempts to facilitate civic education in Nepal as it has begun to merge sectoral concerns with the main topic. Local Governance was chosen for this one. Since democracy is itself multifaceted, future seminars will keep adding to the list.

Local governance experts, teachers, political party workers and academicians were assembled in the capital for the discussion. The discussions started without the usual seminar fanfares with the executive director of NEFAS, Ananda Srestha welcoming the participants and Dev Raj Dahal highlighting the topic to be discussed. Ananda Srestha in his welcome address said that the objective of the workshop was not to impose some imported ideas on the participants, but to gather opinion of people from different walks of life. He hoped that the traditional values would guide the participants towards a meaningful discussion. However, he welcomed other issues of social importance if they had relevance to the topic being discussed. DevRaj Dahal for his part said that the objective of the seminar was to find out ways to include youths in local self-governance. "Why do we need to do this? Since a paradigm shift has taken place regarding running the affairs of the state, from government to governance, every section of people needed to be included in governance. Again, since youths make up a vital part of the population, they too need to be accommodated in governance. Only democratic governance tries to include all the sections of the populace," he said.

After the brief addresses by the two, the working sessions began to discuss the issues of the day. The seminar was divided into two sessions, the first was chaired by Krishna Bahadur Bhattachan, a sociologist. Ram Kumar Dahal a political scientist, made his presentation on "Role of Youths in Local Self-Governance".

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