I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Thapa-Girija nexus consolidate strength

Kathmandu: As much as the current cabinet finds politics in projecting a picture of longevity for the sake of credibility, the general assumption is that Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa is merely postponing his departure from government. After having unsuccessfully attempted to bring the Palace into controversy over the key constitutional appointments, they remain vacant—Thapa’s dangled offer of an expansion of the cabinet remains equally in limbo. Indeed, the supposed enlarged cabinet is not likely to emerge now that the Prime Minister’s detractors in his own party appears to be aware of the meanings of such offer. There is likelihood that the party may distance itself from the Prime Minister.

Adding to the conclusive elements predicting change is the fact that one key supporter of the Prime Minister’s express determination to conduct the elections, is Mr. Girija Prasad Koirala. He has doubted the possibility of elections but has said that he will participate in case it is held. Given the longstanding Thapa-Girija relations, this is said to have been read as enough indication that the two are acting in cohort. Thapa from government and his coterie, it is felt, will share the electoral table with the congress-Girija and Thapa will use the King’s authority to his own and Koirala’s benefit.

Such ominous readings inevitably have sent flutters in the UML camp. Privately, the UML leaders are saying that it is time that the King "master" a more independent and participatory cabinet. This despite their public rumblings on a new phase of an opposition program of the five parties led by "Commander" Girija.

Significantly, while there are plenty of indications that the UML is willing and could dodge their original demand for a Madhav Nepal led ministry to bless the King’s actions of October 4, last year, it is said that Girija Prasad Koirala and his camp is not likely to dump the agitation he leads for sake of participation. In this sense any government change now without Koirala’s participation and in the absence of a Thapa in government makes it predictable that the "liberal" mantle will likely be cashed in upon for elections by these two strage allies.

Koirala has carrot and stick both for the King and Maoists!

Kathmandu: Nepali Congress president Girija Prasad Koirala has begun blowing hot and cold.

If he has on the one hand carrot for the King then he is apparently ready to take up the stick for the King concurrently.

Analyzing his Birganj speeches he made the other day wherein he possesses both for the King, what comes to thew fore is that he was ready for both: join hands with the King to crush the Maoists or for that matter join hands with the Maoists to press the King to yield to his and the agitating political parties’ demand.

President Koirala, therefore, appears all prepared for embracing both the diametrically opposed political stand in order to satisfy his political ego.

Speaking in Birganj Koirala ventilated his anger by saying what he had not said before, " it was possible to ally with the Maoists". In saying so Koirala appears determined to use this rather unusual political ploy in order to restore what he says the derailed constitution and the system in its original track.

However, there is one condition he has set for the Maoists. "Provided Prachanda keeps his words of not damaging the development infrastructure or murder unarmed security personnel", is all what Koirala would wish to get from the Maoists rebellions prior to his shaking hands with them.

But then how the Maoists would react to Koirala’s harsh conditions will have to be watched.

However, the fact is that though Comrade Prachanda could have been serious in his fresh pronouncements of not harming the development basis of the country, the ground reality is that his words were not being either honored or taken for granted by the men he commands. This forces one to conclude that Prachanda has got to be much tougher vis-à-vis his own cadres at the grassroots or even prepared to ensure penal actions against all those who have been defying his orders made in all earnestness apparently.

To recall, comrade Prachanda in one of his fresh statements had appealed the agitating democratic parties not to distrust his political commitments for a multi-party competition.

It is perhaps in this context, president Koirala’s attention could have been drawn. For president Koirala, Prachanda’s commitments for a multi-party competition must have come as a bolt from the blue and hence he could have decided that Koirala-Prachanda friendship was possible. However, the would-be friendship in between the two diametrically opposing forces is not bereft with harsh conditions. If Prachanda assures the agitating political parties that he and his party might support their cause only after the Maoists mission is over. Koirala on the other pushes his condition by stating that he could bring in the support of the Maoists only if Prachanda keeps his promises made in the recent days.

For a lay man, neither of the two conditions appears feasible in the given scheme of things in the country. Neither Prachanda could win a battle with his opponent in Singh Durbar so easily as he expects it to be so, nor Koirala would shake hands with Prachanda until and unless the Maoists remain up to their freshly made promises of not destroying the infrastructures. Analysts predict that even if Prachanda is serious in his statements, his own cadres will defy his orders so that, time permitting, the rebels could negotiate with the government with the "position of strength". Accepting Prachanda’s instructions would mean talking to the government with hands down.

Nevertheless, both appear to have compulsions to appease each other for obvious reasons.

But then what if Prachanda supports the agitating five? This is a question indeed that deserve deep analysis.

Firstly, the moment Maoists join hands with Commander Koirala, his agitation becomes weighty. In the process, violence could be predicted beforehand. The establishment presumably will retaliate fiercely and hence number of killings on both the sides will be considerable. However, what is for sure is that whosoever is killed will definitely be a Nepali by all means.

Secondly, if the violence goes out of control, the establishment might be prompted to invite foreign forces to quell the violence. This means foreign powers in the neighborhood might make it a ruse to establish a sort of their permanent station citing that any political turmoil in Nepal might threaten their own security concerns. Guess works only.

Thirdly, Nepal will surely be declared a failed state by the international community.

Coming back to Koirala’s statement that hints that he could join hands with the King as well. In effect Koirala says that it was time that the King and the democratic forces unite to sort out the issues confronting the nation. In saying so, Koirala is hinting at quelling the threats posed to the country by the Maoists. This again means that Koirala is also thinking on the lines on how to arrest the Maoists threats. Analysts say Koirala means that if the King supported their demands and restored the parliament and formed an all-party government, he will in turn help support the King to curb the threats of the Maoists.

How the Maoists take Koirala’s having both carrot and stick for the Maoists as well will have to be seriously watched.

Nevertheless, Koirala’s fresh statement made in Birganj does indicate that he is a frustrated man now who could lean to any side wherefrom he is assured of tangible support. Here again, how his own activists take up Koirala’s double standard talks will also have to be watched.

UML differs with Congress-K stance; Deuba party no more untouchable one
The ball is in King’s court-UML

Kathmandu: The leader of the UML, Madhav Kumar Nepal, is thinking the country’s politics in a different way, it seems.

That the UML now slightly differs with the strategy adopted by the commander of the ongoing movement, Shri Girija Prasad Koirala, becomes clear from the fresh decisions taken by the UML at its recently concluded meeting.

The UML, for example, has taken serious note of the present politics as it stands today and has in the process devised certain strategies that, the UML leaders hope, if brought into action might open the gates for a long awaited reconciliation in between the political parties and the constitutional monarch.

The party now believes that the King must listen to their pleas in order to bring out the country from the present crisis.

"Henceforth the UML will plead for the establishment of an all-party government for the sake of peace and democracy", is what the UML has decided in its recently concluded cameral meeting.

The UML leaders hope that their newly arrived at decisions will provide the King a golden opportunity to join hands with the political parties and jointly work for bringing back the derailed system and the constitution to its original track.

The UML in its decision has gone extra miles, it appears. The party has apparently suspended its plea that its party leader Madhav Nepal be allowed to function as the nation’s prime minister as had been agreed in between the agitating parties prior to the convening of the present day agitation some five months back.

The party now maintains that it will console itself if the King agrees to form a government from among the political parties represented in the now dissolved parliament. This means that the would be government might not necessarily be headed by the UML leader Madhav Nepal. This would be new policy of the UML and the party will stick to its new formulations, say insiders of the UML.

Analysts say that the UML’s new policy overtures appear to have been guided by broad thinking of containing the threats and finding of a permanent solution to the issues and the problems that have of late been plaguing the nation.

Indeed, a grand departure from its previous stands.

However, analysts also suspect the UML recent moves. The UML policy has been announced at a time when president Koirala has declared bluntly that he would no more be interested in occupying the old-and-junk prime ministerial chair. If Koirala sticks to his words, then automatically the coveted chair goes to Madhav Nepal. The fact is that Madhav Nepal will be the only contender to that coveted chair for the leaders of the meager political parties neither could dare a claim to that chair nor will presumably be told to occupy the chair. This means that the chair which Madhav Nepal tried for long in the recent past but failed miserably is coming to him his way.

For the King also, the UML’s changed stance must have come as a surprise. For the King, the UML is now a modest and mild party which wishes the country’s issues sorted out amicably by forging an alliance in between the forces which repose trust in democracy and the system. IN effect this is what the King said so on his constitutional day message.

Nevertheless, what must not be forgotten here is that the UML has revised its stance only after the UML leader, Mr. Nepal, returned from his Delhi pilgrimage. Should this mean that the new strategy is not the UML’s brainchild but instead that of Delhi?

The UML now sees the ball in the King’s court. The party says that the King should exploit this golden opportunity and proceed in a manner that not only enhances his democratic credentials but also allows him to forge unity with the forces who have of late been up against him.

It is altogether a different matter as to how the King takes up the UML’s proposals.

The UML, a party in the ongoing agitation, has also come up with a new decision. The Deuba congress which till the other day remained as an untouchable political entity for the UML and its allies, is no more that now. At least for the UML, the Deuba congress has suddenly become a touchable one. However, the UML’s decision on the Deuba congress must have come as a blow to the congress-Girija.

Should this mean that the UML in doing so has hinted the Koirala congress that it would go its way come what may. Should this further mean that there has been a great rift in between the agitating parties on how to proceed with the agitation?

The key still lay with the King for initiating reconciliatory efforts, says the UML. The UML would wish to see whether the King acquires a reconciliatory posture or prefers to go alone and invite confrontation. "It is up to the King to chose one among the two options", writes Pradip Gyanwali in Dristi weekly dated 18 November.

Thapa to visit New Delhi as SAARC Chairperson
Will politics take a new turn ?

Kathmandu: Prime Minister Thapa is all set to proceed to New Delhi next week.

Analysts say that Nepalese politics will presumably take a new turn upon Thapa’s return from New Delhi.

However, Thapa is making a trip to Delhi as the current Chairperson of the SAARC movement.

To recall, Thapa is visiting Delhi at a time when his colleague in the UML, Madhav Kumar Nepal, has just returned from his India pilgrimage and finalised a new policy to deal with the crisis at home.

Add to this, Madhav Nepal went for this pilgrimage when NC stalwart, Ram Chandra Poudel, already had made such a trip to India. Upon return from India visit, Poudel summarily dismissed Madhav Nepal as a consensus candidate of the five agitating parties for the post of the Prime Minister. Poudel’s blunt remarks must have jolted Madhav Nepal from within.

If this were not enough, the septuagenarian congress leader, Krishna Prasad Bhattarai is yet in India who, reports reveal, met with several Indian leaders and talked on how to enhance Nepal-India bilateral ties.

This is not all. Shri Chakra Prasad Bastola, a NC man who is considered to have established close links with the Maoists leaders is also in Delhi, say media reports. To recall, it was Mr. Bastola who presumably brought Koirala face to face with comrade Prachanda. To grace this rare opportunity, Koirala upon completion of his China trip two years ago preferred to land in Delhi instead of Kathmandu which is what he should have done, diplomatically speaking.

What makes the Delhi trips so important no body knows.

However, the fact is that as and when Nepali leaders feel "uncomfortable" in Nepal, politically speaking, they prefer to enjoy their few days in the neighboring country. What makes them so comfortable in Delhi or for what purposes they intend to be in Delhi is a matter that is being discussed in this country since all along 1950s. The fact is also that Nepali leaders’ Delhi trip(s) have yet remained a mystery which will remain a mystery ad infinitum.

Analysts say that it is not the fault of Delhi. The fault lay right here in Nepal. "For our own weaknesses, let’s not blame New Delhi", say mature political analysts here.

Prime Minister Thapa is likely to appraise his friends in New Delhi about the measures he is currently taking in order to curb the threats of the Maoists and in all probability will seek the Indian understanding and support for his rule in this Kingdom. He might use this visit to consolidate his rule until the elections that he has already hinted in the recent past.

How New Delhi satisfies Prime Minister Thapa will have to be watched.

Back home, former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has bluntly said that the King’s active rule since October 4, last year, too have not been able to satisfy the aspirations of the people. According to him, the law and order situation has become more worse than what had been during his own tenure; the conflict is all the more on an increase; chances for holding elections still appear remote and that country’s economy has definitely gone down.

"The King so far has not been able to bag any tangible success by sacking me from the prime ministerial post", said Deuba talking to Dristi weekly dated November 18, 2003.

When asked to comment what the King said to him at his last meeting with the monarch, Deuba says: " When the King asked me what the people said these days, he said that the people told him that injustice was done to Deuba by the monarch.

How the King took your response?

"He did not respond", concluded Deuba.

Deuba, however, maintains that until and unless the King wishes himself to remain as a real constitutional monarch, the tussle in between the political parties and the King will continue as it is now.

Kahane expresses concern over Nepal situation
Media men demand right to information

-Niraj Aryal

Kathmandu: The President of the Nepalese Federation of Journalists Mr. T.N.Dahal modestly accepted that Nepal as a nation-State alone was not in a position to solve the on-going conflict and favored UN’s role as a third party mediator. "The UN role should be not taken otherwise by the warring rivals", Dahal opined.

He was speaking at a one-day workshop organized jointly by the Federation of Nepalese Journalists and the UN system, Nepal.

The newly arrived UN resident coordinator, Mr. Matthew Kahane said he had arrived here to take up his new assignments at a time when his host country, Nepal, has been affected by an ever increasing home-grown conflict and that this conflict had already cost the lives of thousands of its citizens, disrupted the lives and livelihoods of tens-scores of thousands of its citizens, destroyed various development structure worth millions and millions.

This worsening situation in the country had aroused great concern in the international community more so of the United Nations, and particularly that of the Secretary General, Kofi Annan, added Kahane.

He said this workshop has been organized at a time when the Nepal Law Reform Commission has just presented a draft bill on the Right to Information to his Majesty’s Government. He said World Summit on the Information Society would be held in Geneva from 10 to 12 December 2003 therefore this workshop has more importance.

Senior Journalists Mr. Harhar Birahi who is concurrently the Chairman of the Press Council, Nepal, speaking on the occasion said though the country is now facing a constitutional crisis, the journalists are not demanding for more freedom but they just want to use the rights which has been already guaranteed by the constitution. He further said though the news papers are writing facts, the leaders do not seem to follow them and said this has been the root cause of the conflict.

In the work shop, two papers were presented. While Dr. Ram Krishna Timilsina presented a paper on Communication and Human Rights, then T.N.Dahal, the President of the FNJ presented a separate paper on the topic of Trend and Experience of Media in Current Conflict Situation of Nepal.

As Dr. Timilsina presented his rather more theoretical paper, he had to face scathing criticisms from his own friends at the Supreme Court. The scene took almost an ugly turn when the paper presenter and the critics attending the workshop started exchanging mudslinging at each other. The scene reminded one of a sort of battle in the making.

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