I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Thapa to go, RPP to split

Kathmandu: Kamal Thapa, senior most minister in the Surya Bahadur Thapa cabinet during the Prime Minister’s current absence let the cat out of the bag at a reporters club gathering by hinting that he would favor a split in the RPP rather than have his Prime Minister bow to party demands that he resigns.

This gives credence to unsubstantiated rumors that the insistence on forming a small cabinet of Surya Bahadur Thapa colleagues in the RPP was designed, rather than to invite participation, to build the Thapa potentials within the party. If Chand was the sole RPP member in the previous government, the Thapa cabinet distinguishes itself by being fully RPP. If outside the other mainstream parties, the large Chand cabinet had pointedly inculcated other participants. The Thapa cabinet is solely RPP. If Chand resigned acknowledging inability for wider participation, Thapa refuses to do so even when the party reminds him of his wider responsibilities in which he has starkly failed.

To boot, Surya Bahadur Thapa who opposed the Chand appointment on grounds of his version of democracy now says that he is responsible to the King and not to the party which he helped found. Unwittingly thus, he has now set the ground rules for his own departure. It will be the King who must fire him for his inability so that a cabinet more forthcoming in representation may preside over the elections in order to kick-start a constitution which is on hold as accepted by the duly elected parliament currently dissolved.

It is now clear that the impediment that keep constitutionalism from rolling, namely, partisanship of the extreme kind, is as much imbibed in the Thapa ministry which has been charged to remove it in order for the constitution to prevail.

This new certainty, that the King must dismiss Thapa is a widely accepted recent development that has triggered a flurry of activities in the political sector since last week. If the Thapa-Koirala alignments in preparation for the inevitable elections was only now uncovering itself, the decision to split the party will perhaps bring the two standpoints closer and open with Thapa’s public reaction to dismissal triggering it.

On the other hand, the possibility of such alignment already in making is likely to be countered by the other mainstream parties who would not want to be left out from an election government that must, furthermore, devise a policy to surmount the Maoists problem to conduct elections itself.

It is in this line of thought also that the sudden flurry of activities in the RPP mainstream may be viewed. Equally important is the gradual conciliatory stand of the Deuba congress. Of course, the UML which is the largest party outside the congress must seem poised for the change. And so none other than Madhav Nepal must risk a trip to Lucknow, India, to visit the Maoists and comeback saying publicly that he expects major change.

As Nepal later qualified, the change is expected after Prime Minister Thapa’s nine day SAARC sojourn which, curiously, makes two New Delhi stoppages while a Kathmandu break is scheduled only in transit at the Tribhuban International Airport.

Thapa will resign; Thapa will not resign!

Kathmandu: The UML leader Madhav Kumar Nepal is in action.

President Koirala must act accordingly. So should do the men handling the troubled RPP now.

Sacked Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba could in no way be an exception to the rule and thus his activities suggest that he too is in the race much the same way as his colleagues in other parties are.

The smaller parties now housed in the five party coalitions have been forced to watch the politics initiated suddenly by their partners in the agitation. Frustrated as they are, the leaders of the smaller parties, however, were no fools. They understand that the bigger parties were in a race to catch bigger fish should the emerging politics allow.

Prime Minister Thapa too is not unaware of the conspiratorial politics initiated by his colleagues inside his own party or for that matter by those who aspire now the prime ministerial post by unseating him.

The donor community too has hinted that Thapa’s government was not a "representative one" and thus they surely wish the formation of an all-party government which later takes initiatives for the stalled talks with the Maoists and conducts elections.

Prime Minister Thapa, a known conspiratorial brain of the highest order, must be active to counter the sudden spurt of activities that have been initiated of late all aimed at unseating him from his current post.

That he is more than active comparatively speaking becomes clear from this news which reads in part: "Prime Minister Thapa and Indian Prime Minister Bajpayee met privately for ten minutes".

This news coming as it does from Delhi is bound to have its political impact in Kathmandu for obvious political reasons. President Koirala and General Secretary Madhav Nepal better understand as to what it means when Nepal’s Prime Minister meets his Indian counterpart and that too for ten exclusive minutes without any assistants.

The King is thus visibly pressed. He must act now. Failing to act at this opportune moment will instead of easing the issues confronting the nation will compound to the extent that he might not be able to bring things under control.

Does this all hint that Nepal awaits for a major political change for the better? Interpretations may vary but what is for sure is that the country is poised for a change and the change must bring positive results.

President Koirala needs a change. In seeking a change to the current status quo, all that he now needs the restoration of the dissolved parliament and if that is so he wouldn’t mind even his arch rival Deuba is elevated to the ranks of the country’s prime minister. Definitely this is a change in Koirala’s perception of the things vis-à-vis Deuba.

There is yet another change in Koirala of late. He now wishes to see Comrade Prachanda "officially" some time later. This change in him is apparently the result of the fact that Madhav Nepal, who now apparently differs with him on so many counts, accomplished what in essence he should have done. Koirala upon listening that Madhav Nepal already met with Prachanda and could have struck some political deals favoring the UML, is all tempted to see the leader in exile so that he too could extract from the Maoists supremo for his party’s favor. However, Koirala’s men appear not that enthusiastic in their leaders’ wish to have a chit-chat with Maoist leader for some in the congress say that "to strike a deal with the Maoists in favor of the ongoing agitation would tantamount to committing a suicide for the congress".

It is however, not yet clear whether Koirala is meeting Prachanda to win his hearts in favor of the agitation or seducing the leader in exile for the restoration of peace?

Could be both. Could be not.

This notwithstanding, the fact is that both Koirala and Madhav Nepal have been meeting Comrade Prachanda on a regular basis. Madhav Nepal officially met Prachanda twice. Koirala met once through the king courtesy of George Fernandes. Koirala’s aide de camph, Chakra Bastola, is talked to be in regular contact with Prachanda and his colleagues. Hopefully, other leaders too have their own channels and could have been meeting the Maoist leader in private from time to time. However, their meetings do not hit the media headlines for obvious reasons.

Needless to say, the venue each and every time is thus Indian territory which stretches from Siliguri, Delhi and now to Lucknow.

Kathmandu will begin, hopefully, boiling politically speaking, the moment Prime Minister Thapa lands here. He is sure to be greeted negatively by his detractors in his own party and the political enemies from other contending forces. For example, Madhav Nepal has his own schemes to unseat Thapa. Koirala, for the time being is in his favor hoping that Thapa upon his return will save his dwindling prestige by appealing the King for the restoration of the parliament. Deuba too is hoping that should the King restore the parliament and should Madhav Nepal support his candidature, he is once again the Prime Minister. Madhav Nepal, reportedly, enjoys the support of Deuba and a sizeable chunk of the agitating RPP stalwarts.

Undoubtedly, RPP chairman Mr. Rana, too is a contender to the Premier post should the King instead of selecting Madhav and Deuba preferred him. Some quarters find meaning in Mr. Rana’s sudden seeking resignation from Prime Minister Thapa. Others say, resignation and Thapa never go together.

The open million-dollar question is: Will Thapa resign under pressure? Will he be sacked by the King upon his return from SAARC trip? What if Thapa goes against King’s sacking him unceremoniously citing that he is a prime minister who enjoyed executive powers? Will that exclusive "ten minutes" in Delhi be able to shield Thapa from the barrage of political onslaughts that eagerly awaits him in Kathmandu? These are some pertinent questions that will apparently rock the country for a while if the change we are talking is round the corner.

Madhav Nepal’s Lucknow trip embarrasses New Delhi

Kathmandu: The leader of the UML, Madhav Kumar Nepal did wrong. No! He did a splendid job.

Madhav Nepal is in the news, both in the electronic and the print media for an act that he just accomplished last week which concurrently is bringing for him accolades and condemnations.

Nepali academicians appear to take Madhav Nepal’s clandestine trip to Lucknow, India, in a different manner.

Some say his going to Lucknow for a meeting with the Maoists supremo Comrade Prachanda, was a timely one in the sense that some one from some responsible quarters had to initiate this job and that Madhav Nepal in doing so has paved the way for the resumption of the now stalled talks with the maoists.

Others say that Madhav Nepal should not have gone to a "foreign country" in his present day responsible capacity of being the Opposition leader of Nepal and in doing so he, read Madhav Nepal, did not even took note of the diplomatic etiquette and the required protocols as is demanded when such a high personality of his stature visits an alien land.

"Madhav Nepal’s sudden and unannounced trip to Lucknow was made by the political personality as if the place he visited to meet Prachanda and his colleagues were an expanded territory of Nepal", commented an academician associated with the Tribhuban University. He further opines that Madhav Nepal’s being in Lucknow last week must have embarrassed the Indian establishment for obvious political reasons. Elaborating further, the academic personality maintains that Mr. Nepal’s presence in Lucknow last week, for good or for bad, exposes the fact that prominent Maoists’ leaders reside in India and that the Indian establishment in one way or the other must be aware of it.

The fact is that the Indian establishment denies this general assumption here which got reflected in the issuance of the denial of any such meeting held in between Madhav Nepal and Maoists leaders in Lucknow by the Indian embassy staffer here.

But if one were to believe Mr. Nepal’s assertion that he met his Maoists friends at the Kapur Hotel in Lucknow then it becomes clear that Nepali Maoists reside in India which, say other set of academics, not necessarily be in the knowledge of the host country.

Reports have it that Madhav Nepal left the Nepali territory last Wednesday morning secretly. However, the secret remained no more a secret when the media people declared that Mr. Nepal already proceeded towards Lucknow. Later it was made known that Prachanda met Mr. Nepal at the hotel mentioned above and had talks for all along five hours.

Reports also revealed that Prachanda arrived Lucknow the same day from an unknown destination to meet Madhav Nepal.

The academics who give plus points to Madhav Nepal’s trip to Lucknow say that given the political stalemate in the country and given the chaotic situation due to the two-way battle in between the Maoists and the security forces, some one of the stature of Madhav Nepal should have initiated this move. "What is the harm in initiating such moves that bodes well for the country and its people", adds the academic belonging to the other set.

According to him, what Madhav Nepal has done in effect should have been done by the State actors. In absence of any overtures from the state actors, Madhav Nepal shouldered this responsibility. "What is the harm when one Nepali leader meets another equally important Nepali leader in Indian territory", continues the TU scholar.

"If intentions are sincere and if the motives are clear and if such meetings in any way supported the peace process to resume, I see no reason to dismiss Mr. Nepal’s claims that his meetings with Prachanda will go a long way for the country’s cause.

Be that as it may, however, there is yet another section of Nepali intellectuals who point blank maintain that Madhav Nepal in having materialised his secret trip to Lucknow, which never was a secret trip by any political measure, only helped embarrass the government in Delhi for obvious political reasons.

Question now arises: Did Madhav make this Lucknow trip informing Delhi in advance? If that were so , why the Indian embassy denial ? Or is it that the denial was just for Nepali consumption? Did Mr. Nepal exceed his diplomatic limits? Or was it a ploy to embarrass India? Or Madhav Nepal went to Lucknow at the suggestions of the international community who wish the early restoration of peace and the installment of a "representative" government in Kathmandu.

Who else better knows than Monsieur Nepal, the leader of the main opposition who is, by way of protocol, is already the Prime Minister in waiting.

How Nepal pleads his case and justifies his trip to Lucknow will have to be watched.

Politics of Liberation, Life and Choice
Country in crisis due to disharmony between state and society

Our Correspondent

Center for Social Transformation, Nepal (CST) and Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) organized a one-day seminar on "Energizing Social movement in Nepal for Better Social Justice," on November 21 in Kathmandu. Altogether 65 participants representing Dalit, youth, women, ethnic groups and nationalities and trade unions participated the seminar. Five theme papers were presented on ethnic, scheduled caste, youth, women and trade union movements in Nepal. The program was moderated by Prof. Krishna P. Khanal and chaired by Narahari Acharya, a central committee member of Nepali Congress Party. Participants viewed that the country is in crisis due to disharmony between the state and the society. The task for political leaders is to transform this disharmony and conflict into peace process. The role of social movements is to energize the power of public and prepare for forward-looking reforms.

Emerging social movements in Nepal capture the plurality of life-world asserting their diverse needs, rights and responsibilities before the state. This assertion is also related to the question of "state ownership" and the regeneration of political process so that it can become socially and politically representative. Most of social movements in Nepal are seeking for structural change. Especially ethnic groups are its leading exponents while Dalits, women, youth and trade unions are seeking for affirmative action. Inclusionary democracy, identity, social justice and participation are their central concerns. Prof. Khanal argued that political parties in Nepal became weak because they did not take the agenda of social movements groups when they came t power and, as a consequence, social transformation has been delayed. Narahari Acharya believed that regression and political radicalism began in the country as a result of the weakness of constitution-oriented parliamentary poitical parties. Five parties combine are taking the reform agenda now because of compulsion, rather than choice.

Dev Raj Dahal of FES argued that the emerging social movement of Dalits, Women, youth, trade unions and civil society in Nepal is politicizing the everyday life of Nepalese people and allowing the power of society to self-organize, communicate and effect collective action. He added, "this movement has produced a critical mass outside the hegemonic political class representing the state which is trying to construct a plural public spheres capable of representing the social microcosm of the nation into political power." The question remains can this movement combine sectoral social action with larger public action?

Health ministry official admits fault

Kathmandu: Nepal’s experts associated with the health sector have underlined the need for a sort of revision in the existing governmental policies on HIV/AIDS.

At a programme organised last Saturday by the Conscious Media Forum, experts opined that the existing policies acquired by the State have so far remained unable to control the varied aspects relating to the deadly disease.

Experts unanimously maintained that poverty was one prime factor that is heavily related to the cause and the spread of AIDS.

The chief of the health sector at the National Planning Commission Padma Mathema revealed that the nation’s Tenth Plan has taken proper note of HIV/AIDS and kept in priority.

"Since the disease is deeply rooted in the poverty stricken sector in the rural areas and hence efforts must be directed in order to alleviate poverty", Mathema added.

Action Aid, Nepal Chief, Mr. Sibesh Chandra regmi, maintained that the sectors of the society who were being exploited and oppressed by the society were the ones to have been forced to adopt acts of unsafe sex and hence the spread of the disease.

Mr. Beni Bahadur Karki, Planning section of the health ministry, admitted that the frequent changes in the government also has been one of the causes that they have not been able to work in this regard effectively.

Participants lauded the support of the Action Aid and said that their support has gone in the safe hands.

The program of the Forum saw no personality on the chair-a grand departure indeed.

Kudos Conscious Media Forum! Keep it up!

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