I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s

Thapa’s ploy to stretch his tenure in government

Kathmandu: The King remains undeterred. His Prime Minister hints that he wouldn’t resign come what may.

Both instead hint that the country might go to the polls.

The agitating political parties are left with no option other than to watch Prime Minister Thapa’s conspiratorial ploys aimed at lingering his tenure in government.

The Maoists have stepped up their violent activities and so have done the State security machinery resulting in the killings of many Nepalese whether they belonged to the RNA or for that matter the insurgency.

Nepali academia and the international bodies based in Kathmandu are watching how slowly but very steadily that Nepal is approaching the abyss.

Are we close to being declared a "failed State"? is the general question now being asked by the intelligentsia and the laymen.

Deteriorating law and order situation and the panic that has been generated by the two-way battle, sliding economy and bad politics does indicate that we are close to be told a failed state soon.

On the contrary, the nation’s Prime Minister and his cabinet members are giving an impression that should the political parties cooperate the establishment, parliamentary elections could be held.

Political parties wish to reject the government’s claim out rightly.

"With no sign of Maoists coming to the talks, the government’s claim to go in for election is simply a ploy to lengthen the tenure of the government", said a Congressite from the Koirala camp.

Similarly, a source close to Deuba-Congress says that the Prime Minister is pretending that the security situation has improved which is totally false. "It has rather worsened than what was during the Prime Ministership of Sher Bahadur Deuba.

The President of the Deuba Congress, Sher Bahadur Deuba, the other day told a newspaper that given the spate of violence, talking of having elections in the near future is simply a futile exercise and nothing more than that.

The fact is that security situation in the country is so bad that the government will have to think twice prior to the announcement of the elections.

"Unless the State army comes to the rescue of the voters and the candidates fighting election, elections can’t take place", says a source close to the RPP whose party is in power at the moment.

However, the constitutional monarch too appears determined to allow Thapa to continue till the elections. But how the elections will take place in the given circumstance neither the King nor his Prime Minister reveals.

Thapa-Koirala nexus puzzles UML

Kathmandu: Girija Prasad Koirala, the president of the congress party, is a changed personality now.

Many believe that Koirala is thinking on how to strike a clandestine political deal with the incumbent Prime Minister, Surya Bahadur Thapa that benefits his political organization.

Observers claim that Koirala was forced to acquire this new stance when he calculated that Thapa will neither resign from the current post nor he will allow the ongoing agitation waged by five parliamentary parties to succeed.

Koirala’s close aides maintain that Koirala must have come to his senses when he listened to Thapa’s revelation that he might think of declaring the dates for the elections.

The NC president gets so many messages from Thapa’s intent in declaring the elections.

Firstly, Thapa’s hint at the possibility of the country going to the polls does amply indicate that the former will not resign from the current post come what may. This means that Thapa will continue as the nation’s prime minister until the elections. Secondly, sending signals of the election, Thapa apparently hints the political parties waging a sort of movement against the establishment and the King as well that they abandon the movement and join the government which will later take care of the elections or else they will be forced to embrace the polls amidst the current turmoil.

Koirala understands better that declaration of the elections at this juncture would mean to face the Maoists in the constituencies which his candidates will avoid to confront for obvious reasons. Koirala also understands that Thapa’s threat of throwing the country to the polls is aimed at bending the mainstream political parties to come to his terms.

In the meanwhile, a sizeable chunk of the congress party presumably suggested Koirala to mend his political differences with the incumbent Prime Minister which is why president Koirala agreed to invite Prime Minister Thapa and his cabinet colleagues to the Tea-Party.

The congress high command that was all determined not to invite the "political untouchables" at its tea-party did invite the Prime Minister and his ministers.

A clever Surya Bahadur Thapa not only attended the tea-party organized by Koirala but also succeeded in creating a rift in between the two mainstream political parties: the congress and the UML.

The UML not only boycotted Koirala’s tea party claiming that the congress by inviting the Prime minister has broken its promise made earlier with the rest of the four agitating parties but also began expressing doubts over congress’ changed stance vis-à-vis the Thapa government.

The rift is there now which is for all to see.

Madhav Nepal is on record to have said recently that he has failed to understand the recent political overtures of the congress under Girija Prasad Koirala.

This expression in itself is a reflection of the fact that the congress and the UML now differ on how to view the Thapa establishment.

Albeit, the congress outwardly has been trying to convince the UML not to take Thapa’s presence at the tea-party seriously for it was an occasion where even declared enemies could be invited. The congress claims that the party was a sort of social gathering. However, NC ideologue, Narhari Acharya begs to differ with the previous comments and prefers to call the tea-party as a political gathering.

Mr. Acharya opines that prime minister Thapa should not have been invited.

Thus, what could be fairly said is that Thapa’s presence at the party has done its job. His conspiratorial brain has once again worked. But question is being asked on what political terms and conditions Koirala took such a bold political initiative?

The UML has become alert. The lay men wish to watch the ninth phase of the movement in the light of the emerging Thapa-Koirala nexus that is yet to take a concrete shape.

Tuladhar’s brilliant proposition

Kathmandu: Politics continues to be stagnant with no signs of improvement in the near future.

Analysts say that neither the government nor the leaders of the Maoists insurgency appear to be in a mood to resume talks.

The deadlock continues.

Efforts aimed at resuming the talks in between the government and the insurgents in order to restore normalcy appear remote.

" I have not yet been approached by the government. The whereabouts of the Maoists is also unknown to me. The representatives of both the warring rivals have so far not contacted me nor have I tries in that regard after the abrupt failure of the last round of talks", so said Shailendra Kumar Upadhyaya who acted as a facilitator in the last round of talks held in between the government and the Maoists.

However, Upadhyaya expressed his concern over the killings on both the sides after the abrupt failure of the talks.

Analysts maintain that the figures declared by the government or even by the Maoists could go up.

Whosoever is being killed in the ongoing battle between the Maoists and the government, is a Nepali first, added Mr. Upadhyaya.

Mr. Upadhyaya made these observations Monday evening at a German Embassy reception.

However, another peace-talks facilitator, Mr. Padma Ratna Tuladhar has recently come up with a brilliant idea.

According to Mr. Tuladhar, the government clearly wishes the Maoists to lay down their arms after first few rounds of talks. The Maoists reject this proposition.

In effect, theirs having arms with them has allowed the insurgents to talk with the government with the "position of strength" and hence apparently wish to extract greater political concessions from the old regime.

The situation is that the Maoists will not abandon the arms. The government will keep on suspecting the intents of the Maoists even after few rounds of talks with them fearing a possibility of attack on the security forces. The intent of the Maoists could not be that but then the government is thinking that way.

Tuladhar has one suitable formulae to overcome this unique situation. He says that the Maoists could be influenced to lay down their arms to a third country mediator.

However, how the Maoists will react to Mr. Tuladhar’s proposal is not clear. But his opinions can’t be dismissed either.

Analysts say that first priority should be for the resumption of the talks. If the talks begin then the question of laying down of the arms will emerge.

It will be premature to predict at this stage that the insurgents would agree to Tuladhar’s formulae unless they are assured that they will be allowed greater concessions close to what they have demanding.

It is altogether a different matter as to how the low-rank Maoists cadres will react to Tuladhar’s proposition even if their high command leaders accept Tuladhar’s idea.

Madhav Nepal is lone crusader

Kathmandu: The leader of the UML, Shri Madhav Kumar Nepal is a lone crusader now.

His friends belonging to the political mainstream housed together confronting the "unconstitutional government" of Thapa have seemingly left him in the cold.

Some appear to leave him soon in the crusade against the King and his government currently being led by Surya Bahadur Thapa.

The meager and namesake communist parties plus the Congress got a political jerk the day the UML paraphernalia preferred not to join the movement a week prior to the King’s return from his London trip. The UML’s absence on that very particular day at the demonstrations caused panic among the rest of the parties who concluded that the UML could betray the very spirit of the movement if the party were assured of huge political gains. The congress under Girija reacted very sharply on the UML’s mysterious absence.

Later the UML clarified that it was some sort of technical error. However, the error was an artificial one, opine men in the congress.

Once again Madhav Nepal is forced to gulp the bitter pill provided to him by Shri Girija Prasad Koirala, the socalled Commander of the ongoing movement.

The decision of Congress president Koirala to invite the incumbent prime minister Thapa at his tea-party reception and the latter’s presence at the said party must have come as a bolt from the blue to the communist leader.

Shri Nepal maintains that the congress has committed Himalayan blunder by inviting the head of a government which the five agitating parties had collectively dubbed as "unconstitutional" and hence were untouchables, politically and socially both.

"The congress has broken its promise by inviting the prime minister at its party", is what Madhav Nepal commented recently immediately after the conclusion of the congress sponsored tea-reception.

This sudden development in the congress camp which incidentally commands the movement, if it were any, is sufficient to send spine chilling waves in the minds of the communist leaders more specially to its leader—Madhav Nepal.

Madhav Nepal has reasons now to distrust the congress’ fresh political overtures. He knows that the congress is playing foul with him and the ongoing movement but is compelled to honor the congress for fear of being left in the corner, politically speaking.

That the communist leader is annoyed with the congress gets reflected from his expressions wherein he says that he believes that there must have been two set of schools in the congress, the one that favors the continuation of the movement and the one that wishes to join the Thapa cabinet.

The jerks are yet to come for Mr. Nepal.

The one Himalayan jerk he received recently came from his own party. The firebrand UML leader Bam Dev Gautam, once Mr. Nepal’s declared arch rival, buldozed his own party’s decision and accepted TIKA from King Gyanendra this Dashain festival. The party felt very bad but Mr. Gautan provided his own interpretations. The party has so far done nothing against Bam Dev’s hob-nobbing with the King.

Much ahead of this jerk, Madhav Nepal’s present rival, Shri K.P.Woli, questioned the very relevancy and the timing of the movement being waged against the Thapa regime and the King.

All put together, what could now be fairly concluded is that if things remain as it is, Madhav Nepal too would have to devise some other mechanisms to stay in center-stage of Nepali politics or else he would be more or less like a lone crusader. The leader, in so many ways than one, has enemies around him, both within and without.

Enemy from within is more dangerous, it is widely believed.

This finally means that Madhav Nepal will have to work hard to keep his own house in order.

Ms. Thapa to receive Ashoka award

Kathmandu: Ms. Lily Thapa, a social worker of international standing is being awarded the "Ashoka Award" early next year.

Ms. Thapa is currently engaged in the upliftment of widows in Nepal.

According to Ms. Thapa, she has been invited to receive the award in Bombay next January 2004.

The award is presented to those who work for bringing about a change in the society. The Ashoka institution is based in Washington D.C and the personality who initiated this award is, according to Ms. Thapa, Bill Drayton, an American national.

Mr. Drayton constituted this award inspired by Emperor Ashoka who, as the history goes, changed his life-style after the battle of Kalinga.

Mr. Dan is new Israel Ambassador

Kathmandu: Mr. Dan Ben-Elizer has been appointed as Israel’s Ambassador to the court of Nepal, said Nepal’s foreign ministry sources on Monday.

Mr. Dan is replacing his predecessor, Mr. Abraham Nir, who upon completion of his Nepal tenure was assigned Ambassadorial post in Vietnam.

Ambassador designate Mr. Dan is shortly arriving Kathmandu to take up his new assignment. Mr. Dan is a career diplomat, the source adds.

France to celebrate Sixth Intl. Solidarity week

Throughout France, the sixth International Solidarity Week will take place from 12 to 23 November 2003. This decentralized national operation, held simultaneously in Paris and the provinces, is structured around more than 1300 events, more than 150 of which are financed by the organizers to the tune of 200 to 1,000 Euros per project. Exhibitions, debates and festivals will punctuate this week of citizen action.

International Solidarity Week is conceived as an exchange of initiatives. The aim is to increase citizens’ awareness of common concerns through encounters with people engaged in solidarity schemes so that they can share their experiences.

Among the new forms of support to Third World Peoples, several are particularly favored: joint saving schemes which meet the expectations of those investors wishing to take ethical criteria into account when making their investments; fair trade, which helps provide a decent income to producers in Third World Countries and protect their social rights; and youth schemes, which allow the younger generation to get involved in international solidarity projects.

Lastly, it is worth noting that this event is not confined to France – events will be taking place simultaneously in Benin, Mali and Morocco. It is also part of the European education for World Citizenship Week, organized for the same period by the Council of Europe.

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