I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Thapa kills two birds with one stone

Kathmandu: King Gyanendra remains determined not to yield to the five parties’ demands. At least this is what could be concluded from his silence on the country’s ever deteriorating political and security situation.

His Loyal Prime Minister is sending signals to the agitating political parties to tighten their belts and prepare their political entities to embrace elections.

The Loyal ministers of Prime Minister Thapa have apparently acquired a posture that is aimed at stretching the tenure of their government in Kathmandu. The King’s silence too contributes to the general feeling that He would wish to "correct" the agitating political parties going the Thapa way.

The political parties are in a fix: should they embrace the elections in this present day hostile situation or allow the country to go the RPP Thapa way.

If they decide to face the elections, they are sure to loose for Thapa’s conspiratorial brain in no way would allow the other political parties to win the elections given the political situation in the country and his being at the helm of affairs of the country. (This could be fairly guessed from the manner Premier Thapa and his ministers are nominating their tested and trusted men in the high offices of the Municipalities and the likes). If they don’t participate in the elections would mean that they have boycotted the elections which Prime Minister Thapa would interpret in a different manner that suits to his political interest. With 4Ms in hand Prime Minister Thapa would do every thing possible to expose the political parties.

However, there is one problem for Thapa as well. If the political parties now in agitation don’t participate in the elections, the results, a strong likelihood remains, might not be recognized by a sizeable chunk of the Nepali population or even the international community would question the accuracy and the fairness of the results announced which definitely would favor the ruling party.

But then yet the leaders of the agitating parties have repeatedly been saying that if the polls are announced they would face it like brave boys.

Equally true is the reality that under the existing conditions elections could not be held. This is a fact both the men in the government and the men in the agitation understand.

Unless the national army comes to the rescue of the government, the elections could not be held. Both the agitating leaders and the leaders seated in Sigh Durbar know this hard reality. But question remains that even if the Army gives a nod to the government to go in on for elections, can the army provide security to the candidates and the voters nationwide? Perhaps not.

Prime Minister Thapa’s arrogance mixed penchant to go in for the elections appears to have been guided by the truth that he appears to have been told by the nation’s army to conduct the polls phase wise which appears to be not that impossible.

Thapa by sending signals of the likelihood of the announcement of the elections wishes to kill several birds with one stone. In doing so he wishes to attract the attention of the political parties towards the elections and been hinting that if you guys were really a true democrat(s), come and participate in the elections. Similarly, he also hints that the moment general elections conclude will automatically bring the derailed constitutional and the democratic processes back to its original track to what the political parties have been demanding since long.

The political parties understand that Thapa has devised such a politically conspiratorial mechanism which neither they can accept nor reject. As democratic parties, they will have to embrace the elections. If they don’t will mean that the political parties do not wish to face the elections but instead prefer to be in power without facing the polls.

Thapa is determined to announce the dates for the elections soon after Bhai-Tika festivals.

Reports have it that the local level elections are scheduled to be held during the month of April to be followed by the parliamentary election in October, around this time next year.

The political parties have quickly to decide on how to respond to Thapa’s fresh political ploys.

Thapa pushing agitating parties’ to walls!

Kathmandu: Prime Minister Thapa means now business. He remains undeterred by the threats to his cabinet posed by the agitating parties. He is now all set to throw the country to the polls.

In doing so he wishes to hint the international community that he is willing to go by the demands of the political parties in order to bring back the constitutional and the democratic processes to its original track which got deviated on October 4, last year. This is a clear message to the political parties to cooperate his government which is preparing for the Announcement of the general elections and exhibit their respect and honor for democratic process or else face the music.

Prime Minister Thapa also hinted the other day that holding of the elections could be the one and the only solution to the demands that the political parties have been making through their almost six months long agitation.

"The political parties have become irresponsible towards the country and its people", said an angry Thapa Monday in Birganj. This statement clearly explains Thapa’s mood is now to denounce the present mood acquired by the agitating parties towards the State and its people which concurrently means that it has become enough and enough is enough and thus he would not tolerate their irresponsible remarks any more.

By the way his rather tough statement does imply that Thapa has summarily failed in seducing the Koirala camp in its favor. Koirala’s fresh utterances of not joining the Thapa government must have annoyed Thapa and hence the rough and tough statement against the political parties, more specially against the congress from whom he had expected tangible support at time of his crisis.

That Thapa is really angry from the stance acquired by the agitating political parties comes to the fore when he expresses his outbursts in this manner: " The agitation parties don’t wish to face the polls but would wish very much to be in power without going to the polls".

The message is that the parties have indicated Thapa that they will apparently not be able to face the polls but then yet would wish to share power if Thapa pleasingly resigned from his current post.

The parties are hoping against hope for Thapa and his resignation never go together, it is widely believed in the country.

In saying so, Thapa also wishes to expose the leaders of the agitating parties that they have grouped themselves in a house that is at the moment in agitation solely to bounce back to power and that their agitating is not aimed at relieving the country and its people from the ailments in which the country is gripped in since several years.

But then yet, Prime Minister Thapa appeals for support from the agitating parties for his regime which he understands that he will not succeed at least in the near future. This is yet another conspiracy. Pushing his appeal for support, prime minister Thapa wishes to hint that he is a "liberal" politician and will remain so ad infinitum. However, those who know Thapa better say that Thapa’s brain thinks nothing more than conspiracy round the clock.

How his conspiratorial brain will weaken the ongoing agitation of the five parties and how he will conduct the elections will have to be watched.

Nevertheless, what is for sure is that he will not resign come what may. What is also certain is that he would now wish to steal some of the leaders from the mainstream political parties to give his government a different shape. What also could not be ruled out is that Prime Minister Thapa in order to stretch his tenure in government amidst all the existing odds would not spare his efforts to convince the King for the early announcement of the polls which is tentatively scheduled for April and October next year.

Thapa hopes that announcement of the polls will have a positive impact on the agitating parties and that they would instead of teasing his regime will gear up their political activities towards the polls.

However, it remains to be seen on how the agitating parties take the announcement of the polls. Their acceptance or boycott of the announced polls will determines the future shape of the country’s politics.

No light seems to be at the end of tunnel

Kathmandu: With the stepping up of the violence by the insurgents of late, the government under Prime Minister Thapa appears too determined to take up the Maoists challenge.

Is Thapa planning a tit-for-tat? Perhaps yes if one were to analyze his fresh utterances being made against the Maoists insurgency.

With no sign of mushrooming Human Rights Organizations and self-proclaimed Civil Society groups initiating clandestinely even "connections" with either the government or the Maoists in the post Dashain days in order to bring the warring rivals to the negotiating table, what appears to be sure is that the two-way fight battle between the Old-regime and the New regime will continue for long leaving scores or precious lives sacrificed for a cause no body knows.

That the government is all set to take up the Maoists violence with firm hands becomes more than clear from the fresh expressions of the nation’s Prime Minister when he says that the Maoists were not only a "terrorists" but were also " anti-nationals".

This perhaps explains the mood of the prime minister on how to deal with the Maoists ever increasing violence in the days ahead. However, to what extent he would be able to arrest the threats of the Maoists remains yet to be watched.

The ground reality, however, is that the Maoists too have only recently hinted that they would fight the battle to the finish which means that the insurgency is fully determined to do what ever they can in order to weaken the Old regime politically, socially and security wise as well. That they were on their fierce move gets reflected from the manner they have been inflicting colossal damages on the civilians, state security personnel and the nation’s basic development infrastructures.

The days ahead are indeed dangerous.

Let’s analyse as to what makes the Prime Minister so sure that he would time permitting crush the Maoists insurgency?

Certainly two factors come to the fore for Thapa’s possible confidence. The first being that he has been explicitly been assured by the military high command that they could time permitting contain the threats of the Maoists growing violence. This is one factor which could have added to the confidence of the prime minister. Incidentally, the military sources too have been ventilating that they were competent enough to deal with the Maoists violence effectively. This is not all, the military men also been telling that their prowess has in the recent days increased and hence the heavy casualties on the other side. If this is so then the military is all determined to face the battle on their own come what may.

Secondly, Prime Minister Thapa’s confidence could have been the result of the possible fresh assurances that he might have received in the recent days from powerful countries that they they were behind him. Could be that the United States, the United Kingdom and others from the developed West have assured the Old regime that they would go to any length in order to curb the threat of the Maoists.

All said and done, a very startling revelation has come out that could surprise many a brains in the country.

If one were to believe to what Jan Manch, a vernacular weekly dated October 19 has dared to print in its latest issue then what comes to the fore is that the Maoists camp is also not bereft of differing camps from within.

The said weekly citing top level intelligence sources has said that at the moment the Maoists camp is having four distinct differing poles. The weekly goes on to reveal that there existed four different lobbies in the camp that represent India, China, Russian Federation and nationalists.

According to the weekly, Comrade Nand Kishore Pun represented the Chinese lobby; Prachanda, Dr. Bhattarai and Matrika Yadav represent Indian lobby; the Russian lobby is similarly represented by Ram Bahadur Thapa-Badal and the lobby of the supposed nationalists is being taken care by Sonam Lama and Mohan Baidya.

British envoy clarifies his country’s standpoints

Kathmandu: British Ambassador to the Nepali Court, Keith Bloomfield has made it clear that the Appeal Judges at the Royal Courts of Justice in London have ruled out that the current Ministry of Defence policies on Gurkha pensions, pay and Married Accompanied Service provisions were "lawful" under the Human Rights Act.

Mr. Bloomfield also has said that the ruling made by Justice Sullivan clearly opines that "there were no grounds for claims of discrimination in regards to pay, that pensions were both generous and appropriate but that Married Accompanied Service should be reviewed.

The judgement, according to the British diplomat, have specifically endorsed those policies which sought to protect and preserve the Nepalese identity of the Gorkha soldiers during their servive.

"Implicit in these policies is the requirement for Gorkhas to serve as Nepali citizens and to be discharged in Nepal on retirement", added the Ambassador.

He made these clarifications last week at a press conference held in Kathmandu.

" We are delighted with the outcome which vindicates our belief that Gorkha soldiers get an excellent deal which is both generous and fair", continued the British envoy.

According to him, the fresh ruling of the British Court now provided them with a contemporary legal basis on which the Britain-Nepal military relationship can continue to flourish.

Koirala renews his outbursts against the monarch

Kathmandu: King’s silence is visibly killing the agitating political parties. Neither the political parties can press the King for a collective audience nor they can now afford to maintain the tempo of their agitation for long for fear of being criticised by their own cadres.

Cadres engaged in the agitation have reasons to become restive. They apparently now conclude that their leaders have so far failed to bring a momentum against the King and hence to expect that the King would yield to their leaders’ demands would simply be a fool-hardy job.

The leaders understand their cadres psyche but remain helpless and were not in a position to put tangible pressure on the King to force him to yield to their demands. The fact is that now it is not the King but the King’s Prime Minister who is answering to their calls and that too with strong rebuttals.

Frustrated by the political events happening in the nation, UML leader, we are told, has gone for a pilgrimage. His foreign country "meaningful" trip comes close on the heels of Ram Chandra Poudel’s freshly concluded Delhi trip.

To recall, Mr. Poudel upon his return from New Delhi made it clear in no uncertain terms that Madhav Nepal no more remained a "consensus" candidate for the post of the prime minister which expectedly must have jolted Mr. Nepal from within.

However, what prompted Mr. Poudel to announce immediately after his trip to India that Mr. Nepal was not a consensus candidate is yet unknown. However, sources in Kathmandu indicate that Mr. Poudel during his Delhi sojourn must have met some influential leaders there whom he could have convinced that elevating the ranks of a communist leader of the sort of Mr. Nepal might not be in the overall interest of India.

Practically disturbed by Mr. Poudel’s utterances, Mr. Nepal too apparently decided to neutralise Mr. Poudel’s not so tasty expressions.

Be that as it may, things as it stand today lead us all, including Madhav Nepal and Koirala, to conclude that for the time being the country would be ruled by Prime Minister Thapa , and hence the rush to Delhi.

Back home President Koirala too has concluded that his decision to bring down the tempo of the five party agitation to a low-key mode at the influence of certain foreign envoys was a Himalayan blunder.

In effect, the envoys of the US had assured Koirala, the UK and India that should the parties toned down their movement, they would convince the King to patch-up their political differences. However, Koirala’s patience too had its elastic limit. Neither the King yielded nor the envoys could bring the agitating political parties and the King together. The stalemate thus continues.

The envoys too have their limitations. They can convince both the parties but can’t press them to patch-up their political differences which have definitely increased in the recent days. And the fresh announcement by Koirala that the King by not complying to their demands have exposed himself in the eyes of the international community.

‘Monsieur franc fort’ is new ECB President

Kathmandu: Jean-Claude Trichet is to be the new president of the European Central Bank.

On November 1st. the Frenchman Jean-Claude Trichet, 60, is to succeed Wim Duisenberg, 68, from the Netherlands, as president of the European Central Bank, ECB, reports German Magazine Deutschland in its October/November issue.

It had already been unofficially agreed that Trichet would be Duisenberg’s successor when the latter was appointed as the first ECB President in 1998.

Up to now, however, this switch has been blocked by the allegation that Trichet was implicated in the accounting scandal at the French central bank Credit Lyonnais.

The French central bank President was acquitted of this charge in June this year.

The EU’s heads of State and Government intend to announce the official appointment of Trichet at their next Summit meeting this October.

Germany and France have already signaled their support in favor of Trichet.

Trichet is regarded as a highly qualified economist and experienced monetary politician and enjoys a high reputation in the international circles.

He is a career civil servant, graduated from the French elite university, ENA, and joined President Giscard d’Estaing’s advisory staff in 1978.

He has been at the helm of the French since 1993, where he has gained a reputation as "Monsieur franc fort".

He is credited with having stabilised the French currency and cut the inflation rate and has untiringly promoted the Euro.

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