I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Rumors still influence media

Kathmandu: Surprisingly rumor politics gets space despite the abundance of the media in a democracy that is a decade over old. Nepal’s traditional, conspiratorial politics came to play last week when a tabloid chose to publish a calculated plant suggesting UML’s Madhav Nepal as Prime Minister in an imminent change hastened by a supposedly early return of the King to Kathmandu. The King returns home as scheduled today thereby verifying that the news report was misinformation. However, subsequent reportage in even major dailies based on the published rumors more than adequately revealed that a calculated campaign is on to suggest that firstly, Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa’s cabinet is on the way out and secondly the agitating parties are on the way to victory by obliging the King to accommodate their demands appointing Madhav Nepal as Nepal’s next Prime Minister.

While the concurrence is Thapa has long outlived his utility, there is no change in standpoints of the agitating parties that can back the rumors of accommodation. Although, significantly enough, the UML was mysteriously absent in one day’s agitation later accounted to a misunderstanding, the purpose and content of the reports have a clear mission in hindsight.

Firstly, the agitation has been hindered by poor participation. Secondly, the Maoists threat of violence in Kathmandu could have contributed to this hindrance. Thirdly, the government’s administrative measures have had to be coped with. Rumors of an impending favorable change allows party leadership to quell cadre inhibitions and even to encourage continued participation in the ongoing programs. To boot, it can help continue the agitation if the rumors don’t materialize as facts by a new position saying that the Palace had once more betrayed commitments.

This desperation on the part of the agitating parties make clear that something is amidst in their program of action, namely, credibility. The agitation has turned to one courting arrests. That the agitation is designed to impress cadre support is clear. But that it should show nakedly bank on rumors to change its standpoints hints at inbuilt weaknesses that may have to force revisions of calculated strength thereby a change in the nature of the agitation itself.

One thing is clear. The rumors anticipate change. And change for the better is overly due.

Dr. Bhattarai says the 1990 constitution is already a dead horse; not to settle for less than constituent assembly

Kathmandu: Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai, one of the ideologue of the Maoist insurgency said that the new regime unfortunately preferred to accommodate our revolutionary demands of the formation of completely a new regime by effecting certain cosmetic changes in the existing constitution and with a change in the existing government which to even a lay men would appear two diametrically opposed thinking and hence a meeting between the two extremes was impossible.

“This led to the failure of the talks this round,” said Bhattarai.

But then, adds Dr. Bhattarai, to mislead the urban and the rural elite, the government of the day is propagating that the two political agenda that came from two different quarters were almost identical and that there still remained possibilities to sort out the differences and to reach at some substantial agreements after a few round of talks in between the two.

“Such false propagation has got to be exposed”, continues Dr. Bhattarai.

Dr. Bhattarai’s presumption is that today’s general consensus (including majority of the population, the parliamentary and non-parliamentary parties) is that for the institutionalization of a sort of democratic system in the country, two forces, the monarchy and the Military, were the real enemies and that unless their “future” is finally ascertained by the people, the possibility of the strengthening of the old sort of democratic system too appeared remote.

According to Dr. Bhattarai, it is only the election to the constituent assembly that could settle the problems and the issues of the monarchy and that of the Nepal’s traditional army and realizing this need, adds Bhattarai, that the insurgency has decided to push its agenda for the constituent assembly.

The Maoist camp also ridicules the government agenda which maintains that the existence of the monarchy in the country is a must. Dr. Bhattarai is also surprised to see the total absence of the talk of the army in the government-sponsored agenda.

If for the old regime the monarchy and the army were a must then for us the empowerment of the people with full and inviolable sovereign rights is a must.

He however opines that a mere reforms of the 1990 constitution can’t in any way decide neither the fate of the King nor that of the army. “The existing constitution which is as good as a corpse after the October 4 move of the King and hence to expect that effecting certain changes in it would do good for the country was simply a wrong view”, continues Dr. Bhattarai.

Dr. Bhattarai also explains that the role of the King too appeared reluctant in giving a proper shape to the proceedings of the talks as he, read the King, moved to London on the pretext of health-check up when the talks had entered into a crucial phase wherein his presence was warranted. The King, instead of meeting the leaders of the insurgency, preferred to send his emissaries who were as good as nothing.

Talking on the role of the parliamentary parties on the talks, Dr. Bhattarai says that they albeit supported the happening of the talks but failed to push the talks to attain positive results. “The failure of the parliamentary parties for their support to the Maoists agenda for a constituent assembly in effect emboldened the other camp”, said Bhattarai adding that had there been support from the parliamentary parties on the issue of the constituent assembly would have meant a very strong pressure on the King.

The Maoist ideologue is not happy with the United States. According to Dr. Bhattarai, the US desire continues to strengthen the hands of the King and the army in Nepal in order to serve its own strategic interests. He however, doesn’t mention as to which strategic interests the US has in Nepal?

According to Bhattarai, the US Ambassador exceeded his diplomatic limits when he appealed all to corner the Maoists.

All put together, what comes to the fore is that the Maoists are not happy with the King, the Army, the US and some other international forces which apparently abort the talks in one pretext or the other.

Dr. Bhattarai predicts that the King might now wage a sort of battle against the insurgency at the instigation of international forces and the parliamentary parties will come to his support.

“Whosoever comes to power will possess the character of a fascist sort of government”, presumes Dr. Bhattarai.

It is immaterial whether the Prime Minister is Sher Bahadur or Madhav Nepal, whosoever is that would not be that much different than Lokendra and Surya Bahadur, concludes Dr. Bhattarai.

Telegraph adds: With two diametrically opposed agenda in front, it appears remote if not impossible that the two warring rivals would soon come to table. Notably, Dr. Bhattarai has once again reiterated that his party has not at all abandoned the demand for a republican Nepal. He however, maintains that for the time being his party would wish to content with the highest form of democratic exercise and that being the election to the constituent assembly. If for the old regime, the monarch were two most wanted institutions, for the Maoists, the two appear more than number enemies. With this revelation of Dr. Bhattarai, it would be safe to conclude that the violence that has come into vogue from both the camps will continue for some time more unless some miracle bring them once again to the negotiating table.

Similarly, if for the old regime, its relations with the international donors and more specially the developed West were necessary, then for the Maoists these forces appear to have been working against their interests and hence they possess some sort of hatred against the countries who champion democracy here and there.

And by the same token, if for Nepal the countries mentioned above were needed to contain the threats of violence, more so the one perpetrated by the Maoists, then the same countries were number enemies in the eyes of the rebels as those countries have already joined hands with this country to contain any sort of threat of terrorism either by the Maoists or the violence created by some other methods by some other forces.

If for the Maoists the election to the constituent assembly could be one point for starting the dialogue again, then the agenda of the said assembly appears to have occupied lesser priority in the agenda of the old regime and the parliamentary parties now in agitation.

All put together, there appear little ground which could bring the rebels back to the table, at least for some time now. However, much will also depend on whether some emissary of the Maoists met the King in London or not? If yes then what transpired in between the two? Whether the King convinced the emissary of the rebels that he was ready to talk on their agenda or the rebel representative told the King that since he could not decide on his own and that he too had to convince his comrades and thus it would be advisable that the King met with his leaders upon return to Kathmandu.

To recall, the Maoists have time and again reiterated that they wish to see the King in person.

Nevertheless, it is yet to be ascertained as to whether the news that some one called Kiran from the insurgents’ camp supposedly went to London to meet the King is true or not.

If it is true then what could be surely said is that the talks will resume. If not then the rest is predictable.

Madhav, Koirala and Deuba in the race
Congress suspects UML moves: What makes Koirala to change his heart suddenly!

Kathmandu: NC president Koirala, analysts say, has lost his targeted path. Others say Koirala is still kicking and alive.

Some academics wish to call Koirala a personality who blows more hot than cold. Yet another section of the intellectuals opine that Koirala is a political personality who has done more harm than good to the democratic system in the country. And many more comments about the septuagenarian who has vowed that he would renounce politics if the King yielded to his demands.

However, for analysts in this paper, Koirala is a political creature who can go to any extent if his views were accepted by others, whether it be the King or the leaders of other parliamentary parties.

Koirala was the one who blew hot against the monarch from the very beginning, to recall. It is Koirala now who appears to have acquired little bit of mild posture on the King and has directed his “obedient boys” to refrain from inciting violence at time of the routine agitation. He commanded his boys that Wednesdays agitation will have to be packed up much ahead of the King’s landing in Kathmandu’s airport.

Here lies the significance of his instructions.

But why Koirala is a changed political personality now?

Analysts wish to forward these comments for the abrupt change seen in Koirala’s change of heart vis-à-vis the Nepali monarchy.

Firstly, rumors have it that King Gyanendra’s confidante, Mr. Prabhakar S. Rana met with Koirala and whispered that the King was all prepared to sit for a talks with him provided the agitation were scrapped altogether.

An all beaming Koirala jumped with joy hopefully and assured the King’s special envoy that the agitation will continue as scheduled but then the sharpness of the agitation will henceforth cease to exist and that even if the agitation continued it would in no way affect the King.

Believing hundred percent on the words of the King’s emissary, Koirala definitely toned down his rhetoric against the King and one fine morning he told his colleagues that some sort of “positive hints” have come to him. Since then the congress participation in the routine agitation has remained some what half-hearted.

Informed sources say that the rumor that the King advised his long time private friend to mediate in between him and Koirala is far from truth,

Rumors had it that the King sent words to Koiurala that if he could adjust his role with personality like Thapa who created trouble for the present King during the Panchayat days, then it would not be that uneasy to work together with Koirala.

All gossip, say high placed sources.

Though the authenticity of such wild rumors can never be established but then, as the luck would have it, Koirala appears to be happy as if he has been told by the King to have patience. Now the question is that how come a political leader of the sort of Koirala’s stature could divulge that he had received positive signals from the King  unless he received it? Why should he tell a lie to the general public more so to his own frustrated cadres?

The manner and the style with which Koirala has deliberately toned down the tempo of the routine agitation does hint that if not Mr. Rana but then from certain other quarters (could be envoys from foreign countries) he has captured some signals which he wishes to term positive signals.

The same story applies to the UML as well.

Upon listening to King’s positive signals, the leader of the UML, Mr. Madhav Nepal, became so excited that he even boycotted the agitation of last Saturday. This he apparently did so hopefully not to annoy the King. In doing so Mr. Nepal appears to have sent signals to the King that should he be honored by the King, he would abruptly delink his association with the congress.

The congress president Koirala got a mild jolt when he was told that the UML did not support the Saturday agitation.

Later the UML devised a face saving mechanism and informed that the UML’s non-participation on that day was not intentional but was a sort of “misunderstanding” only.

It is interesting to note that both the congress and the UML appear to have been advised to calm down. Both have been told that some thing very concrete will emerge immediately after the King’s return. Both the leaders are happy thinking that their days have approached to enter Singh Durbar.

However, there is one technical difficulty. Can the country have two prime ministers at a time?

Certainly not. If not then why Koirala and Madhav Nepal both are jumping with joy?

The million dollar question: Has the King sent any positive signals to Koirala and Mr. Nepal separately while being in London? If yes then should we expect a positive change to the current turmoil?

Since Koirala will not ride the power horse, should it mean that the next chief of the executive is Mr. Nepal? If yes then will Mr. Nepal prefer to get appointed himself as the nation’s prime minister under the (in)famous article 127? What if Koirala presents himself yet again as potential candidate for the Premier’s post? By way of reference, what if Deuba too claims the same post?

Does this all mean that the routine agitation has nothing to do with what the agitators call, regression? Is it that if the PM post is allowed they would never pronounce the word regression? What if all the contenders for the PM post are not satisfied? Logic backed by the constitution is that the King at one time can satisfy the ego of any one among the crowd of many. Will the one left in the freezing cold will allow his rival to continue easily?

Questions galore indeed.

It’s now the King’s turn to act

Kathmandu: The King has to act and that too very fast.

The nation can’t remain at the mercy of the Almighty for long. The King must use his good offices soon in order to accommodate the demands of the parliamentary parties now in agitation in order to arrest the constitutional dilemma that is apparently going on since his last October 4 moves.

The King must act fast if he wishes to continue as a benevolent monarch having belief in the democratic system. The King is now left with no other option than to forge a sort of rapport with the agitating parties and with their support he must now find a permanent solution to the seven year old Maoists imbroglio.

With all the respect and honor to the King, our analysts wish to suggest the monarch that the two successive governments formed under his command summarily failed either to restore peace or to even bring the agitating parties to the mainstream politics. However, this should not be construed to mean that the King failed in his endeavor to get the country out of the present mess, but then yet what could be safely said of him is that despite his sincere efforts his men in the establishment neither could win the hearts of the people nor became able to explain the rationale behind the King’s October 4 moves.

The constitutional monarch has to act fast as time is running out. The Maoists, sons of the same soil indeed, must be brought back to the table and assured that they would be provided all the things which they wish save those which were under debate.

Analysts say that the Maoists could not have left the talks for good had they been convinced that the agenda put forth by the establishment at time of the talks could be reformed, changed and even rewritten in order to convince the other camp.

However, the government, according to former Prime Minister Chand, pushed its agenda in haste and thus the negative impact on the continuation of the talks.

“ The operation was successful, but the patient died”, is how Mr. Chand had to comment on the resumption of the talks and the subsequent abrupt failure of the ceasefire even.

Our analysts also wish to suggest the King that what is the harm if he invited some top-hats of the insurgency to the Palace or any where which is convenient to both the sides and listen to their demands and explain at the same time his own reservations.

It is already an established fact that the Thapa government can’t negotiate certain points that directly deal with the monarchy itself. The government neither has the mandate nor ability to talk on such susceptible and sensitive issues.

The Maoists demand elections to the constituent assembly. The government and the parliamentary parties enmasse reject this proposition. Save Deuba’s party which says that if the Maoists abandon violence and surrender the arms, their party could support the idea of a constituent assembly.

Add to this, facilitator Daman Nath Dhungana is in favor of constituent assembly. The rest have so far not spoken their minds. The intellectuals are yet to criss-cross the nitty-gritty of the constituent assembly. The lay men who have not yet been told as to what is a democracy will perhaps take one more decade to understand the most advanced for of democratic system which, according to Dr. Bhattarai, is close to republicanism.

The King has the political leverage. He is close to the parliamentary parties. The government is in place. The intellectuals are ready to offer him the needed advice. The Maoists appear ready to meet him. Add to this the entire international community is behind the country which the King can exploit to the betterment of the nation.

It’s time that the King acts fast. He should use, say analysts, his own channels which hopefully should be in place in order to convince the parliamentary parties of his good intentions for the system now in place and to convince simultaneously the Maoists through the parliamentary parties. The King can seek the assistance of certain countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and even India for so many understandable and obvious reasons. Fortunately these countries have already hinted on that lines. The King, if he so desires, can seek the support of some known neutral countries like Norway, Finland and Denmark as well.

How the King proceeds, opine analysts, should be entirely his discretion. All that the people wish is the restoration of peace. Since the two government’s appointed by the King in the past have miserably failed, it should be the King now to take up the challenge.

US support to fight corruption

Kathmandu: On September 8, the United States Ambassador to Nepal, Shri Michael E. Malinowski and Ministery of Finance Joint Secretary Shri Madhav Prasad Ghimire signed an agreement providing $ 340,000 in assistance to Nepal.

The grant thus provided by the United States $250,000 to help support anti-corruption efforts and promote a spirit of public and community service within Nepal’s National Police and yet another sum of $ 90,000 to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of Nepal’s judiciary by extending its effective reach to remote areas.

These two programs are part of a larger effort by the United States and other donors and friends of Nepal to assist HMG/N to reduce corruption, improve rule-of-law and engender respect for human rights.

Telegraph adds: .The fresh donation from the US on three different heads does speak volumes about the prevalence of a number of ailments in this country. To be more specific, it talks about corruption, on the judiciary and the police force.

Firstly it holds subtly that corruption prevails which it hopes that the money thus donated will bring out charismatic results.  

Hoping against hope indeed.

It, secondly, does also amply hint that the judiciary is not “effective” and has yet to reach to the remote areas which means that justice is being denied in the remote districts by the “inefficient” (implied) Nepali judiciary.

 Thirdly, it also suggests the Nepali police force to go on in the line of public and community services which at the moment it lacked.

However, intellectuals remain skeptical of the fate of the money thus allocated to reduce or curb corruption. The money has gone to the finance ministry which is apparently the Mecca for the corrupts. It is believed that the men involved in “anti-corruption efforts” as envisioned by the donor will themselves gulp the money thus provided by the United States. Hopefully, the men handling the said money will have a very very happy Dashain and Deepawali festivals.

Pakistan FM arriving this week

Kathmandu: The Foreign Minister of Pakistan, Mr. Khurshid M. Kasuri, is visiting Nepal from 12 September, it is learnt from Pakistan embassy sources.

The Pakistan foreign minister will be here to convey the formal invitation from the Prime Minister of Pakistan to Rt. Honorable Surya bahadur Thapa, the Nepalese Prime Minister to attend the 12th SAARC Summit scheduled for early January next year.

The minister will meet a cross section of the Nepalese intelligentsia, academics, commentators and media men, it is also learnt from the embassy sources.

Telegraph adds: King Gyanendra is expected to visit Pakistan soon after the impending festivals, say Shital Nivas sources.

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