I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Where is the compromise?

Kathmandu: As stated in the previous issue, this week proved these rumors floated last week of special signals and messages from the Palace to the agitating five parties proved unverifiable. The UML leadership is unanimous in public statements that they have received no such “message” or “signal”. The congress on the other hand are mum on the matter of the rumor but now claim that their “decisive” agitation was toned down not on the basis of any such signal but due to cognizance of the ground situation dictated by the Maoists.

Analysis of the purpose of the rumors therefore would have to be based on its effects. For one thing, purposely spread rumors of the king relenting to accommodate the agitating parties 18 point demands did help in increasing the numbers of the “count arrest” program which the toned down effect resulted in. the rumors could also help postpone the decisive program for “after Tihar”. The Dashain reprieve for our political parties has thus been secured. Moreover, the period will be used to cultivate the cadre and mass with the promise of imminent change and entry in government of the political parties signifying their victory and the King’s defeat.

While the rumor can be used against the King of not materialized as yet another betrayal on part of the monarchy something remains amidst nevertheless. Which points of the 18 point demands have been accepted by the King or have been dropped by the agitators is not talked of in the rumor. The King moreover, to all practical purposes has not rescinded the constitutionality of his actions under article 127. Neither has the government. Where, then, one might question has a cave-in taken place?

Keeping in mind that the King has from the very outset of his action under article 127 last year, been seeking the participation of the political parties represented in the dissolved parliament and also keeping in mid that it was the political parties that placed coditionalities is and went to the street, it is obvious that it will be the political parties hoping for compromised as the rumors now suggest.

In this background it is possible to see some grain of truth in the party rumors that the Thapa Cabinet is engaged in a process of attempting an all-party government. However, if the parties don’t cave-in on their 18-point demand, this would seem difficult to materialize. This then, gives some credence to rumors that the Thapa government is on its way out.

Pakistan favors China’s inclusion in SAARC; RNAC suggested resuming its flight to Karachi

Kathmandu: The host of the next SAARC Summit, Pakistan, appears not yet sure whether the Summit will take place Islamabad at all on time given the past sad experiences.

Pakistan’s foreign minister Khurshid M. Kasuri, who was on a whirlwind tour to this country hinted that he was simply “hopeful” in this regard.

In saying so the Pak foreign minister amply hinted that his country was prepared to embrace the eventuality at that time, the corollary of which is that Pakistan hopes that the rest of the countries in the SAARC process take note of this fact and remain ever alert and concentrate their efforts in bringing the South Asian movement to its track.

Talking with a select group of Nepali intellectuals including the media, Pakistan foreign minister Mr. Kasuri pleasingly told that if neighboring China exhibited its desire in joining the SAARC process, his country would be the first one to greet China openly and that too unconditionally.

“If China is interested in SAARC, Pakistan is in support. It’s all positive for China provided the country concerned exhibits her interest in the South Asian organization”, said Kasuri.

To recall, there has been a sort of debate in some Capitals of South Asian countries on whether China should be inducted in the SAARC process or not. Intellectuals in Nepal believe that when Pakistan has unconditional support for China’s possible inclusion in the SAARC, it should be India, logically, to brush aside the proposal. However, China, through various seminars held in Nepal or elsewhere has subtly hinted that she could think on that line if proposals came to her. However, the Charter of the SAARC required unanimous assent of the members on such matters.

Interacting with the Nepali academia, minister Kasuri opined “success of the SAARC movement were key to stability in the entire South Asian region”. He also admitted that lack of internal stability in the countries of the region is what has made all the countries to lag behind compared to other countries housed in other regional groups.

On the bilateral front, the Pakistan foreign minister made it clear that his meetings with the nation’s Prime Minister and the monarch remained, in his own words, “useful and constructive”. He, however, remained tight-lipped and preferred not to disclose on what he meant by the terms “ useful and constructive”.

Analysts opine that Pakistan this time appears to have convinced Nepal that she was ready to cooperate this country going extra-miles should the recipient country approached Pakistan.

This gets reflected from minister Kasuri’s expression wherein he frankly admits that his country was “committed for the preservation of security and territorial integrity of Nepal.

Should this mean that Pakistan would come to the rescue of Nepal if some countries violated the international norms and interfered into the internal affairs of this country thereby posing a threat to its security?

On a friendly note, the Pakistan minister also hinted that his country would continue supporting Nepali armed forces by providing training to the army personnel as she had been doing the same in the past.

Intervening for a while during the interaction, the incumbent Pakistan Ambassador Zameer Akram opined that Nepal’s flag carrier for the time being could land at Karachi airport en route to Dubai.

“We are ready to provide landing facilities to RNAC in Karachi airport, if it wishes so, on its way to Dubai”, said Ambassador Akram. He, however, added that navigational experts from Pakistan and China were on the move to explore the possibility of the resumption of the PIA flights to Kathmandu via the Tibetan plateau.

All put together, what comes to the fore is that Pakistan wishes to expand her ties with Nepal on all possible sectors. Analysts predict that a few bilateral agreements might be signed at time when King Gyanendra visits Pakistan immediately after the conclusion of the festivals.

US suggests Nepal’s political parties to put aside differences; take up positive role

Kathmandu: The United States of America has once again urged all the major political parties in the country to take up a positive stance that goes in favor of the country which ultimately paves a way for the end of violence.

The Ambassador of the United States, Michael Malinowski, made this fervent appeal to the Nepali people, its leaders and the civil society members the other day when he was addressing a gathering of the Nepalese organized by the Foundation of Nepalese in America, Nepal chapter.

“We continue to encourage the legitimate political parties to put aside their differences and take up a positive, active role in promoting sincere discussions designed to lead to an end to violence that threatens not only the people of Nepal as individuals but undermines the ability of Nepal to take its rightful place among the democratic and prosperous nations of the world”, is what Ambassador Malinowski said.

Analyzing the Ambassador’s comment made just above, what comes to the fore is that the United States wishes that the political parties shun their political differences (with the King perhaps!) and engage themselves in a positive manner that ensures an end to violence and also that guarantees Nepal’s prestige as a democratic nation in the comity of the nations.

Going deep into the Ambassador’s remarks, what becomes clear is that the US views the political parties now in agitation to be legitimate political parties whose corollary would be that the US views the agitation also to be a legitimate affair much to the discomfiture of some quarters who wish to dub the agitation as to have been a ploy of some political parties to come to power. Secondly, Ambassador Malinowski does admit that there exist political differences in and among the nation’s major political forces; thirdly he also hints that the stances taken as of now by the agitating political parties vis-à-vis the country’s pressing issues have so far remained negative; fourthly, he also mentions that the political parties must exhibit their sincerity in initiating serious discussions that leads to an end to violence which till today they have not; and finally he warns the political parties to be serious on the deteriorating situation of the country or else Nepal might not be able to secure a rightful place among the democratic nations of the globe.

Though Ambassador Malinowski deplores the break-down of the most recent peace talks in between the government and the rebels, he, however, still favors a sort of dialogue between the two warring sides.

“The US government has been consistent in its encouragement and support of dialogue between the government and the rebels to resolve their conflict, and we have made our stance known to all parties as well as publicly through the media”, says Ambassador.

The US envoy Also made it clear that the “anti-terrorism activities agreement is actually designed to be an encouragement to friendly countries to join in the international effort to fight global terrorism”. To recall, the Maoists rebels have time and again criticized the Nepal-US agreement on anti-terrorism activities alleging that it was a sort of US interference in the Nepalese internal affairs. The US clearly says that it was not as alleged by the Maoists.

In the meanwhile US Assistant Secretary of State, Ms. Christina Rocca, said in Delhi, a day prior to the Ambassador’s presentation at the FNA in Kathmandu, that the US would wish to see the Indian good offices being used in sorting out the Maoists issue in Nepal.

“India’s historic, cultural and social ties with Nepal continue to make it the most important outside influence on events in that country”, says Rocca.

Ms. Rocca apparently wishes to convey to Nepal that it would be an act of wisdom if Nepal sought Indian support in sorting out the issue of the insurgency. Analysts fail to understand as to whether Ms. Rocca’s statement is an advice to this country or an instruction?

But there is nothing to panic. Ms. Rocca quickly hastens to add, “working in tandem, our governments can help Nepal defeat the Maoist threat and reestablish democratic institutions responsive to the needs of the people”. IN saying so, the US clearly wishes Indian support to go in tandem with that of the US vis-à-vis the Maoists issue in Nepal.

Ms. Rocca’s subtle remarks in favor of India must have pleased the Indian envoy seated in the dais of the FNA sponsored program as one of the speakers who later came heavily down against the Maoists.

To recall, the Indian foreign secretary. Kanwal Sibbal, is on record to have stated long time back in Paris and Delhi that Nepal must tell India whether she wanted Indian support in this regard or not?

The fact is that India wishes to be one and the only one mediator in between the Nepal government and the Maoists in arriving at a solution to the almost eight years old insurgency issue in Nepal. High placed sources in Kathmandu maintain that India would love to hate third country’s mediator role in the solution of the Maoists insurgency. Now that the US has hinted that India must use her “influence” must have come as a pleasant surprise for the establishment in New Delhi.

Ms. Rocca, nevertheless, admits frankly that the emergence of the Maoists in Nepal had some intrinsic reasons, for example, poverty, no security and under-development etc. and that the US programs in Nepal were all intended to facilitate the government’s efforts both to restore security and to focus on development and poverty which in the words of Ms. Rocca “some of the social ills that initially gave rise to the Maoists”.

This means that the US is in full knowledge as to what were the root causes for the sudden emergence of the Maoists in this country.

Ms. Rocca’s statement in Delhi and Ambassador Malinowski’s expressions in Kathmandu have come close on the heels of an abrupt failure of the peace talks in between the Maoists and the establishment side.

Can King Gyanendra sack Thapa using article 127?

Kathmandu: President Girija Prasad Koirala, the commander of the ongoing “people’s movement” needs the revival of the now dissolved parliament. According to him, the revival of the parliament could bring back the derailed constitution and thus the democratic system back to the original track.

The leader of the UML, Madhav Kumar Nepal, strongly favors the revival of the House by the King but would not mind if he is allowed to function as the nation’s prime minister and told to head an all-party government.

Others in the agitating coalition have already made it known that the major political parties in the coalition against the monarch’s October 4 moves were cheating them. The charge of the smaller parties is that the UML and the Congress have in the recent days weakened the bonds of the coalition against the King the moment they calculated that the King upon his return from London could heed to their political demands. This is a charge that the major political parties have yet to refute.

Sher Bahadur Deuba, the sacked prime minister, still is beating his own drums saying that the King can absolve himself from all the allegations of having initiated acts that tantamount to regression if the latter restored his government.

The international community based in Kathmandu, including the US, the UK, France, Germany, Finland and Denmark, wishes the political parties to shun their differences and initiate activities that not only brings back the derailed constitution and the democratic processes to its original rails but also could handle the Maoists issue. In saying so, the international community hints that Nepal can’t exist as a democratic nation in the comity of nations for long unless all the major political forces joined hands in arresting the ailments that have gripped the country of late including those of the Maoists. Though not directly, but the US side the other day has dared to suggest the monarch also to contribute in the process that ensures Nepal as a democratic country in the midst of nations of the globe.

Though some of the basic elements that are demanded in a democratic system were missing in Nepal, but then yet we have been forced to support this country hoping that one fine morning things will come to order”, say diplomats from democratic nations posted in Kathmandu.

This clearly means that the dwindling state of democratic system in Nepal has already become a matter of serious concern for the major donors of Nepal who wish that the King too acted fast in order to institutionalize the system and fight the violence that has already crippled the nation.

The King is silent.

What is in his minds, no body knows. Whether he favors Deuba, or Koirala or wishes to elevate Madhav through the use of the same controversial article 127, no body knows.

Intellectuals have so far failed to read the King’s mind. Some say that the King will prefer to continue with Thapa but would wish the political parties to join the Thapa cabinet so that the cabinet thus formed looked like an all-party government. The political parties have already said no to such an arrangement.

Others say that the King would wish to restore the parliament but would demand from the legislative to endorse his past acts and the ordinances issued after October 4 last year so that history doesn’t blame him for having gone against democratic system. Yet others say that the King is ready for the restoration of the now dissolved parliament provided the agitating parties delete from their eighteen points demands the points that relate to the monarchy and the army.

All said and done, no body knows how the King will proceed in the coming days.

However, Bam Dev Gautam, for example, provides only three options left for the King at the moment.

The king either can take over the entire charge of the country and issue ban orders on the political parties much the same way as it was the case in the early sixties or can invite the Maoists to take up the affairs of the country on their shoulders and finally the King as the last option can seek the support of the political parties in steering the nation.

Analysts say that the first two options appear neither desirable nor feasible in the changed context in the world. If it is so, then the third option appears both desirable and justifiable as well.

But here again, how the King is viewing the emerging situation in the country specially after the talks broke with the Maoists, no body knows.

Question remains: whether the King can and should go alone or should proceed along with the support of the major political parties now in agitation.

Yet another question remains intact: Will Thapa resign if King Gyanendra instructs him to do so? Will not Thapa create problems for the King if the latter wished to elevate the ranks of Madhav or even that of Deuba.

To recall, the King can’t dismiss Thapa from his current post as Thapa is invested with executive powers. Is the use of the article 127 pretty enough to sack Thapa? Keep on guessing.

Conscious Media Forum established

Kathmandu:  A group of professional, skilled and committed personalities from both the print and the electronic media have come together to establish a media forum, Conscious Media Forum, CMF, aiming at motivating professional journalists for quality reporting and use of media in social issues confronting the country.

The CMF aims at addressing the issues pertaining to different vulnerable groups such as drug users, sex workers, migrant workers and etc. The forum also wishes to make aware the public about the issues being confronted by the above mentioned vulnerable groups.

However, the CMF will concentrate its efforts in focusing HIV/AIDS issues and its socio-economic, cultural and social impacts.

Other sectors wherein the CMF will engage itself are health, human rights, education and issues of the conflicts.

The CMF believes that it has to give due attention to the plight of those who have been very badly hit by the continued spate of violence in the country for all along seven years or so.

The office bearers of the CMF are as follows: Kiran Pokhrel, Radio Sagarmatha; Gokarna Bhatta, Nepali Manch; T.N.Ghimire, The Telegraph Weekly; Krishna Bhandari, Pro-Public are the President, Vice President, Secretary General and Secretary respectively.

Other members include Suman Kharel and   Khem Karki.

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