I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Madhav no more a consensus candidate!

Kathmandu: Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa despite his Himalayan failures during the course of his Hundred Days, the honeymoon period, in government appears determined that he will not resign under normal circumstances.

This he revealed the other day when he invited his own disgruntled party men at a luncheon in his official Baluatar residence.

“Remain assured friends, I will not resign. The time has not come yet to tender resignation. The talks that I will tender my resignation are all wild rumors having no base in that. Don’t get carried away”, is what Thapa told his admirers and party workers who had gathered to enjoy the sumptuous luncheon.

While Thapa’s revelation might have encouraged his followers in the party, his blunt remarks must also have come as a bolt from the blue to those who have had already stitched Daura-Suruwal  (Nepal’s national dress) hoping that one fine morning Thapa would resign and the King might invite them to take over the charge of Singh Durbar.

Thapa not only told the gathering that he would not resign but also clearly hinted that he would now go in for the expansion of his mini-cabinet by inducting some leaders from less-known political parties.

Sources close to Thapa say that the Prime Minister is at the moment extensively busy in sorting out the names whom he wishes to induct in the cabinet prior to the Dashain festivals.

The same sources say that Thapa might induct one from NSP splinter led by Badri Mandal, one Mr. Narayan Singh Pun from the Samata Party; one from namesake Hariyali party and a sizeable number from his own party-the RPP.

Prime Minister Thapa hopes that he could steer the nation with the support of the smaller parties which means that neither he will resign nor he would care for the participation of the mainstream political parties now in agitation.

Thapa has apparently been told by the King to expand his cabinet, if possible, by inducting some from the agitating parties in order to give it a shape of an all-party government. Thapa has failed so far. The agitating five Monday afternoon declared that they will not join the Thapa cabinet come what may.

This means that Thapa will continue as the nation’s Prime Minister but would continue his efforts at seducing his colleagues in the conglomerate of the big-5 so that the general population could honor his sincerity.

Should this mean that Madhav Nepal, the UML leader, is still far from bright and the sunny days? Should this mean that Thapa has for the time being capped all the possibilities of Madhav Nepal being elevated to the Prime Ministerial ranks?

Perhaps yes!

That Madhav Nepal has already concluded for a while that his days were not forthcoming due to Thapa’s fresh statements, it is only but natural that the communist leader should now begin threatening the King.

A reflection to that becomes clear when Mr. Nepal says, “ Those who talk of adjusting oneself to the changed realities of the 21st century should also act that in no way goes against the sovereign rights of the people or else the declaration becomes meaningless”.

A careful analysis of this statement reveals that the communist veteran is well aware of the King’s earlier declaration wherein he had time and again said that he would be a King befitting in the 21st century. Madhav’s statement means that the King is not acting according to his own earlier statements. He then in the same vein wishes to hint the King that he has stripped off the people from their sovereign rights as granted and accepted by the 1990 constitution. The Communist stalwart then warns the King not to go against the wishes of the people.

Madhav Nepal is a changed personality now. The person who till the other day deliberately avoided acquiring any tough posture vis-à-vis the King has suddenly started sending strong signals to the Palace. This clearly means that Madhav Nepal is not happy with the King’s stoic silence that he has been keeping as regards to the country’s political situation.

Mr. Nepal’s outburst also appears to have been guided by the King’s denial a post for him for which he, as rumors have it, was roughly assured by the monarch prior to his trip to London.

It should not only be Mr. Nepal who felt have threatened from Thapa’s fresh statements but the latter’s disclosure must have come as a disappointing note for the rest of the leaders in the big-5 conglomerate.

However, Madhav Nepal must understand that he remains no more a consensus candidate as his own colleagues in the “ five party alliance for the restoration of democracy and constitutional rights of the people” put it.

Dr. Ram Saran Mahat and a host of others in the congress and some in the alliance itself have started hinting Madhav Nepal that he no more is a consensus candidate for the post of the Prime Minister simply because things have changed.

Then he was. Now he is not.

This changed political perspective also could have added to the mental agony of Monsieur Nepal. The King is not yielding in his favor. The political parties now say that he is no more their consensus candidate. Add to this the possible pressure on the King from the international community suggesting the monarch not to “increase” the strength of the communists for obvious reasons. Surprisingly, the Indian establishment too appears to have gone against Madhav Nepal being elevated to the ranks of the post of the Prime Minister. Is it that Thapa outweighs Madhav in their scheme of things? Keep on debating.

Poor Madhav Nepal. But then yet, a sizeable chunk of the Nepali population has soft corner for Mr. Nepal. But does that possess any meaning? But people’s support is what a political leader of the sort of Mr. Nepal should keep on counting in a democracy.

Pun exhibits his desire to act again as facilitator

Kathmandu: Former Minister Narayan Singh Pun is once again in the news.

Mr. Pun is the one who very tactfully brought the Maoists rebels to the negotiating table during January this year when he was serving in the cabinet of Prime Minister Lokendra Bahadur Chand.

Rumors had it that Mr. Pun went extra miles in having been able to convince the firebrand and the radical Maoists to talks and managed a cease-fire in January itself.

Former Minister Narayan Singh Pun basically a pilot turned congress abandoned the congress party under Girija when he concluded that his political career will never see a height until he remained under arrogant Girija and thus very pleasingly decided to form a party of his own—the Samata Party.

Assessing Mr. Pun as a hard working and honest nationalist, the King inducted him in the Chand’s cabinet.

At a time when the political parties were up against the King’s October 4 moves, the King presumably instructed then minister Pun to initiate a sort of dialogue in between the rebels and the government of that time.

Pun exhibited his courage and proved his political acumen when he not only convinced the rebels but also brought them to the table.

Mr. Pun’s subtle diplomacy yielded positive results indeed but the process which he had started got a stumbling block when Chand was suddenly replaced by Prime Minister Thapa and the man who managed a ceasefire in the country and brought the rebels to the talks was found missing in the new cabinet formed by Thapa.

With the sudden failure of the third round of  talks between the Maoists and the men in the Thapa government, Pun apparently exhibited his desire to serve the country once again provided the State approved his political acumen.

That Pun is yet to be honored by the State, he still is hopeful that he could bring back the rebels once again to the table.

In effect, if one were to believe Mr. Pun’s recent disclosures, one is forced to conclude that things had moved smoothly and that the Maoists too had almost accepted the King’s utility in the country and that the rebels were tentatively become accommodative vis-a-vis the matters pertaining to the demands of the constituent assembly.

If Mr. Pun is speaking the truth then one is forced to question as to which factors, albeit political ones, damaged the peace-talks altogether? Question could also be raised as to what prompted the rebels to harden their already softened stand vis-à-vis the monarchy and the constituent assembly?

Albeit, the Maoists then too had not softened their stance regarding the Nepali army. In effect, they wished and apparently continue to wish that their own people’s army be assimilated into the mainstream army. The State then rejected the rebels’ demand and perhaps continues to reject it yet.

Be that as it may, what makes Mr. Pun so confident that he could once again bring the rebels to the talk-table? The fact is also that the Maoists have yet to clarify their stance on whatever Mr. Pun said last week in front of the Nepali press. Should this mean that some technical problems marred the talks this round? Or is it that the Maoists were told to discontinue the talks once again and resume their acts of violence in order to bend the government to their declared demands?

What is clear from their resumption of spate of violence is that the rebels now wish to confront the state with a position of strength. They apparently feel that talking with the old regime was futile unless they presented themselves from a renewed position of strength.

What if former minister Narayan Singh Pun is offered a chance and allowed to act like as a facilitator? At least Mr. Pun is some what different than the previous “politically biased” and “duffer” facilitators.

What is the harm to the establishment in elevating the ranks of Mr. Pun as a minister in the expected cabinet expansion? Prime Minister Thapa should think twice.

Leaders differ on constituent assembly issue

Kathmandu: Comrade Prachanda in his fresh statement says that his party will now acquire a strategically offensive posture against the “old regime” which appears he has already set on that path taking into account the recent spate of violent activities his “people’s army” have unleashed against the State security personnel.

Just to counter the Maoist threat the State security personnel too presumably have acquired a similar posture which gets reflected from the killings of the rebels in numbers. Undoubtedly, the losses on the rebel side are too big, numerically speaking.

However, what is common in both is that the innocent civilians are also being killed in the process.

Comrade Prachanda immediately after the suspension of the third round of talks had made it abundantly clear that continuing talks with the old regime was simply meaningless since the latter wished to seduce the Maoists to come under the umbrella of a constitution which, in their opinion, was as good as a dead one, specially after the October 4 moves of the King last year.

“A party that advocated republicanism has come down to the demand for a constituent assembly”, said Comrade Prachanda in the said statement.

His statement clearly indicates that his party would now not come down than the constituent assembly to which the “old regime” under Thapa would not accept under normal circumstances. However, immediately after the abrupt failure of the third round of talks, government sources had hinted that they could have talked on that line as well suggesting that the government could sit on the table again to discuss the matter with the Maoists.

Conflicting reports from Nepal’s political parties continue to boggle the minds of the general population. If, for instance, Deuba’s congress would not mind granting the elections to the constituent assembly provided the rebels laid down their arms, then for the Girija’s congress it is different. It should be clear to Deuba that neither the rebels will lay down their arms nor Deuba will have to come to the rescue of the Maoists. With the arms and the ammunitions, the Maoists are Maoists or else what is in the name? Unconditional surrender of the arms by the rebels at time of the peace-talks neither has happened anywhere in the world nor the Nepali rebels would do so simply to please Deuba.

Girija and his party, as per its manifesto accepted some fifty years ago continue to advocate a constitutional monarchy in the country. However, it could abandon its stand on constitutional monarchy if the King did not yield to their party’s demands which being the reinstatement of the now dissolved house and an all-party government invested with all the executive powers that they consider still lay with the King.

“We can go to any extent against the monarchy should the King continue to ignore our eighteen point demands”, says a congressite close to Girija. This means that if the King toed the congress line then they will as usual favor a constitutional monarchy and if the King doesn’t show any inclination to yield to their political demands would mean that the congress can join hands of the Maoists for a republican state as demanded primarily by the insurgents.

A further analysis of the congress’ present stance makes it amply clear that any one who differs with their political stance should prepare himself to face the wrath of the party which can extend to any length. This should explain congress’ pattern of functioning.

There are some UML stalwarts who too advocate the idea of constituent assembly. However, the central command has so far remained silent on this question. Instead the party has from the beginning ignored the Maoists demand for a constituent assembly. But yet what could be predicted is that the party, the UML, will presumably not wait ad infinitum, for the King’s positive response to their eighteen points demand. For the UML, acuiring power at any cost is the real issue. The party now cares little of the deteriorating fate of the country. All that the party now needs is the chair in Singh Durbar. Who knows time permitting the party might out of frustration join the ranks of the Maoists and begin demanding not only a constituent assembly but going much beyond that?

So far, the UML leaders has exhibited their restraint on the matters raised by the Maoist rebels and appear in favor of the talks so that peace is restored in the country.

The smaller Left parties are in a fix. Because of their meager strength, the smaller ones appear more like the tails of the bigger parties than in reality a political force. The splinter group of the Sadbhavana, the miniscule NMKP and the party led by Amik Sherchan in effect are political entities albeit but virtually having no say in nation’s politics. This makes them to toe the lines of bigger friends with a hope that they too get the power booty if their bigger friends bounce back to power.

Amik Sherchan, for one, at times has said that the demand of the rebels for a constituent assembly should be given a chance. The NMKP leader Narayan Man has yet to speak his mind.

The ruling RPP leader, Pashupati Rana has made it repeatedly clear that the elections to the constituent assembly is out of question in the present day context.

All put together, leaders themselves appear divided on the issue of the constituent assembly which is what is hampering the cause of the Maoists rebels.

Unless the rebels convince their fellow colleagues in other political paraphernalia for a chorus with regard to the constituent assembly, the establishment does not appear to be in a mood to grant it so easily as might have been thought of by the insurgents.

India’s NDC team in town

Kathmandu: A 21 member team from the National Defence College (NDC), India, is presently on a four day visit to Nepal from Sep 22 to 25, 2003, states a press note issued by the Indian embassy in Kathmandu.

The press release further notes: “ National Defence College of India is an apex institution engaged in the study of the higher direction of policy at the national and international level which senior military and civilian officials may be called upon to handle in the course of their careers. The course is attended by senior officers of the Indian Defence Forces and Civil Services as well as Armed Forces Officers of friendly foreign countries. At present, Brig Gen Prakash Bahadur Basnyat of the Royal Nepalese Army, is also attending this prestigious course.

As part of their curriculum, the College organises tours to neighbouring and other foreign countries to enable student officers to interact with their counterparts and to acquaint themselves with the socio-political, economic, defence and foreign policy aspects of the countries they visit. With this objective in view, the members of the NDC team will be exchanging views with senior civil and military officials during their current visit to Nepal. The visiting team will pay a courtesy call on the Rt. Hon'ble Prime Minister of Nepal, Mr Surya Bahadur Thapa, Chief Secretary, Mr Bimal Prasad Koirala, Foreign Secretary, Mr Madhuraman Acharya, Defence Secretary, Mr Madan Prasad Aryal, Vice Chairman, National Planning Commission, Dr Shankar Sharma, SAARC Secretary General, Mr QAMA Rahim, and also meet Rt. Hon’ble General Pyar Jung Thapa, Chief of the Army Staff of the Royal Nepalese Army. A similar visit had taken place in 2002.

The visiting NDC Team is headed by Maj Gen Ashok Vasudeva, VSM, Senior Directing Staff (Army) of the College. Besides Indian civil and military officers, the visiting team has officers from Algeria, Thailand, Phillippines, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

Frustration grips agitating five parties 

Kathmandu: Contrary to the expectations of the agitating five party coalition now up against the monarch’s October 4 moves, the monarch appears still reluctant in seeing the leaders of the said coalition.

The King does not appear to be in a mood to yield. The Prime Minister says he will not resign. This is what has been causing panic among the five party coalition who had expected that the King upon his return from London will in one way or the other would satisfy their “logical” demands and pave the way for the elevation of one consensus candidate to the post of the nation’s prime minister.

The logic behind their assumption was not that bad. In effect a rumor that spread like a wild fire in Kathmandu’s political circuit that the King through one of his undeclared advisor and a well wisher had sent messages to different political quarters that upon his return from London, he would see the agitating leaders and set the derailed constitution in the track. The rumor also hinted that the King has tentatively agreed to form an all party government and later could also reinstate the now dissolved parliament.

In addition to this, some diplomats also met the leaders of the agitating five and assured them that the King had assured them as well that after his return to Kathmandu, Nepal’s political process will run as the agitating five wished.

The political parties had reasons to believe of the good intents of the King and they instantly toned down their agitation to hint the monarch that they now expected the King to act on their favor.

The King has not responded yet. A few powerful Ambassadors in the mean time have told the leaders of the agitating parties not to create havoc in the country given the failure of the government-Maoists talks. Some even say that the Ambassadors of the UK, US and India have told Madhav and Girija Prasad to cooperate the incumbent government of Thapa.

That the foreign envoys have told the leaders of the agitating-5 to cooperate the Thapa regime gets reflected from a new posture that Prime Minister Thapa has acquired of late. Thapa says he will not resign.

The fact is also that even if the King wishes to dismiss the Thapa government, he can’t do so that easily. Thapa government is some what different that the previous Chand’s one. For the latter is invested with the executive powers which the King had wielded at time of the Chand government.

Thapa, a known conspiratorial brain, if sacked by the King might retaliate as usual which the King apparently knows. If the King sacks Thapa using the same article 127, the sacked one, read Prime Minister Thapa, will instantly join the ranks of the agitators and might create difficult situation for the King even. The King might not invite trouble for himself.

Thapa is not resigning. The King can’t sack Thapa. All these mean that the big-5 currently in their eighth phase of their agitation, if it were at all an agitation, will have to wait for some more time to come.

Frustration and only setbacks for the agitating five party coalition at least for the moment. The agitators should see meaning in India’s joining the chorus of the United States, the United Kingdom and the rest of the developed West who have collectively been telling the agitators to restrain themselves.

The significance lies here.

National | Letter  | Editorial | 2nd Impression | International | Past