I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Thapa demonstrating his indispensability

Kathmandu: Despite efforts to give the agitation popularity, the five major parties involved are frustrated by the lack of public support. In effect, the agitation against the alleged "regression" remains restricted to cadre. Its publicization in the media is exposed as partisan and the numbers now verify the extent of partisanization of government offices, professional organizations and supposed independent organs of civil society.

As much as this was known to the lay public, perhaps the agitation, its participation and the publicity provided, it has educated the foreign "friends" of Nepal better. The highly political Kathmandu population remains adamantly defiant. This effects the agitation more.

One element of confusion that prescribes Nepal’s conspiratorial alignments is the role of the government and its interests in the agitation. What is clear is that government reach in the media has been thoroughly exposed. The lack of political response and the mere use of administrative tools clearly reflect the limitations of the Thapa ministry. The immobilization of the defiant public makes obvious its limited political reach.

This renders suspect the Thapa strategy itself. The fact is that the five-party agitation was allowed public demonstrations against the King in Kathmandu city centers. Having exhausted its numbers game, the government ruse of the Maoists threat has allowed the failing numbers to agitate and demonstrate its presence scattered in the street corners. This has facilitated the agitation’s continuity.

In essence, thus Prime Minister Thapa is demonstrating his indispensability at this crucial juncture. He has successfully used a government responsible to the King to entrench himself in a position to claim the prerogative of conducting the elections while at the same time allowing the opposition to threaten the King directly.

One outstanding feature that renders the agitation limited to political workers of the five parties is the general awareness that the agitation is not for democracy but for the stakes in leading a government that must go to the polls.

As casual as the public is taking the disturbed switch manipulations for government from both the Thapa cabinet and the agitating parties have failed to attract even the monarchy it seems. The King’s return to Kathmandu pointedly as scheduled from Pokhara as if paying no heed to the suggestions that a burning Kathmandu had forced him to cut short his visit.

This would suggest that any change forthcoming would not reflect the provocation suggested but will conform to the routine constitutionalism that the King has insisted upon as is suggested in his New Year message.

Agitation yet to garner public support; Students to take up the challenge

Kathmandu: President Girija Prasad Koirala and general Secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal are in trouble of an unprecedented nature.

The fact is that the "movement" against what they call "regression" is waning by each passing days. The agitators, basically the party cadres, lifted from various districts have for their own unexplained reasons buying return tickets apparently to take care of their own private businesses back home.

Those who have been closely watching the algebra of the ongoing agitation say that things have come to the extent that the agitators and the policemen now say each other, "see you tomorrow evening" and in the process both the opposing parties apparently have developed a sort of familial bond which is what is killing the very spirit and the intensity of the agitation which is already on its thirteenth day.

The result is so far cipher, which must have come as a bolt from the blue to the sponsors of the said agitation.

Yet another reason is there which is in effect making the agitation "ineffective". The government of late has acquired a different trick. She is arresting those leaders considered influential for the purpose of the movement. In doing so the government is thinking that when the leaders leading the agitation remain absent, the agitation will hopefully become less effective and thus become redundant. In the process, the Thapa establishment has arrested scores of leaders mainly from the Jan Morcha and is talked to have labeled certain charges that amount to State Offence.

If it is so then what could be presumed is that the Thapa ministry would toe this line and try to make the agitation a meaningless affair.

What is really disturbing is that the Government concludes that the men from the Jan Morcha were in regular contacts with the insurgents and seeking the latter’s support. This reason, as per the government but not substantiated by others, perhaps has forced it to acquire a hardened posture against the agitators more specially those belonging to the Morcha.

What remains also to be ascertained as to whether the Maoists entered into the five-party agitation? The government says they had. The agitators reject the theory.

This notwithstanding, if the Thapa establishment could furnish the proof that the Maoists had surely penetrated into the agitation at the call of the agitators, then what is for sure is that the congress and the UML will be taken to task by the international community who generally possess different views vis-à-vis the Maoists.

The purpose of the agitation, as declared by the men fighting regression, is to force the King to come to their terms.

The King remains adamant on his fresh agenda of the elections. King’s new year message does hint that he will not budge until a new parliament takes its formal shape. How the parties will react to King’s fresh message will have to be watched. Add to this Prime Minister Thapa’s claim that his government was all set to hold the elections as per the instructions of the King. The agitating political parties have been pressed to the wall, both by the King and his loyal Prime Minister.

While for Koirala and Mr. Nepal, the ongoing agitation is a matter that directly affects their future political career, for the Prime Minister, it is a joke, a mere joke indeed.

Deliberate or otherwise, the sitting Prime Minister last week revealed to a group of HR activists that his friends in the agitating parties were in contact with him and that both have been considering on how to face the elections. Thapa also said that some leaders in the opposition themselves appealed the men in the security to fire bullets on the agitators. ( Those who could have said so, suspects Punarjagran weekly, could be former ministers Joshi and Khadka. The logic provided by the weekly is that while being in power they could have some intimate acquaintances in the security system as well. )

The political parties have dubbed Thapa’s revelations as malicious.

If Thapa is correct then this exposes the defeated psyche of the agitators. If the parties are correct then it equally exposes the conspiratorial politics of Thapa-a discipline in which Thapa holds an honorary doctoral degree.

Be that as it may, understandably, the agitation should have already become a heavy political burden for Koirala and Madhav Nepal. Their cadres can’t sustain the agitation for long. Unless they devise new schemes, the agitation will die a natural death. Fortunately enough for the agitators, the students affiliated to the political parties have apparently concluded that they will have to come to the rescue of their political parties.

The King favors elections. The international community, as a rule, can’t talk against the holding of an election in a democracy. Those who support the agitators and are against elections are doing so in a subdued voice.

How Koirala and Madhav Nepal proceed with the ongoing agitation will have to be seriously watched. They would do well if they convince the population as to for what cause they have been fighting in th first place? They must now tell the population why they need the formation of an all-party government? In the same vein they should also convince the population that how the replacement of Thapa with either Madhav or Koirala will be not an act of regression?

The fact is that even if they are made the prime minister, it is the same article 127 that will elevate their ranks to the Prime Ministerial posts.

The fact is also that since the five year term of the now dissolved parliament expired late Monday evening, Koirala now can’t push his claim for the restoration of the parliament.

The politics of the country now concentrates only on the formation of an all-party government.

Thapa government might announce a ceasefire: Maoists to follow?

Kathmandu: The Maoist rebels have of late acquired a two-pronged strategy, it is presumed.

While they have kept their option for talks open, equally true is that they have been continuing their violent activities that include mass abduction of innocent civilians as well.

The first option is attached with some conditions. The rebels have made it clear that they were ready for talks provided the United nations mediated their affair with the government. The government in the beginning of the Maoists proposal for the UN dismissed the idea forwarding certain geographical reasons. However, the government when pressed by intellectuals and the likes, both within and without, slightly revised its former rejection. Still, the government has yet to formally accept the idea of the UN mediation as pushed by the other camp.

Whether the government goes in for the UN mediation or not is not clear. However, what is clear is that the Maoists have bagged success in dividing the Nepali population into two halves: the first favoring UN as mediator, and the other summarily rejecting the idea forwarding UN’s past failures in scores of cases in the past.

Be that as it may, the Bhojpur and Myagdi attacks sponsored by the Maoists did provide a befitting reply to the government when it calculated that the rebels were a weakened force. However, that was not which they proved in Bhojpur and Myagdi. What is also equally true is that the Maoists too have apparently calculated that they can’s exterminate the RNA and hence the war could not be brought in their favor. This means that the Maoists own conclusion could have been that talks could provide them with a face-saving formulae and hence they could have pushed the idea of the UN mediation.

That the Maoists were ready for talks got reflected from the modest manner the insurgency released scores of abducted prisoners of war under the aegis of the International reed Cross Committee hinting that they were not a savage lot but had the knowledge on how to treat POWs at times of war under the stipulations of the Geneva Convention. This did hint that they not only abided by the rules of the game but were equally serious to the concerns of the vast population which was for the restoration of peace.

On the other side, the Maoists concurrently ventilated that while the talks for the talks could go on, they were no less concerned about on how to increase their internal strength in order to fight with the main army. In the process, some killings, some abductions and some destructions continued which could have been to press the State to hasten for the talks.

Unfortunately enough, Mathew Kahane, the UNDP Res.Rep in Nepal bluntly told that the UN could come to the scene only when approached by the two contending forces or else they will not step in. Kahane’s message must have come as a disappointment for the Maoists, at least for now.

That the Maoists still have plans to demonstrate their muscle gets reflected from the media reportings that they were all set to attack some more places in the near future. The districts targeted, as per the media reports, were located in three different locations. Reports have it that they have targeted districts in the Eastern, Central and the Western sectors. The idea is to attack at a time those three district headquarters much the same way they did in Bhojpur and Myagdi.

Taplejung, Khotang, Ramechhap and Sindhuli are some of the districts which apparently have become the next target of the Maoists. The other places, according to media reports, where the Maoists could attack could be Lamjung and Tanahun.

In sum, what is clear from all these media presumptions is that the Maoists will concurrently carry the resumption of the talks and the attacks on strategically vulnerable districts. This they would presumably do to exhibit the other camp that they were not at all a spent force and that they were still kicking and alive to take up the challenges coming from the other camp.

This could be a strategy to extract greater concessions at times of the talks, if held in the near future.

Informed sources claim that the Thapa government has already initiated contacts with the Maoists through its own channels. Sources close to Thapa camp say that talks would be resumed soon and that the difference lay only in who should first declare the ceasefire?

Government sources say that if the other camp does not declare ceasefire prior to the government, the latter might herself do it for the Maoists and the Maoists might follow the suit.

However, what the government sources do not reveal is that whether the UN will be invited or the talks will resume as usual with "highly incompetent" Nepali facilitators?

Media reports have it that Thapa might declare a ceasefire by the end of April.

The Maoists will hopefully endorse Thapa’s ceasefire announcement.

Non-partisan observers say that the Maoists will agree for the talks given the changed attitude of neighboring India which has acquired a tough stance vis-à-vis the Maoists of late. The Indian side now links the Maoists with the Kamta Pur Liberation Organization-an outfit that is creating havoc in India enjoying close cooperation supposedly with Nepal’s Maoists. The Indian assumption is that the KLO men sneak into Nepalese territories upon creating troubles in India and the Maoists hide in Indian territory after creating troubles in Nepal.

Is it that the Maoists really afraid of Indian wrath? Could be. Could be not.

However, looking at Mahara’s somewhat apologetic statement that henceforth their cadres will not damage the Indian vehicles plying in Nepal provides some food for thought to those who say that the Maoists can’t afford to annoy India for varied explainable and unexplainable reasons.

All said and done, the majority of the population believes that wisdom will prevail on both the sides and the talks will resume at the earliest.

India itself a problem ridden country

-Pradip Giri, Cong-D

Kathmandu: First time perhaps, a Nepali political leader has daringly accepted that we the Nepalese tremble with fear as and when we come across with an Indian official of even of the ranks of a Joint-Secretary. Nepali leaders appear to have come of their age now.

However, the Nepali leader did not reveal as to which leaders or for that matter which bureaucrats did tremble out of fear upon facing the Indian joint secretary.

Better late than never, sense appears to have prevailed in at least a section of the Nepali politics.

A known Congress ideologue, Pradip Giri, made this startling revelations Monday evening while talking to NTV.

Pradip Giri who is at the moment associated with Deuba’s congress also suggested that Nepal should face India without suffering any sort of complexes.

To a query of the NTV, Mr. Giri stated that India as a country too possessed all the negative symptoms that were the hallmarks of a South Asian nation.

"It’s a country that couldn’t save its own two prime ministers, Indira and Rajiv Gandhi from the wrath of the terrorists", added Giri. India equally is a problem-ridden country, he said.

Mr. Giri admitted that in the Nepal’s Maoists imbroglio, Indian role could be of a "necessary" nature, however, it can’t be a "sufficient" condition.

Those who had been watching NTV wherein he was being interviewed could not catch as to whether Mr. Giri was deriding at India or defending Indian stance vis-à-vis Nepal.

Regarding the Maoists issue, Mr. Giri though lauded the heroic courage of the Maoists insurgency but concurrently sent signals to the Maoists camp that they were fighting a war that could not come to their favor even after 200 years.

He suggested the Maoists to announce a ceasefire and lay down their arms prior to the talks with the government of the day. This notwithstanding, the congress-D ideologue opined that the nation now must move towards a constituent assembly-a line primarily advocated by the Maoists.

He finally suggested the monarch to come to terms with the agitating political parties and accept the role prescribed for him by the 1990 constitution.

It was natural that he demanded the restoration of his own party’s leader’s government dismissed by the King in order to correct the charges of regression and bring the derailed constitution to its original track.

Non-political entity talks political

Kathmandu: A non-political entity in all honesty too has come heavily down against President Girija Prasad Koirala.

The non-political body is nonelessthan Manisha Koirala, the grand-daughter of President Koirala.

Manisha, the daughter of congress stalwart, Prakash Koirala-the son of late B.P.Koirala, the other day bluntly told a gathering of the Rotarians that she was against what the five political parties were fighting against regression.

The Bollywood actress tried to defend the King and the government by deriding the agitation sponsored by the five parties. She also opined that for a person of Girija’s political stature, to head such a meaningless agitation only devalued Koirala’s long political career.

Manisha who only recently took part in a political rally that supported Bihar’s Laloo Prasad’s electioneering, however, preferred to keep aloof from Nepal’s politics.

It was only logical on her part to subscribe to the views of her father, junior Koirala, who has preferred this time not to support the agitation headed by his own uncle-Girija.

Opinion | Dateline | National |  5 Question  | Editorial | Letter | 2nd Impression | Views | International | Past