I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
PM Thapa aids agitation

Kathmandu: Events are likely to unfold fast this week. The five party agitations appear not to be being met politically. Instead, highhanded use of government machinery has begun to antagonize even the already partisan press. Locked down Campuses will mean the spreading of the agitation nationwide and the government appears utterly incapable of being the necessary shield between increasingly virulent political organizations and the King to which the government says it is accountable too.

Prime Minister Surya bahadur Thapa’s days are thus duly numbered but how he will go is any body’s guess. Thapa is among those politicians ranked among the agitating parties who have never left their seat of power willingly. What "kick" he will give is thus awaited.

Already, calculated rumors of Thapa denying the King his resignation have been circulated. Perhaps more mischievously if Thapa’s handling of the agitation is to be analysed, the harm has already been done. The use of the police force to pick republican ranting slogan students’ from an otherwise peaceful demonstration brought in the students’ as participants in a sagging agitation. The declaration of "violence prone" areas prohibiting dwindling numbers is the agitation has dispersed the agitators’ city-wide to hide their actual numbers. The attack on an already partisan but disorganized media now gives the media ruse to blatantly support the agitation. This strange phenomenon does merit deeper analysis.

The attack is on the King against "regression". A government that says it is responsible to the King is hardly the target of anti-regression. Otherwise Mr. Thapa has used his office well to organize for elections at the expense of the Monarchy. This is what exactly the agitating parties want for themselves.

Can Nepal afford continuation of highly volatile politics for so long?

Kathmandu: The five-party sponsored agitation is on. Burning of pneumatic tyres, pelting of stones and breaking the iron railings and what not what not have all become the hallmarks of the agitation basically designed supposedly to correct King’s regressive moves.

It has already become a routine affair and the Kathmanduites have to endure all these democratic/undemocratic moves because the agitating parties have been ventilating that the success of the ongoing agitation will herald a new Nepal wherein all the Nepalese will have their rights and democratic values secured for all time to come.

In the process, the agitators and the security personals do face each other on a regular basis with no signs of an end to the ongoing agitation.

The government has become ruthless in its action against the agitators. Even the media men covering the news of the agitation have been misbehaved, manhandled and handcuffed by the men belonging to the security agency-the police force.

With each broken head of the leaders, the leaders now in agitation claim that they will continue their struggle ad infinitum until the King yielded to their genuine demands.

The students affiliated to different political factions have already captured the streets and appear to proceed ahead with their goals come what may. The political parties in essence bank of the energy and the determination of the students’. In addition to this, several professional organizations have extended their solidarity to the ongoing agitation.

The nation is in a fix. It’s politics is taking new turns by each passing days and is moving from bad to worse.

The King apparently is hinting that he is watching the events seriously but he will take time to settle his scores with the agitators.

The commander of the agitation declares that the agitation has already attained a new height and its success was round the corner.

In the process, the lay men appear more confused and presumably are in a sort of sheer dilemma as to which side they should favor in the ongoing tussle: those of the agitators’ or of the monarch?

The confusion continues.

Of late, the international community based in Kathmandu is tight-lipped.

However, the outgoing United States Ambassador, Michael E. Malinowski on Monday broke the silence. Ambassador Malinowski clearly told that until and unless all the constitutional forces, implied the King as well, converged at one point, the Nepali crisis will continue to grow.

What the envoys from the European and the Nordic countries will assess the continuing Nepali crisis will be important an thus is seriously awaited by Nepali academicians and the media men alike.

Nevertheless, Indian Ambassador, Shyam Saran, appears to be on the move. That he is already on the move gets reflected from the fact that it was he who met the King and the Nepali leaders. Upon his meetings with Nepal’s "key-players", Ambassador Saran "suggested" the confronting parties to patch up their differences in the larger interest of Nepal and her population.

What was funny of it all that Ambassador Saran disclosed upon his meeting with the King that the King told him that he would accept any one as the country’s next Prime Minister other than Nepal’s two political stalwarts, Koirala and Madhav Nepal.

Question now arises as to why the King needed Ambassador Saran’s good-offices to tell this much to the agitating Nepali leaders? Logically, if the King so desired he could have ventilated his inner wishes through his own aides which he did not, at least which is being given to understand.

Analysts understand that the leaders still possess respect for the monarch who could have been communicated about the King’s desire straight in order to ease the situation and in turn the leaders could have searched a competent one from among them, except the two, and settled the matter amicably.

To recall, Koirala and Madhav Nepal are on record to have told the press already that they are agitating not for the Prime Ministerial Chair but for the institutionalization of the democratic right s of the people. If this were so, the King have had a free hand in selecting a new prime minister.

What is also possible is that the Ambassador could have exceeded his functions? But then it is hard to believe that he could have done so.

Analysts now prefer to brush aside all that could have transpired in between the King and Ambassador and what appeared in the media as any further elaboration of this issue will only damage the prospects of a possible patch-up in between the King and the political parties.

But then yet, the story does not end here.

What is significant is that Ambassador Saran leaves for Delhi after his famous meeting with the King and the Nepali leaders. This is significant in the sense that his briefing in Delhi could have its impact in the country’s politics sooner than later.

Fortunately, Delhi has been time and again reiterating that the King and the political parties must reconcile with each other and move together.

Analysts prefer not to question the very intentions of the Indian Ambassador for he has met the King and Nepal’s leaders and his meetings could have been made possible when the dignitaries extended their invitations to him. Unless invited, he would not have seen them on his own.

Summing up, what comes to the fore is that we have been inviting Indian mediation for sorting out our own petty political matters-the ones we ourselves complicated and brought this crisis. It was not India that complicated our matters, plainly speaking.

Blaming others for our own faults will boomerang.

Nepali leaders reflective of peculiar Nepali environment
Maoist insurgency a homegrown issue

-US Ambassador, Michael E. Malinowski

Kathmandu: The outgoing American Ambassador to the Nepali court, Michael E. Malinowski, has shielded his case by saying that he was not being "recalled" by his home-government instead of what is being given to understand by a section of the Nepali media.

Ambassador Malinowski said this while talking to a choosen group of Nepali media men Monday evening at the residence of Ms. Constance Colding Jones, the Public Affairs Officer at the US embassy.

Responding to a query of a media man, the US Ambassador said that as and when he have had talks with King Gyanendra, he was assured by the King that he were devoted to constitutional monarchy and multi-party system in the country.

The US representative inferred that the Nepali monarch remained within the confines of what had been predetermined for him in the 1990 constitution.

To yet another query on the holding of the elections in the country, the US envoy though subtly favoured holding of the elections, he also in a reluctant mood maintained that "let the elections be held when the security situation" improved.

"Let the people of Nepal decide their representatives through elections", is what Ambassador Malinowski said of the elections.

He however, admitted that Nepali democracy is facing manifold challenges and the country’s politics had been drifting from the shores.

In saying so the US diplomat wished to hint that the foremost political actors, including the monarch, had maintained a distance in between them, which should not have been the case.

"The US has a single interest in Nepal and that being supporting its democracy that is apparently in trouble. This is our interest here and nothing more than that", Malinowski stressed.

In the same vein, the US diplomat bluntly told the gathering that he couldn’t imagine even the return of an authoritarian regime in this country.

This puts to rest to the misgiving of a section of the intellectuals and leaders here who of late had been ventilating that the US by taking the side of the monarch had been prompting the King to transform himself into an active monarch.

"All the legitimate forces must act together and bring the Maoists to the table and then go to the root causes of the uprising", added the Ambassador.

He opined that negotiations must go with the Maoists but also suggested to remain alert.

To a query of this paper as to how he found Nepali leaders? Ambassador Malinowski said (sic): "It’s reflective of peculiar Nepali environment. You have chosen them".

Implied perhaps in his reaction was a hidden message that when "you the Nepalese have yourselves chosen a leader for yourselves, good or bad, bear with them".

Ambassador Malinowski summarily rejected the tittle-tattle that India was not happy with Nepal because of the US growing influence here in the recent years.

" It’s all rubbish. We continue to have an intimate relation with India. If it were so, I would have been indicated on the issue", Malinowski added.

According to the US envoy, the Maoists insurgency was a homegrown issue, which have got to be handled by Nepal.

But then yet, the Ambassador wished the Indian engagement in the Maoists issue in one way or the other. He in effect said "India must be a part of the solution to Nepali issues".

On the probable role of the UN as demanded by the Maoists, the US diplomat said that "it should be best decided by Nepal herself".

Asked on his reported variation with his European colleagues on some Nepali issues, he categorically said that there had been not any such particular issue on which they differed.

Unsubstantiated reports say that the US and the European countries differed on the issue of putting money on training the armed and the police forces. While the US provided money to arm the security men and concurrently warned that the forces must minimise the growing HR abuses. The other camp neither pumped money but reserved the rights to take to task the security forces for their alleged HR abuses.

"They can do their part as well", is what Malinowski said of the European countries. This perhaps subtly explains that the US diplomat and the European diplomats, including those from the Nordic countries, did differ on matters related to Nepal’s security forces.

Governance: Policy challenge for ESCAP region

Kathmandu: The Centre for Policy Research and Analysis, CPRA, released the ESCAP Economic and Social Survey of the Asia and Pacific-2004, last week amidst the presence of Nepali media men.

Welcoming the guests, Dr. Nirmal Pandey highlighted the salient features of the survey.

Presenting the ESCAP Survey-2004, Mr. Murari Prasad Upadhyaya, chief economist at the CPRA, said that the survey looked at the trends in the regional economy in 2003, prospects for 2004 and the policy choices facing the region.

Mr. Upadhyaya maintained that the survey stated that in 2003 the developing countries of the region continued to show strong growth, exceeding the 2002 performance by almost half a percentage point.

According to the survey, China’s remarkable performance has been central in sustaining the momentum of growth in the region as a whole with its GDP expanding by just under a quarter in only three years on the basis of strong investment and consumption demand.

In East and North-East Asia, the rapid growth of the Chinese economy was not able to fully offset the marked slow sown in KOREA and weaker growth in Taiwan province of China.

The survey reports that in South and South-West Asia, there was a marked improvement in the collective GDP growth rate in 2003, compared with 2002, along with the abatement of inflationary pressures over much of the sub-region.

Importantly, the ESCAP survey records that "Governance remains an ongoing policy challenge virtually throughout the region".

The ESCAP report does warn the governments to remain vigilant and take appropriate measures to shield their economies from financial market and exchange volatility. In the same vein, the report adds that the governments in the region should strive to enhance standards of governance, take actions to reduce corruption and focus on the long-term development of human resources through investment in education at the primary and secondary levels.

The Communication officer of the UN Information Centre, Ram Babu Shah, thanked the attending guests for their august presence.

Media men to face govt. challenge

Kathmandu: The Heads of various broad-sheet dailies and influential weeklies met at the premises of the Federation of Nepalese Journalists to chart a plan of action on how to defend the freedom of the press now under severe attack from the government side.

Several media leaders opined that it was time to face the challenges posed to the Nepali journalism by the establishment in a befitting manner.

President of the FNJ, Tara Nath Dahal, presided over the meeting. The attending media men wore black-badge throughout the duration of the meeting.

AIDS epidemic recent phenomenon in SA

Kathmandu: The Secretary General of SAARC, Mr. Q.A.M.A Rahim has said that even if HIV/AIDS epidemic were a recent phenomenon in South Asia yet the region has the largest number of people living with this menace in the world—more than 4.7 million.

He also revealed that while the region as a whole is in a low prevalence state at the moment, there are certain pockets where the infection has already reached an endemic level which naturally warranted concern of all the governments of the region.

Ambassador Rahim made these observations while making a statement at the signing ceremony of a Memorandum of Understanding in between the SAARC Secretariat with the UNAIDS in Kathmandu, Monday morning.

UNAIDS will now collaborate with the secretariat and place an focal person to support the development of the planned regional strategy and a plan of action.

Dr. Suman Mehta, the Associate Director, Asia Pacific and the Mid-East division Country and regional Support development, Geneva, who was specially sent here to sign the MoU with the SAARC, said on the occasion that AIDA amounted to a problem but having solutions as well. She said that the menace could be checked; it was possible to treat and prolong lives; it was possible to provide care and support and improve the quality of lives of those with HIV positive.

"The MoU that has been signed represented our joint commitment to collaborate on this matter with the national governments in the region", Ms. Mehta opined.

The Geneva office of the HIV/AIDS-UNAIDS,in Nepal will be henceforth looked after by Ms. Jacquline Bryd-the program officer.

Ms. Mehta exhibited her deep interest in having a sort of intimate relation with the Federation of Nepalese Journalists and has advised the local focal person to initiate contacts with the FNJ.

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