What needs to be done for sustainable conflict resolution and conflict management?

Krishna Bahadur Bhattachan

'Hegemonic control' and partition and/or secession (self-determination) are two ways to eliminate or manage ethnic differences as suggested by John Mcgarry and Brendan O'Leary (1993). But this is out of the question in Nepal. Hegemonic control has lasted for the last 234 years and it cannot and should not continue. None of the political parties, organized groups and intellectuals have ever demanded for secession or partition. Out of the four strategies in finding solutions to ethnic conflicts, suggested by Sammy Smooha and Theodor Hanf (1992), partition and liberal democracy are again out of the question but the other two strategies, ethnic and consociational democracy, are considered closer to inclusive democracy. Arend Lijphart's consensual model of democracy could also be one of the appropriate solutions.

There are both desirable and undesirable solutions to open, surface and latent conflicts. Here I propose the following constellation of eight elements, taken as an organic whole, to be the best possible option for resolution and management of internal conflicts in Nepal.

Structural Elements

The constellation of four interconnected structural elements are:

Federalism: The parliamentary political parties have refused to accept the need for a federal structure of government to resolution and management of different types of conflict in Nepal. The Nepal Sadvabana party has demanded for regional federalism, the Nepal Janamukti Party for administrative federalism and the movement of indigenous nationalities have demanded for ethnic autonomy. Some leaders of the Nepali Congress, namely, Mr. Dhundi Raj Sahstri and Mr. Narhari Acharya, have pleaded for federalism based on development regions. The Nepal Communist Party (Maoist) has promised to give ethnic, linguistic and regional autonomy with the right to self-determination under a semi-federal structure of government.

Ethnic, linguistic and regional autonomy and sub-autonomy within autonomy: All 59 indigenous nationalities should be given the right to self-determination to decide which of them would like to stay with the federal government, which of them would like to group together and enjoy autonomy, and which of them would like to have autonomy within an autonomous nation. For example, some indigenous nationalities such as the Rai, Limbu, Yakhha and Sunuwar may form a Kirant autonomous nation. Indigenous nationalities with small populations such as Lapche may opt to stay with the federal government or enjoy sub-autonomy within an autonomous Kirat nation.

Among the Madhesis, the Madhesi indigenous nationalities would have ethnic autonomy and sub-autonomy but in the case of Hindu castes, they may seek linguistic autonomy based on Maithil, Bhojpuri and Awadhi or autonomy and sub-autonomy based on geographical region.

The caste peoples of mid- and far-western hill region, which is located west of the Magarat region, may seek autonomy based on region. The Dalits and "high castes" may have their separate autonomous regions.

The actual number of autonomous and sub-autonomous nations and regions will be determined after the exercise of right to self-determination by all eligible groups.

Proportional representation: Proportional representation should be given to gender, caste and ethnicity, region, language, religion, and political parties.

Special Measures or Affirmative Action: Special measures should be in place for disadvantaged gender, caste and ethnic, regional, language, religious groups within the federal, autonomous and sub-autonomous nations and regions.

Process related Elements

There is a constellation of four interconnected process related elements. These are:

Round Table Conference: Round table conferences should be organized at three levels, namely (1) grassroots or local or community level, (2) regional level, and (3) national level.

Right to self-determination: As there is no group in Nepal demanding secession, the right to self-determination, in the Nepalese context, means the right to accept (a) autonomy, (b) autonomy of combined groups/regions, (c) sub-autonomy within autonomy, and (d) merger with federal government.

Referendum: Referendum should be held at three levels, (a) Federal, (b) National or Regional, and (c) Local. Constitutional, legislative and development issues should be decided by the referendum.

Constituent Assembly: One of the necessary tiers is representation of different caste, ethnic, language, religious, gender and regional groups. Other civil society organizations and political parties and independent elections could be other tiers. The constituency for constituent assembly must be redrawn with participation of all groups. There should be no conditionality. The people should be allowed to decide both issues of agreement and disagreement through a referendum. The peoples' verdict should be final, legal and binding to all parties, groups and the people.

(Courtesy: NEFAS/FES Publication)

Energy Resources Status

Santa Bahadur Pun, Water Resources Expert

World Energy Scene: Ninety per cent of the world consumption of primary energy is dominated by fossil fuels: coal-27%, oil-40%, and gas-23%. With nuclear energy contributing 7%, the contribution of hydraulic is a mere 2.5%. But if we look from the perspective of the world production of electricity, hydraulic has a far greater contribution of 19%, nuclear 18% and thermal (coal-38%, gas-15% and oil-10%) still shouldering a major burden of 63%.

World Hydropower Scene: The world gross hydropower potential is 40,500 TWH/year and of this 14,320 TWH/year is technically feasible 8,100 TWH/year economically feasible with 2,600 TWh/year already under production. The continents of Africa and Australia of not have a large hydropower potential whereas North America and Europe each having 1,000 TWH/year have already exploited over 70% of their potential. The huge potential of Asia: 3,500 TWh/year with only 20% tapped, and South America: 1,600 TWh/year with only 32% tapped are all waiting to b e exploited.

Future Energy Supply Scene: Due to the increasing living standards of the people, particularly of those in the developing countries, it is anticipated that in the next fifty years the global consumption of primary energy will increase threefold. This need will have to be met through fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas), nuclear power and renewable energies. Through the global reserves of non-renewable energies (fossil and nuclear) are adequate for te next century, there are two major problems associated with their exploitation: green house emissions which could result in dramatic climate changes with dire consequences on the hydrological system, the sea level rise and the non-acceptability of nuclear power particularly after the Long Island/USA and the Chernobyl/Russia accidents.

SAARC Energy Resources Scene:

It is noteworthy that the smaller SAARC nations have no fossil fuels, with Maldives having no energy resources of its own at all. Sri Lanka has already tapped over 60% of its hydropower potential. It has already realized that, like Maldives, it has to import its entire energy requirement. Nepal and Bhutan are luckier with their vast untapped hydropower potential. Bangladesh has a substantial reserve of national gas and it s is quite cautious about its usage, knowing fully well that this is its only indigenous energy resource. Pakistan is endowed with both natural gas and hydropower potential. India on the other hand is endowed with substantial amount of coal, hydropower and even natural gas, though with its burgeoning population its energy requirement is equally burgeoning.

The capacity of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh is predominantly thermal while Maldives is totally thermal. Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Nepal have hydro dominated capacities. This stark peculiarity between the larger and the smaller nations could be strength of this region with a win-win opportunity for all. They could complement each other and on the energy front this could be the major area of convergence for SAARC activities. Though India’s nuclear plants contribute at present a mere 3%, it has huge nuclear deposits 10,000 MWe and Thorium 300,000 MWe. India is already the 5th largest produce of wind power with 1260 MW already in production.

Existing Cross-Border Power Trade, Nepal and India: On but very little

In the last thirty years of power trading, the quantum stagnated at 50 MW though recently both the countries agree to increase this power exchange to 150 MW. The prevailing rate is about 4.5 US Cents per unit at the 132 KV level with an escalation of 8% per annum. Historically, during the last ten years, the balance of power trade has been in India’s favor with Nepal forced to import over 200 million units annually during the last four years. This chiefly emanated from the policy of pursuing the 400 MW Arun III for nearly a decade. With the commissioning of the 144 MW Kaligandaki hydroelectric project at the beginning of 2002, Nepal is expected to turn this tide when it will have an annual surplus of about 1,000 GWH. This will be possible only if Nepal can have access to the Indian market. But sadly the existing power exchange is on radial modes and not synchronous. The existing two major 132 KV interconnections (Duhbi/Purnea and Gandak/Ramnagar as well as the two more planned and agreed 132 KV interconnections (Dhalkebar/Sitamarhi and Birjung/Motihari) are unfortunately to the power surplus Eastern Regional Grid. The only 132KV interconnection to the power hugry Northern Regional Grid, Tanakpur/Bareilly, is used to import the free 70 million units that accrue from the Mahakali Agreement. Fortunately the planned and agreed Butwal/Gorakhpur 132 KV interconnection with the Northern Regional Grid will hopefully help to trade Nepal’s surplus power. The much talked about 6,480 MW Pancheshwar Project, which would have set the ground breaking rules on regional water resources cooperation in the whole SAARC region, is unfortunately in a limbo. So is the private sector led cross border power trading –the 750 MW West Seti Hydroelectric Project. Despite the government crying hoarse over its decade old hydropower policy and tinkering around with the new Power Trade Agreement (in contrast to the prevailing Power Exchange Agreement), the thirty years of power trading between India and Nepal is still shy and hesitant.

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