I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Koirala's third presidency

Kathmandu: President Girija Prasad Koirala is silent at the moment. He is perhaps sensing the mood of his own party colleagues over whether he should push his yet another candidacy for the Congress presidency or await a few months more so that the "irritated" colleagues by then will have exhausted.

The fact is that Koirala is internally determined for this third candidacy for the presidency but concurrently appears afraid what if his own party colleagues rally against his candidacy en masse? Thus he is forced to keep silence until an opportune moment for the declaration for his contesting for the presidency.

Now let's see what would happen to the congress with and without Girija Prasad.

With Girija Prasad yet again at the congress helm of affairs, things will not change much that means that Koirala will steer the party as he has been doing. Clearly speaking, with Koirala again as the president of the party would confirm that Congress is Koirala and vice versa and nothing more than that. In addition to these, what could be expected of him during his possible third round of party presidency that he will make sure that the party falls in the folds of the Koirala's so that a sort of ancestral lineage is drawn for ever. If this happens then senior Koirala would very much prefer to push his daughter, Sujata-Jost-Koirala at the first place and if he fails in his efforts in elevating his daughter's ranks in the party then he would have two options: either vote in favor of Sushil Koirala or if Shailaja comes to his terms then it could be Shailaja Acharya. If she disagrees to Koirala's terms then she would be dumped in the wastebasket.

However, there is the possibility that the party will come to a virtual standstill if senior Koirala shows his political preference for his daughter or for that matter any other who is supposed to be close to Koirala.

But then the fact is that Sushil and Shailaja are the ones who have dedicated their prime years in the party and hence if they so desire then the rest of the party colleagues will have to gulp the bitter pills for these two leaders are the senior most in the crowd of many in the party.

Sushil has already declared that he would not contest for the presidency if senior Koirala jumps in the race for the presidency. So would be perhaps the declaration of Ms. Shailaja in case Girija Prasad decides to contest the elections for the presidency. If Koirala is not in the race, let's assume for the moment, then Shailaja would wish to occupy the post of the presidency.

Poor Ram Chandra Poudel is the one who is expecting this time that he would be favored by the Koiralaites and the rest for the presidency. Could be his hoping against hope! Mr. Poudel is the one who has apparently felt the brunt of the Koiralaites as and when he has tried to elevate his image in the party.

Mr. Poudel, nevertheless, understands well that senior Koirala will not detach himself with the presidency until he counts his last breath but then yet trying to project himself to be in the race for presidency.

The fact is that senior Koirala knows very well that the moment he is out of the presidency, he will be stripped off of all the prestige and dominance what he commands while being the presidency and thus he would prefer to continue for the third round still. He also knows that being in a position means to be close to the power corridors for which he has a born-lust.

Indeed, in doing so he will make eloquent lectures and would assure his second generation leaders, the aspirants for the presidency indeed, that they will have honorable positions in the party and that the "bad-names" of the party will be brushed aside. Interestingly, Koirala's detractors will once again take his words in its face value only to be betrayed later as is the experience of the past.

Be that as it may, if Koirala retains the presidency, he would in all probability wish to unite the party for he now understands well that cost of living separate is far greater than the benefits of living together.

Let's presume that Koirala will announce his candidacy one fine morning or will manage several of his district level party men who will be told to demand Koirala's presidency once more. This tact he has exhibited in the past, to recall.

Nepali analysts feel very sorry for all those congressmen who wish to fix themselves in the chairs of Koirala.

Maoists encash Deuba's inability

By: N.ARYAL

Kathmandu: With the much-published RNA's action against the rebels in the far western district of Aacham is over, positive results, if any, are yet to be learnt from the security forces. However, what is for sure is that the Nepali military men were on the move come what may. With these actions of the security forces and the counter punch from the rebels side, the much awaited peace talks seems more distant if not impossible.

A proposal that was summarily rejected during the Prime Minister ship of Girija Prasad almost a decade ago has been reverted by a fresh decision of the Deuba government, which now allows the Royal Nepali Army establishment to invest in the financial and business sector of the country.

As usual this media tinted issue was abruptly rejected by the Government's spokesperson Minister of Information, Mohammad Mohasin and accused the media for misleading the public in this regard.

If it is not so then mature analysts opine that such a decision might not come in the larger interest of the nation ultimately. A section of political analysts also claim that the RNA's possible investment in the financial sector mean the militarization of those sectors as well.

The Nepali political sector and the Maoists have yet to provide their comments on this count.

Now coming to the political sector, which has remained as corrupt as before this week as well, self-gain still remained the top most priority. This could well be seen from the recent actions of the leaders of the Nepali politics.

For Example, Girija Babu at the age of 87, remaining at the top of the NC for the three consecutive times, is yet again contesting for the highest position in the coming Birgunj convention scheduled early next year. The recent statement made by the G.P henchman, another Koirala in the NC, Sushil Koirala not to contest the election if Girija wants to remain at the top, proves this fact. The much talked power transformation in the NC to the next generation still remains a distant future.

Mr. Sushil Koirala speaking at Rajbiraj, a Eastern town on the banks of the Koshi River, blaming the leaders of Nepal Students Union, Gagan Thapa and Guru Baral, told that the student leaders were engaged in internecine feud that if left unattended, could have ultimately its negative impacts on the very prestige of the mother party NC, which forced the party to its summary dismissal.

In addition Sushil also blamed the leaders of damaging the NC's image at the international front by adopting violent approach during the so-called protest against the regression, hints still many more years left for the young Turks of the NC to come to the power, at least GP sets a national record of becoming the Prime Minister for maximum number of times.

On the other hand Ram Chandra Poudel claims these allegations baseless and absurd. So what caused the dissolution of the Nepal Students Union is still a matter of scrutiny.

Sushil Koirala, who is also alleged to be a royal congressman, when declared that the government will be dissolved soon then it must deserve due attention.

In another event, K.P.Oli a Madhav Nepal rival in the UML, in his recent utterances hinted that neglecting the UMLs role in the cabinet could well take the government 30 years or plus to conduct the elections. This shows Oli's sheer arrogance, which has apparently come due to the non performing Prime Minister Deuba and his inability to at least officially call for the peace process.

Whereas his disappearance in Bangkok, Thai Capital after the BIMSTEC-EC meet has been wide open for discussions among the political analysts.

On the other hand adopting the Maoists path of the Constituent Assembly, Koirala wants to prove he is the closest ally of the Maoists at present. And refuting the proposal of Deuba to participate or to nominate his party's representative in the recently formed Peace Talks Committee, Girija who claims himself involved in talks with the Maoists to bring them on table is also on the big run to be the pioneer for the peace talks.

Madhav Nepal as usual is claiming his strong contacts with the Maoists and has urged the Government to initiate the peace talks several times.

Finally these utterances of secret peace talks could well prove to be just hoping against the hope, as Deuba's second chance for conducting a successful tenure in the cabinet seems slipping from his hand.

Spell out the bottom line

Kathmandu: Clearly the Maoists have been swinging the country's politics in a manner that they prefer.

While the insurgents have adequate contacts with the major political parties, the lame duck government under Sher Bahadur Deuba is confined to making statements that "things were proceeding in the right direction". What is also puzzling is that Deuba's cabinet ministers are talking differently on the resumption of the peace talks with the Maoists and in the process they appear to be confusing the people. Different brains have been providing different interpretations to the peace talks.

The fact is that all that the people so far know is that the government is ready for the talks on certain conditions to the extent that the establishment has times and again said that it was ready to proceed with the idea of the constituent assembly provided conditions were attached to it. Understandably, when the government talks of attaching conditions to the talks then it clearly means that it would not compromise to the two concepts: the continuation of the constitutional monarchy and multi-party democracy.

The Maoists too have made it abundantly clear through various statements that they will not come to the talks agreeing to the conditionalities pushed by the other camp.

This has stuck the resumption of the peace process, as far as could be seen.

However, what is so far not clear or has not been made clear by the Maoists is that what they wish to gain from the constituent assembly option? They have yet to spell out as to theirs opting to the constituent assembly is in no way going to damage the prospects of the continuation of the multi-party democracy. In the same vein the insurgents have so far not been clear as to whether they prefer the government to come to the talks by completely ignoring the ideal of the prevailing democratic system and the constitutional monarchical system in the country? Or whether the Maoists are coming to the talks so that they too could find a place in the mainstream politics of the country maintaining the status quo? The Maoists must now clarify as to what they need in effect? And they must now provide ample light on their would be role in case they get defeated in the constituent assembly elections? Would they abide by the fresh verdict if they fail? By the same token they must also clarify as to how they will proceed with the constituent assembly results if it went in their favor?

These were some of the pertinent questions that demand urgent clarifications and it is up to the insurgents to educate the people of their plans and would be actions on how they would wish the country to move?

What is also not clear is that what gains they wish to benefit from the constituent assembly elections? It is these that must come to the open prior to going to the talks.

In addition to these, what is also not clear is that if they come to the talks, would they come to the table throwing their avowed goals to the dustbin?

Under such circumstances, analysts say that unless both the sides express their real intentions and the agenda wherein they can compromise and where not, the talks would be mere talks only for the sake of talks.

This is what the majority of the population would love to hate. They need peace at any cost.

UN official to clarify; Mohsin rejects UN support

Kathmandu: Nepali establishment has so far exhibited its disinterest in allowing the United Nations mediation or for that matter the facilitation efforts in the possible talks with the Maoists.

The government, whether it be led by Chand, Thapa or even Deuba, all have remained convergent on the issue of the UN mediation forwarding the claim that since the issue were an internal one and hence the problem could and would be sorted out through the use of its own homegrown conflict management skills.

Contrary to the government views, most of the political forces of the nation plus a host of international friends have favored the UN mediation.

Needless to say, Comrade Prachanda remains adamant in seeking the good offices of the UN mediation for his own special reasons.

While this is the ground reality, the UN system has time and again hinted its desire to participate in the government-maoists talks but then concurrently says that it would do so provided both the warring parties agree to its mediation.

The fact is that the UN in the recent past has sent its special emissary, Mr. Tamrat, twice/thrice to explore the possibility of securing a role for the talks. However, with the government's straight "no" to the UN mediation, the international body is perplexed on how to proceed further?

Though the UN is disappointed with the government's no to its efforts for the talks, but yet the international body has not lost all of its hope altogether.

It is in this context, Nepal's political analysts see the impending trip of Mr. Kul Chandra Gautam, a Nepali national occupying a very high post at the UN system at the moment.

Mr. Gautam is scheduled to make a lecture at the Nepal Council of World Affairs this Friday afternoon and would in all likelihood explain as to what role the UN would wish to play, if allowed, in government-Maoists talks.

Mr. Gautam will also find it opportune to clarify the Nepali allegations that since he was close to some of the leaders of the Maoists insurgency and thus had been making statements that favored the insurgents.

That the government is determined not to seek UN good offices at least for the moment has been adequately made clear by Dr. Mohd. Mohsin while talking to a Tuesday weekly wherein he categorically rejects the UN support.

Dr. Mohsin also has remarked that the government was ready to become flexible to the extent possible but that should not mean that it would be a "limitless" flexibility. "Flexibility will not have limitlessness", Dr. Mohsin concludes.

Let's see how the UN high official presents his personal as well as the views of the organization he represents at the moment.

Press Release
EU urges end to violence

The EU Heads of Mission in Kathmandu met with the Minister of State for Foreign Affairs on 9 August to discuss recent developments in Nepal, incl. the grave human rights situation in the country, and to present an EU Presidency Declaration issued by the EU Presidency on 30 July 2004.

The EU Presidency Declaration reads as follows:

"The Presidency of the EU welcomes the formation of a multi-party government in Nepal under Prime Minister Deuba and the opportunity for peace, which this development presents. The Presidency of the EU pledges its full political support to the new Government in its efforts to resolve the crisis in Nepal.

The Presidency of the EU calls on all sides to the conflict to bring an end to the violence, to agree a renewed cease-fire as soon as possible and to look for practical measures to build confidence and create a climate for a meaningful and sustainable peace process. The Presidency of the EU also calls on all concerned to respect human rights.

In this context, the Presidency of the EU calls upon the government to take appropriate action to implement their Human Rights Commitment including the signature, without unnecessary delay, of the Memorandum of Understanding with the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights providing for substantial international technical assistance to the National Human Rights Commission in Kathmandu.

The Presidency of the EU expresses particular concern at this time about Maoist violence and other practices, including terrorist attacks, the use of child soldiers, extortion, abduction and forced indoctrination. It calls upon the Maoists to cease these activities immediately.

The EU will monitor the situation closely and will calibrate its policies according to developments."

Royal Danish Embassy
Local EU Presidency in Nepal

Au revoir Monsieur Ambrosini

Kathmandu: The French Ambassador to Nepal, Claude Ambrosini is winding up his four years Nepal assignment next week. We hope Ambassador Ambrosini, while in France, will continue his efforts in enhancing Nepal France ties at all the possible levels.

Unsubstantiated reports have it that Monsieur Michael Javier is succeeding the outgoing ambassador Ambrosini.

The Telegraph Weekly and Family wishes him a very happy and prosperous life.

FES Conflict reporting workshop commences

Lalitpur: The Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Nepal office, is organizing a three-day training on "Conflict Reporting" beginning today.

"A total of 15 journalists will participate in the course which will have a German expert on conflict reporting as the principal trainer, while three to four local resource personnel will also share their expertise to make the programme a rewarding experience for the trainees", the FES chief Dev Raj Dahal said yesterday talking to the Telegraph weekly.

According to Dahal, the training will impart skills to the attending journalists while writing stories on conflict.

Journalist flay Thapa's killing

Kathmandu: With the killing of a Radio Nepal Journalist, Dikendra Raj Thapa, August 11, by the Maoists, on allegation that late Thapa was an informer, several HR organizations in cooperation with the Federation of Nepalese Journalists have decided to ask the Maoists to explain their policies vis-à-vis Nepali press.

To recall, Maoists have graded Nepali press into two categories: a reactionary press and a people oriented press.

Upon receiving the Maoists response, the HR organizations and the FNJ will form its own policies on how the Maoists insurgency be treated henceforth.

Various organizations enraged by Thapa's death have questioned that were the killings justified simply on grounds that the person being killed or killed was held a suspect?

"The one who hurls charges against the other himself assumes the role of a judge", is simply a surprising phenomenon acquired by the Maoists in the recent days, lament the HR institutions and the media men who have issued a statement criticizing the killing of Thapa.

Impact of conflict on Journalism

1. Murdered- By state: 9; By Maoists: 6; Unknown: 1

2. Abduction- By State: 4; By Maoists: 3

3. Threat to Life: More than 1 dozen

4. Displaced( Work/Residence): More than 2 dozen

5. Arrested by State(Long and short term): Around 500

6. Abducted and released by Maoists: Around 2 Dozen

7. Obstruction to the entrance to the event/news place, Maoists: 1 Dozen

8. Obstruction to the entrance to the event/news place, State: on various pretext in various districts

Data: Federation of Nepalese Journalists

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