I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Change imminent?

Kathmandu: The furor created over the Raj Parishad meet last week has made several things clear. The parliamentary political parties were unable to hinder the meet. The parliamentary parties were unable to gauze the constitutionality of the meet. The parliamentary political parties have contributed further to the functioning of the constitution by the student wing of the ruling Deuba party going to the streets against it. To boot, a section of the cabinet who are ex-officio members of the Raj Parishad and have sworn by its membership boycotting a constitutional meet of the Raj Parishad.

This is yet another example of the parliamentary political parties violating the constitution in their oft repeated penchant of opposing the constitutional process by interpreting the constitution to their will.

As much as this state of affairs is now no longer hidden and as much as the Raj Parishad meet can't but touch upon it in their observation of the state of affairs in the country, there are two outstanding factors that the Raj Parishad meet and its reaction has further exposed.

Firstly, although previous such opposition remained covered up by the fact that the partisan media alone had to carry the opposition in public because of the virtual absence of the parliamentary parties outside Kathmandu, the concentration of their workers in Kathmandu could not prevent the meet from taking place.

Equally outstanding fact is that the attempt of the political parties to physically disrupt the inauguration of the central meet of the Parishad by strategically fielding their student cadre in Kathmandu streets between the Royal Palace and the meeting venue in Baneshwar could be dispersed within an hour by a determined security mechanism.

It is perhaps this determination that signals a "major change" in the effort at overcoming the much-recognized obstacles to provide impetus for positive change.

The constitutional crisis that has loomed large over the nation for years now has little solace from the parliamentary parties and the Raj Parishad would be blind if it does not recognize this. Furthermore, the UML ministers who boycotted the meet have hardly helped Raj Parishad cover up this behavioral anomaly in the constitution.

Security wise, the independence of the security action demonstrated in course of the meet can't but be considered significant in attempts to analyze the coming scheme of things.

With the possibility of Kathmandu streets being swept of the presence of the increasingly limited opposition cadre, the effects of such opposition being largely limited to stage-managed political presence in the media are surely significant.

It is not for nothing therefore that the anticipation of a change is high.

Particularly the timing and nature of King Gyanendra's India visit has only but, thus, added to this anticipation. After much seemingly deliberate prompting, the Royal Palace circular announcing a ten-day visit to India which covers critical neighboring states in our SOUTH and WEST is being taken with relief for very obvious reasons.

UML: the great political manipulator

Kathmandu: The UML leader, Madhav Nepal, is not a spent force as some would think of him.

Madhav Nepal has gained experience over the years on how to impose his personal views into the minds of his friends and foes alike inside the party that he heads at the moment.

And in effect this he did at the ongoing Central Committee meeting of the party that began Monday.

Sources close to the UML say that though Madhav Nepal succeeded in his bid to assuage the agitating colleagues demanding the party to quit the government at the earliest by pushing self-framed analyses. His detractors finally had to tone down their verbal attacks on the government as the order came from their own party-boss, Madhav Nepal.

Mr. Nepal's detractors in the party had to gulp the bitter pill provided them by Party's all-powerful General Secretary.

However, what became evident is that Madhav Nepal has now many enemies inside the party who summarily differ with Mr. Nepal's presumptions (an unusual phenomenon in the party of the dogmatic communists) and that the number of his detractors was increasing with each and every mistakes committed either by the government in general or by the ministers from the UML quota in particular.

For the time being, the GS of the party made it abundantly clear that the UML would in no way quit the government come what may.

How the UML leaders differing with Mr. Nepal's views and the party's affiliated organs would take this pill will have to be carefully watched.

However, Mr. Nepal made his own observations in not quitting the government as demanded by some leaders of his own party.

Firstly, Madhav Nepal says that if the UML quits the Deuba establishment, it would enhance "regression". In saying so Madhav Nepal presumes or even concludes that "regression" was still in force and that the UML's being in the government has at best not allowed regression to expand or has restricted regression to a limit. But then the fact is that the UML leader does admit that regression continues to exist immaterial of the UML being in power. Honest assertion indeed.

To recall, the UML while joining the government had reiterated that regression would come to a halt the moment the UML joined the Deuba government.

Yet another point Madhav Nepal reiterated in the CC meet Monday.

He says that since there was no suitable alternative to Deuba government at this critical juncture and thus Deuba's resignation should not be made an issue. Should this mean that Deuba should be allowed to continue for an indefinite period even if he fails in bringing the Maoists to the table and restore peace in the country?

In Madhav's views, perhaps yes! But why he says so?

The UML leader himself provides a clue to his presumption. He says that he has received indications that the King was pressing Deuba hard to resign. In his analysis, if Deuba is told to resign or is sacked as in the past might create a political vacuum that would allow enough space to the King and the latter might rush to fill the vacuum by acquiring a different political posture which in his views would be more dangerous.

Is it this presumed fear that the UML prefers to continue in the government for an indefinite period or possesses a penchant to be in the government for some other political reasons? Or is it a sort of message to Deuba that he needed the UML's support to survive?

Madhav Nepal knows it better.

The third point that the UML leader reiterated Monday at the CC meet was that he was some time back suggested by the Maoists to quit the government and come to the streets. Mr. Nepal says that he declined to comply with the Maoists fervent appeal.

Analyzing all these what comes to the fore is that the UML concludes that regression was still in force and that Deuba's ouster from the government might open the Pandora's box and that he was in close contact with the Maoist leaders. What is also evident from his analysis is that the UML will not quit the government for a variety of reasons. What also could be drawn from Madhav's analysis is that the UML is not that far from the streets where it could join again its old street partners should circumstances force the party.

The essence of the UML leaders' assertion is that till the UML was in the government, Deuba was safe.

Analysts opine that Deuba could be safe with the UML participation in government but that could not be a guarantee for his longevity.

Analysts maintain that politics might take a different turn after King Gyanendra returns from his Delhi trip

How Madhav Nepal will interpret his own structured views in case Deuba is sacked after the Delhi trip?

London-Delhi nexus?

Kathmandu: He visits Nepal every now and then.

Nepalese people listen to the announcements made by Nepali media that Sir Jaffrey James is visiting Nepal to talk to the Nepali political leaders, members of the civil society and a host of others in his bid to find a solution to the Maoists issue.

He comes and leaves. The process has been continuing for years. The issue remains intact.

This time again, the British dignitary came and made courtesy calls on different personalities and at the end of his visit, as usual, made some suggestions to do this and to do that.

Sir Jaffrey James might be honest in his dealings but the fact is that his efforts have so far have not yielded positive results. This he has to admit.

Nevertheless, Sir James made certain observations in front of the Nepali media men Monday that forces analysts to closely look into his suggestions.

Sir James suggested Nepal to go in for the restoration of the now dissolved parliament.

"The country can't continue indefinitely without a functioning parliament" and that restoration of the parliament could be one of the options to end the impasse when the current situation is not favorable to hold free and fair elections to elect a new parliament", is what Sir Jeffrey James said. Interestingly enough, this is what the Indian establishment wishes and in the process has been influencing a section of the Nepali media to pen stories that favor the restoration of the parliament. Is it a mere conjecture?

In addition to this striking similarity in perceptions, what is also apparently clear is that both the countries, read the former colonizer United Kingdom and a former colony India, have been deliberately or otherwise providing shelter to the insurgents in their respective territories.

The third point is that Sir James brushed aside the talk of the possibility of a United Nations mediation in government-Maoists talks by saying that "there were many ways the international community could help Nepal".

Fortunately, Indian establishment too possesses the same line and has in the process hinted Nepal to refrain from inviting the UN at time of the talks.

"They seem to be having a view that if India isn’t involved, other political powers could enter Nepal (to help resolve the conflict)," said Dr. Ram Saran Mahat, a NC stalwart who attended a seminar on Nepal held last week in Delhi. This perhaps explains why India would not wish the UN coming to Nepal and offer its mediation.

Surprising coincidence indeed.

That there is a secret understanding in between the U.K and India vis-à-vis the Maoists becomes clear from the fact that, if one were to recall, Comrade Prachanda had some four years ago visited London to attend an International conference sponsored by RIM.

How could have Prachanda made a secret trip to London without the knowledge of India and United Kingdom. In the same vein what

Simple logic is that Prachanda possesses no Nepali passport. If this were so, how could Prachanda make a trip to London until and unless he was provided a passport by Indian establishment and duly stamped by the British High Commission in Delhi granting him the needed visa to land in London? Or else the Indian and the British authorities should spell out that they were duped and that they did not know of such possibilities! So far neither the British nor the Indians have shed light on these possibilities. Analysts appear not to digest the theory that C. P. Gajurel was apprehended in Madras by the Indian police for having used fake passport to enter into London for the first time? The British have yet to tell the people that the visa thus granted to Gajurel too were fake? The passport was fake or the visa? The answer is still awaited.

The leaders of the insurgency must be admired for their Himalayan courage. They did what appears next to impossible for the common men. Speaks of wider linkages here and there.

Last but not the least, should this mean that both India and Britain by reiterating that parliament should be restored in Nepal were knowingly or unknowingly supporting Nepali Congress President Girija Prasad Koirala's one-point agenda and that being the restoration of the parliament!

Is this again a mere conjecture or some thing else?

What is interesting is that Sir Jeffrey James favored the restoration of the Parliament the day he met President Koirala at his private residence.

Should this mean that President Koirala amply convinced Sir James that the restoration of the parliament could be the best option for Nepal in the given scheme of things and the latter pleasingly made statements favoring Koirala's contentions?

Who knows what is being cooked in Delhi or in London?

However, recent utterances of the leaders of the insurgency reveal that they were not in good terms with the Indian establishment and that they have been preparing themselves to face the possible Indian wrath in case Nepal sought the intervention contain the Maoists threat in the Himalayan Kingdom. The Bunkers and the tunnels are being dug to face any such eventuality, reports reveal.

However, what is for sure is that Koirala is still in the hearts of the Indian leaders.

Be that as it may, let's wait for yet another three months for Sir James arrival in Nepal. That would be his eighth visit to this Himalayan Kingdom.

Constitutional, constructive or active monarchy?

Kathmandu: King Gyanendra is on record to have repeatedly said that he would prefer not to cross the constitutional limits stipulated for him in the 1990 constitution.

He is also on record to have said that his role as a constitutional monarch would be close to a "constructive monarch" implying that he would want some greater role for himself in the constitution.

The international community and the majority of the population including most of the political parties remain assured that the Nepali monarch would confine his roles as per his first reiteration and that he would in no case exceed his constitutional limits.

However, King Gyanendra's preference for a "constructive monarchy" did raise some eyebrows in the political circle to the extent that some major political parties saw in the King's wishes a hidden desire to assert greater roles for himself that was close to active monarchy, which the country had witnessed prior to 1990 change.

It is not yet clear that whether the King wants greater role for himself from within the limits of a constitutional monarchy or would prefer to become a constructive monarch by exceeding his prescribed limits?

The King is silent and hence no guess works.

However, the fresh political overtures of the Raj Parishad are disturbing indeed and have created a sort of panic in the minds of the political circles to the extent that Madhav Nepal said at the UML ongoing CC meet that if his party boycotted its participation from government would strengthen the hands of the King and the latter would get enough space to play his own politics in the country.

This means that the UML suspects that the King would not neglect summarily the recommendations of the Raj Parishad, which implies that the King should be provided more powers than what he has been enjoying at the moment.

Question now arises as to whether the King would go by the recommendations of the Raj Parishad?

Logic demands that prior to going in by the Parishad's recommendations, the constitutional monarch would think twice of the implications of such an endeavor.

Undeniably, the present system did not function well as it should have been due to the sheer mis-handling of the system by the managers of the order now in place. This is true. What is also true is that the vast majority of the population now possesses a sort of allergy towards the political leaders who were at the helm of affairs of the country after 1990 change.

With all these facts remaining intact, what is the guarantee that the King will enjoy perennial support in case he takes over the charge of the country on his own shoulders? What if in such an eventuality the disgruntled political parties now in the streets forge a sort of strategic link with the Maoists against the King's supposed move if by chance it takes place? Can in such a possible event the King be able to steer the country? Will the men advocating for greater role for the king come to the support of the monarch if all the political parties including the Maoists pose a joint challenge to the institution of the monarchy itself? By the same token, will the democratic countries provide their positive consent to the monarch?

The monarch better knows how to proceed in troubled times.

Telegraph weekly /FES seminar on 'Youth, Peace and Media' next week

Kathmandu: The Telegraph Weekly in close cooperation with the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, a German based Foundation, is organizing a national level seminar on "Youth, Peace and Media" next week.

Two Nepali scholars are presenting the working papers during the one-day seminar on 22nd December 2004, afternoon.

The venue of the seminar is Hotel Everest, Baneshwar.

Dr. Krishna Bahadur Bhattachan, a noted Sociologist of international standing who also is associated with the Tribhuban University, Department of Sociology and Anthropology and Mrs. Shanta Pokhrel, a freelance economist with specialization on gender issues, will be respectively presenting their views on the said topic.

Professor Doctor Guna Nidhi Sharma, a highly acclaimed senior economist of the country will be providing key-note address during the inaugural session of the seminar.

The newly accredited French Ambassador to the Nepali court, His Excellency Michel Jolivet, has been requested to make the inaugural address as the chief guest of the seminar. The French dignitary has kindly given his consent in this regard.

Likewise, Dr. Suresh C. Chalise, a Sociologist of international repute will also be ventilating his views on the occasion.

The seminar will have two sessions. Dr. Bhattachan will present his paper in the first session, which will be duly chaired by senior journalist and the chief editor of the Himalayan Times Daily, Ram Pradhan. The second session will see Mrs. Pokhrel presenting her paper which is being chaired by Mrs. Savitri Thapa-Gurung, a political scientist associated with the Tribhuban University.

B'desh observes victory day

Kathmandu: A cultural program was organized by Bangladesh Embassy on December 12 to observe the victory day.

On the occasion, B'desh Ambassador, Humayun Kabir dwelt at length on the importance of the victory day. He also shed light on the present state of Nepal-Bangladesh ties.

En Bref

Half the world’s workers live on less than 2$ a day

Kathmandu: The ILO World Employment Report 2004-2005 made public on last Tuesday states that some 1.4 billion people(1/2 the world workers) are trapped in grinding poverty unable to earn enough to lift themselves and their families above the US$2 a day poverty line.

But this figure could be reduced if policies zero in on improving labour productivity and creating jobs, says a new study by the Geneva-based organisation.

The report shows that the actual percentage of working persons living under both the US$2 a day and US$1 poverty lines is lower today than in 1990, while projected global growth rates may halve US$1 working poverty in some areas of the world by the year 2015.

Drafts of two SAARC treaties finalized

Kathmandu: Government representatives of the seven member regional body, SAARC finalized the drafts of two agreements to be signed in the upcoming summit providing for a regional customs co-operation to check import duty evasion and forgery, and allowing exchange scholars to earn tax-free up to $3,000 a year, reports said.

One of the documents, the draft Multilateral Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement covering 14 areas, was finalised in Islamaba. Similarly, officials belonging to seven South Asian nations gave shape to the Agreement on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Customs Matters simultaneously in New Delhi.

The 13th SAARC Summit due to be held in the Bangaldeshi capital of Dhaka on January 9-11, 2005 is expected to adopt the agreements, which are likely to be put into effect from January 2006, Dhaka-based newspaper, Daily Star, reported last Monday.

Pakistan ready to help Nepal

Kathmandu: Pakistani Ambassador to Nepal H.E Jamir Akram attending a program at Birganj on 11th December said that Pakistan Government is always ready to help Nepal in its fight against terrorism. But, H.E Akram did not specify the kind of support Pakistan is willing to provide in this aspect.

Addressing the program Ambassador Akram also told that the current Maoist problem could only be resolved through talks.

He said further, "Nepal is capable of resolving the problems herself and the Maoists issue is an internal matter of Nepal".

Quotas to women, Dalits and minority groups

Kathmandu: PM Deuba on Sunday while inaugurating the second national convention of Nepal Women’s Association, a sister organisation of Nepali Congress (Democratic), said the government was preparing to allocate quotas to women, Dalits and indigenous communities in the administrative jobs. 

Though he did not give any timeframe and said the ordinance would be introduced soon.

Stressing the need of more women participation in the administrative activists, the Prime Minister said, "Country is unlikely to make any progress by alienating womenfolk from the political and administrative activities." Women must have reasonable say in the national politics and they should also be involved in the peace process, he said.

Book of the week

Title: NEPAL coping with Maoist insurgency Conflict Analysis and Resolution

Author: Chuda Bahadur Shresth
Publisher: Chetana Lokshum
Price: NRs:1199/-; US$: 45/-

Comments: At this juncture of Nepal’s desperate straits, Nepal: coping with Maoist insurgency, perhaps, a most comprehensive and outstanding volume springs forth with a nascent promise amid a large body of writings on Nepal’s Maoist insurgency. Its author, himself a serving senior police officer, Chuda Bahadur Shrestha, had to go through legal ordeals during the course of undertaking research towards his Ph.D. His Majesty’s Government, Ministry of Home Affairs indicted him solely on the grounds of his research theme, i.e. Maoist movement and on account of his being a police officer. In the end, however, the verdict was pronounced in his favor, thus symbolizing the triumph of truth and fair justice. The very doctoral dissertation has seen a new incarnation of its own-this magnificent book.

Nepal: coping with Maoist insurgency offers many new avenues to conflict studies: the book is useful not only for security experts, policy makers and researchers, but also for students and those who have interest in contemporary Nepali society and politics. -D.B.Gurung

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