German Scientist: Tsunami
Warning Possible
Eyewitnesses of the tsunamis that hit South
Asia following Sunday’s underwater earthquake said the wall of water hit without
warning, but a German seismologist said that, in principle, a warning was possible.
The waves that came crashing onto
Asia’s southern shores were tens of meters high. They destroyed houses and hotels,
flooded entire villages, and by latest accounts, swept more than 20,000 people to their
deaths. Thousands more are injured, homeless, or counted as missing.
Eyewitnesses such as Deutsche Welle
correspondent T.S.V. Hari in Madras, India, reported that the tsunamis came out of
nowhere.
"There was absolutely no warning,
it all happened so suddenly," Hari said. "There was just this huge wall of
water. And it was only a matter of minutes before this huge wave reached people
here."
"Cars, people, cattle —
everything in its path was just swept away," he recounted.
The tsunamis were caused by an
underwater earthquake close to the island of Sumatra. The quake measured 9.0 on the
Richter scale — by far, the strongest earthquake to have hit in over 40 years.
What is a tsunami?
Scientists explained that the area just
off Sumatra’s southwest coast is particularly dangerous, as it’s where two
tectonic plates meet, grinding together and sending periodic tremors throughout the
region. With Sunday’s violent rupture, the seafloor was shunted vertically by about
10 meters, generating a massive wave, said Rainer Kind, seismologist at the geological
research center in Potsdam.
"We’re talking about violent
shifts in the sea floor, which of course resulted in the displacement of masses of water.
The wave which formed fanned out in all directions on the open sea. From ships sailing in
the area, the waves are difficult to recognize. But when such a wave hits a coastal area,
it can easily build up into ten-meter high waves, which have devastating
consequences," Kind said.
Warning is possible
Kind acknowledged that the quake itself
would have been impossible to predict, as scientists still know too little about what
happens deep inside the earth’s core. But, he said, an early warning about the
dangerous tsunamis certainly would have been possible.
"Tsunamis are predictable, because
once there’s been a quake, you know that a tsunami could develop. And then you could
predict that after so many hours, the waves would hit, for example, Sri Lanka or India.
These countries could have had the situation better under control. But, as we’ve
heard, the Indian Ocean doesn’t have such an early warning system in place, unlike
the Pacific Ocean."
A warning center such as those used
around the Pacific could have saved most of the thousands of people who died in the
tsunamis in Asia, said Waverly Person of the United States Geological Survey.
"Most of those people could have
been saved if they had had a tsunami warning system in place or tide gauges," he
said.
"I think this will be a lesson to
them," Person said, referring to the governments of the devastated countries.
Once an underwater earthquake hits,
there is usually time — from 20 minutes to two hours — to get people away from
the shores as the tsunami builds in the ocean.
"People along the Japanese coasts, along
the coasts of California — people are taught to move away from the coasts. But a lot
of these people in the area where this occurred — they probably had no kind of
lessons or knowledge of tsunamis because they are so rare," Person said.
More waves to come?
Kind didn’t exclude the
possibility of further after-shocks and more tsunamis in southern Asia.
"Since the main quake, there have
already been several strong after-shocks in the region north and south of the epicentre.
We can’t yet predict when the quakes will be over. There could be a second strong
quake at anytime, which could result in further tsunamis," Kind said.
US seismologists disagreed, saying it
was unlikely the Indian Ocean region would be hit again anytime soon because it takes a
very strong earthquake to trigger a tsunami.
Chronology: The Deadliest Earthquakes Worldwide
Thousands of people died and many more went
missing Sunday after floods unleashed by a massive earthquake off Indonesia. Here a list
of devastating earthquakes worldwide since 1976.
December 26, 2004, Southeast Asia: An
earthquake measuring 8.9 on the Richter scale struck the northern tip of the Sumatra
island in Indonesia triggering massive floods and killing thousands of people in
Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, India and Sri Lanka.
December 26, 2003, Bam, Iran: At least 31,884
people die and 18,000 are injured in an earthquake that flattens the ancient Iranian city
of Bam. The quake registers 6.7 points on the Richter scale.
May 21, 2003, Northern Algeria: Nearly 2,300
dead and 10,000 injured in a 6.8 point quake near the capital Algiers.
March 25, 2002, Northern Afghanistan: Up to
4,800 feared dead in a magnitude 6.0 quake.
January 26, 2001, Gujarat, western India:
More than 20,000 dead and 160,000 injured (magnitude 7.9).
August 17, 1999, Northwestern Turkey: 15,613
dead and nearly 25,000 injured (magnitude 7.4).
May 30, 1998, Northeastern Afghanistan:
Almost 5,000 dead (magnitude 7.1).
February 4, 1998, Northeastern Afghanistan:
Between 2,300 and 4,000 dead (magnitude 6.4).
May 10, 1997, Eastern Iran: 1,613 dead and
3,712 injured (magnitude 7.1).
January 17, 1995, Kobe-Osaka region of
central Japan: 6,400 dead (magnitude 7.2).
September 30, 1993, Maharashtra, western
India: 7,601 dead (magnitude 6.4).
June 21, 1990, Northwestern Iran: More than
40,000 killed in Ghilan and Zandjan provinces (magnitude 7.7).
December 7, 1988, Soviet Armenia: 25,000 dead
(magnitude 7.0).
September 19, 1985, Mexico City, Mexico: At
least 10,000 are killed in the Mexican capital (magnitude 8.1).
July 28, 1976, Tangshan city in Hebei
province, China: 242,000 dead and 164,000 injured (magnitude 7.8)
(Courtesy: Deutschland Magazine,
Embassy of Germany) |
