I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Republic convenient cover all

Kathmandu: Lines are being drawn. The people despite violent hurdles and threats throng to meet the King to seek solace from their mounting woes. The political parties including the Maoists who claim monopoly to the people’s voice are severely threatened.

The solution they seek is in another movement. This time it is for Republic. As party intellectuals have begun their new thought, they claim that a monarchy in Nepal is inimical to a democracy. The monarchy must go and so a republic is the only solution to democracy.

The academics dismiss the spontaneity of public support to King as stage-managed. They dismiss the strength and the determination of the King as one backed by the strength of the army and not by the people. And so a two pronged attack: one on the King and the other on the security sector is already on the cards.

A willing partisan press will now highlight seminars and academic logic justifying the need for a republic in Nepal. A partisan media now will unearth security excesses and seek to destabilize the growing rapport between the affected people and the security forces that contribute now to the flow of intelligence and support which is pushing the insurgency underground compelling it once more to retain its public presence through terror.

Clearly, our supporters of the constitution, its builders and nurturers now conclude along with the Maoists that this multi-party system no longer nourishes their democratic aspirations but instead allows the King to empower himself at the people’s expense.

This will be the continuous message of the agitating parties despite their supposed lip service to the constitution. This has been the message of the Maoist movement and the raison d’être of their armed revolution all along.

There is another message. If the King does not bend to the whims of the political parties, the parties must necessarily collude with the Maoists. Lost in the message is how the republic is a cure-all for the woes of Nepali democracy.

A Presidential or a Prime Ministerial system under a republic must necessarily have a Head of State. If he or she heads a government His or Her excessive authority must be checked by a judiciary and a legislature. If the President is titular, residual constitutional powers are likely for reasons of practical convenience to be bestowed on that institution. The past thirteen years of competitive organizational democracy has demonstrated that our political organizations would rather settle the competition through brute force demonstrated on the streets and not in the legislature, the target being a seat in government’s that conducts elections. The role of the judiciary and even the parliament vis-à-vis government as check and balance thus becomes perfunctory and even residual constitutional authority must bend to the will of political force as our experience shows. King or no King, it is clear that our style of democracy will hardly be a democracy with mere structural changes. This the partisan academics will not accept.

There is politics to be gained to preserve the losses incurred through behavioral faults and so it is convenient to dismiss the politics of the past decade as mistake and dump the problems of democracy on the King.

King in his long march; political parties become restive

Kathmandu: The King is in his long march. He is providing little attention to what is being cooked up against him in Kathmandu by the agitating political parties.

He is being seen by the people. The people are hearing him. This is what he said to Time Magazine and later repeated in Nepalganj speech. The political parties have reasons to be annoyed with King’s fresh overtures. A new political headache for the agitating parties indeed. Neither they can denounce nor appreciate the moves of the King.

The agitating political parties have apparently taken serious note of the King’s ongoing tour to districts and claim that the manner the King is meeting with the people out in the districts does confirm that the monarch will not take a respite until he asserts some crucial powers for himself.

The political conglomerate now against the King vows that they will shatter the very hidden wishes of the monarch and will bring him back to his original role that of a constitutional one. They also claim that if the King denies his prescribed role, the agitation will then center on the demand for a republic.

The politically affiliated students since a month or so have begun favoring a republic.

The Maoist insurgents have reasons to be happy with these sudden developments taking place in the country, which clearly favors their own demand for a republic. This certainly adds up to their strength.

This means that political events that have been unfolding of late, all converge on a common agenda: the republic.

However, the political parties, as a matter of fact, still appear confident that the King will yield to their demands and the ongoing political stalemate come to an end and that sooner or later they would be running the affairs of the State. The assumption is that the King will not yield until he is pressed hard both from the media and the streets. Consensus is among the agitating parties that the King will submit to their demands if they exerted greater pressure on the King seeking, if necessary, even of the support from the Maoist quarters. Their assumption is that if the political parties now in agitation continue to enjoy the support from their own student cadres and which is in turn backed by the Maoists would mean a greater force to which the King can’t afford to dismiss.

However, there is apprehension in certain quarters that if the movement against the King brings in the support of the insurgency and the said agitation is a success, what would be the end result? Will the Maoists settle for less? Will the Maoists allow the agitating parties to rule the roost in such a situation?

Equally true is the assumption that if such a scenario comes into vogue, how the King and the security agencies will take up the ensuing challenge? Will the King finally settle for less? Or will he put the political parties and the Maoists in one basket and proceed in a manner that suits to his political interests at that particular fateful moment?

A frightening imaginary scenario as it is, question could also be asked as to how Nepal’s neighbors would react to Nepali political instability which in one way or the other could destabilize their own security situation. Will such a situation in Nepal be enough to invite foreign intervention? Who knows?

All said and done, the fact is also that the UML, a pillar of the ongoing agitation against the King, still possesses soft corner for the monarchy and admits that the party at least at this stage can’t think of demanding a republic. This means that the UML as a party is in a mood to arrive at a rapprochement with the King supposedly to bounce back to the corridors of power.

What if the UML strikes a secret deal with the monarch? What if Girija is picked up for the executive post?

In both the scenarios, the one which is in power will be taken as a traitor by the rest left in the cold.

However, this is a remote possibility. Neither the King will do so nor the parties will prefer to break their "unity"’.

The King will not do so because he is on record to have appealed the parties to come up with a common agenda so that he can trust them in the task of nation building. The King, hopefully, will keep his promise.

Moreover, the Maoists will definitely feel cheated by the political parties if the latter strikes a deal with the monarch and later form a government that would talk to them. If this happens would mean that the Maoists will have to face a government at the talks which is backed by most of the parliamentary parties. Such a government, if comes into being, will be a united one. Its corollary would be that the government would meet the Maoists with a position of strength.

The Maoists would perhaps wish that there continued a perennial rift in between the political parties and the King so that they can enjoy political benefits by default.

While the parties in Kathmandu are busy in charting plans on how to bend the monarch, the latter is busy in listening to the grievances of the people in the districts.

Like it or not, the King is meeting the people-a people whom their own voters have not met since years and years.

Matured analysts suggest the King to act fast in favor of the people or else visits of such sorts in the past have not yielded, if one were to recall.

Differences persist among the agitating partners

Kathmandu: The nation continues to be in a state of political/constitutional stagnation.

The government led by Thapa is a mess for it is facing challenge to its existence from a party that elevated him to power. The fact is that the party is already on the verge of collapse.

On another plane, the UML top-hats differ on how to take the recent actions initiated by the monarchy. The majority in the party sees the King becoming active in his dealings with the affairs of the state. Others have taken it as a normal course of action and hence prefer not to denounce the King and his fresh, as some prefer to call "assertive" overtures.

Moreover, the party’s high command still believes that the King one fine morning may invite its leaders and forge a sort of consensus in the formation of a government that is also appreciated by Girija Prasad Koirala. It is this belief that has restricted Madhav Nepal in going berserk against the monarchy.

The monarchy could have hinted so to the UML or the UML is led to believe that the party enjoys the secret favour of the monarchy.

The monarchy is silent, which is what has been confusing not only the UML but also others as well including the Congress, and other smaller parties now housed in the coalition against what they prefer to call "regression".

Koirala is the one who is clear about the monarchy. It is Koirala and none other than Koirala who has time and again made it clear that the constitutional monarchy is crossing the limits prescribed to it by the constitution and that the King wishes an assertive role for himself.

The King denies Koirala’s allegations and repeatedly assures the countrymen that he would not go the Koirala way but instead prefer a role that is a "constructive" one.

The political parties, including the Maoists presume that a King can’t be a constructive one unless he becomes an "active" monarch.

In the process, the people are simply thrown into confusion because of varied interpretations provided by the King, Koirala and other mini-political animals.

The ground reality is that each and every one currently in the political tussle with each other is losing credibility in the eyes of the bewildered people.

For example, the congress is being seen by the people as a party that ruined the nation to a greater extent for a greater portion of the democratic years the party was in power. The people, furthermore, conclude, as a matter of past experience, that it is Koirala and Koirala alone who has contributed a lot in bringing in this chaotic scenario in the country to which the King, by default, manipulated. Koirala’s arrogance, adamance and his, above all, inimical stance taken against any one who opposed his Hitlerite decisions, were the sole reasons that caused this mishap in the country.

Koirala remains undeterred.

Add to this his "ego" to bend the King is also one factor that has compounded the problem further.

The UML as communist outfit is no less a power hungry lot. Indeed, its lust for power is lesser that the Koirala’s congress.

The UML is also a divided lot and hence has so many issues to be sorted out prior to venturing to aspire for the executive posts.

The UML is with the King. The UML is not with the King. It is this dubious stance that has weakened the party from within. Add to this, the party has a tendency now to eliminate any one who opposes Madhav Nepal. For example, R.K.Mainali whose contributions to the party is no less than Mr. Nepal’s itself, has been sacked for his implied support to the monarch’s moves.

The smaller parties, for instance, the NMKP and the NSP, were at best local or regional parties whose sphere of influence remains limited in certain specified areas. It is this fact that forces them all to toe the lines of those who mean much in Nepali politics. In other words, the NMKP and the NSP were no more than a political tool and tail of the comparatively bigger parties. They are with the bigger parties hoping for a seat or two in the next government, if at all it is formed prior to the elections.

However, the smaller parties at times pose that they were some things to be reckoned with. The fact is that the complex of being small forces them to cry louder.

All put together, the parties, though housed in one camp, differ on so many counts which is being exploited by the powers-that-be in today’s Nepal.

Good news for Deuba indeed.

The coalition has decided that they could include Deuba’s party in the coalition against regression.

Though outwardly, all conclude that the King has exceeded his constitutional limits. Equally true is that each and every party is aspiring for posts in a government that will conduct elections.

The fact is that they all wish to be in a government so that they can influence elections. Why to risk parliamentary seats if their representation is not in the government?

Million dollar question is: will Thapa resign voluntarily in order to allow his rivals in the congress and communist parties to bounce back to power?

If Thapa is the one whom the analysts know better, it would only be a miracle that would throw Thapa out from Singh Durbar.

Maoists words and deeds differ

Kathmandu: It seems that Maoists of late are loosing grounds.

If on the one hand, they have quite often reiterated that they would not destroy any development infrasctures and that they will not involve themselves in ransom killings, on the other, the brutal killing, for example, of Mr. Ganesh Dutta Chilwal, supposedly the chief of the Maoists affected people’s forum, the only other day has forced the people to conclude that the insurgents have not yet renounced their violent activities.

Analysts say that it was a blunder on the part of the Maoists to kill Mr. Chilwal when they themselves were seeking UN meditation to resolve the crisis.

It appears that their fresh violent action only aggravated the international community to the extent that they now doubt Maoists’ declared claim for such an internationally recognized body’s meditation.

It would have been in their benefit, political observers opine, to have refrained from such activities when they had been searching for a meaningful dialogue through the kind courtesy of the United Nations system.

Seeking UN mediation and concurrently resorting to violence as usual has raised so many eye brows within and without to the extent that the UN representative in Nepal told that the killing of Chilwal has made the UN system "grave and serious".

Add to this, the pouring in of words of condemnations from various countries including those who were attached with the preservation of Human Rights does indicate that the Maoists have lost an opportunity to present themselves as a peace-seeking entity.

Nepal’s major political forces too have come down heavily against Mr. Chilwal’s killing.

Political parties and student are also being seen burning the effigy of the Monarch as a symbol of regression. It does not then mean that the Monarch should act in the same manner as they retaliated freshly. The Maoist should learn to tolerate their opposition and not retaliate in such a manner that only isolates them with the political parties with whom they wish to form an alliance against the King in their bid to accomplish the goals they have charted for the country.

Telegraph adds: A Maoist press note says that they killed one "vigilante", Ganesh Dutta Chilwal, who was acting on behalf of the establishment and had been defaming the insurgency’s credibility and popularity.

The press note also says that the killing of Mr. Chilwal was an act endorsed by their high command.

Amatya pleads penal actions

Kathmandu: The Patan Appellate Court has issued a show-cause notice to the Nepal Bank Limited currently run under the Irish management.

The Appellate court served the notice to the Bank when the court was approached by Piyush Bahadur Amatya, the Chairman of the Pokhara based Fulbari Resorts and Spa, who had appealed that the said Bank had gone contra to the court’s earlier instructions and been neglecting and even humiliating the court’s orders.

A press release issued by Mr. Amatya even states that the Irish management of the Bank has gone to the extent in having said that the Patan court exhibited its favor to Mr. Amatya some time back under the influence of some financial gains.

This allegation, says Mr. Amatya, is an effort to defame the Nepali court and hence the men handling the affairs of the Nepal Bank be brought to book at the earliest.

Thapa favors collective action against terrorism

Kathmandu: The Nepal Council of World Affairs, NCWA, mareked its 57th Anniversary here in the capital Tuesday afternoon.

Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa, speaking on the occasion on the topic of Nepalese’s Foreign Policy outlined various achievements Nepal has bagged during the freshly concluded 12th SAARC summit held in Islamabad.

He also said that "Terrorism has been a serious challenge to national and international peace and security".

" Only common resolve and collaborative actions can effectively deal with the menace of global terrorism", Thapa added.

Nepal to benefit from WTO

At a separate program organized by the NCWA the same day on "Benefits of WTO", the visiting US Assistant trade representative Mr. Ashley Wills, told the gathering that least developed countries like Nepal will immensely benefit from their entrance into the WTO scheme.

"Nepal could draw lot of benefits because of its geographical position that allows her to share her markets with the world’s two fastest growing economies, India and China.

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