I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
What’s cooking in the Southernly kitchen?

-Yuba Raj Koirala

Kathmandu: Fear and speculations are on high on the Nepali agenda following the series of visits being paid by high-placed officials of the Indian establishment.

 People suspect that an ugly sort of design is being charted some where outside the Nepali territory to make Nepal to yield to some one’s dictates.

The manner Indian authorities are interested in visiting Nepal time and again does indicate that sooner or later this Himalayan Kingdom will have to pay a very heavy price.

Our roads are being constructed by neighboring India. But at what price, we don’t know. India is harnessing our rivers for mutual benefits. However, such mutual benefits have remained only in paper works. Nepali people don’t know which of the river-systems we have already agreed to handover to India at what price and for what benefits?

We have allowed them to unilaterally construct dams on the border-points that have submerged several of our villages and yet we greet them smilingly as and when they come to see us.

An hurriedly sell out of our national interests by a sort of “non-representative” government at a time when the parliament is absent will only result in inviting many ills that the nation will later find it very difficult to accommodate with our national goals and aspirations that are yet to be defined by Nepalese people.  The proposed bus links to India will not necessarily facilitate the cross border travelling activities as we are being made to believe but instead, it will open the Pandora’s box which will contaminate our already fragile society. The unrestricted flow of unwanted elements will no doubt contribute towards creating confusion in our society thus making it more complicated to comprehend. It will in time also erode much of our communal ties and harmony.

The hypocrisy shown by the visiting foreign secretary of India Shashank on the Bhutanese refugees issue that it was a “bilateral matter” between Bhutan and Nepal which required no other third party meditation is nothing more than they are now throwing yet another card to press Nepal hard on the issue thereby compelling us open up other opportunities which could be of interest to them.

Million dollar question thus being asked is why at this particular juncture, when Nepal is suffering from chronic domestic problems that the Indian establishment comes here with all smiling and signing faces and offer to help Nepal in her development work as if she genuinely wishes to see Nepal prosper.

Who else better knows other than India on how to twist Nepali arms at times of her deep crisis? She knows on how to fish in Nepal’s troubled waters.

To recall, the early 1990s saw Indian establishment squeezing Nepali arms and when Nepal rejected to be under Indian umbrella scheme, the other side supported the champions of the then movement which cut the size of the monarch. This time again, the country is in crisis; the political parties have come to the streets against the King and here is India again to extract benefits. Thanks the kind courtesy of Prime Minister Thapa that Nepal is all prepared to yield to the terms of the Indian establishment.

The fact is that India knows the iron is hot enough now to strike a blow so they can shape this nation in whatever way they wish. Yes, we too know and we always knew for good reasons that India will always come to rescue us at times like this, provided that we are ready to submit to their demands until one day when we get up to realize that our clocks have already moved 15 minutes behind.

Article 127 to remain until a new parliament is in existence?

Kathmandu: King Gyanendra has returned to the Capital in a pleasing mood.

The monarch’s beaming face does indicate that he has accomplished what he said to the Time magazine and made a statement in Nepalganj while receiving civic felicitation despite the fact that his political detractors in the political parties did not liked the manner the monarch presented himself in the villages and districts.

The one political personality who has expressed his greatest reservations regarding King’s western region tour is Koirala. Koirala, for example, has gone to the extent that he sees a grand design in what the King has accomplished this time around in the far western region.

In Koirala’s opinion, the King should not have done what he did this time in the remote villages and districts. In doing so, the King, according to Koirala’s conclusion, has not only exceeded his constitutional limits but has also hinted that he would not remain in the boundaries allowed to him by the 1990 constitution. It is Koirala who sums up the King’s trip to western region as to have been a design of the King to play an active role.

In the process, a disheartened Koirala, is blowing hot and cold these days against the monarch.

For example, he blows cold when he says that his struggle is not with the monarchy as such but with a monarch who apparently exhibiting a lust to rule the nation by becoming active.

At yet another plane, he blows hot when he warns the King by saying that if the latter did not yield to the prescriptions offered to him by the agitating political parties, the nation might go in for a republican order.

In the process, he commits a blunder. For example, he is in favor of the institution of the monarchy, is what he admits. According to his own admission, he is in favor of the one who denotes the monarchy that is King Gyanendra. Plainly speaking, it is King Gyanendra who represents the institution whom Koirala respects and by the same token what is also clear is that the institution is an institution because King Gyanendra is there at the moment.

Be that as it may, a clever Madhav Nepal is on a trip to some European and Nordic countries wherein he is supposed to learn on how to manage the Nepali problems including those of the Maoists.

Madhav Nepal, a frustrated lot at best, too became pretty angry with the King recently and bluntly challenged the monarch that if the latter wished to play politics to come to the field by abandoning the throne.

It is to be noted that Mr. Nepal had so far acquired a somewhat restrained approach vis-à-vis the King’s regional tour and the latter’s speeches made out in Nepalganj. However, this time, prior to his European tour, he has openly challenged the King in a more blatant manner.

The King has yet to react to Madhav’s fiery speeches made against him. Nevertheles, a section of the Nepali intellectuals take Madhav’s fiery speeches against the King as to have been aired simply for the public consumption. For, Madhav Nepal understands it better, opine intellectuals, that it is by and large the King who can elevate his ranks to the post he is dying for. To recall, it was Madhav Nepal’s predecessor, Madan Bhandari, who too had challenged the authority of the then King Birendra. Late Bhandari, however, was all praise for the King when the latter granted audience to th former at the Palace. Late Bhandari also made it clear that the King that is the institution of the monarchy did constitute a force to be reckoned with by all the existing forces. In effect, it is from this time that the monarchy is being taken as a strong force which could not be dismissed altogether.

After a lapse of several years, a sort of similar challenging tone has been aired by UML supremo against the monarch.

Summing it up, Koirala is on an offensive. Madhav Nepal too poses that he is not happy with the monarch recent activities. The smaller parties have been toeing Madhav’s and Koirala’s line without knowing where they will land ultimately if the King did not heed to their threat-loaded pleas.

The King remains undeterred and has visibly indicated that he will continue to remain almost active of the kind he exhibited to the national population more so to the agitating political parties at least till he summons a new parliament after the convening of the elections.

Whether the elections could be held or not at this troubled juncture is a matter under serious debate. However, what is for sure is that neither the King nor his appointed Thapa government would oblige the agitating political parties by yielding to their prescriptions. This means that the highly controversial Article 127 will continue to haunt the brains of Koirala and Madhav Nepal for some more time. A long wait indeed.

If this is so then what is also clear is that the King’s and the government’s adamancy will invite a sort of wrath of greater dimension that will apparently further crystallize the already fragile national politics.

It would be this crystallization of the politics that would bring the King and his government closer to confrontation with the agitating political parties that might facilitate a solution to the present impasse.

Nevertheless, it would be highly premature at this juncture to predict as to which force will prevail on the other when the two opposing forces meet each other in the streets.

The fact is that this time India would not come to the rescue of the agitating political parties simply because Thapa has been very kind enough to look into the sensitivities of India. Had it been not so, India would have rushed to support the agitating parties and later to gain from them.

Peace is what stands high on today’s agenda

by Niraj Aryal, Kathmandu On Royal visit

Kathmandu: The Royal visit to the far-western region has concluded.

Reactions of the political parties as speculated is negative. The people’s hope to see the political parties and the King coming together to solve the ongoing  crisis seems even more distanced.

What for the Royal visit to the poverty stricken region is becoming even more confusing? Some people infer Girija’s provoking gestures against the king might have triggered the visit.  But the role of the king seemingly as an active monarch in the 21st century has become the subject for heated discussion among the intellectuals.

Girija Prasad Koirala who is as usual at the centre of the Nepali politics sees it as a conspiratorial move. But on the other hand, Madhav Kumar Nepal, the General Secretary of the CPN-UML is still blowing cold in the issue. Mr. Nepal might still be expecting for his appointment as the Prime Minister of the nation. Will his appointment as the Prime Minister will be the solution to the problems is left among the intellectuals to discuss?

Coming back again to the King’s visit, what made this move a subject for vigorous discussion is a tricky one. Political parties now have become more restive as they fear of loosing their followers even in the remote villages.

The allegation that the King moved to the Maoists affected region well protected by scores of RNA men does not hold water as the political parties could also ask for the same treatment from the army and could visit those areas on their own. However, the fact is that the leaders of the political parties prefer to be in Kathmandu for fear of risking their precious lives.

They will not like to visit the districts and villages for their own explicit reasons. They would not digest the King’s trip to those areas for fear of losing their grips over their own voters.

What all these mean? Will the Maoists issue come to a solution if both the political forces confront in a manner that they have been doing now?

Narayan Singh Pun

Fortunately enough, former minister Narayan Singh Pun, who brokered the previous peace talks, is again ready to move forward if given an authority to do so. What is stopping him to do it again? Is it the government or the king who has to act at this moment fast? Otherwise, we might miss one more opportunity for peace-talks, if Mr. Pun were to be believed.

Whether the King’s visit was a success or a failure? Interpretations could differ. However, the fact is that peace is what stands high on agenda in the minds of the people in the Western region and elsewhere as well and hence peace-process must start whether by soliciting the good offices of Narayan Singh Pun or the monarch himself takes the needed initiatives.

Can talk of UN mediation and kidnappings go together?

Kathmandu: The Maoists appear to have acquired two-pronged policy of late.

This they have done so mainly after two of their hard-core polit bureau members were handed over by the Indian authorities to Nepal which is talked to have weakened the insurgency from within.

High placed sources in the capital also suspect the Indian design, which might come heavily down against the insurgency, should Nepal yielded to their “genuine” security interests.

Unconfirmed reports have it that the Indian foreign secretary is returning home “pleased” which means that the days ahead for the insurgent leaders in India would be a hard nut to crack with now.

Jokes are in Kathmandu that says that India handed over two hard-core Maoist leaders when Nepal agreed to buy two choppers at a price stated by India and could even deport the top-hats of the insurgency should Nepal accepted the terms and conditions of India on a variety of known and unknown issues including water resources, trade, and commerce and a host of others.

Be that as it may, the rebels of late appear to signal that they were all prepared to come to the negotiating table provided the UN System mediated the talks. On the other, the insurgency is forcibly kidnapping hundreds and hundreds of school children and teachers apparently presumably to train them all as their primary army inorder to face the challenges posed to their insurgency by the RNA.

The fact is that the talks of UN mediation on the one hand and kidnappings of innocent school children on the other does hint that the insurgents wish to go in for a major offensive against the establishment’s security some time in the near future. The abduction of the children by the rebels could have been inspired by the logic that they could be used as human shields as and when the RNA comes face to face with their own militia.

Clearly, the RNA would think twice prior to attacking the other camp for fear of the innocent school children being killed for a fault which is not their own making.

The Maoist rebels are clever but the trick they have acquired for gaining a superiority over their enemies at time of the battle seems some what contrary to the rules that are usually taken for granted at times of war.

Be that as it may, analysts also disagree with the government’s claims that the Maoist insurgency were now an already weakened force which could further be weakened is a misnomer.

Albeit, no major offensive have come against the RNA in the recent days and weeks from the other camp, but to conclude that they were already a spent force would be an act to console oneself in a dark room.

It is time that the Maoists spell out their real intention. Whether they are serious on UN mediation or had other options in mind, they must clarify at the earliest.

The population would wish the Maoists coming to the table. Nepal as a nation-state can’t afford to see the dead bodies on either side, as both were the sons of the same soil.

Bereuter new TAF President

Kathmandu: Amidst increasingly complex security, economic, and political challenges in Asia, The Asia Foundation, February 10, announced the appointment of U.S. Representative Doug Bereuter, a 25-year veteran of Congress, as its new President.

Bereuter, however, will join the new post on September 1, 2004.

“In my 20-plus years of working to improve U.S.-Asia relations, it has been abundantly clear that prosperity, freedom and opportunity in Asia must grow and develop from within the region, in the hearts and minds of the region’s people, and at their own initiative”, said Bereuter.

I am proud to be joining an organization that not only understands this principle, but has been practicing it with great success for 50 years, added the TAF new president-designate.

Congressman Bereuter is a long time leader on the House International Relations Committee, who is highly regarded in Asia and in the U.S. international relations community.

“Doug bereuter brings precisely the right mix of qualifications: seasoned judgement, policy expertise, management acumen and well-developed rapport with key Asian and U.S. leaders that is required in today’s environment for The Asia Foundation to succeed”, said William L. Ball, III, chairman of The Asia Foundation’s Board of Trustees.

Last year, The Asia Foundation is learnt to have awarded more than $44 million in grants throughout Asia and provided books and educational materials valued at almost $28 million.

Mr. Doug Bereuter will succeed current TAF President William P.Fuller, who last year announced he would step down in 2004.

TAF is a non-profit, non-governmental organization committed to the development of a peaceful, prosperous and open Asia-Pacific region.

This is stated in a news release issued recently by the Nepal office of The Asia Foundation.

Editor Thapa hospitalized

Kathmandu: The Editor of the vernacular HINDU Weekly, Mr. Paban Thapa “Kuntal” met with an accident last week.

He was in his motor-bike and was returning to his home around 9 PM in the evening when this mishap occurred.

Mr. Thapa was rushed to the B&B Hospital by his intimate colleagues and reports have it that he is still lying unconscious. However, Doctors attending on him say that he is slowly recovering for the better.

A section of the Nepali media suspect the hands of some unscrupulous elements who could have hit Thapa’s motor-bike deliberately.

Several media organizations have appealed the establishment to initiate a probe into the causes of the accident and make it public at the earliest.

We in the Telegraph weekly pray for Thapa’s early recovery and also appeal the government to extend financial support for the treatment of Mr. Thapa.

Thapa is is senior journalist of the country.

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