I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Madhav can’t head government

Kathmandu: The UML and its roadmap remains in focus this week too. The party’s compulsions are many. Its grassroots is being swept away by the Maoists. Of the past thirteen years of democracy, it has been able to nurture its organization from government in the nine months it held sway under the Man Mohan Adhikary ministry. What ever it gained as junior party in government was lost in the Bam Dev Gautam split and the last general elections the CPN-UML had partnered the RPP and Girija Koirala's electoral coalition government.

To boot, the party is loosing heavily under the current government what with Surya Bahadur Thapa’s undisclosed alliance with the Girija-Congress. The period since Thapa has come to power has allowed the Girija-Congress to galvanize its cadre on the streets in preparation of elections which Koirala has publicly declared he will face. The UML remains walking a tightrope juggling between the three contradictory public moods which demand constitutionalism, monarchy and republicanism.

In the process, the UML continues to lose. Its flirtation with the Maoists prevents it from admitting that a much stronger agenda than its roadmap is essential to compel the Maoists to come to the negotiating table. It needs the volatility of the continuing street agitation to press its demands to lead the government and it can’t distance itself from the congress which thrills over the possibility of retaining a radical stand at the UML’s expense.

The UML must clearly budge somewhere. The monarchy insists that an all-party option face the Maoists in restoring constitutionalism. The congress ensures that an all-party stance will not emanate from the UML’s alliance with the congress on the streets. The Maoists gleefully provoke radicalism to retain the UML’s grassroots ideologically. And, the Thapa government ensures that the UML keeps loosing at the current level and more if and when elections take place.

It is not without meaning therefore that the Thapa coterie confidently attracts cadre predicting that the government will not be dissolved, will hold elections and will emerge stronger. By doing so, it is rendering precarious the overwhelming RPP majority over which it never held sway. At the same time, it is threatening to isolate the UML leadership exposing its government ambitions before the lay public and its ideological prevarication before the cadre.. Simultaneously, it is rendering precarious the congress-Deuba ambitions nurturing the Girija-Congress organization while at the same time it is rendering the Congress-Koirala organization more dependent on itself. Surya Bahadur Thapa has it made at the moment.

Unless, that is, something budges somewhere. Until then, this is clearly at the expense of the King’s initiative of October 4th. While Thapa has it made, continuing street agitation and the inadequate popular and organized response to ensure the retention of public support for the King divert the people towards the options being given. A more feasible answer at the King’s behest would have to be the leadership of the UML in the creation of an all-party government for which perhaps it will have to forsake the leadership of the government itself. For this, Madhav Nepal’s Prime Ministerial ambition remains the fundamental stumble block.

Koirala finds himself comfortable with rebels politically

Kathmandu: The political parties continue to be in the agitation.

Their students’ cadre have come to their rescue and been chanting slogans against the monarch and also demanding a republican state for this kingdom. The agitating political parties have told the public that they shoulder the responsibility for their students’ chanting slogans against monarchy and favoring republicanism.

The Maoists have reasons to celebrate the events that are rocking Kathmandu and main towns of Nepal wherein the political-students have started talking and demanding on their standard lines-that of republicanism.

It is not surprising therefore that the maoists top-hats, Prachanda and Babu Ram eulogize NC president Koirala who virtually has taken up the original demands of the Maoists. No surprise therefore that the Maoists should praise Koirala for his taking up their original issue.

The UML as a party which had pushed its nine point roadmap for the consumption of the political parties now in agitation and for the lay men as well appears to have got confused on how to advocate its own roadmap for it is its own coalition partners that have expressed their reservations about the so-called UML roadmap.

The now confused UML which had hoped that the roadmap would one fine morning elevate its ranks got a political jerk when the Maoists too stated that the UML map was inadequate and that it was a vague sketch leading to nowhere. Add to this the UML’s partners also suspecting the UML move and dubbing it as a cheat to the faith of the joint proclaimed unity of the pro-parliamentary forces up against regression.

The King remains undeterred even if he is being pressed hard for effecting a change. Frankly speaking, the monarch has become even more assertive and appears to care little of the political parties’ street demonstrations and slogans aimed against at him. The King says that the slogans of republicanism by the political students is only a pressure tactics acquired by the political parties so that he yields to their demands.

This means that the King is all set to face the challenges posed to him and his institution come what may.

If further analysed what comes to the fore is that unless a miracle saved this country from going to the dogs, the three contending political forces, the Maoists, the parliamentary parties and the Nepali monarchy will contribute to the escalation of the scheme of things in the country even further.

Koirala will not settle for less than the restoration of the parliament. Madhav Nepal with his roadmap has already become too weak to defend his formulae and hence any thing substantial coming out from the UML or from its leader appears remote. The King clearly hints that he will not remain a mere spectator to the obtaining political situation in the country. The Maoists are reaping political benefits from the tussle in between the parliamentary parties and the monarch and this is what they have been longing for.

What is dangerous in these sad developments is that a sort of political polarization seems to be in the offing. The new polarization brings the political parties currently in agitation closer with the Maoists and the King is in effect constitutes the other pole.

This means that if the King does not act as per the wishes of the political parties, the latter could initiate broader contacts with the rebels in order to challenge even the personality of the King and his institution of the monarchy.

The fact is that though the majority of the NC leaders still subscribe to the continuation of a constitutional monarchical system in the country, it is Koirala’s arrogance and nothing but arrogance that he wishes to press the King to yield to his political dictates. Politely speaking, the present tussle in between the King and Koirala appears as if it were a sort of personality in between the two.

Analysts hope it were not that.

Matured analysts in the capital district say that Koirala’s energy has been doubled by what Maoists leaders like Dr. Bhattarai openly and very pleasingly lauded the role of Koirala in the recent days and weeks and hence what could now be safely said of Koirala is that he would increase his pitch against the Nepali monarchy until the latter yields.

It is interesting to note the Maoist rebels admiring the role of Koirala. To recall, it was Koirala who preferred to crush the rebels at time when he was the nation’s prime minister. No less interesting is the fact that the rebels killed most from the congress camp.

But then what makes the two to come closer?

Analysts conclude that the new found love for each other is the slogans against the monarchy. Should this mean that the day the King acts as per the suggestions of Koirala, he will keep a distance from the Maoists? Its corollary would be that if the King and Koirala join hands at some point of time, the Maoists will be left in the cold?

Poor Madhav Nepal. Neither he could succeed in bagging support for his map from the NC, the Maoists and the Palace as well.

One would wish to know the present status of the roadmap which had come with a big-bang only a fortnight back. Should this also mean that Madhav Nepal is not a consensus candidate?

The fact is that the coalition partners against regression stand divided though they claim the otherwise. A shocked Mr. Nepal has also reasons to differ with his partner’s opinions much the same way as his friends differed with him and his roadmap.

It is time, analysts say, the UML to provide further clarifications regarding the roadmap so that the nation debated its pros and cons.

Nepal not to become a failed State

-King Gyanendra

Kathmandu: The King speaks his mind.

The King has done so through an interview with the Time Magazine recently which apparently does hint that King Gyanendra as the custodian of the constitution would not settle for less than teaching a lesson to the erring political actors of the present day Nepal.

"The King of Nepal was interviewed by Alex Perry, South Asia Bureau Chief of TIME Magazine"

The King in the course of the interview implies that it is not the system as such which has failed in this country but instead it were the political actors who contributed to the failure of the system.

"Much of the ill we have suffered is not because of the democratic political system, it’s because of the actors in the system".

This does hint that the King remains sure that whatever political aberrations have cropped up in the system of late and the feeling that the system itself has failed in the country were all the creation of the actors who took the control of the system beginning early 1990s.

On yet another front, the King dismisses that he was an autocrat as some would say.

"If some people don’t understand me, if there is mistrust and a crisis of confidence, let’s do something about it", is what King responds.

In other words, the King implies to say that at best the people and the actors of today’s Nepali politics have misunderstood him. In the same vein, he however, invites the actors to come closer and do away with the misunderstanding regarding him. This means that the King is open to talk on those lines with any one whosoever alleges him to be an autocrat.

Similarly, the King once again lambastes at the political parties and says that the political leadership of Nepal should abandon thinking of their own personality but instead think of the people and the nation.

"I wish the political leadership speak more often about the people, not of their own betterment", is what expects the King from political actors.

The King sumarrily rejects the theory of the political parties that a constitutional monarch should remain in political confinement. Instead, the King, would wish to expose himself to his people who would like to listen to him.

" The people of Nepal want to see their King, they want to hear from him", is what King Gyanendra says in the interview.

This clearly means that the King will not only visit districts and meet the people but would also talk to them as and when he so desires.

King Gyanendra’s assertion has come at a time when his impending public felicitations in Nepalganj are shortly due this month.

On another plain, the King is all in favor of defending the Nepali army. He says that barring some "accidental" accidents, the Nepali army could not be alleged to have committed human rights abuses.

"’And which country does not have friendly fire? Which does not have accidents?, this is how the King who is also the Supreme Commander of the Army defends the security agency.

The King disagrees to the theory that Nepal is on the verge of being dubbed as a failed state. He firmly believes that "it’s not happening that way as is being taken by some. Elaborating further, the King does admit that there is a political vacuum indeed in the country.

Talking on the rise of the Maoists insurgency, the King yet again wraps the political parties and says that "previous governments did not have the foresight to address poverty or they addressed it in such an inhuman way that those areas developed into hot spots we have today.

In saying so the King does accept that the insurgency could have been come up because of poverty and that should the governments of the past tackled the issue in a humanely manner, the insurgency would not have developed in a dimension what it is today.

Here again the King says that the governments that came after 1990 lacked the needed foresight.

In the end of the interview, the King, nevertheless, admits that "he should not have any active responsibilities in government which means that he will not cross the limits of a constitutional monarch but would simultaneously remain a constructive monarch come what may.

"The future of Nepal, yes! Lies in constitutional monarchy and multi-party democracy", the King repeats his commitments for a democratic system in the country.

How the political parties react to King’s interview will have to be watched.

Mahara and Dr. Bhattarai differ on constitutional monarchy

Kathmandu: If the Maoists’ statements made in the recent days were any clue then what is for sure is that they will come heavily down against what they call the "old regime" in the near future.

The idea is to terrorize the government and its security agencies by attacking several towns in the country at a time.

The national security agency too appears to have taken note of such possible attacks and is on record to have said that necessary arrangements were being done to face the challenges thus to be posed to it by the rebels.

Two things become clear from their statements and lectures.

Firstly, the rebels would wish to declare the areas and territories under their control as autonomous regions wherein they will have installed their own sort of people’s government. This is what they did only last week in remote western region.

They have similar plans in the future.

Secondly, they wish to puzzle the security agencies through their possible attacks in various towns in the country. This they were doing apparently to weaken the security agencies for if several town were attacked at a time, the unified command will have little force or even no force to provide security to the population. The idea could be to drive away the presence of the security forces from areas wherein they wish to declare their own "new state".

But then yet, the rebels have not completely abandoned the idea of a talk with the government. They wish the talks but with concrete agenda. No agenda, no talks, is what they say.

However, analysts also see that the rebels differ on so many counts with their own compatriots.

For example, Mr. Mahara last week told that his party would accept a constitutional monarchy provided the King abandoned the title of Supreme Commander of the Army and that he, the monarch, sacked some two-hundred plus army men.

Hardly had the Mahara message regarding the party’s new considerations about the monarchy had come into the open, yet another top-hat of the insurgency, Dr. Bhattarai, summarily rejected Mahara’s new consideration.

"Yes! That was our earlier consideration which does not exist at the moment", is what Dr. Bhattarai said recently.

Should this mean that Mahara and Dr. Bhattarai differ on the matters pertaining to the King?

Similarly, Kiran Vaidya of the insurgency is talked to be of the view that the insurgency should continue its fight with the old regime at any cost. On the contrary, the commander of the people’s army, Mr. Ram Bahadur Thapa alias Badal rejects Vaidya’s theory but instead reiterates that time had not come to go in for a major offensive action against the establishment.

Should this mean that to attack or not to attack too has become a matter of serious debate in the Maoists paraphernalia?

The State army, in the meanwhile, is cheering its victories against the Maoists and is apparently concluding that the other camp has already become a spent force.

However, analysts opine that it would be suicidal to thing on those lines.

Definitely, the rebels have had to retreat at some places should not mean that the insurgency has become too weak.

This could be their newly devised and acquired strategy to deal with the state security agencies.

Responsible political analysts do claim that Nepal was in a battle wherein there was no enemy as such to fight with.

All that it was a battle being fought by a Nepali with another Nepali", conclude matured analysts.

Question automatically then arises: Can Nepal afford such a fight for long?

At the time of writing this piece, the Maoists demand for a constituent assembly remains intact.

Peace and Development in Nepal affects India: Saran

Kathmandu: Speaking at a program organized by Nepal-India Friendship Association on the occasion of the 55th Republic day of India, Ambassador to Nepal Mr. Shyam Saran said that Nepal has been the "best" neighbor to India since times immemorial.

He said Nepal could immensely benefit from the economic progress achieved by India in the recent past, as Nepal is our closest neighbor. And said the opposite also holds true as peace and development in Nepal also affects India.

Indian envoy disclosed that India has accepted the proposal made by the Nepalese Government to construct 1,000 Kms. of road along the Terai region of Nepal.

He also said that in the near future all the four checkpoints in the Nepal-India border would be updated as the people now are facing unnecessary problems due to the lack of good infrastructure. He said this would also help to check cross border terrorism.

He also said that Indian government is willing to link Nepalese cities with the broad gaze railway lines existing in India, which, according to Ambassador Saran, will further enhance the economic ties between the two countries.

The Indian Ambassador however, did not utter even a single word about Maoist insurgency in Nepal. Nevertheless, his talking of peace in Nepal does hint that now India wishes to ensure peace in this beleaguered Kingdom.

The chairman of the Nepal-India friendship Association Mr. Shailendra Kumar Upadhyaya also spoke on the occasion.

Finland expresses concern

Kathmandu: Visibly, the donor community supporting Nepal remains disturbed.

Their puzzle lies in their compulsion in extending support to this country even in the absence of a parliament and elected local bodies at the districts and the villages.

However, since the country is in a war with the Maoists rebels, the members of the donor community find themselves in a very awkward position on how to deal with a country that is a democracy in name but the very basic elements that are demanded of a democracy are totally absent.

The fact is that the donors appear to be in a mood to voice their concern so that Nepal as a nation-state functions purely in a democratic manner and that too having all the basics that are demanded of a democracy in its truest sense of the term.

The Finnish Charge de’ Affaires to the Kingdom of Nepal, Asko Luikkenon, expressed his concern when he said that "if there is no parliament and there is no local representatives might create some obstacles for the future cooperation to Nepal from Finland".

Implied is the message that Finland as a donor is finding herself in a very tight position on how to continue with support to Nepal given the absence of elected and responsible representatives in the country.

He however, maintained that his country would continue the support but would wish that the parliament and the local bodies were in place.

The outgoing Finnish diplomat made these observations last week at a program held in Tamghas while handing over a water supply scheme built jointly with the Finnish and Nepali cooperation.

This perhaps speaks well of the minds of the donor comunity supporting Nepal. 

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