I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
The Cabinet
Making it, breaking it

Kathmandu: Finally Prime Minister Deuba's month long wrangling has yielded a 31-member cabinet of the NC-D, the UML, the RPP and revealingly, even, independents from the erstwhile upper House of the parliament. The nearly two year long search for a national government instigated by the King under article 127 of the constitution has produced something close to it- a cabinet that would have commanded a majority in the dissolved parliament. In this sense the King should be congratulated.

There is another side of the cabinet formation process that deserves analysis however, that it has taken two long years in the making at considerable cost of lives property, wealth and credibility suggest perhaps that the cabinet is tool little too late. The very fact that the Common Minimum Program designed to produce a coalition culture in Nepali politics took so long to thrash over since the appointment of Deuba makes glaring the utter lack since and preparedness among out political parties. That the CMP was merely a façade to cover-up hard bargaining for cabinet positions impresses one that is that governed the chaos in government at the apex in politics remains. There is no solace in the formation of government. The cabinet will have to act and act fast to disapprove this.

If one is left admiring the constitutional monarch and its strength for having absorbed the smear in engineering this logical national requirement one can't but continue to loath our politicians for displaying too familiar traits of partnership and opportunism at the cost of the nation. The fear is that these traits will emerge to render the cabinet unworkable and in cohesive especially when the supposed CMP hardly takes up the workings of the nation's actual needs.

Already the constitution of the cabinet has brought out the all too familiar chinks in each constituents party of the cabinet. The UML's K.P.Woli and Bam Dev Gautam whose segments have been sounded public grumbling prior to the cabinet formation itself. The RPP is known to be poised for a Surya Bahadur Thapa split after chairman P. Rana's shunning has claim for representation. Deuba's party itself is not too happy in its leadership choice to ignore stalwarts.

Of course, the opposition of the Girija Congress and the other smaller parties remain. However, the opposition within the cabinet parties itself will bound to be Deuba's Achilles Hill. As indication on the reaction to the appointment of Mother-in-Law, Pratibha Rana from within Deuba's own and the RPP is striking. Even former DPM, Badri Mandal taking a demotion to man the forest ministry is already subject of ridicule in his own splintered party. And then there is the reaction to the "Palace" appointments from within the UML itself. That the majority partner in government refuses to acknowledge the utility of representation from the upper house reveals the out look of the UML and says much.

It is here that one must pause. After all the first major task of the cabinet is to deal with the Maoists. DPM, Bharat Mohan Adhikari has already told a panting media that he as finance minister will not increase security allocations in the budget. While this will mean a commitment to lure the Maoists to talks, the public suspicion remains that the actual agenda at the talks has already been determined in Lucknow between Mr. Nepal and Prachanda.

If this is true, one can only await the timing of when the CPN-UML team in cabinet will play added politics by withdrawing from the cabinet en masse on grounds of un-workability with a visible alignment with the Maoists in mind. At this stage, the Koirala coalition will be awaiting Madhav Nepal with open hands. It will be perhaps beneficial for the Maoists to take the talks in the direction.

Friends and foes surround Deuba

Kathmandu: Enduring over a month long "labor pain", prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has finally "delivered".

When the beginning is so tedious and time consuming then the outcome of the whole efforts is understandable.

A weak prime minister as he has proved himself to be, Deuba is encircled by ministers, both from his own party and the UML, who will pull the carpet under the feet of the Prime Minister but yet Deuba will not feel the occurrence of the earthshaking event.

What Deuba has done marvelous this time during the formation of his cabinet that he finally managed his own "Mother-in-Law", Mrs. Pratibha Rana, getting inducted in his cabinet. For the political analysts, Mrs. Rana's induction into the cabinet is an added attraction and perhaps for the majority of the population as well.

All in all, Deuba will have now hopefully a small kitchen cabinet comprising of the prime minister, mom-in-law and Madame Deuba who is already being talked in the bureaucratic circles as to be the de facto prime minister. A good combination indeed. The nation is sure to benefit from such an unprecedented event.

Now to come to the point. Deuba by sidelining his trusted and tested aides like Dr. Rizal and Dr. Khadka has bought enemies for himself. The induction of Dr. Prakash Saran Mahat is talked to have been done to pose challenge to Dr. Mahat's own elder brother, Ram Saran Mahat, at time of the elections. This could have been a strategy but then, say analysts, was not a well-drawn strategy. The junior Mahat is still to come of his age comparatively speaking.

Nevertheless, Deuba's desire to bring in new and non-corrupt face in the cabinet deserves appreciation but Nepali analysts say that one is against corruption and corrupt practices until he is deprived of such opportunities. It will have to be watched as to how long Deuba nurtures this illusion.

Minister P.B.Khadka who once enjoyed the portfolios of Home and Industries and commerce is told be a fair personality but not a clean one.

How Deuba manages to satisfy his top-rung colleagues who were all prepared to become ministers but were denied for their past notorious activities being in government will have to be watched. The fact is that Deuba Congress-democratic is a political party because of the presence of those tainted former ministers or else Deuba's party is just a house of cards.

Now that Deuba has become the prime minister and that he has with him in the cabinet a sizeable chunk of his inner friends, analysts hope that the NC-D leaders will now concentrate their efforts at strengthening their weak and loose organization. Thanks that NC-D has been awarded some ministries that yield golden eggs if properly squeezed. If this were so then that would be the beginning of the beginning of Deuba's political fall.

Analysts believe that as a person Deuba is a fair personality and does not harbor any ill intentions towards any one, however, he is advised to remain alert from his own "near-and-dear" ones.

Deuba as nation's prime minister, as a matter of fact, analysts say, should remain cautious of his communist partners who will await any opportunity, which damages the prestige and the popularity of the government, and they will do so taking into account of their own political benefits. The men who have been representing the UML are all "yes-men" of strongman, Madhav Kumar Nepal, who continues to nurture wish of becoming the next prime minister and this he can accomplish when he and his partymen in the government play double.

Talking of the NSP representation, Badri Prasad Mandal, Deuba can trust in him for he is in the cabinet only to enhance his image in the Terai plains or else he would have denied the ministerial post easily. Mr. Mandal is a harmless personality for Deuba.

Analysts have so far failed to understand as to what forced the constitutional monarch to send his nominees to the cabinet? In effect, all the ministers in the cabinet, were all his men. If it were so then why he preferred to send his men? Or the King is being simply accused?

Unless it is clarified by the Palace, people will understand that King also wanted to have his say in the cabinet and hence the two of his nominees in the cabinet. If this is so then what could be concluded is that the King too considered himself as a political party and thus demanded his share in the cabinet and contributed to the formation of a "broad-based" government.

Rumors are that the King did so in order to have his own men at time of the negotiations with the Maoists. However, this is yet to be substantiated.

Four cards under the sleeve

Kathmandu: Madhav Nepal has played his political cards well and in the process gave an impression to all and sundry that he was the one who really were concerned for the nation's fledgling democratic system.

The UML strongman had altogether four cards under his sleeve.

The first card he used to give an impression to Koirala and his partners in the coalition against regression that included the UML as well that he and his party will fight unto death until the regression got corrected and that too in full. The UML was with the coalition against regression thus.

The second card he used against the coalition against regression. This he did when he felt cheated by Koirala, the commander of the agitation. He left the agitation abruptly devising certain political mechanisms wherein he even distorted the very definition of regression. But the fact is that if he were not deceived by Koirala, perhaps he would have continued with the agitation even till todate.

The third card he used to lure Sher Bahadur Deuba and indicated the latter that he was far better than his former commander. To recall, the UML from the very beginning have had hinted Deuba that should such a moment come in the way that offered the UML to elevate its ranks in the government he would not hesitate to opt for that option.

It was his third political card that apparently partially saved Madhav's political face in the face of having been already humiliated by Koirala. An innocent Deuba fell in Madhav's trap.

The UML devised several schemes to seduce Deuba so that the latter could induct his party to the cabinet.

What was full regression for his coalition partners left in the cold amounted to "partial correction" of the regression for Madhav Nepal and his party. In changing the direction of the act of regression, Madhav's card served well in sending mild signals to the Palace which apparently concluded that it is Madhav who has come to the rescue of the palace. Madhav's intention was to send signals to the palace not to take him and his party as a party against the palace. The Palace had reasons to console itself and it did apparently.

The third card is perhaps very important for Madhav and his party for this card will at some time later will facilitate the fourth card to come to its effective use.

The fourth card Madhav will presumably use in damaging the popularity of the incumbent prime minister and he will presumably do it at time of the government's negotiations with the Maoists, if at all it takes place. In effect this card is kept exclusively to be used against government and concurrently pleasing the insurgents.

Analysts maintain that Madhav Nepal is still having his contacts with Prachanda and appears ideologically closer to the rebels. To recall, some of the points in the UML's nine point agenda does favor the Maoists demands in an indirect manner.

The UML idea is that the government might forward its limitations at times of the talks with the Maoists and it would be this time around that the UML members in the cabinet will quit the government en masse which will not only embarrass the government but would concurrently send signals to the Maoists camp that it is only the UML which is close to the Maoists concerns.

If in case the UML's en masse exit from the cabinet brings about a collapse of the Deuba cabinet, then the UML might claim the natural heir to the throne in Singh Durbar.

Thus goes the UML strategy. However, politics might not proceed as per Madhav's way. To these UML possible overtures to succeed, he will have to confront his "antidotes", Bam Dev and K.P.Woli-the two declared equally competent and aggressive rivals of Madhav Nepal who has succeeded in sending all of his "yes-men" in Deuba's cabinet much to the chagrin of the two disgruntled stalwarts.

Let's wait and see how the UML's chief plays his cards under his sleeves and how his detractors foil his inner designs if any.

"You ask them"

--King Gyanendra

Kathmandu: A question that has been still boggling the minds of the analysts and the intellectuals alike is whether with the appointment of Sher Bahadur Deuba, the alleged act of regression stands valid or not?

Varied interpretations are in vogue even after the Deuba set up has taken its formal shape.

For some still the October 4 move initiated by the monarch amounts to regression. For others, with Deuba bouncing back to power has partially rectified the regression.

For a section of the media, albeit the partisan ones, regression continues or the regression is not in its existence.

The Kathmandu based international community too is puzzled on how to take Deuba's fresh appointment? Whether this appointment has corrected regression or has still intensified the regression, the puzzle continues. If for Koirala and his coalition partners, the act of regression continues still with full force and that their agitation will continue ad infinitum till the people get their rights back. Or in other words, Koirala and his team against regression will not settle for less than the King yielding to their demands.

For the UML, Deuba's appointment contained some seeds of democratic norms and hence the party decided to call his appointment as an act that partially corrected regression.

For the international community, Deuba's appointment was better than his two predecessors in the sense that Deuba has armed himself with a much more broad-based government.

A better arrangement than Chand and Thapa's.

But how the monarch himself views all these interpretations now in circulation in the rumor mill?

It was last Thursday when the Palace secretariat invited Nepal's media men for a cocktails inside the palace to mark the auspicious birth day of the constitutional monarch.

It was in this gathering of the media men, one journalist, Dev Prakash Tripathi, the editor of the Ghatana Ra Bichar weekly who could not control his temptation when the monarch came in his front and enquired of the King.

Well, Your Majesty, I have a small query. Should I proceed with that?

His majesty nodded his head and the journalist thus put his question which is as follows.

"Your Majesty! Some say that regression still prevailed. Others say with Deuba's appointment, regression has partially corrected. We the media men are confused with these interpretations. How should we take such interpretations for our journalistic consumption?"

"You ask them", pat came the reply from the monarch.

(The portion of the talks in between the monarch and Mr. Tripathi is exclusively based on what has been printed in the Dristi weekly dated 6th July, 2004-editor).

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