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Deuba already in doldrums

Kathmandu: Things are inauspicious for the Deuba government. His cabinet has not met two weeks in a row. His ministers are contradicting themselves. His largest coalition partners are already breaking apart, the seams and then there is "king maker", the UML's Madhav Nepal, imposing his dictates on government while the UML's deputy Prime Minister, finance minister, Bharat Mohan Adhikari threatening to go solo in his forthcoming budget in the absence of essential coordination.

This is not altogether surprising. In the over fifty year history of Nepal's organizational politics, coalitions have not lasted long. The very first Rana-Congress cabinet broke apart in less than a year. The three coalitions of the RPP's Chand, and Thapa did the same some years back. The one headed by Deuba that followed was soon replaced by the Girija-Madhav coalition which finally conducted the last general elections. The very fact that it took some twenty months to form the closest thing to a national government as cajoled by the King demonstrates the fractiousness of a political sector seemingly bent to put the nation and the constitution in jeopardy in the search for partisan advantage.

Of course, it took the coalescing parties three weeks to patch up their "common minimum program" with the realization that a coalition culture was highly necessary to solve the national crisis. Evidently, that culture is yet in the making.

And so if the first government under article 127 began facing public opposition after the first month and the Thapa government which followed was opposed after a fortnight. Deuba's coalition is seriously threatened from day one. To be noted moreover, is that more than the opposition coming from the now nearly marginalized agitation led by Girija Prasad Koirala's congress, the real threat is from within the constituent parties of the coalition where individual members in the UML, the RPP and even the Sadbhavana have come public with deliberations to assuage their conceived disgruntlements. Even Deuba's own congress-D stalwarts, left in the cold from the cabinet are said to be on the move to whip him with the Girija Koirala stick.

Of course, the biggest threat to Deuba will always be Madhav Nepal's UML. Coalition experience in Nepal in no case minimizes the possibility of this quarter deserting Deuba outright after the advantage of government has helped fill its election coffers. The UML has only been in government for months at a stretch since 1990. Its senior role in K.P. Bhattarai interim government helped entrench is as verily the second largest party in the country after the first general elections. The second elections conducted by Koirala under a cloud of dissent within the congress helped flip the UML to a nine-month minority government. Coalition with the RPP helped bring it the largest representation at the local levels while partnering the GP Koirala led election government gave it the role of the largest opposition party again.

In essence thus, the need to fill party coffers from government is a desperation all its own for this cadre based party and so the seemingly endless manipulations of its leaders. To boot, if Madhav Nepal's Prime Ministerial ambitions has been repeatedly stalled by rival Girija's manipulations, the possibility that his claim to office as heading the largest opposition party in the dissolved parliament will be fulfilled by a Deuba exit makes possible the surmise that he will at any time pull the coalition carpet from under Deuba's already shaky feet. These may be mere speculation, however. But the biggest threat to Deuba lurks from the Maoist quarters. As yet Deuba's peace gestures to the insurgency have been ignored outright. This gives meaning to a UML-Maoist strategy currently under widespread speculation. The possibilities here, too, suggest the proximity of the collapse of the Deuba coalition.

Koirala's efforts at settling Maoists issue shadowing Deuba's overtures

Kathmandu: Nepali Congress President Girija Prasad Koirala is in a flying mood.

His speeches and lectures he has made upon his return from Delhi pilgrimage provides one the impression that he is the one heading a parallel government of which naturally he is the Prime Minister.

Undoubtedly, his ambitions got a Phillip while he was in India. The manner Koirala was well received and treated by the leaders manning today's Indian establishment does clearly hint that Koirala continues to be an important political partner for them in Nepal. Indeed very disturbing news for his detractors and political rivals.

However, what is puzzling is that Koirala talks contradictory languages. He says he did not meet the Maoists. At another moment he and his political aides confirm that Koirala did talk to the Maoist Supremo over telephone.

Upon his return to Kathmandu, Koirala says at the airport that he did not meet whom he wanted to see but then yet he did initiate some meaningful contacts with the leaders of the insurgency.

The next day Koirala beamingly tells his party cadres not to panic and that he has already thrown the ball into the court of the Maoists and that he received very positive signals from the other camp.

Still a few days later Koirala begins revealing what as a senior politician he should have not. Koirala begins talking as if he were the country's Prime Minister and that in that capacity he talked with the leaders on the matters related with the Maoist insurgency wherein he sought their support in settling the issue for good.

Koirala in the process of revealing even goes to the extent that he have had extensive discussions with the UN officials and that the UN at his call is all set to establish a sort of HR Cell in Nepal to monitor the activities of the Nepali establishment and that of the Maoists insurgents is the two declare a ceasefire and the insurgents agree for laying down their arms prior to the talks.

Koirala however, remains tight-lipped on how the Indian establishment reacted to Koirala's preference for the UN mediation to an exclusively homegrown Nepali issue?

But then yet perhaps sensing the Indian sensitivities, Koirala appears to have convinced his Indian friends that he was in favor of the UN involvement to the extent that their presence could be felt and that the UN will not get engaged in any form in settling the issue for good.

Koirala's admission that he has convinced his friends in Delhi is true to the extent that India too now considers the Maoists issue as a "shared security problem" which got reflected when the outgoing Indian Ambassador Shyam Saran did disclose this at a NTV telecast made Monday evening.

However, what is also clear from the Ambassador's subtle hint that since Nepal was competent enough to settle this issue, India will be pleased if this Kingdom did it on its own and opted not to invite others.

Albeit this he said in an implied manner.

( Media sources say that Koirala met comrade Prachanda on a Thursday in Delhi at the official residence of one Indian parliamentarian, Mani Limbu, writes one weekly that is supposedly close to prime minister Deuba in its latest issue. This revelation remains to be substantiated yet).

Now question arises as to why the things India ventilated to Koirala on matters related to the insurgency, she is hesitating to tell it to a competent and a legitimate government in Kathmandu? Or should we the Nepalese consider that what the Ambassador said in the interview is the official position of the Indian establishment vis-à-vis the Maoists?

Perhaps yes! After all Ambassadors are posted to do such things.

Yet another question comes to the fore is that whom should the UN officials contact to discuss such sensitive matters? With a legitimate government or with the captain of a political party who possesses some sort of allergy with the kind of establishment Nepal has at the moment and more so who has a bad-taste for the man who is the chief of the executive at the moment?

Well, the analysts say, that if the UN officials or for that matter Kofi Annan himself are talking with Koirala to garner support for the UN mediation in Nepal, that is different. But the manner Koirala is presenting himself as regards the UN mediation what could be inferred is that every thing has been decided in between Koirala and the UN and that the UN is all set to step in Kathmandu any moment from now.

This is puzzling indeed.

The fact is that the Nepali establishment is dead against the UN mediation. At least this is the impression among the public who wishes to know as to why the government of the day is rejecting the UN mediation at the first place? What is the harm in inviting the common friend, the United Nations? Is it that the rejection is only due to the fact that Comrade Prachanda has demanded it?

Be that as it may. Koirala's activism or adventurism or give it any name, is helped restore normalcy and becomes the harbinger of peace, let's welcome. After all, Koirala too is the son of the same soil and he too as a matured leader of the country has the right to convince the insurgents.

But Koirala also should not forget his political limits. He is by and large the leader of a political party and nothing more than that.

It would have been nice and fairly more productive if Koirala's activism were combined with whatever efforts the Deuba set would have been doing in this regard though secretly.

But will Koirala prefer to tie his moves with those of the government? Perhaps not. It's ego problem.

Indian envoy hints support in tackling Maoist issue

Kathmandu: The outgoing Indian Ambassador to the Nepali court, Shyam Saran, has admitted that the Maoists insurgency of this Himalayan Kingdom does pose a challenge to his country as well.

"It's a shared challenged for both of us. We know that the Nepali insurgency has well established linkages in India which have been creating security challenges within India and that their activities in India is a threat", is what Ambassador said talking Monday evening with Nepal television.

A close analysis of what Ambassador saran has said does indicate that Nepali Maoists now constitute a security threat to the Indian establishment and that the Maoists will now be treated in a different manner.

He moreover, hinted that his country's support to settle this issue was not only essential but India was awaiting Nepali call in this regard.

Nevertheless, on the question of the possible UN mediation, the Ambassador could not hide his country's hesitation but then yet candidly said that Nepal as a sovereign country was free to decide on its own whether or not the UN mediation was needed in this regard.

"All these are means, not the end", is what Ambassador said on the UN mediation but hastened to add that "India would be ready to support any peace process should such a request came from the Nepali side".

Ambassador Saran who is shortly to take up the assignment of India's Foreign Secretary beginning August, next month, said that as Indian envoy to this country, he concentrated his efforts in enhancing greater understanding in between the two countries. He however, maintained that South Block must now think seriously on how to tackle the bilateral issues with its immediate small neighbors.

"New orientation will have to be initiated", opined Ambassador saran.

Nevertheless, he also admitted that Nepal was a complex country which required sensitive and careful handling.

To yet another query of the TV questioner, Ambassador Saran assured that even if he were the India's foreign secretary, he would accord priority to the Nepali issues not only because he served in this country as Ambassador of India but also due to the fact that the new establishment attached great importance to its relations with Nepal.

He however, strongly rebuked the claims of some interested quarters that his meeting the people of various social discipline and the leaders of this country amounted to some sort of interference.

"As envoy of a country, more so of a neighboring nation, my duty is to interact with as many people as I could but those meetings were and should be directed for the benefit of bilateral relations", added Ambassador saran.

All in all, what was evident from Ambassador saran's TV interview is that India was a changed country now for she knew that Maoists amounted to a threat to their own security. What was also clear from his explanation that India would be more than happy to be of tangible support in striking a deal with the Maoists should Nepal demanded the use of her good offices. And finally, what was also made amply clear is that India would wish the constitutional monarchy, the political parties coming closer and face the Maoists challenge together.

Last but not the least, Ambassador Saran frankly admitted that he enjoyed his Kathmandu tenure very much.

Congratulations Ambassador Saran on being elevated to the ranks of India's Foreign Secretary.

New political equation likely to take shape!

Kathmandu: If one were to believe the media reports, what becomes clear is that it would be the UML leader, Madhav Nepal, who would be the cause for the premature death of Deuba led four party coalition.

The reason: Madhav Nepal's skyrocketing political ambitions.

That Madhav Nepal is being severely criticized by his "yes-men" and detractors alike becomes clear from the manner the UML strongman is behaving with the ministers he sent to the cabinet and with those who opposed his selection process.

His own party ministers had to gulp bitter pill the manner they were chastised and provided dictates of the do's and the don'ts as if the ministers were fools and were all his school students.

"Don't talk with strange persons, don't talk off-the-cuff with the media and don't eat with some one who is not close to you", were some of the Stalin like sermons that Madhav Nepal made to his party colleagues now in the Deuba's cabinet.

However, while providing strong worded instructions, Madhav Nepal did deliberately or otherwise missed to tell his men not to pocket money by abusing their ministerial authority. Should this mean that the UML ministers will have a free hand if and when such opportunities allow them to pocket money?

That his own top-rung colleagues were not happy with Madhav's poor performances in the recent days came to the fore when his equally competent rival, Bam Dev Gautam, bluntly revealed that the party General Secretary was supporting the Deuba government outwardly or else he was more interested in the collapse of this coalition set so that he could satisfy his internal ambitions of becoming the nation's next prime minister.

Question now arises as to why Mr. Gautam charged his own party boss? Is he in knowledge that Madhav is maneuvering the collapse of the Deuba regime? Or Mr. Gautam's charges were simply to defame his party boss?

Bam Dev in all his honesty is on record to have said that Deuba government must continue which means that he is in favor of the longevity of this set. Is it that since Mr. Gautam has good words for Deuba and hence his rival Madhav Nepal has to object or reject the Deuba establishment? Is this only an act of vengeance or Madhav's growing political ambitions?

If Madhav has some hidden ambitions or agenda then that will come to the fore at time of the talks with the Maoists for if it is so then Madhav will put his entire thrust either on discrediting his own party coalition government in order to declare Deuba establishment as an incompetent one or would push the Maoists to forwards harsh conditions.

Madhav's extra political ambitions, if he possessed any, would also come to the surface on how he supports Koirala's solo overtures aimed at bringing the Maoists to the table. If he supports Koirala unconditionally would mean that he was less interested in providing credit to Deuba at time of the talks. But then should that mean that Madhav Nepal by time has already forgotten what Koirala did to him only a month ago?

Not very surprising that Madhav's nine point agenda almost appear similar to those of the Maoists demands and add to it Koirala's growing nexus with the Maoists insurgency. To recall, many now see Prachanda's political wavelength tallying with those of Koirala's.

All put together, what is for sure is that country's politics is under severe strain. The possibility of the formation of a new Koirala-Madhav-Prachanda political equation will surely damage Deuba and might shorten the days of this government in power.

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