Planning Politics in Nepal-III

Dr. Ram Kumar Dahal

The Nepalese planners and planning agencies in practice have totally failed in planning for the poor, voiceless, powerless, women, dalit, adibasi Janajatis (indigenous nationalities) and the marginalized ones and whatever limited attempts were made in this direction were virtually monopolized by the so-called tatha batha or by the elite. virtually, the citizens: right to participate in the entire development process including their right to have clean administration and rights based governance and right to education have been seriously challenged. Most of the provisions as mentioned in nearly fourteen international covenants and conventions of which Nepal is a party and ILO conventions including the international provisions of right to life, right to have adequate food and right to shelter have been seriously violated. The Nepalese planners have failed to address these issues and respect the human rights (HRs) of the citizens. The Nepalese planning has also suffered much from the mind set of central government and bureaucrats who do not like to decentralize power in the hands of local people. The mentality of the bureaucrats at the central government's bureaucracy is strictly towards centralization and feel threatened by the decentralized governance and powerful local bodies. A centralized planning and budgeting system still exist in Nepal in the form of line agencies which follows the blue print approach and set targets and budget form the centre even against the priorities and needs of the local bodies.

The success of development planning largely depends on the political commitment of the leaders, particularly those in power and the mind set of central government. Under the current planning structures, the Nepalese welfare state has failed to develop regional/ecological, ethnic, socio-cultural, linguistic and gender balance in the field of planning. Plans in Nepal are generally formulated without properly identifying country's existing economic resources needed for the on going projects and consequently, no practical relationship exist between goals and targets. The pervasive political and administrative corruption, government slackness/delay and a number of factors related to this have negatively affected the planning in Nepal. The lack of proper evaluation and monitoring mechanism and absence of effective criteria for evaluation have practically added some problems in this direction. The lack of political commitment and the political slackness and passive attitude have led to the total failure of planning mechanism in Nepal. Moreover, the inadequacy of information or absence of data bank and the politicization/distortion of data by the government have added some more challenges in this direction. Due to the unclear role of the private sector and Nepal's adoption of economic policies including privatization, liberalization, globalization without any detail homework have added much more confusion in planning sector. The extreme polarization of planning mechanism in Nepal and their inadequate official and physical capability have virtually weaken them at the foundation level. A number of challenges still exist even in the macro economic estimation and survey. Practically speaking planning in Nepal in most cases has virtually Income a formal activity. The monopolization of economic resources by political heavy weights or those in power or over concentration of government fund in the constituency of the powerful leaders have practically made the planning mechanism as the effective tools to serve the interest of these political elite rather than planning for the general people consequently, these planning mechanisms have completely failed to maintain political, regional/geographic/ecological racial/ethnic, linguistic, religious and administrative balance. Nepal's heavy dependency on foreign aid/grant than mobilizing, existing national resources and the mis-utilization of fund at political and administrative level have added a number of challenges in planning sector.

Due to the frequent change in government and political instability, contradictions between the planning policies objectives and priorities and annual budget allocation have been clearly noticed which has virtually made the planning mechanism almost dysfunctional. In order to effectively implement planning in Nepal a number of recommendations could be put forward: The development plans in Nepal should give priority to alleviate poverty, give employment opportunities, reduce economic inequalities, maximum utilize the existing human and national resources, encourage balanced and rapid economic development, encourage self sufficiency, economic stability, social security and social justice increase per capita income (PCI) and gross domestic product (GDP). It should also take necessary initiative to discourage politics of alienation. Proper planning has to be made based on the country situation and needs including long and short range, micro and macro sectoral and development planning. The creation of economic and social infrastructures, gradual industrialization and agricultural development, appropriate measures for population control, achieve balance growth, maximization or extension of export and minimization of import should be its ultimate goals. The NPC and NDC should be activated and made effective and their polarization on political ground should be strictly discouraged.

(To be concluded)

Economic impact of HIV/AIDS

Kamala Sarup, USA

Nepal, already crippled with problems of underdevelopment, poverty, food scarcity, internal conflicts, is the hardest hit by the HIV-AIDS pandemic. If the number of HIV infections continue to rise at the current rate, the Nepal’s economy could become crippled, increasing health costs and dampening workplace productivity. If HIV continues to infect younger people of productive age groups, it will have an all-round effect on our development. HIV related illness and death creates new poverty, deepens existing poverty and increases family and national indebtedness.

The economic repercussions of the HIV epidemic at macro level are already being felt in the public and private sectors in Nepal. The cause and consequences of the epidemic are closely associated with other challenges to development including poverty, unemployment, civil unrest, indebtedness and rural-urban movements. There’s no question that if the epidemic reaches thausends — which is about two times what it is now — it will have a serious adverse consequence on the economy. In the context oof a stagnating economy, the cost of treatment will "be greater than the economic value of the lives. This will make a significant dent on the growth rate of Net Domestic Product of Nepal within the next few decades. Per Capita income levels are also expected to fall in future.

One of the active social worker Cicilia spoke to The Telegraph at Washington DC on the subject. She said "AIDS can severely retard economic growth by destroying human capital in three ways: AIDS primarily affects people in their productive years. The death of parents affects the transmission of knowledge and ability across generations. Besides, the loss of income due to disability and early death reduces the resources available for educating children and this, in turn, translates into low productivity of future adults. These adults will be less able to invest in the education of their children".

HIV/AIDS is mostly prevalent in the age group of 15-49 years. This age group is very much important from economic productivity point of view. This age group is again the mostsexually active group. If we have a look of the routs of the transmission of HIV, we find that sexual transmission of HIV is most common. It is the cause of transmission in almost 90 per cent of the total infections. This simply construes that there is an urgent need to propagate for the safer sex practices and awareness campaigns on HIV/AIDS at home and at work place.

AIDS activist Samjhana Gurung at Pennsylvania said " If the quantity and quality of work done by the productive work force drops; the overall income of the family and the community will greatly devastated. Poverty, for example, limits spending on health and nutrition as well as education. Lack of education will naturally mean lack of awareness about HIV. It also means fewer choices in the job market and lesser bargaining power to negotiate working conditions. Lack of employment opportunities drive women into the sex trade and are factors in increasing migration within the country".

Nepal economy would be severely hit if the number of AIDS victims surged to thausends in the next decade. The epidemic has cost millions of Rupees to individuals and their families. It is true to say that there is a great possibility of multiplier effects of the disease which can penetrate to the general population of Nepal in the near future.

She continued, "we need to upscale our efforts to mobilize adequate human and financial resources to effectively confront the epidemic. The millions required for anti-viral treatment could only be met by external financing if national health priorities were not completely distorted. We must work to mitigate the tremendous impact of the epidemic on the ability of governments to provide basic social services".

She further said "Long periods of separation from their families often lead migrant workers to indulge in high risk sexual behaviour. Especially vulnerable are young people in sex work, young intravenous drug users, young combatants, young civilians caught up in armed conflict, street youth and orphaned youth do not insist on use of condoms. Yet vast number of young people remain unaware or ignorant concerning HIV/AIDS. The information and services that could prevent infection are often not available to, or accessible by, young people, and national strategies reflect scant regard for young people’s needs and realities".

Although the Nepal government has launched a nationwide programme to halt the disease, Nepal faces an uphill battle in tackling AIDS. Since most of the infected with HIV/AIDS are younger people. Higher medical expenditures will reduced not only saving but also other current expenditures. The labor force is calculated as the sum of the economically active population for each age group between 15 and 64. Economically active person also includes all persons who contribute to the supply of labor for the production of goods and services.

As costs of health care increase due to AIDS, there will be a negative domestic saving effect barring the case where the increase in medical spending is paid for by reducing other current expenditures. The fall in domestic saving will indicate a fall in capital formation, which in turn will lead to a potentially large adverse effect on per capita income over the long term. In addition to the direct dissaving by households that experience greater income variability in the presence of AIDS.

"I don’t want to give a specific number on whether it will cut growth by a percentage point or one and a half percentage points or lead to a public or political crisis or financial crisis. But I know the consequences would be tragic and serious. Nepal needed millions of dollars to deal with the disease which, if unchecked, could "be one of the greatest calamities in history". Dr. Cicilia said.

High infection rate with HIV among the economically active persons in Nepal is a real cause of concern. For example, the proportion of HIV positive cases is found to be highest in the age group between 21-30 years. The resulting effect on the government budget will be exacerbated because more and more of the young will be orphans as the AIDS epidemic worsens, implying higher government costs if not total costs of raising children.

Although HIV cases are rising, the government is yet to provide sufficient funds to combat the syndrome. Apart from the Kathmandu Valley, HIV infection is concentrated in urbanised areas and districts in the mid-west and far west, where there is high labour migration. With few exceptions, a large number of people with HIV-AIDS have no access to services and doctors sometimes refuse to treat them. The challenge is to train medical staff, extend laboratory services, increase care and support system as well as provide voluntary counselling and testing services. Although prevalence of the disease is still low in the general population, it is increasing in several groups.

Social activist Nora said "AIDS treatment - which requires anti-retroviral (ARV) drugs and highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART) - costs about $600 a person a year. In a country where the per capita annual income is $220, medical care without government assistance is virtually impossible".

A decisive policy action is the need of the hour at this stage to minimize the negative effects of the AIDS epidemic on the socio-economy of Nepal. This needs a multi-sectoral and multi-disciplinary response, with collaboration between partners, Governments and non-Government research institutes, international agencies, community based groups and most importantly, the people directly affected. If resolute and concerted action is not taken against the spread of HIV/AIDS, the human death toll and suffering that will be inflicted will be catastrophic.The epidemic can also push up costs of worker replacement, absenteeism, insurance expenses and health care expenditures for the private sector.

If we don’t act now, HIV/AIDS will become a social and developmental issue. Our accumulated economic growth will be wiped out.

(Kamala Sarup can be reached at ksarup@yahoo.com )

China and South Asia

Sri. Sun Heping, Ambassador People's Republic of China, Nepal

China’s foreign policy towards South Asia, is to implement the policy of developing friendship with China’s South Asian neighbors by living in harmony and partnership with its neighbors, and promote mutual understanding, trust, friendship and cooperation between China and countries concerned.

South Asia is one of earliest regions with which China has the history of exchanges. There is a famous China phrase I have remebered since my childhood: "go to the west heaven for scriptures." It means that someone who wants to upgrade his learning must go to the west heaven. Where is the west heaven? It is South Asia. The phrase is derived from the legend of Master Monk Xuanzang in China’s Tang Dynasty more than a thousand years ago, who became a weel-known pundit in ancient China after learning Sanscrit scriptures during his visit to Nepal and India in Sout Asia.

China has more than 3000 kilometers of land border with some South Asia countuies such as India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bhutan, and enjoys friendly relations and cooperation in economic, trade and other fields with South Asia Countries. These countries, as China does, attach great importance to relations between them and hope that China will establish linkage with SAARC, take active part in and promote economice cooperation in South Asia.

In recent years under the guidance of the Five Principles of peaceful Coexistence and thanks to the joint efforts, China-Indian relations have been improving and developing in an all-round way. It’s the common will of the two peoples to develop friendly and neighborly ties between China and India. After new Indian Government takes office(speech delivered before the formation of govt.), China stands ready to work with India to maintain and develop the sound momentum of China-India relations and to press ahead with the constant and further development of the long-term constructive partnership and cooperation between the two countries.

In the meantime, China keeps cordial relations and friendly cooperation with other South Asian Countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri-Lanka, Maldives and Bhutan.

As a colse neighbor of South Asian countries, China sincerely hopes that countries in this region can live in harmony and develop hand in hand for common prosperity and is ready to play a constructive role in pressing ahead peaceful cooperation in South Asia.

As for the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), China express appereciation and support for the efforts and achievements SAARC has made in strengthening cooperation among South Asia countries, China also hopes that SAARC can play an active role in alleviating poverty and promoting common development of South Asian countries and safeguarding peace and stability in South Asia.

In his message of congratulations to the convocation of the 12th SAARC Summit in Islamabad on January 4, 2004, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said:

"Since its founding, SAARC has played an active role in enhancing the economic development, social progress and cultural exchange in South Asia thanks to the common efforts of its member states. Today leaders of SAARC member states meet to discuss major issues of futher stepping up South Asia regional cooperation and moving towads common prosperity. I am sure that this Summit will exert a positive influence upon the regional development and cooperation in this part of the world."

China and South Asian countries enjoy long-standing friendly relations and cooperation. The Chinese government is ready to work together with the governments of all South Asian countries to promote the cause of peace and development in the Premier Wen Jiabao’s message sent a strong signal, in my view, that, with the further enhancement of friendly relations and cooperation between China and SAARC member countries bassed on the aspiration of our peoples, the time is now basically ripe to establish relations between China and SAARC.

(Excerpts from the author's speech made at NCWA talk program)

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