I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Politics now focus on talks

Kathmandu: After twenty months of intense politicking, the country has got the closest to a national government that for the first time since the Maoist insurgency can talk to the Maoists with the confidence that it has the bulk national opinion behind it. Now that the budget has demonstrated that the government can agree with itself on a fiscal policy, the process appears on, to initiate the much-awaited dialogue with the Maoists. So much is fine.

However, this is not that meets the eye. Contradictory standpoints on even the fiscal policy already declared by government publicly suggest that even the talks with the Maoists will have members of government talking to themselves when the talks should be with the Maoists.

Although the concept of the "peace secretariat" has been adopted hinting that this organ will be solely in charge of the talks, party dictates to government on how the talks should take place make evident that contradictions within the shaky coalition will continue to effect the talks which is one major rationale of the government itself.

The key issue for the Maoists as highlighted by its proponents is what is deemed as Nepal's civic society is that talks can only take place upon the cessation of armed conflict. This would mean that both the parties cease firing. This would mean that the army restrict itself to the barracks. This would also mean that the Maoists be allowed its presence outside the barracks albeit without arms. Now that they have ensured that civil competition to their organization in the countryside is limited to urban centers how this lopsided security situation will be allowed by authorities aware that it is merely the security forces that gives the state a semblance of balance in the countryside is any body's guess.

Again Maoists voices in civic society suggest that government has denied the preliminaries itself. Since the insurgency if for a constituent assembly that gives the people a choice for a republic, the agenda for talks has been negated at the very outset by government saying that it will not talk on constitutional monarchy and multi-party democracy.

This belligerent standpoint on part of the Maoists makes evident its confidence this round that any compromise on part of government for sake of talks will be capitalized as a concession by the "old regime".

These indicators make evident the difference between Maoists postures during the previous talks and the current one. It appears that the insurgents are aware that what they call the old-regime has been so conveniently been stalemated by contradictions within that they can impress their will upon them through sheer force of strength given the urgency for peace.

There is meaning therefore in Prime Minister Deuba's repeated comments that the talks this round must yield results if they are at all to take place and they must be more than for sake of talks as previously.

But the hitch lies here. Contradictions with government itself and among the constitutional forces are likely to impede Deuba's determination. The Maoists are skillfully playing with its UML contacts to hasten the talks. Girija Koirala's urgency to undermine Deuba makes sure that he has his own Maoists cards. At least one "constitutional" party—the United people's Front is known for its links with the Maoists. Civic society fronts for the Maoists gain from media presence echoing the public desire for peace.

It is these that are real challenges to the talks. Amidst the ignorance of the security component in the talks, the possibility of the talks yielding lasting peace and permanent political solutions becomes remote. Much will depend on whether the government demonstrates its required cohesiveness for the talks to yield targeted results. The Maoists at least know their targets and have pursued it well.

HDR-2004 Released
Anekta ma Ekta, Nepali ko Biseshta
(Unity in Diversity, A Nepali Specialty)

Kathmandu: With the last year's dismal performance in the South Asian region, Nepal surprisingly outranked Pakistan and climbed two places up in the HDI ranking. This was stated on the occasion of the release of Human Development Report-2004, on Monday 19th July 2004.

The report, which has "Cultural Liberty in Today's Diverse World" as its theme, indicates Maldives as the best performer, ranking highest at 84 in the region, while Bangladesh and Nepal at 138 and 140. Whereas the worst performer, Pakistan is at 142.

In the world, Norway tops the list with an HDI value of 0.956, followed by Sweden, Australia, Canada and the Netherlands.

Key Points of the HDR with respect to Nepal

HDI (Human Development Index)

With the HDI value of 0.504 Nepal belongs to the category of the Medium Human Development Countries. However, it ranks second last in this category followed by Cameroon.

HPI (Human Poverty Index)

This year Nepal ranks 69th among 95 developing countries for which Human Poverty Index has been calculated with the HPI value of 41.2%, whereas last year's report showed Nepal at 70th position among 94 countries with HPI value of 41.9%.

GDI (Gender related development Index)

From the last year's "worst" performer in South Asia with the ranking of 119 in the Gender related development Index (GDI), Nepal, this year is at 116th position with a GDI value of 0.484 among 144 countries. Pakistan, notably, is yet again the worst performer in the region ranking 120.

GEM (Gender Empowerment Measure)

The last years report showed 7.9% of the seats in the parliament held by women but this year no data in provided in this regard. However the report shows increase in female earned income by 24 US$ from last year which was 867US$. The estimated earned income for male counterpart is indicated as 1,776US$.

Nepal in the report

The occupational castes in Nepal have under-five mortality rates of more than 17%, compared with around 7% for the Newar and in Brahmin.

For Dalits

- Life Expectancy at Birth is 40

- Adult Literacy Rate is around 5-7%

- Income per capita is around 10 US$

The Maoists insurgency launched in Nepal in 1996 may be attributed to deep grievances stemming from the systematic marginalization and exclusion of certain ethnic groups castes and women.

Work by the UNDP Bureau of Conflict Prevention and recovery shows that the likelihood of conflict increases with rising group inequality; as in Indonesia and Nepal.

A state where one religion benefits from a formal alliance with the government- that is having an "established" religion. Examples include, Hinduism in Nepal.

Net primary enrollment ratio: 1990/1991: 85%; 2001/2002: 70%. Nepal is among the worst performers with the change of –14%.

The theme proposed by the UNDP this year is nothing new for the Nepalese as it is this breed that has been listening this dictum from their very childhood days. However, what is also true is that though acculturated to this dictum, it is this breed again that has ever failed when it came to its implementation in practice.

Analysts suggest the UNDP to learn lessons from Nepal's past experiences and concentrate its efforts on how to implement the proposed schemes so that it is not a failure.

The UNDP assistant representative Mr. Nicholas Brown, addressing the ceremony said, " In Nepal, the problems of social exclusion, structural inequality, discrimination have been commonly attributed as the root causes for the current conflict.

The UNESCO representative Koto Kano and the NPC chairman Dr. Shankar Sharma and Mr. Parashuram Tamang, Vice Chairman of the UN permanent forum on Indigenous issues also spoke on the occasion.

The report is released every year since 1990 and is the15th in the series.

Nepali politics swings Maoists way

Kathmandu: Nepali politics has suddenly become vibrant.

Most of the political leaders, either in the shaky coalition government or out in the streets, appear pretty enthusiastic in providing the Maoists imbroglio a new turn for the better.

In the process, some have marched already alone hoping that the Maoists insurgency, if it were to settle for good, it is only they who can influence the talks and bring the insurgents to the nation's political mainstream.

For example, President Koirala has vowed that he was alone enough to settle the Maoists problem and that he have had so many round of talks with the Maoists leaders either being in Delhi or even in Kathmandu.

Madhav Nepal, the strongman of the UML, is also in the race and is learnt to have maintained his contacts with the Maoists leaders since his last controversial Lucknow trip. Strong rumors have it that the UML leader only last week talked with Comrade Prachanda over telephone and apparently told him that his party will spare no efforts this time to bring the insurgents to the table.

Mr. Nepal's telephonic conversation with Prachanda has come immediately after Koirala's assertions that he had already held discussions with the Maoists leader. It appears that Madhav Nepal is on the race only to negate the gains of Koirala and his fresh conversations with Prachanda was guided more with a desire to keep Koirala at a comfortable distance than to settle the issue for good.

It is not surprising therefore that the UML and its leader, Madhav Nepal, have been pressing the government hard to announce a ceasefire and prepare a conducive atmosphere so that the talks could begin at the earliest.

Madhav's desire to outmaneuver Koirala's overtures grew to the extent that he and his party only a few hours ago absolved the Maoists from being dubbed as terrorists.

"The Maoists are not terrorists as some would claim. However, some of their activities did amount to terrorism", is what the UML party announced Tuesday afternoon as reported by Kantipur Television.

A section of the analysts believe that Madhav's enthusiasm could have some thing to do with Prachanda's preference for talks. However, this has yet to be substantiated.

Talking of Koirala, he is providing an impression to all and sundry that if he were to initiate the talks with the rebels, he does not need the sanctions of the establishment. His utterances make it amply clear is that he would go in for the talks with the Maoists by out rightly "ignoring" the presence of the government that is the "old regime". But can he do so is a Himalayan question indeed. What if he walks alone?

However, a clever Madhav Nepal, some what differs with his street-friend until a month ago, and says that he is in favor of early talks but he would not "bypass" the government. This is very natural for the UML itself is a constituent in the government and he can't ignore a regime wherein his own party's participation is predominant. To recall, Madhav Nepal is also on record to have said the other day that while taking up the Maoists issue one can neither afford to Nepal's Royal Palace nor New Delhi.

What Mr. Nepal means when he says that New Delhi can't be ignored is not clear. However, what is clear is that New Delhi has a role. But what type of role Madhav is talking about is still shrouded in mystery.

Collecting Koirala's and Madhav's fresh overtures together, what becomes clear is that both the leaders have taken up the challenge on their own with a hope that if they succeeded in settling the issue would elevate them individually to the rank of a national hero. But will Koirala tolerate this title going to Madhav's personality and vice versa?

This is not all.

Other leaders like Lila Mani Pokhrel and Amik Sherchan and a host of many others too have been announcing that they were in contacts with the Maoists.

Add to this the four-party combine now in the streets with a punctured and fractured agitation against regression, too have beamingly declared that they too had established linkages with the Maoists.

Thanks that the government, better late than never, too Monday afternoon announced that a cell was being established that would do the needful in this regard.

All put together, Koirala is in his solo mission. Madhav and his party too have taken up the challenge. Smaller communist factions appear encouraged. The government is following the footsteps of those who were on the move in order to bring the Maoists to the table.

The Maoists as a political force are one. However, they have been maintaining close contacts with practically all the major political parties including the government.

Should this mean that Comrade Prachanda is swinging the Nepali politics his way and will continue to do so until the talks resume?

Political parties of various shades demand peace. The government is longing for that. The Maoists have never said that they will not come to the table. But where is peace if they all were committed for peace?

What factors in effect impeding the peace process to resume?

Keep on guessing.

Koirala's secret meeting with Chinese envoy!

Kathmandu: Congress President Girija Prasad Koirala's India sojourn continues to trigger speculations on his contact with the Maoists.

Of course, he himself would also make public capital from his talks with Indian leaders. Wonder, however, why there is so little publicity about his secret meeting here with the Chinese Charge de' Affaires, Mr. Wang, immediately after his India trip?

What transpired in between the two is not known; however, Congress sources attach great importance to this exclusive tête-à-tête in between Koirala and Mr. Wang.

No wonder if Koirala is invited to Beijing for a "friendly" trip soon.

Is India meeting China through the kind courtesy of President Koirala and that too in Kathmandu?

The meeting must have been an interesting one loaded with politics indeed.

Or is it that Koirala wishes now to distance himself with India by securing close proximity with neighboring China?

Koirala is learnt to have invited the Chinese envoy at his Mandikhatar residence on Sunday afternoon.

Unconfirmed sources have told the Telegraph weekly that President Koirala met the Japanese Ambassador Tuesday evening and the meeting is learnt to have continued for hours and hours.

US assistance has HR element attached

-US Ambassador James F. Moriarty, Nepal

Kathmandu: The newly accredited United States Ambassador to the Nepal Court, James F. Moriarty, in his maiden press conference held Tuesday afternoon has categorically stated that with the change of guards at the Embassy, the US policy towards Nepal will not change and that his country will continue to extend support to this Himalayan Kingdom as usual.

"I wish to see a peaceful, prosperous and democratic Nepal", the Ambassador continued.

Talking on the US assistance to Nepal, Ambassador Moriarty made it abundantly clear that his country's assistance on economic development of the country far exceeded the amount allocated for the security sector.

"In our assistance to Nepal, the Human Rights factor is always there and that we condemn both the government forces and the Maoists for their HR violations as and when they occur", said the Ambassador.

As regards the India's role in the Maoists issue, the US envoy did say that he saw India's greater role for geopolitical reasons. He also said that the US administration has time and again reminded the Indian authorities to be of some support to Nepal in settling the overly stretched Maoists imbroglio.

"India now understands that Nepal's Maoists issue does have its impact on their own security", held the Ambassador.

Asked how the US will treat the Maoists of the Nepal establishment lifted the terrorist tag from the Maoists insurgency, the Ambassador said that the US would watch their activities seriously and then only can decide on how to take the changed insurgency?

"We have lost two of our staffs at the hands of the Maoists which forces us to have a comfortable distance with them", added Moriarty.

To a query on Chinese stance on the Maoists, Ambassador Moriarty opined that he had the knowledge that Chinese were avoiding making any overtures that might complicate the Maoists issue.

"All constitutional forces must come together in order to press the Maoists to come to the table", concluded Ambassador Moriarty.

" Ma Nepalma Shanti Ra Prajatantra Sthapit Bhayeko Dekhna Chanchu", is what Moriarty said in Nepali.

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