I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Maoists to assert presence

Kathmandu: As chinks in the coalition government's already fragile armor continue to widen speculation on its longevity begun on day one of its formation become only naturally rife. This becomes the primary cause of the public skepticism that it is this government that will prove panacea to the country's mounting problems. Already Deuba is said to be facing challenges from a bureaucracy whose loyalty has been made dubious over the years of politicization. This no doubt effects speedy implementation of cabinet decisions what affects the cabinet more is that the several parties that their components constitute have taken several standpoints in contradiction to the cabinet ones.

It is not surprising therefore that nonpartisan cabinet member Dr. Mohammad Mohsin has been appointed spokesperson for the cabinet while others have been asked to shut-up on government decisions on security matters. Dr. Mohsin also has been included in the high level political committee that is to take charge of talks with the Maoists. It is his inclusion now in the all party-cabinet committee to oversee decisions made by the cabinet on the basis of common minimum program that is apparently to be the bone of contention. After all, Mohsin's non-party status has been purposely projected by the political parties and the partisan media as evidence that he is a "Royal nominee". And so he must be opposed for sake of party credentials "against regression'.

These potential sources of conflagration within the cabinet suggest that when and if the expected cabinet break-up will take place, it will be done also on the plea of Royal intervention. It is another matter that the constitution does not recognize the matter of Royal nominees in cabinet and it is Deuba that Mohsin is responsible to.

This leaves limited choices for the Prime Minister. He must frst consolidate his hold over his own party and have the requisite organizational strength to cope with the expected organizational onslaught of particularly, the UML in his cabinet.

It is not that things seem difficult for this given the varying standpoints of competing opinions in the UML itself. It is not only in Deuba's own party that the chinks are showing, senor UML party men have begun voicing differences publicly about what government should or should not do and, more importantly perhaps, what that the party should do.

Obviously these do not reflect well on the cabinet's primary task of creating an environment congenial to the holding of elections. While the media appears oblivious to this, the Maoists seem to have done well to cash in upon this.

As things stand, whatever the status of under-the-table contacts between government and the insurgents, the Maoists do well to enthuse the public clamor for talks while simultaneously heightening their terrorist presence in the urban areas including Kathmandu.

It is predictable therefore that Maoists pressure will build through as increase in violence that successfully propagates Maoists efficacy.

A government incoherent in its public defense seemingly on purpose will serve more to enthuse the clamor for peace talks fueled also by media publicity and supposed civic society activities.

Inevitably, this will demand cohesion on pat of government. This will be Deuba's immediate challenge.

Koirala's crucial role in tackling Maoists issue

Kathmandu: NC president Girija Prasad Koirala is engaged in a job that has to do with the monarchy.

He is currently touring district head quarters in order to convince his party cadres that it is not the political parties but the monarch who is creating troubles in the country.

How his cadres have taken his vitriolic remarks against the King is any body's guess. However, he is determined to proceed alone criticizing the monarchy come what may.

In doing so, Koirala is guided by two factors: firstly, deriding at the monarch and that too in series will enhance his credibility among the masses who would provide him plus points for being the one and the only Nepali politician who could do so without fearing Royal wrath. Secondly, he could be doing so in order to send messages across the nation that his movement against was kicking and alive and that he will not compromise with the King even if his partners in the movement against regression abandoned him much the same way the UML did some time back.

How Koirala and his inner coterie think of his tours to the districts is not known. However, what is for sure is that not so many people in the valley or even in the districts know that a sort of movement is currently on under the aegis of president Koirala against regression.

The fact is that the movement against regression is in a fractured and punctured state and that had it not been the energetic leadership of Koirala, the said movement would have already dies a premature death.

Thanks Koirala that he is reminding the lay men that the movement was alive even if it were counting its last breath.

But then there is a visible change in Koirala's tone regarding the Maoists issue. Recall the days when Koirala returned from Delhi, he used to proudly announce that he and he alone was enough to settle the Maoists issue for good and that he enjoyed international support in his mission.

However, Koirala suddenly knew his political standing that since he were not the nation's prime minister and hence all that he could do is to assist any process that were aimed at bringing the insurgents to the table and nothing more than that.

These days Koirala says "let's all do it but not that I will do it alone".

As a senior politician of the country, Koirala must be heard, say analysts. Koirala's experience have got to be used for the benefit of the nation, add matured analysts.

Yet another section of the political scientists say that when Koirala so confidently claims that he could sort out the Maoist issue all alone then there must be some thing that makes him to speak so confidently and thus his confidence have got to be tested. Analysts hasten to add that Koirala could be talking sense for he is speaking these confidence loaded languages upon his return from New Delhi.

Undenyingly, India has a role to play in Nepal's Maoists issue. Perhaps the Indian leaders could have hinted Koirala in Delhi that they were interested in playing their role. That the Indian authorities could have made it clear to Koirala that they wished a role in the Maoists issue becomes clear from Koirala's own assertions that he has been assured of the needed Indian support in that regard. But what Koirala has yet not revealed as to what type of role the Indian authorities wish to play in Nepal vis-à-vis the Maoists? Koirala is yet to divulge what were the Indian agenda or what could be their agenda at time of the talks, if at all it were to resume?

That Indian role was important in this issue is unquestionable. Fortunately or unfortunately, each and every Nepali now understands that the Maoists issue will not move an inch in the absence of Indian sagacity. The United Kingdom, the United State of America and a host of other friendly countries admit this fact.

Ambassador Moriarty was quick to admit this hard reality which he ventilated last week at a press conference but he did so with proper diplomatic finesse and took the advantage of outgoing Indian Ambassador's statement wherein he had admitted that Nepali Maoists have had linkages with the Indian Maoists and that such linkages were a threat to Indian security as well.

There are so many things which Koirala is yet to reveal. Analysts presume that this time the Indian leaders could have spoken their mind to Koirala on the Maoists.

Isn't it the time that the establishment under Deuba extract clues from Koirala's vast experience and from his tête-à-tête with the Indian leaders?

If peace is restored, what is the harm in seeking Koirala's good offices?

Whither Deuba Government!

Kathmandu: The four party coalition government headed by Sher Bahadur Deuba might collapse any moment from now if not handled with care.

While the smaller partners in the coalition, for example, the RPP and the NSP, have no say in the cabinet presumably, all that is being done or not done is due to the big-fight that is on in between the party led by the prime minister and the UML.

The fact is that the UML is playing foul and appears in a mood to press Deuba so hard that he might either prefer to yield to their innumerable political demands or resign out of sheer mental tension.

The fact is also that the UML is eying elections and is presumed to have already collected the required amount. Thanks the mechanism devised by the finance minister prior to the declaration of the budget that the party now can face the elections and that money will not be a problem at all.

Not very surprising therefore that the UML this time agreed to content itself with some ministries that in the eyes of the lay men were not that lucrative. However, the fact is that the UML occupies those ministries which mean much so far as monetary benefits are concerned.

For example, the ministries of labor, finance and industry and commerce are supposedly milking cows and the UML knows how to milk.

On yet another front the UML is pressing the government very hard. It is the Maoists issue wherein the party led by Deuba and the party led by Madhav Nepal differ.

While on the one hand the UML would wish the government to announce a ceasefire unilaterally and lift the red corner notice and terrorist tag from the Maoists insurgency at the earliest, on the other, Deuba would wish to do the needed homework prior to the announcement of the talks with the Maoists.

In doing so the UML apparently wishes to send signals to the Maoists quarters that it were this party that were really concerned for the Maoists issue. However, the fact could be entirely different. Logically, if the Maoists come to the table and fortunately agree to join the national political mainstream and fight the elections, in that case, it would be the UML which will have to loose votes in the villages and the districts. This would mean that the Maoists will cut the UML votes and not those of the congress and of the RPP.

This the UML knows but yet daringly encourages the Maoists to join the mainstream politics. Question could be asked as to whether the UML call for the Maoists is a genuine or a fishy one?

But then yet analysts find no clue to suspect the very credentials of the UML leadership so far as their preference for talks with the Maoists is concerned. Unless it is proved, the UML possesses the right to enjoy the benefit of doubt.

Nevertheless, the UML has so far remained unable to hide its preference that the congress remain divided. Understandably, a divided Congress till the elections is a bonus for the UML by all means. If elections are held by chance and the congress remains a divided house until then, the UML will emerge as a party that would sweep the elections in its favor. However, it is not that easy as is being made of.

The fact is that the UML under Madhav Nepal's leadership too is a divided house. Reports have it that stalwarts like Woli and Gautam have already initiated mechanisms that ultimately tarnishes the image of their known detractor-Mr. Nepal, who totally ignored them at time of the selection of the candidates to be sent to the Deuba cabinet. Insiders of the UML say that most of the ministers now in the cabinet were the yes-men of Madhav Nepal.

The manner some media close to the party have suddenly begun challenging the very credentials of minister Raghu Ji Pant on the issue of Lumbini Overseas Company that is dealing with the workers to be sent to Korea under a quota does hint that a very powerful section of the UML itself is hell bent on exposing minister Pant indicating that the minister could have struck fishy deals with the said company for party coffers.

The minister is currently in a row with the company and there is a tussle in between the minister and the company for reasons that still remain shrouded in mystery.

Luckily, strongman Madhav Nepal is in Korea at the moment.

Deuba's slow speed in moving the peace process forward and the UML's extra interest taken in regard to the Maoists issue is puzzling indeed.

What is more puzzling is Dr. Mohsin question as to what the prime minister means when he says that he was ready to acquire a posture wherein he could exhibit his utmost flexibility in the talks with the Maoists.

The UML prefers maximum flexibility to be shown by the government. The state says it would do so but not cross the limits of constitutional monarchy and multi-party democracy. The UML suggests that if need be the government should search options even by ignoring the boundaries of the 1990 constitution. The government says that it can't.

The deadlock thus continues.

UML's minister looking after finance says the talks with the Maoists were round the corner. Prachanda says he does not see the possibility of talks at the moment. Other political parties see yes in Prachanda's no. Deuba opines that better late than never, he would go in for talks only if he became sure of positive results.

The puzzle thus continues.

Prachanda's no to talks is positive

Kathmandu: The Maoist supremo comrade Prachanda says talks with this government were not possible. He, however, does not say that doors were closed for talks suggesting that should the government heed to their demands for talks, his party would not mind in resuming the talks.

Though the government and the Maoists maintain that it would take enough time to sit in the talks. However, reliable sources opine claim that the government has been in touch with the Maoists through the use of various available channels.

That the government is ready for talks and that the talks will he held shortly becomes clear from the indication provided by minister Bharat Mohan Adhikari who said in Biratnagar the other day that talks will be held with the Maoists within a month or so.

Minister Adhikari's confidence does hint that all is moving well so far as the talks with the Maoists is concerned. Clearly, had the Maoists opposed the talks they would have refuted to the claims being so confidently made by minister Adhikari. They have not done so for some exclusive reasons.

The Maoists themselves are very much in favor of talks. All that they need is the UN mediation or involvement in the talks as a guarantor. The government opposes the UN mediation whereas its one powerful constituent, the UML, favors the UN mediation.

Add to this, president Koirala too is in favor of the UN at the talks but has clearly told the UN that her presence is what was needed at time of the talks.

Interestingly, the entire European community is in favor of the UN mediation. The United States of America differs with the European views.

Puzzling indeed.

Be that as it may, time is running out. The Maoists have stepped up their violent activities presumably to pressurize the establishment for the talks. The government is in favor of talks but why is the delay in the resumption of the talks is a surprising phenomenon.

Sahara air flight from September

Kathmandu: Come September 2004, Nepal's Tribhuwan International Airport, TIA, is all set to greet the landing of the Sahara Air, India.

Joy Dewan, the GSA for Sahara Air for Nepal, beamingly says that the airlines will land in Kathmandu practically every day.

The airline has a capacity of 168 and is a wide-bodied jet-Boeing 737-800.

Dewan hopes that with the landing of Sahara Air in Kathmandu on a daily basis will come as a blessing to the sagging travel and trade business and to the declining economy of the country.

"It would boost the hotel occupancy rates and also contribute to the national exchequer in a variety of ways", adds Joy Dewan who is concurrently the GSA for Qatar Airways as well.

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