I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Deuba begins on wrong foot

Kathmandu: The dramatic appointment of Sher Bahadur Deuba as prime minister last week has done several things at the same time. It has removed the nearly month long vacuum in government with an appointment of a parliamentary party which constituted government prior to the October 4, 2002 Royal move. It has put in office a party agitating in the streets in opposition to the move claiming reinstatement as the only correction to the 2002 aberration. It has cut the wind from the other five party agitation that has been exposed in its inability to name its prime ministerial candidate which was the bone of contention now made wide open to the public and because of this made ridiculous the rationale of the five party move.

Of course, Deuba will seek to capitalize on his reinstatement. But the fact is that he has been fixed for failing in this obligation to conduct constitutionally mandated elections on the basis of which he dissolved parliament and rehired under Article 127 after a crucial interregnum of twenty months in which the constitutional monarch sought a consensus candidate to head a national government. Deuba’s appointment is so far the closest claimant to such. Outside the Girija Congress he claims to have the support of the UML the RPP and the Sadbhawana, which combined, would compose a decisive majority of the dissolved parliament.

Deuba success will be in how he materializes this support and garners participation from other political forces outside parliament, firstly. Secondly, his success will depend on how his talks with the Maoists to remove impediments will conclude. Lastly, of course, his ability to conduct the elections he aborted will have to be tested.

It is certainly not a smooth sailing for Deuba too. The fact that Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh was not received by the much tipped foreign ministerial candidate B.B.Thapa indicates that party pressures would have worked to put Thapa off the list meaning that Deuba is under much pressure within his party and from the party’s he is supposed to woo to leave the portfolios dangling in order to seek their participation. Compulsions of organizational advantage of this sort in the very first place resulted in his dismissal and the failure of the last parliament to provide a national solution to mounting national problems.

Already the UML agenda for participation has a hesitant itinerary. The ambitious Madhav Nepal sees advantage in distant from outright participation while his competitors in the party squabble over rather unconditional participation or a minimum action plan on the basis of which to participate.

These riders have at the every outset put Deuba on the wrong foot and delayed the making of this government which by default influences the RPP rider that its participation is forthcoming only when the UML will help lend its presence for a majority. In that sense, the RPP outside of negotiating portfolios makes UML participation and not just support key to the success of the Deuba appointment.

And then there is the Maoist issue. It shouldn’t be forgotten that Deuba was dismissed in his second and last term because the Maoists precipitated divergent strategies in the last parliament making it untenable for Deuba who came to post elbowing his mentor Girija Koirala on grounds of talks with the Maoists. It is not necessary that the Maoists with whom his party is already said to have had talks will kowtow to Deuba who has obliged them previously with public standpoints favoring a constituent assembly.

The fact is that the current constitution talks of reforms as a monopoly of the parliament and elections can only be held to parliament under this constitution.

Incompetent Prime Minister S.B.Deuba

Kathmandu: With Sher Bahadur Deuba’s elevation to the post of the country’s prime minister last week, questions are being raised on how to take his fresh appointment?

Is it the restoration of the sacked Deuba government or a new appointment?

Detractors of Sher Bahadur Deuba have reasons to believe that his appointment was not the restoration of his sacked government but a new government formed under Article 127 and hence, according to them, this establishment was the mere continuation of governments of his predecessors and hence prolongation of the act of regression.

This set forwards the theory that how Deuba’s appointment could be considered as his reinstatement when the monarch has been allowed to act on his own and that the monarch has not taken care of the parliamentary parties?

However, Deuba has different reasons to be happy for his new appointment. He says, " Look it was article 127 that had been used to sack my establishment. Fortunately, it is the same article that has been used to elevate my ranks to the current post which amply proves that my government has been restored".

While some political parties out rightly reject Deuba’s self-consoling contention, then on the other, some consider Deuba’s appointment as the nation’s prime minister to have been an act directed at minimizing the act of regression. This set considers that at least a democratically elected prime minister has been selected this time around, which was much better than the governments led by Chand and Thapa.

Nevertheless, there has been a clash of interest in and among the five party alliances in taking the Deuba establishment.

For rival congress led by Girija Prasad Koirala, Deuba’s appointment by the King once again is not a change people wanted to see but an act that have even strengthened the acts of regression. For the congress, the monarch’s fresh action does hint that the King will continue to act in a manner that suits to his political interests under different cover until a new parliament is in existence.

Notably, for the UML and its leaders like Madhav Nepal, Ishwar Pokhrel and more specially K.P.Woli, Deuba’s appointment to the same post does amount to some positive development which is what the five party agitation demanded from the King.

"The constitutional aberrations that had come into being on October 4, have at least been minimized", opine the UML leaders.

The general impression of the UML leaders is that it would now be futile to continue with the agitation that has lost its steam and direction as well indefinitely. Most of the UML stalwarts now conclude that the opportunity provided to Deuba by the King have got to be utilized by being in the government.

The UML’s penchant to get inducted in the Deuba cabinet is guided more by a sense of teaching President Koirala a memorable lesson for the latter’s treacherous act that did not allow UML leader Madhav Nepal to become a consensus candidate for the prime ministerial post as demanded by the King on a definite time frame. The UML concludes that it was Koirala’s political maneuverings that restricted the FPA members not only to delete Mr. Nepal’s name but even managed the period to lapse for fear of Mr. Nepal being picked up as the nation’s next chief of the executive.

Not only this, the UML leaders now believe that had Madhav’s name been pushed by the FPA on that very specific date, the King could not have denied for understandable constitutional reasons.

The fact is that the King was all set to greet Mr. Nepal as the next prime minister despite the fact that the UML leader by then had to be digested by the West and India as well.

If Deuba’s utterances were to be believed then what has got to be understood is that the King was not that unhappy with Madhav’s candidature which meant that had Madhav been the consensus candidate of the FPA, the King would have no plausible reasons to reject the FPA nominee.

But Koirala’s conspiracy damaged the prospects of Madhav Nepal from becoming the prime minister which made Deuba easier to fit into the shoes of the new prime minister.

The UML knew Koirala’s conspiracy hatched against it, better late than never. It is not surprising therefore that now the UML is all set to support the Deuba set albeit with certain political conditions. Deuba understands UML’s compulsions and would pleasingly wish to satisfy the UML demands, some immediately and the rest at later dates.

What is also important here to ask whether the King by appointing Deuba as the nation’s prime minister has realized his blunder and as a mark to correct his political mistake reappointed Deuba or he has simply brought him to the post that was remaining vacant for so many weeks?

Analysts say, there is both the realization factor and providing the nation with a prime minister. The fact is that the King appears to have realized his political blunder by inviting Deuba to take up the post which was snatched of him some two years ago. The King might differ with what analysts claim. However, the circumstantial events do tell that the victim has been awarded his rightful post.

Should this mean that Deuba’s appointment this time has proven that Deuba is not a lost case but a competent prime minister but not the one as dubbed by the King some two years back?

Well, analysts say, Deuba will have to prove now by his democratic deeds that he is a competent one and not the one as reiterated by the monarch.

Much will also depend on how Koirala and his party behave with Deuba and his new set up.

Diplomats urge UML to support Deuba establishment
Galaxy of Ambassadors encircle UML leader

Kathmandu: At a Danish embassy reception last Saturday, the UML leader, Madhav Nepal, became the center of attraction for all those attending the diplomatic gathering.

Admittedly, Mr. Nepal drew a crowd around him, which comprised of Ambassadors from Russian Federation, Thailand, Bangladesh, Egypt, Norway, Charge de’ Affaires of the U.S. Embassy and the UN resident representative plus the Pakistani and British diplomats.

The Nepalese leaders who were in the crowd were Pashupati Rana of the RPP. NPC vice chairman, Dr. Sharma later joined the group when he could notice that Madhav Nepal is being provided importance and significance on the occasion. Needless to say, the Danish Charege De Affaires, Mr. Gert Meinecke occasionally attended to the crowd to listen to what Madhav nepal had to say on the events that followed after the Five Party Alliance failed to send his name to the Palace.

By and large, the attending diplomatic crowd appealed Madhav Nepal to behave in a manner that suited to a responsible party of the sort of the UML and save the country from going to the dogs.

The Ambassador of the RF, Valery Nazarov tentatively acted as if he were the chairman of the mini-talkathon.

Much ahead of this convergence of the Ambassadors, this scribe asked the Communist leader whether he could name the person who damaged his prospects from becoming the nation’s prime minister.

"Ask President Koirala", is what Madhav Nepal told this scribe.

Later, Mr. Nepal was encircled by a dozen of high ranking diplomats who preferred to listen to Mr. Nepal’s immediate plans and the prospects of the UML party joining the Deuba establishment.

"We have certain conditions to be accepted by prime minister Deuba prior to joining or even supporting the government by remaining outside the government", said a somber Madhav Nepal who could not hide his anger towards the FPA that made his prospects bleak under the instigation of Koirala.

To yet another question of this scribe, Madhav Nepal, however, maintained that his party will continue to support the cause of the FPA as and when there was a threat to democracy.

Most of the Ambassadors appealed Mr. Nepal to understand the gravity of the situation and take measures that brought back normalcy in the country and also suggested him to participate in the system of governance which, according to them, would enhance the prestige and the very credibility of the Deuba set while dealing with the insurgents.

While these conversations were in progress, Mr. Nepal suddenly turned towards the U.S representative, Mr. Boggs, and asked whether his country would have accepted a government led by the UML?

The US diplomat preferred to avoid responding to Mr. Nepal’s question.

But then yet the manner the UML leader was appreciated and honored by the galaxy of foreign diplomats does tell that the UML could garner greater support from the international powers than the congress provided the party opted to reject the sickle and hammer from their red flag.

All in all, a sort of moral pressure was built on Madhav Nepal which time permitting will have its positive impact on the overall politics of the country in the near future.

The UML leader, Madhav Nepal, by all angles is now a matured politician who enjoys tremendous recognition in the comity of nations based in the capital.

Maoists likely to support those opposing Deuba

Kathmandu: A new political polarization presumably is in the making, which might take its formal shape in a week or so.

The new equation is being talked to house those likeminded ones who support Deuba’s new set up or who oppose that.

Understandably, Koirala will lead such an equation that champions the cause of his position that takes Deuba’s reentry into the government apparatus as the constinuation of the act of regression.

The other group undenyingly involve those political parties who directly or indirectly support Deuba’s government and aspire to get inducted in the government at a later stage.

Clearly, Koirala will lead the opposition enjoying support from the NMKP and United people’s Front and perhaps will entertain tacit help and required support from the Maoists who very recently have dubbed Prime Minister Deuba as a personality who has been entrusted with the prime ministerial job to "shield" the monarch.

If one were to believe what Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai has penned his comments in a broadsheet daily on Deuba and his new government, what becomes clear is that the Maoists will lend their entire support to those parliamentary parties who will oppose the King’s new moves.

To counter this vehement opposition, Deuba is left with no options other than to invite the heavy weight, the UML, either in the cabinet itself or at least get assurances from the party that he would enjoy the UML support all along his tenure. Needless to say, Deuba is being assisted by the RPP-Rana faction and the faction of the Sadbhavana-Mandal. Time permitting, Deuba might induct some other smaller political parties having no representation in the parliament apparently to provide his set a better and all-party look.

The UML too wishes that the Deuba cabinet housed all the political parties represented in the parliament.

How the two contending forces will neutralize each other politically will have to be watched.

But then sources close to the Koirala congress and some from the UML say that the visiting Indian minister suggested Koirala not to create hurdles for Deuba and embrace for the elections and ensure a new parliament. Similarly, Natwar Singh is supposed to have told the NSP-Anandi Devi to join Deuba’s cabinet and accept the elections in an easy manner.

The minister supposedly supported the King’s decisions and assured the King that India was behind the King in his moves taken of late. What transpired in between the King and the Minister for all along thirty five minutes and that too one-to-one is what is causing panic in the minds of those who have been opposing the monarch’s moves even after Deuba’s reappointment.

Unconfirmed reports have it that the Indian minister apparently told Deuba that India might take up the Maoists issue in all seriousness the reflection of which was made abundantly clear when India a day prior to the minister trip to Nepal arrested about a dozen of top-ranking Maoists leaders.

Now back to Dr. Bhattarai article: Dr. Bhattarai opines that the need of the hour was to forge a sort of working relationship in between the agitating parliamentary and the people’s oriented political parties in order to expose the illusionary appointment of Deuba.

All said and done, Prachanda’s preference for talks perhaps remains valid under the aegis of the UN while the insurgency concurrently is more energetically engaged in kidnappings, abductions and the likes presumably to press the Deuba establishment to listen to their demands.

Notably, if the Maoists continue to hate Deuba even as of today, however, what they forget is that it was during Deuba’s tenure they had come to the talks.

Deuba says he will exhibit utmost flexibility should the Maoists come to the negotiation table.

Let’s see how Deuba seduces the Maoists for talks or in what conditions the other side will opt the talks.

How the India factor will come to play its role also will have to be carefully watched.

Eaves Dropper

Influence of foreign moneys in the media? How else does one buy the abrupt dismissal of Bhola Rana from a Nepali Press Institute program? Certainly not dearth of funds. Certainly not incompetence or lack of professionalism.

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