I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Seeds of discord

Kathmandu: Government is going to take longer in the making. Prime Minister Deuba must at least appear to cash in on his "reinstatement" claim. The UML must appear to make organizational gains within its "anti-regressional" standpoint, which it says has been partially corrected. The RPP must await the nature of the UML participation to justify its presence in the cabinet. The other minor parties must focus on the "all-representative" nature of the cabinet formation which given ti some scope of representation.

Deuba organizationally must use the cabinet to retain his support within his own party by not appearing to give too much to the UML in his primary responsibility of forming a national government. His first two choices, Bimlendra Nidhi from Terai and Prakash Man Singh from Kathmandu, reflect the organization orientation as much as it does also the need for clean figures from his previously much tainted political support base.

For the UML the task is even harder. At least Deuba as Prime Minister has retained his personal dominance over the party from government. Prime Ministerial aspirant Madhav Kumar Nepal can't join government, can't increase competition within his own party by allowing new Deputy Prime Ministerial challenges from such figures as Bam Dev Gautam and K.P.Oli who represent the all too eager section advocating unconditional UML participation. Having kept him and this competition out of the cabinet, Madhav Nepal must cobble up a seemingly representative UML cabinet strength that can both unite and strengthen its representation in the UML.

Pashupati Rana's RPP has made it easy from senior participation particularly after the Thapa section has chosen to follow up homework on a separate party. Chances are that Deuba will attempt representation from this section too preventing a possible Thapa-Girija alignment.

There are chances of even former deputy prime minister Badri Mandal agreeing to a ministerial part in the national government sharing his berth with competitions Hridayash Tripathi whose Sadbhawana splinter has yet to disassociate with the Girija led agitation.

Clearly, staffing is merely one of the many problems besetting the cabinet formation and appears the easiest.

The more difficult ones are to do with the need to change public postures from standpoints adopted during agitation to standpoints to be opted for upon assumption of constitutional responsibility.

For Deuba, it is not just his claim of reinstatement tat is hard to sell since no other party besides his own supports the theory. The more technical one arises from the manner with which he has had to swallow his demand for a constituent assembly made publicly on the streets in course of agitation. It is highly likely that this turn around will affect the projected talks with the Maoists whose agreement becomes fundamental to scheduled elections.

For the UML its anti-regression changes, its several point programs the latest of which is the post Lucknow Road Map of Madhav Nepal must now be gleaned over on grounds of a minimized common program. On all likelihood, the UML will find that pressing Deuba too hard for the reinstatement of locally elected offices or the new appointments so it as also constituent assembly standpoints and the demands for the abrogation of legislation deemed "regressive" in the past twenty months.

In real fact it is these standpoints that contribute to the seed of discord in a cabinet yet to be formed.

US two-speak on Madhav's appointment

Kathmandu: Rumors were afloat some two months ago that though the constitutional monarch favored Madhav Nepal, the UML leader, for the Prime Ministerial post but then he could not proceed to do so for fear of how the countries of the developed West and neighboring India will react to such an appointment in this Himalayan Kingdom.

This rumor got more or less substantiated when the Indian Ambassador, Shyam Saran, secretly met the communist leader, Madhav Nepal, at the Hotel Everest and convinced Mr. Nepal not to dream the prime ministerial post for some more time to come.

Yet another rumor that Nepal's donor community, including the lone super power, would wish not to see the growth of the communists in this Himalayan Kingdom for fear of the fact that that would mean a virtual capture of the country by both the REDS in Singh Durbar and in the Jungles and thus the West apparently indicated the Palace not to lean in favor of the communist candidate, Madhav Nepal.

This means that Madhav Nepal's prospects of becoming of the country's prime minister this time around had been damaged not only by Koirala but by the unsubstantiated rumors circulated in the capital that the developed West would not take that very appointment in a good taste.

However, things have become different.

If one were to believe Madhav Nepal what he beamingly said to the Danish Charge de' Affaires at the Russian Embassy reception this Sunday then what becomes pretty clear is that the "allergy" what the US apparently possess for the communists, including the UML, is a misnomer.

Look what Madhav Nepal said to the Danish envoy.

" Well, I received a call from Janet Bouge one evening at my private residence. It was a call some time when the country was in the search of a new prime minister. Ms. Bouge informed me in clear terms that if Singh Durbar had a government led by the UML, the United States of America would take that appointment in an easy manner. We will not object to that."

Should this mean that the United States of America now considers the UML as a communist party as good as Koirala's congress or Pashupati Rana's RPP?

But why is this change in the US perception toward the UML? Has the UML changed of late? Does the US conclude that the communists housed in the UML were tooth-less snakes and that they have practically lost their previous dogmatic image?

While Mr. Madhav Nepal have reasons to rejoice over what Ms. Bogue told him over telephone, however, equally distressing is the fact that yet another US diplomat preferred to keep silence when only recently the communist leader asked him whether his country would have accepted a communist government led by the UML in Singh Durbar?

Robert Boggs, a US diplomat considered to be an expert on South Asian affairs, was the one who opted not to answer Madhav Nepal's blunt question at a Danish embassy reception only a few days ago.

Which one is the US official position regarding Madhav Nepal's question?

If Ms. Bogue is talking what Madhav Nepal said the other day, then why Mr. Boggs preferred not to respond to the communist leaders' simple question?

Be that as it may, what implies from the two separate events is that the US is in a dilemma on how to take the UML, the former firebrand communists.

UML desperate to join cabinet; advances harsh conditions

Kathmandu: Politics is not bed of roses.

By this time Prime Minister Deuba must have realized this adage. Talking and bringing them to real actions are two entirely different things.

Prime Minister Deuba though is serious in providing a formal all party shape to his government, however, the hidden fact is that those who prompted him at time of his appointment are putting harsh conditions and a poor Deuba is left with no options other than to comply to their dictates.

If he yields to the prospective political partners in the government, Deuba has so many things to lose. If he does not, chances are brighter that his government too will have the same fate as his predecessors had in the not too distant past.

That Deuba will yield becomes much more clear from the fact that if he does not do that, he will instantly come under the attack of his political rival, President Koirala, who considers Deuba's appointment as a continuation of regression and nothing else. If he does not, then that would mean that he would have to console himself by housing some less influential political men collected from smaller parties and calling it an all-party set.

The fact is that until and unless the UML joins the government, Deuba's government will continue to remain a sort of lame-duck one. Even if the RPP joins the government, the Deuba cabinet will continue to lack needed credibility for varied reasons.

This means that Deuba will bring heaven down to earth to seduce the UML which is desperate in joining the cabinet but concurrently remains conscious of not losing its strict democratic disciplines and thus the party has pushed its conditions to be accepted by Deuba prior to its joining the establishment.

But then Deuba's hands are tied. For, some of the demands put forth by the UML has some thing to do with the curtailment of the King's powers which presumably the latter managed during Chand's premiership in his personal favor.

The UML is not going to settle for less than bending Deuba to exhibit his democratic credentials or else the party could leave Deuba in the cold.

However, the UML too knows Deuba's compulsions and limitations. The party better understands that even if it were a government of theirs, they could have found themselves in the same hot-seat wherein Deuba is in today.

Poor Deuba neither can displease the monarch who appointed him so graciously not can he misbehave with a party that saved him from being drowned in the black sea.

UML intentions are not that bad enough, admits Deuba, but concurrently assured the UML that every thing will be alright when they join the government.

The UML prefers not to exhibit its lust for power but is desperate in bouncing back to power, which gets reflected, from the utterances of some of the UML leaders while talking to newsmen.

"The UML's harsh conditions are nothing but a ploy to press Deuba to the wall and compel him to offer a good number of ministerial portfolios and that too lucrative ones", said a Deubaite to this scribe on conditions of anonymity.

The UML has reasons to press Deuba. Firstly, the party has taken a courageous step while declaring its support to Deuba's new regime. Secondly, in doing so, the UML has irritated its friends with whom it generally met at Ratnapark for agitation against regression. Thirdly, the moment the UML joins the cabinet, the Deuba set up will instantly equip itself with the needed credibility and legitimacy. Fourthly, if politics were an art of compromise and bargain, what was the harm in squeezing the Deuba government for extracting greater benefits for the party?

More so, the UML pressure on Deuba is guided more by its eyes on the elections as and when it would be held. If it is so, then what could be best than to occupy significant ministries so that every thing goes smoothly at times of the elections.

Deuba knows UML's trick but can't afford to annoy its Herculean partner for varied political reasons.

It remains to be seen as to how Deuba convinces the UML or on what concessions the UML joins the cabinet?

Be that as it may, if the UML really sticks to its demands as solid rock then it is only the constitutional monarch who could rescue Deuba's sinking boat. But will the King agree to handover the powers pertaining to the country's bureaucracy back to the executive, which he managed through an ordinance at time of Prime Minister Chand?

King's sagacity and magnanimity can only save Deuba from again being dubbed as an incompetent prime minister.

A testing time for the monarch as well. Analysts hope the King will oblige Deuba with his magnanimity.

Telegraph adds: Madhav Nepal has a rough time now. He is in a fix. The issue is that a section in the UML prefer joining the cabinet at the earliest. The other says that unless Deuba agreed to satisfy the UML demands, the party has to wait.

How Madhav Nepal strikes a balance in between the two conflicting ideas will have to be watched.

Koirala's contradicting stances confuse

Kathmandu: President Koirala has plenty of reasons to be happy.

Firstly, he is pleased to see Deuba miserably failing to for a cabinet on his own. Secondly, for Koirala, his political rival Deuba's inability in having been able to bring in the UML support for his cabinet must have consoled his heart. Thirdly, it is no less a matter of pride for Koirala that the agitation he is leading is all kicking and alive although the UML has backed out from that.

An overly pleased President Koirala the other day declared from his home town that his party is now against the idea of a constituent assembly.

Koirala's volte face from his earlier stand which out and out favored the constituent assembly has surprised many a brains in Kathmandu's political circuit.

To recall, it was NC President Koirala who in effect brought this slogan in vogue presumably to send threatening signals to the monarch hinting him that should the monarch did not corrected his past constitutional blunders, the NC would not mind in changing its old political stance of adhereing to the prevalence of constitutional monarchy.

As a matter of fact, it was Koirala who told his student to go on the rampage who in turn shook Kathmandu's roads and walls with the slogans of republicanism.

For Koirala now those who advocate the theory of a constituent assembly must have been guided by national and international players and hence his party must reject the theory, a theory first pronounced by Koirala himself.

What he does, he does not speak. What he speaks, he does not do. This is Koirala's special characteristics.

Koirala had to reject the idea of the constituent assembly because those were being advocated by others, his competitors. The fact is that he can't tolerate competing ideas and thus he is now all against the idea pushed by his detractors.

"When the two guns are in operation, what is the guarantee that the elections to the constituent assembly will come in favor of the people?", is what Koirala is saying these days.

Analysts extract meaning from Koirala's utterances that he made in Biratnagar.

Analysts maintain that when Koirala says so, he is afraid of the possible chances that the results of the constituent assembly might enhance the indispensability of the Nepali monarchy thus making the monarchy much more effective than what it is today.

However, Koirala opines that he could think on those lines if the Maoists laid down their arms prior to the elections to the constituent assembly.

In sum, Koirala is in favor of constituent assembly and he is concurrently not.

Question could well be asked as to why Koirala is changing his stances? Who is influencing his political decisions?

TAF celebrating 50th Anniv

Kathmandu: The Nepal office of the Asia Foundation is celebrating its 50th Anniversary and its commitment to peace and development in Asia.

To mark the occasion, Dr. Barnett Baron, the interim President of the TAF, is expected to be in town. TAF sources say that apart from Dr. Barnett, some senior officers from headquarters will also attend the function.

In 2004, The Asia Foundation celebrates its 50th anniversary as a private, non-profit grant-making organization in the Asia-Pacific region. Since its founding in 1954, The Asia Foundation played a distinctive role as a responsive and trusted partner in the Asia and the Pacific.

The TAF collaborates with the public and private sectors to build leadership and strengthen institutions in Asia by helping to improve governance and law, expand economic reform and development, increase women's participation, and promote stable relations between countries of Asia.

With a network of 17 offices throughout Asia, an office in Washington, D.C., and its headquarters in San Francisco, the Foundation addresses these issues at both country and regional levels.

In 2003, the Foundation awarded more than $44 million in grants and distributed over 750,000 books and educational materials valued at almost $28 million throughout Asia.

SAFMA Regional Conference on gender and Media

Kathmandu: The South Asia Free Media Association, SAFMA, is organizing a two-day regional seminar in Kathmandu beginning June 25, this month.

The SAFMA Secretariat in Kathmandu states that about the strength of thirty leading South Asian women will converge in Kathmandu for this seminar.

The topic of the regional seminar, according to SAFMA secretariat, is Gender and Media.

Some twenty Nepal's women leaders belonging to various disciplines will attend the regional conference.

SAFMA states that most of the women attending the seminar will present their working papers on the occasion.

A day ahead of the regional conference, the SAFMA has planned to have a sort of National Conference on June 25 which is likely to pave the grounds of the regional conference beginning the next day.

The Secretary General of the SAFMA, Sambhu Shrestha, hopes the regional conference will come out with brilliant ideas and opinions that will go a long way in sensitizing men and women of the region on matters related to gender and media.

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