I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Dimming Deuba's chances
What other options?

Kathmandu: The UML's hard-to-get stance threatns the Deuba ministry whose rationale is based on an all party nature that can convincingly talk with the Maoists from a national standpoint. Despite assurances, Madhav Nepal's internal party politics plays well with his bargain as mush as it does to cover up the hidden agenda of UML-Maoists contacts that appear as yet unexposed to the public.

The UML is not alone in playing the Maoists with the system. Even Girija Koirala of the congress is known for his exploration of possibilities. The abrupt announcement of the haltage of his street agitation is linked with the rainy season by which way the agitation says it will go to the rural areas. The fact is that any headway that the agitation is to make in the countryside must do so with some understanding with the Maoists.

If the UML plays hard-to-get, the RPP will remain harder to get since its conditionality for its participation in government is based on a majority in the dissolved parliament.

The Deuba experiment will thus prove costly if it fails. The fact is that parties represented in the dissolved parliament have contributed to the formation of each government under Article 127. In this sense the King has stuck to the constitution despite allegations otherwise. Both Lokendra Bahadur Chand and Surya Bahadur Thapa were appointed with the accord of the parliamentary parties with an eye to the majority in the dissolved parliament. It is unfortunate that the partisan media coalesced with the political parties in the effort to pressure the King to follow the individual agenda of the political parties, which individually didn't command the majority of the dissolved parliament.

In line with this media inundation is the issue of the reappointment of Deuba. Deuba's party alone considers his appointment the lone correction of the alleged regression. The CPN (UML) deems it only a partial correction. The Girija-Congress, on the other hand, calls this step too a regression. Lost in these political standpoints whose commonality the media has portrayed, as regression is the practical constitutional fact that the first time since October 4, 2002, either Girija Koirala of the Nepali Congress or Madhav Nepal of the UML will not have blessed the appointment of Deuba, if the UML retrenches from its original support to Deuba.

The fact is that both Nepal and Koirala supported the Chand appointment and withdrew their support after he did not meet their individual agenda. The fact is that Girija backed Thapa by making Madhav Nepal's appointment untenable constitutionally. The fact is that discord in the five agitating parties prevented themselves from naming names for a Prime Minister facilitating Deuba's reappointment. The fact is that Deuba's appointment despite his claims otherwise is a reappointment under article 127 and by no means an acknowledgement by the King of his claim to office under the use that he recommended. By no constitutional means can the King allow an elected government to claim office on grounds of the postponement of scheduled elections. The King has by firing and hiring Deuba again allowed him a chance to form a national government on grounds of his chances of doing so in the absence of other parliamentary options publicly demonstrated by the discord in the five agitating parties. If he does not produce, what are the parliamentary options constitutionally justifiable? This is what public debate must concentrate upon. It is this debate that our partisan politics and partisan media will now avoid.

Outmaneuvering politics: Koirala takes the lead

Kathmandu: NC President Girija Prasad Koirala presumably has some strategic plans under his sleeves.

After a brief illness, the NC President has suddenly gained energy to move and that this time he is moving on his own.

His plans on how he will bring those into fruition though he has yet to make clear, however, what is for sure is that he will proceed this time alone come what may.

In the process, Koirala is supposed to, as he confidently claims, will sort-out the overly stretched Maoists issue once and for all.

In a daring speech made Monday afternoon, an exhausted President Koirala hinted his listeners and the partners in coalition against what they call "regression" that he was not yet a "spent" force and that he still can face the political challenges posed to him by the "movers and shakers" of Nepali politics.

The speech he made the other day appeared more concentrated on attacking the monarch than any thing else. But then yet, his famous speech could be analysed for the sake of our valued readers.

Firstly, his utterances do indicate that he is practically disturbed by his disturbed relations with the King more so after the latter appointed his bete noir, Sher Bahadur Deuba as the country's prime minister.

Secondly, what also becomes more than clear is that he possesses a sort of vengeance towards the King for what he believes that whatever political disturbances have happened in the country of late were all due to the lop-sided policies acquired by the Palace.

Thirdly, Koirala does not hide his growing "connections" with the insurgents and daringly claims that he was all able in himself to bring the Maoists to the table and that he can settle the issue for good.

Fourthly, he does not conceal his frustration over, firstly on the appointment of Deuba, a shock for him indeed and lately the UML leaving the street agitation to the mercy of the Almighty. His frustration is so high that he prefers not to talk of the two political stalwarts, Deuba and Madhav Nepal, which is very obvious.

However, Koirala confidently claims that till he was the commander of the agitation things will not deteriorate and that the agitation will finally bag success.

A more condensed analysis of what Koirala has hinted in his Monday speech speaks so many things at a time.

Surprising though it may appear, a Koirala who till the other day rejected the theory of going to the constituent assembly elections now suddenly favors the same. But why? Why is this abrupt change in his thinking? What factors could have made him to change his decision and that too all of a sudden? Who could have influenced his decision? National forces or some invisible extraneous forces?

It would take some time to know as to which individual or forces influenced his decisions so suddenly that for Koirala the question of constituent assembly no more remain a taboo? Till the other day he was talking that those who favor constituent assembly were doing so at the instigation of some hidden forces. His sudden volte face now in favor of constituent assembly demands attention and a probe as to which factors could have changed his minds in a day or two?

What is also significant is his clear perception that he can settle the Maoists issue in minutes. Does this mean that Koirala continues to be in close contacts with the Maoists leaders? Perhaps yes! He is in contact with the insurgents becomes clear from his statements that he so confidently makes all to know that "I will do it even if the King prefers to ignore the issue".

To recall, it was BJP minister, George Fernandez, a close friend of Koirala, who had facilitated Prachanda-Koirala talks in Delhi some two years ago. Since then, rumors have it, NC man Chakra Bastola, is meeting the Maoists leaders on behalf of Koirala. Perhaps it is this connection that remains yet kicking and alive which makes Koirala to speak so confidently about settling the Maoists issue for good.

"I wish to sound to the monarch that I have kept all the options open and that I can opt for a constituent assembly and am also open for a sort of referendum", is what Koirala said Monday.

"The King appears totally unconcerned to the every day killings of the civilians, the RNA men and the men from the police force", Koirala added.

The sum total of Koirala's speech is that he is against the King. He is against Deuba and Madhav Nepal.

This is not all, Koirala is not that happy with those countries who offered their words of support to the new Deuba government. Should this mean that he is against India, the United Kingdom and the members of the European Union who only recently congratulated Deuba on his appointment as Nepal's prime minister.

If this is so then question could also be asked on whom Koirala depend now to provide a tit-for-tat to all those who disappointed his maneuverings and supported his most hated-friend cum disciple-Deuba?

But then yet, if Koirala is really serious in settling the Maoists issue, he deserves commendations or else he would continue to be called as a "destructive brain" as he is being taken by men from within and without.

Conspiracies Galore!

Kathmandu: Nepal's conspiratorial politics is on the move.

Each and every political leader from the major political parties are virtually on the run to outmaneuver the other in order to reign supreme in the country's politics.

However, in the process, some have failed, some appear to fail and the rest are trying their best.

Not so many people knew that UML leader Madhav Nepal had been maintaining uninterrupted contacts with the Maoists top hats since he took up the Lucknow challenge last year.

A clever Koirala apparently knew of Madhav's internal designs and tried to outmaneuver Mr. Nepal from coming closer to the Maoists rebels but could not do so for being housed in the same boat that had been marching to fight a battle called regression in the deep blue sea having no end in sight.

Now that Madhav Nepal is out from the street agitation that centered on Ratnapark-to-Ratnapark-President Koirala is openly using his former channels and has claimed that he can and has the ability to settle the matter on his own.

Regarding Madhav Nepal, one could now say that of late he is a changed personality now.

He continues to be in a fix on whether to allow Deuba a free-hand in steering the nation or should he put hurdles in his way in order that the shaky government collapses of its own weight and allow it to die a premature death.

At yet another level, Madhav is playing double. Firstly, he is with Deuba and he is not with Deuba. That he is with Deuba gets reflected from his explicit words of support extended by his party to the Deuba's new set up. That he is not with Deuba also becomes clear from his reluctant behavior in joining the government of Deuba who is desperate in having the UML partners in his establishment in order to command credibility and needed legitimacy.

Cleaver Nepal knows that the moment his cadres join the establishment, Deuba will have an upper-hand in the scheme of country's politics and he is delaying the process of the party's entrance into the government.

But then the high-flying desires of some of the UML cadres have come in the way of Madhav. In addition to this, there has been a sort of rift in between the party's stalwarts on whom should be told to lead the UML set in government? Bharat Mohan Adhikari or Sahana Pradhan or even Bam Dev Gautam?

Undenyingly, Bam Dev can't be Madhav's choice for the latter know what it would mean and cost to him politically. Thus Bam Dev's name has already been deleted from the list. Mr. Adhikari is the real choice of Mr. Nepal on whom he trusts like any thing. However, the men in the minority camp have a distaste for Mr. Adhikari. Now the one left is Sahana Pradhan. If there is a clash in the names of Adhikari and Gautam, Mrs. Pradhan will lead the party's contingent in the cabinet.

Be that as it may, to conclude that Madhav is out of the agitation would be misplaced. He is in regular contact with his former agitation colleagues and a testimony to that got reflected last week when Mr. Nepal met secretly his old-friends at a Kopundole restaurant wherein he was politely suggested not to support the Deuba set. The idea was to let the Deuba establishment collapse in want of the UML support.

The idea if further analyzed contain the seed of yet another prime minister in the making. The fact is that Madhav Nepal was told by his colleagues that he should try for his own premiership than to go in support of Deuba.

Truly, if the UML denies support to Deuba, the latter's fate will be almost like those of his two predecessors and if it is so then the path is clear for Madhav's Prime Ministership.

This is what has been playing in the minds of Madhav Nepal and that's why he has not yet totally rejected his street friends.

Interestingly enough, the UML leader this time appears that he is really annoyed by the Indian establishment which, he considers apparently, was one factor of the many that damaged his prospects of becoming the country's prime minister. It is perhaps this annoyance with India that the UML leader for the first time has demanded from Deuba that he should think in favor of the abrogation of the controversial 1950 treaty—a primary demand of the Maoists.

This explains as to why the Maoists and the UML leader are close to each other. If Prachanda is not happy with the Indian stance for the latter taking stern actions against the insurgents residing in India then Madhav Nepal too expresses his annoyance by demanding the abrogation of the 1950 treaty.

However, how India will take up Madhav's fresh demand will have to be watched.

It is heartening to note that Koirala and Nepal were both close to the Maoists of late. How Deuba will snatch the initiatives from his political rivals will have to be carefully analyzed.

This speaks of the Maoist's well drawn strategy.

Maoist ideologue serves warning

Kathmandu: The Maoist ideologue, Dr. Babu Ram Bhatarai, has freshly reiterated that his party would not settle for less than elections to a constituent assembly.

Dr. Bhattarai, however, has said that though the idea of going to the constituent assembly might boomerang but yet his party was all ready to accept the verdict of the people thus coming from the elections to the assembly.

In saying so Dr. Bhattarai perhaps hints that the results of the constituent assembly might politically benefit the other rival camp, that is the monarchy as well.

Nevertheless, Dr. Bhattarai says that the minimum bottom-line for his party was still a constituent assembly but with no "conditions attached".

In an article printed lately perhaps in a broadsheet daily Tuesday, Dr. Bhattarai laments the abrupt change in stance of President Koirala who had hinted in Biratnagar that he would not favor elections to a constituent assembly come what may.

Dr. Bhattrai should now remain assured that Koirala, known for his changing stances as and when the climatic conditions change in Kathmandu, Monday afternoon has declared what Dr. Bhattarai would wish from him.

Certainly, Koirala's fresh posture would forcefully enhance Maoists demand for a constituent assembly now.

Dr. Bhattarai in the same article has warned all those who conclude that containing the Maoists would be an easier task if the monarchy and the parliamentary parties formed a sort of front and foght against the Maoists insurgency.

"If some one considers so then I would wish to sound them all that in that changed scenario, the idea of going to the constituent assembly will be a matter left to the pages of history and that the history would be forced to take up an entirely new direction", concludes Dr. Bhattrai.

This means that Dr. Bhattarai thinks that there was a force still active in Nepal that would wish to isolate the Maoists by bringing in the monarchy and the parliamentary parties closer to deal with the Maoists.

How the powers that be in Kathmandu react to Dr. Bhattarai's stern warnings will have to be carefully observed.

TAF to continue its support

Kathmandu: The Nepal Office of The Asia Foundation celebrated its 50th anniversary Monday evening at Hotel Radisson.

Those who attended the celebration were the partner organizations of the TAF in Nepal.

The dignitaries who graced the reception organized by the TAF were, among others, the Nepalese Prime Minister and the Interim President of TAF, Dr. Barnett Baron, Vice President for Programs, Dr. Gordon Hein and other senior officials of TAF, San Francisco.

Welcoming the guests, Nick Langton, the Nepal Office Chief of TAF, said that his office concentrated its efforts in Nepal on areas such as Law and Government Accountability; Local Conflict Resolution and Peace Building; Small -scale Economic Opportunities and Women's security.

The Interim President, Dr. Barnett said that TAF would continue to support Nepal in the future as well.

Nepal's prime Minister thanked the TAF for all what TAF had been doing since long for the development of Nepal in varied sectors.

Alarming polio epidemic

Kathmandu: Epidemiologists ‘alarmed’ by continuing spread of virus - warn thousands of children could be paralyzed across west and central Africa.

Geneva - Epidemiologists of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative today issued a stark warning that west and central Africa is on the brink of the largest polio epidemic in recent years. The warning follows confirmation today that a child was paralyzed on 20 May by polio in the Darfur region of the Sudan, a country which had not seen the disease in more than three years. The virus is closely linked genetically to poliovirus endemic to northern Nigeria, which has spread through Chad in recent months.

Epidemiological data show that transmission of wild poliovirus continues to accelerate at an alarming rate in the region. In addition to the re-infection of the Sudan, five times as many children in west and central

Africa have been paralyzed by polio so far in 2004 compared to the same period in 2003. 197 children have been paralyzed in Nigeria, following the suspension of polio immunization campaigns in northern Nigeria late last year.

“There is no question that the virus is spreading at an alarming pace,” said communicable disease expert Dr David Heymann, the World Health Organization’s Representative for Polio Eradication. “The fact that the Sudan is now re-infected is concrete evidence of the need to support a massive immunization response right across west and central Africa.” Heymann stressed the re-infection of the Sudan is the latest setback to the strong progress Africa had achieved in eradicating polio. “At the beginning of 2003, only two countries in sub-Saharan Africa were polio-endemic. Today, however, Africa accounts for nearly 90% of the global polio burden, with children now paralyzed in ten previously polio-free countries across the continent.”

Epidemiologists fear that a major epidemic this autumn (during the polio ‘high season’) would leave thousands of African children paralyzed for life. Children are particularly vulnerable in west and central African countries, surrounding Nigeria, as less than half of children in the region are routinely immunized against a series of diseases, including polio. In response to this threat, they recommended plans to hold massive, synchronized immunization campaigns across 22 African countries in October and November, aiming to reach 74 million children. These campaigns could avert a public health tragedy.

India supports Dharan Campus

Kathmandu: H.E. Mr. Shyam Saran, Ambassador of India to Nepal, at a public function held at Dharan today, laid the foundation stone of the building of the Mahendra Multiple Campus, Dharan. The public function was well attended by representatives of the local administration, community leaders and large number of people from the area. The campus building will be called ‘Nepal Bharat Maitri Bhawan’, and will thus stand for long years as an enduring symbol of the friendship between the two countries.

Government of India had sanctioned assistance of NRs. 25.91 million for the construction of classroom block with teachers’ rooms and library hall and provision of furniture for the Mahendra Multiple Campus, Dharan. A tripartite agreement was signed on May 12, 2004, between the Embassy of India, Dharan Municipality and the Mahendra Multiple Campus, laying down the modalities of providing Indian assistance for this project.

The construction of the building would be executed by the Municipality, Dharan in accordance with prescribed procedures. An oversight committee consisting of the Programme in-charge of the Campus, the Assistant Campus

Chief and the District Education Officer has been constituted to supervise construction and ensure proper utilisation of the grant assistance.

The need for the building at the Mahendra Multiple Campus, Dharan has long been felt by the local community in Dharan. The students come not only from District Sunsari where the campus is located but also from neighbouring districts Morang, Saptari and Dhankuta, in addition to these from hilly territories of Purwanchal Development Region. It is one of the oldest colleges in Tribhuvan University catering to the needs of more than 4000 students on its rolls. The construction of the building would go a long way in not only improving educational infrastructure for the students of the campus but also reinforcing India’s commitment for strengthening economic bonds with Nepal through such programmes in a vital sector.

(Based on a Press Release issued by t he Embassy of India, Kathmandu)

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