I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Deuba remains hostage to government

Kathmandu: Both Prime Minister Deuba and UML chief Madhav Kumar Nepal promise that the much-postponed cabinet will materialize this week. Indeed, the Congress-Democratic, the UML, the RPP and even the Sadbhawana have all gone through the formalities of formulating their individual "common minimum program", CMP, for which they account to the delay. Nepal, moreover, charges Deuba for contributing to the delay. There are also hints that much behind the scene activities have taken place to ensure that the programs don't clash and that there will be agreement for the commonalities in the individual programs to allow the parties to participate in government.

But this is not enough. The issue of forming government has longstanding practicalities that have impeded the King's desire for a national government for over twenty months now. Indeed, it has been the pursuit of crass political power and the very matter of political survival that has prevented constitutional forces to come together to take up the challenge of a united approach to the threat posed to the constitution by the Maoist insurgency. Whatever the public posture the rhetoric of unity in the formation of government has been threatened at the very outset by "realpolitiks".

Deuba himself is shaken by demands from party seniors for cabinet berths that must be sacrificed to competitors. It is after all these seniors that provided the organization clout for Deuba to demonstrate separately with demands for reinstatement after he was sacked by the King for attempting to prolong his tenure on the rues that he was unable to hold the elections. Having ensured that too "clean" party members Prakash Man Singh and Bimlendra Nidhi come aboard his cabinet, Deuba must face pressures for more party representation from within his own party.

The issue of common minimum program and the programs themselves remain a stumble block in Deuba-UML talks regardless of the public posture to the contrary. Key organizational questions such as the resuscitation, of the local elected posts, the matter of constituent assembly and the likes have shown glaring schisms that may only temporarily be papered over for the sake of the matter is that, just as Deuba has critical internal party compulsions, Madhav Nepal has even more glaring ones.

UML leadership competition to Madhav Nepal from stalwarts K.P.Woli and Bam Dev Gautam are well-recognized compulsions that will shape the fate of this national government. Nepal has ensured that this section must be edged out from the advantage of an electoral government. It is not for nothing that Bam Dev Gautam comes public for the demand for experienced ministerial appointees, it is not or nothing that Woli demands a representational cabinet. In this light the delay in cabinet formation is understandable as is the expectation of doom.

Already the fractious RPP sees divisional strains. Deuba apparently must now see to it that participation from the RPP contains both the P. Rana and S.B. Thapa factions. Evidently, unity in, the RPP is to depend on this but Deuba is aware of Thapa's eleven month long alliance with competitor Girija Koirala that put Thapa in power to the disadvantage of Deuba. There is then the Sadbhawana sections to be represented one of which remains in the agitation led by competitor Koirala. The congress nexus is yet another factor in the woes of government.

Girija Koirala takes his political ride to Delhi avowing a rejuvenation of his India contacts. While denying the possibility that his medical trip will lead to underground talks with the Maoists, his public statement that underground talks with the Maoists, his public statement that his agitation will also keep an eye on resolving the Maoist problems will mean much to Deuba. Already a section of his party leaders chose to threaten Deuba with a slide back to Koirala if they are ignored in the cabinet. That the Maoists can play with the Koirala pole to seek advantage at talks with Deuba is very much a threat to the success of the Deuba government prior to its making itself.

It thus remains to be seen really whether the cabinet will have materialized this week if it has not by time of this publication one dead-line will have passed. If it does not by Friday the week will have exhausted and both Deuba and Madhav Nepal will have been proved wrong. Of course, postponements will then be accounted to remaining formalities but us watchers will have been given grounds for that added dose of skepticism that invariably speaks of doom for the Deuba cabinet prior to its making.

UML awaits a big-fight: Woli and Gautam sidelined

Kathmandu: The UML is heading towards a major political crisis that if not handled with care possesses the seeds of bringing about a vertical split in the party.

The required seeds are already there and just await its sowing. However, the time appears not to have become ripe.

A highly enthusiastic UML could have concluded that by supporting Sher Bahadur Deuba government, the party would reap maximum political benefits at time of the election if at all it happened in a year or two. However, the party's internal dissensions appear to take its toll prior to even joining the Deuba government.

Insiders of the UML say that while the party is providing an impression to the laymen that it is busy in finalizing the names of those who should be sent to represent the party in the government, the fact is that the party is engulfed in a severe crisis of confidence in and among its own top-ranking stalwarts.

Sources say that Madhav Nepal's extra ambitions mixed with a bit of hegemonic attitude is becoming hard to digest to his equally competent colleagues, for example, K.P.Woli and the known detractor, Bam Dev Gautam.

"The manner Madhav Nepal has been sidelining his opponents in the party is sure to boomerang shortly", claim those who appear close to Woli and Gautam.

Frustrated by Madhav's recent overtures, mainly after the formation of the Deuba government, K.P.Woli, perhaps thought it more prudent to stay aloof from the party's activities and announced that he would in no way join the government.

In saying so, K.P.Woli hinted two things. Firstly, he knew that he would not be sent to the government and hence the advance rejection. Secondly, his rejection to any post in the government does also speak of the fact that in the recent days his relations with his own party boss were not that comfortable.

That comrade Woli is not happy with what is going on in his own party becomes clear from the fact that of late the veteran communist leader has put a brake on his lectures and appearing in interview columns of various newspapers.

This does tell that Woli in all likelihood is not in even good talking terms with his boss-Madhav Nepal.

Woli supporters maintain that there has been a calculated effort from the Madhav Nepal's quarter to cut the sizes of his detractors for fear of being marginalized if the detractors were sent to the cabinet.

No less interesting is the story of Gautam.

A straight-forward personality as he is, Gautam, even predicted in advance that his chances of being sent to represent the UML in the cabinet were simply bleak for he was yet considered a man who remained instrumental in breaking the party some years back.

"The charge is still on my personality and it could take some years when I will be absolved from this charge", said a blunt Gautam the other day to the press.

In saying so, Gautam did ventilate his internal feelings that although he was serving the party but with a tainted face. Gautam, however, knows the tricks being played by his detractors and claims that only those who happen to be the close and trusted aides of the UML strongman would be sent to join the Deuba cabinet. He, nevertheless, hides his displeasure by saying that the party must send those who could match with the representations of other parties in the cabinet.

"Don't send stupid and idiots", says Gautam.

Speaking to the Nepali media the other day, Gautam slightly hinted that personalities like him were being deliberately sidelined for reasons unknown to him.

Analysts say that such leg-pulling activities more often than not were a common feature in communist societies. The ruling strongman would wish not to elevate the ranks of his declared competitors and rivals for fear of being politically outmaneuvered.

Bam Dev Gautam and K.P.Woli appear to have been the victim of this fear psychosis.

Nevertheless, to expect that Gautam and Woli will instantly initiate actions that go against party GS, Madhav Nepal, will be a foolish act. However, what is for sure is that if Madhav's negligence towards Woli and Gautam were correct then a minor jolt would soon shake the party whose impact would be greater than what supporters of Madhav might have in their minds.

The fact is that this time Madhav Nepal has to face the challenges posed to his authority by nonelessthan Woli and Gautam who command respect and honor in the party and still even their detractors and supporters alike are attentively hearing their voices.

How the two UML towering personalities react to the UML representation in the Deuba cabinet will have determined the fate and the course of action that this party will take in the future.

Tentatively speaking, the initial preparation for a possible big-fight is taking shape, albeit clandestinely. If the fight is there, Madhav Nepal is the loser.

Not to meet Maoists in India
Koirala's one point agenda: Settling the Maoist issue for good

Kathmandu: Leaving the lame-duck agitation against regression in the lurch, the commander of the said movement, Girija Prasad Koirala, is on a weeklong Delhi pilgrimage.

Tired and perhaps frustrated by the insignificant outcome of the agitation, Koirala felt the need to refresh him by making a tour to Delhi wherein he could rejuvenate his old ties with the Indian leaders.

The fact is also that Koirala is in effect suffering from certain ailments that needed thorough medical check-ups in Delhi. It is altogether a different matter as to whether Nepali hospitals were competent enough to attend on Koirala or not. In the past, Koirala used to visit Dharan hospital which is considered to be one-of-the best in the South Asian region.

Should this mean that Koirala's sudden departure to Delhi has some thing more than meets the eye?

Now that Koirala is already in Delhi, analysts concentrate their analyses as to whether Koirala will see the top-hats of the Maoists insurgency, albeit if they were in Delhi?

The other question the analysts ask whether the Indian establishment under Prime Minister man Mohan Singh will allow such meetings to happen given the fact that as and when such meetings have taken place in between the Nepali leaders and the Maoists leaders, Indian establishment have had to feel some sort of embarrassment.

However, the manner Koirala a week ago declared that he was enough to settle the Maoists issue and that he would accomplish the task of bringing the insurgents to the mainstream come what may.

His impromptu declaration forces analysts in Kathmandu that Koirala's Delhi trip has two purposes: firstly, to go in for a medical check-up which is what he in effect needs and secondly, if things remained normal, to see Maoists leaders and share his experiences on the fresh political developments in Nepal specially after his rival Deuba assumed the nation's prime minister ship.

If one were to recall how the Indian establishment reacted to Madhav's clandestine meetings with comrade Prachanda and Dr. Bhattarai late November last year in Lucknow, India, it becomes clear that the new government in Delhi will not allow Koirala so easily to meet those whom Koirala wishes to meet. And Koirala can't afford to annoy the host country and perhaps will return Kathmandu stating that since he had gone to Delhi only for medical check-up, he did not meet the leaders of the insurgency.

Media sources in Kathmandu opine that Koirala, if things went as per the schedule, will meet Maoists leaders somewhere in NOIDA and the facilitator would be this time the Chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, Mulayam Singh Yadav.

Other sources say that Koirala's long time friend, George Fernandes, will manage such a meeting in between the two.

The third source claims that it would be former Prime Minister, Chandra Shekhar, a family friend of Koirala, who would arrange such a meeting for Koirala with the Maoists at his own Bhondse Ashram that is talked to be located in the outskirts of Delhi.

Koirala prior to leaving for Delhi point blank rejected that he was all set to meet the Maoists leaders.

Whether Koirala meets the leaders of the insurgency or not, nevertheless, UML's Madhav Nepal has offered his congratulations to Koirala by saying that if Koirala succeeded in settling the Maoists issue and restore peace in the country, he and his party would wish to declare him a national hero.

Madhav Nepal speaking in Pokhara, Tuesday indicated that Koirala might meet the insurgent leaders during his Delhi sojourn.

Understandably, Koirala's mission depends on the sagacity of the Indian establishment indeed. If Delhi entertains Koirala's wish and allows the two to meet in private will mean that Koirala still can influence the powers-that-be in Delhi. If he fails would mean that Delhi simply distanced itself from the mess of an exclusively Nepali affair.

Nevertheless, let's hope that Koirala brings positive message when he returns to the capital.

Telegraph adds: A senior NC activist who is close to Koirala told this scribe Tuesday afternoon that Koirala will not meet the Maoists leaders while being in India and that the media reports that Koirala will see the leaders of the insurgency in Delhi were all rubbish designed to malign both Koirala and India. "If Koirala wishes to meet them, he can do so even in the Nepalese territory or can opt for a third country for such a meet", added the NC source. The source went on to say that Koirala was well received in India.

RPP pushes its own agenda

Kathmandu: The RPP, the third largest force in the now dissolved parliament, too appears to have come of its age.

The manner the RPP stalwarts have been twisting the arms of PM Deuba does speak that the party will not settle for less than forcing the prime minister to incorporate certain demands set by the party in the common minimum program, the CMP.

The RPP summarily rejected the NC-D and the UML idea that the RPP should agree to the CMP agreed upon by the two senior parties.

The RPP has its own agenda whose incorporation in the CMP were a must prior to its joining the Deuba cabinet.

Poor Deuba has no other options left other than to accept to the dictates of the RPP for fear of being unable to provide the cabinet an all-party set up.

RPP's new demands apparently has put Deuba in a tight corner which will perhaps delay the formation of a larger cabinet by a day or two.

Some of the RPP agenda include, among others, to give new lease of life to the local bodies on an all-party basis and giving due attention to the issues and the problems of the various ethnic tribes and castes.

The RPP has also in its demand for the establishment of a sort of "Peace Secretariat" that will apparently support the peace process.

Hulas wire fined; Court acquits Tiwrewala

Biratnagar: All that glitters is not gold, goes a famous adage.

This saying has come to true in the case of an industrialist who claims himself to be one of the most sacrosanct industrialist and businessman of the country.

However, the fact is that this industrialist is not what he claims to be in effect.

The Biratnagar based Morang district appellate court has fined Hulas Wire Industries, a company run by Hulas Chandra Golcha, Rupees 6.1 million for having clearly misused the foreign currency facility awarded to this industries by the State.

Tej Bahadur karki, a justice of the AC, declared last Wednesday that the HWI had exceeded its limits that caused revenue damage to the State.

Reports say that the Wire industries had opened Letter of Credit two years back to use foreign currency to buy and import copper scraps from Bhilla Rosa Steel Company, Phillipines. However, the Biratnagar customs found stones, mud and the likes instead of the copper scrap.

A nervous and panick-stricken authorities of the industries opted to shift the blame onto the heads of the one Tiwrewala and Sons stating that it was this company that cheated the industries.

However, the fact is that the allegations were malicious and the Morang court acquitted Tiwrewala and Sons and Sharad Tiwrewala stating that for the import of the said copper scraps, the alleged persons had nothing to do.

The court ruling now makes it clear that the Hulas Wire Industries had a mal-intent and that the HWI had dared to cause revenue losses to the state deliberately and hence had to be fined as per the laws of the land.

The HWI was supposed to import 50 mt of the copper scrap.

Mr. Golcha happens to be the honorary consul general of the Republic of Poland, it is learnt.

Agreement on Anti-Corruption and Law Enforcement

Kathmandu: His Majesty’s Government of Nepal and the United States of America have agreed to modify and amend the Letter of Agreement on "Anti-Corruption and Law Enforcement" between the two countries, signed on February 01, 2002.  The Amendment to the Letter of Agreement to this effect was signed by Dr. Madhav Prasad Ghimire, Joint Secretary, Ministry of Finance on behalf of His Majesty’s Government of Nepal and Ms. Janet Bogue. Charge d’Affaires a.i., Embassy of the United States of America, on behalf of the United States of America in Kathmandu today.

The United States of America has agreed, through this amendment, to provide a grant assistance of U.S. $280,000 (about Rs. 20 crore 22 lakh) to His Majesty’s Government of Nepal to establish and support a project to foster a better legal environment for the prevention and prosecution of trafficking in person cases.

The grant assistance will be utilized to develop a training curriculum for police, public prosecutors and judges and to develop appropriate treatment for victims, as well as to develop guidance on strengthening current laws and procedures to protect victims and prosecute trafficking cases.

His Majesty’s Government of Nepal has expressed its sincere appreciation to the United States of America for providing continued assistance and support in the socio-economic development of Nepal.  The Embassy of the United States thanked His Majesty’s Government of Nepal for it continued strong cooperation in areas of mutual interest, and commended His Majesty’s Government of Nepal for its increasing efforts to prevent trafficking in persons.

(Press release American Center, Kathmandu)

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