I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Eyes turn to Pokhara

Kathmandu: - Unless Prime Minister Thapa has courted internal divisions by his new change in Cabinet portfolios in his otherwise unitary ministry, it is clear that His Majesty the King’s civic receptions will have pro-longed his chair in government.

Otherwise indications are that the government has succeeded in isolating itself from Thapa’s own RPP party, the agitating political parties and the rest of civil society with the confidence that is in none else than the monarchy that must dismiss him.

Initial reactions of the change in portfolios suggest that Dr Prakash Chandra Lohani is unhappy at his demotion to third man in the Ministry given senior Dr Bekh Bahadur Thapa’s fillip to the foreign and health portfolio.

Moreover, Minister Buddhiman Tamang who was proxying Premier Thapa’s role of Home Minister is said to be disgruntled at the Home Ministry shifting to Kamal Thapa. How these developments will impact upon the eight-man cabinet internal performance ultimately remains to be seen.

These developments apart, eyes must necessarily be turned to HM the King’s Pokhara felicitations which after the Nepalgunj Royal proclamation is expected to give a much needed impetus to current politics of stalemate.

With the political parties’ clearly maneuvering for the coming elections that they publicly proclaim is an impossibility and the Maoists announcing their continued terrorist presence, His Majesty is expected to give a more precise direction to the present status of politics.

If previous experience in the conduct of party politics is a clue, the agitating parties will deride any election attempt without their participation in government as trumped up. This explains their growing clamor negating the chances of elections which the government insists will take place. On the other hand, Girija Prasad Koirala in particular prepares his party for the polls with unity moves currently rejected by the Deuba congress.

Amidst this strategy, the UML’s Madhav Nepal appears increasingly cornered from within his own party. His grassroots has been swept by the Maoists and his leadership would want to entrench him in his failures under congress initiatives.

Clearly, something must budge somewhere. It is not for nothing that eyes turn to Pokhara.

Maoists adopt political counter-attack strategy

Kathmandu: The Thapa establishment got a major jolt when the insurgents violently attacked the Headquarters of Bhojpur last week and killed scores of the security personnel.

The Bhojpur attack came at a time when the Prime Minister himself had been crying that the insurgents had become pretty weak and that they would be pushed on the wall time permitting. However, this did not happen. On the contrary, the insurgents did exhibit that they were not a spent force still.

The Bhojpur sad incident does tell that the unified security command is yet to understand the strength and the strategic policies acquired of late by the Maoists in order to offer surprises to the former.

What is also being talked in the Nepali academic circle is that the government under Thapa tried to belittle the strength of its declared enemy and consoled itself with the myopic thinking of having already acquired an edge over the military strength of the other camp. This was a Himalayan blunder that Thapa government committed in the recent days.

The fact is that the Maoists had been airing of late that that they will henceforth acquire new strategies that would concentrate their efforts on attacking district headquarters with full force. The government apparently took their would be moves in a different manner and hence the set back in Bhojpur.

The Bhojpur incident also tells that the Maoists are up now to attack such other headquarters that becomes politically and militarily significant for them which ultimately weakens the establishment’s security system.  The assumption could be that if the State is attacked from all the possible sides, it would be much easier for them to take control over the district headquarters wherein the state machinery is in strength.

To recall, the Maoists until now have declared scores of their own people’s government in several districts. However, it is an altogether a different matter that the nation’s security forces dismiss such claims advanced by the other camp. But then the stark reality has been that since the remote villages and the districts stand bereft of their “representatives”, the areas thus automatically go in the hands of the insurgents.

Nevertheless, the fact is that the Maoists are every where. They are in the remote villages, in the remote districts, in the urban areas, in the rural areas and needless to say they are very much in the capital district as well.

All that they wish apparently is to corner the establishment with acts of violence here and there so that the state gets nervous and their goals achieved.

What is yet boggling the minds of the intellectuals is that the unified command had apparently received the information that the insurgents were up on attacking Bhojpur or any such other district in the periphery. However, the fact is that with the advance information in hand, the incident took place . What is even more surprising is the fact that around the time the incident took place in Bhojpur, practically all the heads of the security agencies were on leave. What a terrible coincidence indeed? The army sources say that this is being investigated.

Kathmandu is also under the target of the Maoists. This gets reflected from the fact that practically on a daily basis, the Maoists have been exploding gelatines in prime areas of Kathmandu thus creating panic among the Kathmanduites.

Should this mean that lack of coordination among the activities or in the processing of received information in and among the various security agencies is the real issue?

Unsubstantiated reports reveal that the Maoists in thousands from Rolpa, Rukum and Jajarkot have proceeded already on a long-march towards the country’s North-East direction in order to achieve what they call “strategic counter attack”.

If this is true then what could be summarized is that they are in the west and now they wish to show their very presence in the extreme North-East part of the country. Add to this that they have their strong presence in the Terai plains as well.

Should this mean that they wish to encircle the “old regime” and impose a sort of blockade so that the establishment yields to their scheme of things?

The fact is that the Maoists have already declared imposition of blockades in various districts, which is soon to come into effect. If this does happen then what is for sure is that the capital district will have to suffer on many counts.

This is not all. The Maoists have already declared that a three-day bundh will be observed next month around this time. Prior to the Bundh   next month, the Maoists plan to attack those commercial enterprises which has the investment from the Rana and Shaha families.

Putting it all together, what could be concluded is that the insurgents are not yet a spent force; are in a mood to go in for an endless fight with the state; and that the insurgency is politically benefiting from the differences that exists in between the King and the political parties.

March 8: 94th Intl. Women’s Day Observed
Indicators reveal Nepali women still suffering

--Niraj Aryal

"National Women's Comission: Fighting Corruption Charges!"

Kathmandu: It is often said equal rights to citizens both women and men are necessary preconditions for a democracy to exist and flourish.

Most of the developed western democracies plus some developed countries in Asia as well advocate equal rights to both men and women.

But, Erika Kinetz, writes in her article on “Women's work: A world of unfinished business”: “in the International Herald Tribune, in the United States, there are more women in the work force at higher levels than in any other country in the world. But even in the US they still make less than their male counterparts. In Sweden, women's wages are high, but their role in the work force remains relatively traditional. In Germany, maternal leave is generous, but many women drop out of the work force once they have children. In Japan, the gap is not just in wages but also in the basic structure of the way men and women are employed. She writes further, in the late 90’s Belgium, France, Sweden, and Italy, where full-time female workers earned 83 to 90 cents for each $1 earned by men, and broadest in Japan, Austria (where women’s are seen selling tickets for the public bus services), and Spain, where full-time female workers earned 63 to 71 cents per male-earned dollar”.

 This inequality, be it just in terms of wage is also noticeable in the developed West.

The subject for discrimination varies with geography. In most of the under developed countries, discrimination in education, health, food, decision making process etc. are more pronounced than this wage inequity. Unless women’s get an opportunity to work (payable), there is no question of being discriminated in terms of wage. This is what happens in most of the under-developed countries.

Carolle Belamy, Executive Director of UNICEF, said on the occasion of 94th International Women's Day, "To deny a girl an education not only crushes her own potential, but diminishes the chance that any children she might eventually have both boys and girls will go to school and will be able to escape a life of poverty".

She further adds "Luckily, the flip side is also true. When a girl receives an education, everyone wins, the girl herself, her family, her community and her country."

To add, the International Women’s Day is being celebrated every year since 1910, when a Socialist International, meeting in Copenhagen voiced for the women’s equal educational, social, economical and political rights as men for the first time.

The outcome after 94 long years of fight against the societal loopholes, it can be inferred that nothing has happened towards educating a woman. Still in the 21st century UNICEF is calling for “Girls' Education the Key to the Future”. This long march towards empowering women through education has virtually failed.  The fact that still 10 million more girls are out of school than boys proves this reality.

However, Nepal started recognizing the International Women’s day since 1975. It was in 1991 that Nepal formally acknowledged the convention for eradicating all sort of discriminations against women. Since then various steps have been taken, for example, from establishing Ministry for Women, increasing women’s participation in sector programs, skill training and access to health facilities, health information and making legal reforms, making women’s right to property more secure and strengthening punitive action against violence.

But the lack of serious efforts in implementing what has been adopted in the past is the major problem that continues to deny the due rights guaranteed by the constitutions and the various covenants wherein Nepal is a signatory.

More than 100 existing laws in Nepal differentiate women folks reveals a report recently published by the National Human Rights Commission.

The report further states that around 5000-7000 women’s are trafficked across the border each year. The price for a woman is around 25,000 to 50,000 NRs. And 50% of those who return back to Nepal are HIV positive and face societal humiliation thereafter.

The degrading Net Enrollment Ratio situation, bad maternal mortality rates, average life of 53.5 years and literacy rate of 30% are a few of the indicators to prove that women in Nepal are still suffering and demand urgent redress to their genuine grievances.

Amidst all these, UNDP-Nepal and the Ministry of Women Children and Social Welfare jointly organized a program to celebrate 94th International Women’s Day here in Kathmandu on 7th March 2004.

On the occasion, awards were distributed for those who have performed outstandingly to create social awareness in the society.

Mr. Santosh Pant, Producer/Director of the TV serial Hijo Aajaka Kura (aired in NTV every Friday evening) was awarded for creating HIV/AIDS awareness through the Tele-serial.

Ms. Goma Sapkota, at the age of 25, after death of her husband (11 years ago) in an accident has performed extra-ordinarily in her village to unite all the womenfolks.  Ms. Sapkota was also awarded for her outstanding achievements.

Ms Suni Bhandari from Dadeldhura and Ms. Hira Devi Khadka from Doti district were also awarded on the occasion.

UNDP Resident Representative, Mathew Kahane and Ms. Puspa Shrestha, NPC, spoke on the occasion.

Jashna E-Baharan celebrated

Kathmandu: The Pakistan embassy the other day organised a colorful ceremony to mark the advent of Spring season.

“Jashna E-Baharan” which literally means a festival of spring was attended by diplomats, academicians, literary figures, media men and politicians.

Ambassador Zamir Akram highlighted the importance of the festival which was organised in Kathmandu for the first time.

The festival is very popular among the Lahorites in Pakistan and is celebrated by flying kites of varied size and colors, said the Pak diplomat.

Nepal: cannabis cultivation on the rise

Kathmandu: South Asian countries continue to be a channel for the drug traffickers because of their proximity to the world’s most prolific opiate production areas in South-East Asia and South-West Asia, says a report on the International Narcotics Control Board for 2003.

UNIC and INCB-Nepal released the report here, on 3rd March 2004 at the UNDP-Nepal premises.

In Nepal, Cannabis grows wild in the high hills of the central, mid-western and Far Western part, where illicit crop eradication is expensive due to the difficult terrain. In the southern part of Nepal, cannabis cultivation has increased; most of the cannabis grown there is destined for the illicit market in India and abroad, says the report.

Adding further, the report states, “in Nepal the smuggling and abuse of heroin from South-West Asia and South-East Asia are on the rise. The illicit cultivation of opium poppy occurs on a small scale, but it is increasing”., concludes the report.

On the occasion the UNDP Resident Representative, Mathew Kahane was present.

Will political parties buy to Maoists new demands?

Kathmandu: The Maoists have stepped up their violent activities of late, which they claim was declared in advance.

Their newly acquired strategy is to harass the establishment by attacking significant and strategic security posts situated in the districts headquarters and thereby compel the State to yield on its terms.

So far, the Maoists have become able to act as per their declaration.

The government security forces appear to have been devising new strategies to face the challenge posed to it by the insurgents of late.

The visit of the American Ambassador to certain parts of the country in and around the time of the Bhojpur incident and the set back the establishment received there does indicate that Nepal as a nation-state will be provided with more sophisticated weapons to contain the growing threat of the Maoists violence. A clear indication to this effect has been aired recently by the visiting American dignitary who revealed that delivery of weapons to Nepal were in the pipeline.

This means that the state, in the words of the Maoists, the Old regime, will soon equip itself with new weapons to take up the Maoists challenge with a renewed vigor and valor.

There could be two reasons as to why the Maoists of late have stepped up their violent activities in the Kingdom.

Firstly, analysts say, it could be that the Maoists feel themselves pretty weakened internally for having missed their two strongmen, Matrika Yadav and Suresh Ale Magar, who now languish in Nepali custody. The reality could be that the Maoists by terrorizing the Old regime apparently were in a mood to go in for a sort of political bargain for the release of its two trusted friends.

Secondly, the Maoists top-leadership could be thinking on the lines that if they press the Old-regime harder, the latter could appreciate its strength and invite them to come to the table. If it is so, then the Maoists will attend the table with a “position” of strength which would mean extracting of greater concessions from the old-regime.

One more interpretation is there which apparently is to deal with friendly India.

The fact could have been that the Maoists might have felt rejected by the Indians when the latter only recently deported Matrika and Suresh for gains that they have failed to understand. The deportation of their friends could have jolted the top-hats of the insurgency from within forcing then to conclude that India could also handover the rest of the Maoists leaders to Nepal should Nepal agree to some of her “exclusive” and “secret” political demands. A sense of fear appaers to be there in the minds of the Maoists currently hiding in India with a constant fear that India could one fine morning deport them as well.

That they are not happy with what the Indian authorities did with their two compatriots gets reflected from one of the slogans that they have included in their already declared April 6-8 Nepal Bundh wherein they demand “all the unequal treaties be made null and void”.

When one talked of unequal treaties, it is generally believed in this country that one is hinting at Nepal’s various treaties signed with India wherein Nepal has been a looser in series. Should this mean that the Maoists now will press the Nepali establishment to go in for canceling all the supposed unequal treaties that we have had with India? Should this also mean that the Maoists will support the Nepali demand that India stopped the constructions of Dams in Mahali Sagar which if allowed to proceed as it is moving now could inundate thousands of hectares of Nepali land?

Guess works only.

Nevertheless, the Maoists have come up with a new idea in the recent days. They now talks of the formation of a “People’s Republic”. A statement issued by Prachanda and Dr. Bhattarai the other day maintains that the insurgency was happy with the kind of support they have been receiving from the students’ end who have been demanding republicanism and that the insurgency would be there in support of political parties should the latter demanded for a People’s republic.

However, how the agitating political parties will react to Maoists new political overtures will have to be watched.

Chances are that if the agitating political parties continue to be rejected by the establishment and by the King, they might take up the idea of the Maoist’s freshly pushed for public and political parties’ consumption.

UN experts express concern

Kathmandu: Three independent experts of the UN Commission on HR expressed Tuesday their profound concern over the deteriorating HR situation in Nepal, in the light of the reported intensification of the conflict between the government and the Maoists, says a note issued by the UN System in Nepal.

The experts issuing their concern are Ambeyi Ligabo; Leila Zerrougvi and Theo Vanboven, states the UN note issued Tuesday.

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