I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Thapa-shape in or ship out

Kathmandu: High stakes being played press the nation. Stunned by a series of major military reversals, the Maoists press the state with heightened terror-tactics. The five major parties embarrassed by continuing public disenchantment at their agitation stake their presence with continued presence on Kathmandu streets of their cadre strength which remains between three to four thousand.

The increased Republican pitch notwithstanding, the same faces mar their presence and the public adopts a bystander approach that ignores the shrill dictates being dumped on the monarchy.

The monarchy on the other hand remains set on its constitutional course. Preparations for Pokhara make it convenient for both the political parties and the Maoists to target impediments. Of course, the security forces are stretched and the two are gambling on this factor. The crucial factor, the people, is ignored in the process and this is where the monarchy cashes in.

Pokhara thus is expected to force the government deadlines on the original mission of Article 127—elections and an all-representative government. This is likely to force Thapa cabinet to shape in or ship out.

Startling revelation from a HR activist
Maoists and government in search of a face-saving formulae!

Kathmandu: Politics never remains static, it is generally believed. If this saying is true then let’s hope that Nepali politics too remains in a dynamic situation which apparently is being thought otherwise by the national population who are more often than not told of the real happenings neither by the establishment not by the major political actors.

The same is true this time around.

The fact is that the Government through its own channels has been sending signals to the Maoists quarters that they are ready for talks if the other camp so desired.

Very pleasingly, Surya Bahadur Thapa, the incumbent Prime Minister, provided ample hint that he was ready for talks.

This is not all.

The Maoists too appear very much eager for talks provided conducive atmosphere is prepared for such a talks.

Sudip Pathak, a Human Right activist, made a startling revelation that the "Maoists too were willing for such a talks with the establishment".

Mr. Pathak met the Premier Monday afternoon.

This means that the iron is hot and could be provided a shape while it remained hot.

Analysts opine that this new gestures coming as it does from the rival quarters is a welcome move for both the warring parties perhaps realized that there was no meaning in lingering the battle wherein a Nepali is hell bent on killing the other Nepali.

But then the fact is also that if both see the need for talks then why is this battle continuing?

Is it to present oneself from a position of strength at time of the talks?

Perhaps yes!

But what factors could have prompted both to see the need for the talks when the two continue to each other as and when they confront each other?

The fact is that both apparently have concluded that it was a war neither side could win. Secondly, the fact could also be that both realised that a sort of amicable solution to this imbroglio would be in the larger interest of the people and the nation. Thirdly, the Maoists could have been told to restrain themselves by those who supposedly have been providing shelters to the leaders of the insurgency. Fourthly, the government too might have been suggested by friendly countries to tame its military men as cases of HR abuses were on the rise and that the solution to this issue lay not in the mobilization of the security personals but talks. Fifthly, the Maoists presumably concluded that since the State was at the receiving end of the required sophisticated military hardwares to which they can’t match at the battle field. This they could have also concluded upon the sad incident that rocked Sweden only last week which, in their own consideration, might enhance Nepali establishment with much more lethal weapons to contain the Maoists threat here. Understandably, the incident in Sweden must have come as a bonus for this country which will undoubtedly approach the European nations for more weapons to face the challenge here posed to it by the Maoists.

The fact is that Europe can not deny the Nepali requests.

It could also be that the Nepali establishment under Thapa realised that the Maoists too were not that weak as is being interpreted in certain quarters. The Maoists insurgency in effect is not that weak as Thapa opined a week ago. That the Maoists were still a force got reflected from their fierceful attack on Bhojpur and the manner the government has remained helpless in doing away with the blockades imposed by the Maoists in certain districts.

It is in this light, analysts here wish to take King Gyanendra’s sudden trip to Bhadrapur the other day. Add to this the longer stay of Crown Prince in Bhadrapur. But for why?

Interpretations galore indeed.

Kathmandu’s intellectuals see significance in this royal visit to Bhadrapur. Who knows that the King might have gone there to ventilate his things to the Maoists through the use of his own channels?

To recall, rumors last year were that the King had met some top-notch of the insurgency while he was in Biratnagar to grace a felicitation reception organised by the people of the eastern region in his honor.

Whether the King met the Maoists leaders there or not is a matter still under debate among the intellectuals. However, what is for sure is that after such a rumor spread in the country, the Maoists came to the negotiating table. Could be a mere coincidence!

But then what is the harm if the King initiates such a track-two or even three diplomacy and manages the conflict to come to an end?

Be that as it may, if Mr. Pathak’s revelations are correct then what could be concluded is that this time both the contending forces will attend the talks for long and that both will present themselves in a much more matured manner and hopefully provide a sigh of relief to this bleeding nation.

Equally interesting is the fact that the Maoists appear close to the now agitating parties and the latter apparently is banking on their clandestine support. What will happen if the Maoists join the talks? Will not the agitating parties fall flat?

The fact is that the Maoists are close to the parties or at least they are providing this impression. It is also revealingly true that they wish to resume the talks. What is also true is that the Maoists are close to both or at least exploring the possibilities to cash in on the rifts in between the government-parties; the King and the parties; and the fragile situation in the country.

For squeezing greater concessions perhaps! Could be pressure tactics. This does happen at times of love and war.

King’s Pokhara speech to provide a solution?

Kathmandu: It is not a secret now that the five agitating political parties will not settle for less than forcing the monarch to restore what they call "derailed" system and the constitution.

However, what is also not a secret now that the King will not budge come what may. The King appears pretty clear in his perceptions of the unfolding Nepali events.

The Himalayan tussle that is on in between the monarch and the former parliamentary parties is being properly and very efficiently cashed in by the Maoists.

It is altogether a different matter that none of these political actors who mean much to the system and the constitution have possess any sort of love and respect for those on whose name they claim to be firm on their declared adamant stands.

Needless to say, the international community which favors the smooth functioning of the system and the constitution are left with no other options than to "suggest" both the King and the agitating five parties to "reconcile" in the larger interest of the nation.

The advice thus coming from this very special quarter is being totally ignored by both.

Analysts wish to interpret as to what could be the factors that prompt both the King and the political parties not to come to terms with each other?

Their respective declared demands? Or is it the ego on part of the both contending forces? Or even is there some countries which in their own shrewd manner been influencing the two to continue to stick to their already ventilated stands? Or is it that some countries trying to be-fool both for bagging hidden political gains should the situation take a positive turn some time later?

The fact is that the agitating parties need restoration of the parliament to which the monarch says NO! The former parliamentary parties demand a sort of an all-party government formed from among those now in agitation to which the King apparently is ready but prefers his Prime Minister Thapa be provided with a continuity until the election.

The agitating five wish that the King yield to their demands to which the King has repeatedly hinted that he would not.

Add to this, Sher Bahadur Deuba, the dismissed Prime Minister, demands the revival of his own establishment to which the King appears reluctant.

The agitating parties wish that they not be thrown to face the polls to which the King appears determined and in all likelihood will announce the holding of the elections the day he will be felicitated in Pokhara.

The parties conclude that elections can’t be held at this juncture for fear of the Maoists out in the villages and the districts to which the King has his own considerations. Apparently the monarch is trying to show all and sundry that elections could be held by gearing up the security measures even if were a polls conducted in phases. In doing so the King is apparently hinting the international community that he is in favor of polls which will itself bring back to the rails, the already derailed system and the constitution. The King’s intention in favor of the polls is also guided by the fact that he wishes to send signals to the Maoists that he is ready to take up their challenge come what may.

The fact is that his loyal government is sending signals to the agitating parties to go in for the preparation of the polls. For fear or other reasons, the parties are not in a mood to brace the elections. German parliamentarians and a host of others from the Western democracies too have advised Nepal to go in for the polls.

After all what the King wants then? This is a Himalayan question indeed. Equally important is the question as to what the political parties’ demand?

The parties suspect King’s motives. The King hints that he is with them but they must come with a consensual agenda that is in the interest of the system, the constitution and the nation.

The parties allege that the monarch has a hidden agenda of turning himself to an active monarch. The King denies. However, he admits that he would like to be heard and seen come what may.

The tussle thus goes on and on.

The victim: the people, the constitution and the system.

The Maoists have reasons to rejoice from this tussle which apparently has no end. After all they have become able to bring about a grand rift in between the King and the parliamentary parties and this is what they longed for. This is not all. The Maoists apparently have been able to bring closer those political parties with them who till the other day respected the constitution but now talk on the lines much similar to the insurgents.

Basically, the Maoists have succeeded in bringing close those with whom they differed until the other day. The fact is that Maoists who disapprove the 1990 constitution, deliberate or otherwise, have made the political parties to go against the constitution which they themselves drafted some thirteen years ago.

Be that as it may, the King could be right in his own presumptions. By the same token, let’s imagine that the parties now in agitation too possess valid grounds to carry on the tussle with the King.

The fact is that the King reiterates his total commitment to the system and the constitution. The parties disagree from head-to-toe.

How to bridge this gap then? Who should yield? The parties or the King?

Very complicated question indeed.

However, our own analysts opine that if both the parties in tussle were defending their causes in favor of the nation then there should be no difference of opinions in between the two contending forces. The fact is that the two forces have now acquired a posture that is diametrically opposite to each other.

The fact is also that the King being the guardian of the nation-state, perhaps would do well if he himself breaks the ice. If he does so would mean that he is really concerned for the system, the constitution and the nation at large.

After all, Nepal as a nation-state must initiate actions internally to correct the anomalies, whatever they are.

Equally true is that the agitating political parties too must think that some how or the other, it is they who should compromise with the King and vice versa.

If both grasp this million dollar advice, the tussle will vanish to the utter chagrin of those who wish to fish in Nepal’s troubled waters.

Will the King provide some indication to this effect in his Pokhara speech? Will the political parties prefer to patch up their differences with the monarch if he appeals for such a compromise?

Analysts hope that a sort of formulae is in the offing. Wait till Pokhara felicitations.

Beware Businessmen

The World Bank last week approved US$75.5 million credit for financial sector reform program to Nepal.

The project will be supported through the International Development Association, the World Bank’s concessionary lending arm, with a US$68.5 million credit and US$7 million grant.

Ken Ohashi, World Bank Country Director, Nepal in a statement released here on March 10, 2004 said, "In view of the slow progress in commercial banks’ debt recovery, some Executive Directors questioned whether the government is fully committed to taking tough reform actions, and hence the reluctance to support this project by several of them".

He added, "approval of this new credit is that the Bank stands ready to support these difficult reforms, but only to the extent that the authorities do their part, including the pursuit of large, willful defaulters with the utmost vigor".

Now the question arises as to who will be the next target.

Francophone Day Celebrations

Kathmandu: The 9th Francophone day is being celebrated throughout the world from 15th to 21st March.

The 20th March 2004 will be marked in the French speaking countries world-wide as the 33rd anniversary of the signature of Niamey that laid the foundation of the "Agency for Cultural and Technical Co-operation" reassembling the countries that use the French language on various account: as mother tongue, lingua franca, official language, instruction medium etc. This was stated in the press release issued by the Alliance Francaise, Kathmandu.

The main focus will be on promotion of the cultural and linguistic diversity of this universe, states the press release.

Adding further the press release states, "The Francophone consists of 500 million people across five continents with annual budget of 1 billion French Francs per country".

The Kathmandu based Alliance Francaise in cooperation with the Embassy of France is celebrating this event this Saturday evening at its premises in Tripureshwar.

The chief guest of the function is RPP Chairman, Pashupati S. Rana, who himself commands fluency in French language.

The French Ambassador, Monsieur. Claude Ambrosini,, is expected to address the function to mark the occasion.

JEF discusses impact of frequent Bundhs

Kathmandu: The Joint Economic Forum (JEF) organized and established by the Confederation of Nepalese Industries (CNI) held its First Meeting at Hotel Soaltee on 12th March 2004.

The meeting besides defining its own working procedure also held extensive discussions on the following agenda:
1. Evaluation of Financial Sector Reforms.

2. Adverse impact on business due to frequent bandhs.

The following are the members of the 'Joint Economic Forum'.

H.E. Mr. Keith George Bloomfield, Ambassador, UK, H.E. Mr. Keith Royston Gardner, Ambassador, Australia, H.E. Mr. Michael E Malinowski, Ambassador, United States of America, H.E. Mr. Rudiger Lemp, Ambassador, Federal Republic of Germany, H.E. Shree Shyam Saran, Ambassador, India, Hon'ble Dr. Yuvraj Khatiwada, Member, National Planning Commission, H.E. Mr. Zenji Kaminaga, Ambassador, Japan Mr. Basanta Raj Mishra, President, Nepal Association of Tour Operators, Mr. Bijay Ghimire, President, Society of Economic Journalists of Nepal, Dr. Bimal Prasad Koirala, Chief Secretary, HMG/Nepal, Dr. Bishwambher Pyakuryal, President, Nepal Economic Association, Mr. David J. Wood, Head of DFID Nepal, Mr. Donald Clark, Mission Director, USAID Mission to Nepal, Mr. Ken ichi Ohashi, Country Director, World Bank, Mr. Narendra Bhattarai, President, Nepal Bankers' Association, Mr. Ravi Bhakta Shrestha, IPP, FNCCI, Mr. Rudiger Wenk, Charge'd' Affaires a.i., European Commission, Mr. S. Hafeez Rahman, Country Director, ADB, Dr. Tilak Rawal, Governor, Nepal Rastra Bank, Mr. Binod K Chaudhary, President, CNI, Mr. Chiranji Lal Agrawal, Vice President, CNI, Mr. Tek Chandra Pokharel, Vice President, CNI, Mr. Pawan Kumar Golyan, Vice President (Finance), CNI, Mr. Narendra Kumar Basnyat, Convener, External Relations Committee, CNI, Mr. Rajendra Kumar Khetan, Convener, Policy Dialogue Forum, CNI, Mr. Min Bahadur Karki, Director General, CNI

Mahali Sagar debate: India throws ball in Nepali court

Kathmandu: As is known, Indian establishment possesses ready-made answers to Nepali allegations as and when it is made against the former.

This time the Nepali side expressed its concern over the Mahali Sagar issue and pat came a prompt reply that the plan itself have had a nod from Nepal in the year 2002 itself

"The design for the new escape was sent to the competent Nepalese authority for approval and it was so approved in December 2002. Shortly thereafter, the construction of the new gated escape was begun on the Indian side on the basis of agreed parameters", is how the Indian side defends itself on the issue.

The Indian establishment in Kathmandu defends its case through a press release issued on 15 March and reiterates:

"The Mahali Sagar is a reservoir partly in India and partly in Nepal containing water of the Masai Nala. The parameters of the Sagar were mutually agreed upon in 1876 between the then Governments of India and Nepal. The reservoir has two escapes in Indian territory which allow the water to flow out – one gated and one ungated escape. The gated escape was damaged some years ago and a new gated escape was sought to be built. The design for the new escape was sent to the competent Nepalese authority for approval and it was so approved in December 2002. Shortly thereafter, the construction of the new gated escape was begun on the Indian side on the basis of agreed parameters.

As the Nepalese side had desired that more water i.e., 102 cumecs of water, should be discharged through the escape, the new escape was designed to contain 15 bays with the following agreed overall parameters:-

· Full reservoir level – 92.76 meters above mean sea level

· Crest level or level of the bottom of the regulator – 91.60 meter above mean sea level

Increasing the number of bays from the earlier 5 to 15 makes no difference to the extent and depth of the reservoir as that is controlled by the height of the escape which is unchanged. Construction of the escape was completed in April 2003. The laying of the slab above the escape is now in progress and it covers around 6 out of 15 bays. None of the gates have been installed on this structure so far. A representative of the Embassy of India has visited the site and verified these matters. The Contact Officers of the two sides have recently met on the site and verified the status of the construction.

Thus all the construction is being carried out on the Indian side in full view of the Nepalese side and with the approval of and under information to the competent Nepalese Government authority. At present, there are puddles of stagnant water on the Nepalese side in about 28 hectares of land of about 20 cms depth and in about 10 hectares of land in Indian territory.

During the non-monsoon or dry season, crops are raised extensively on the reservoir bed in the Nepalese side and at present, standing crops of wheat and mustard are to be seen on the reservoir bed in the Nepalese territory. Even in the monsoon season, paddy cultivation is practiced in large areas of the reservoir on Nepalese side as the amount of standing water in those parts is suitable for paddy cultivation. During the monsoon, the average depth of water in the reservoir is around 3.38 feet (1.16 m). No Nepalese village or habitation is within the limits of the reservoir.

The canal system from this reservoir provides irrigation to 158 hectares of land in Kharif season and 118 hectares in the Rabi season, on the Indian side.

There are 3 other sagars or reservoirs close to the Mahali Sagar which are governed on similar principles and under similar agreements as the Mahali Sagar. It appears that the Mahali Sagar alone has generated controversy because some of the land of the reservoir has changed its ownership around three years ago. Whereas this land was owned earlier by the former ruler of Shohratgarh on the Indian side, it was sold 3-4 years ago to persons living on the Nepalese side. The new owners, it appears, are trying to ensure that the reservoir is made non-functional so as to maximize their use of the land, which is already available to them for farming for 8 months of the year.

The Government of India believes that cooperation on issues of inundation and mutually beneficial use of water resources can only be achieved through informed discussion with the bilateral institutional framework established for the purpose. It is in this spirit that we intend to approach any existing or future issues that may arise between our two countries".

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