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Strategy to pincer security

Kathmandu: First Bhojpur and now Beni. The security situation is aptly stretched. This is what the Maoists want to prove. And they do so with impudence. Curiously, the agitating political parties who claim no coordination with the Maoists pick up the mantle here.

On the one hand, they bunk demands from the security sector for increased investments in equipment and personnel as evidence of militarization while they gather their scattered workers to Kathmandu for a "decisive" agitation. The pincer tells on the people.

Both strategies aim to sabotage the King’s public felicitations. Undoubtedly, the Maoists bundh and the opposition of the agitating parties together press the security personnel hard. The security sector can’t complain that both Bhojpur and Beni were possible because of this. Indeed, the increased spurt of violence preoccupies the media well to highlight claims from the agitating parties that the elections are an impossibility.

It is now clear that the agitating parties will bank on their previous strategies to denounce any elections without their participation in government as fabricated. The Maoists will also do the same.

This is an oft resorted to tactics of political organization that actually junks the total notion of democratic elections in Nepal raising questions regarding the actual advantage of being in a government that conducts elections. But this is a salient feature that politics must evidently accommodate. And this is where the effort will concentrate in course of the conduct of the elections that must inevitably take place in-order to accommodate event he demands of change in the constitution.

Koirala differs with communist coalition partners

Kathmandu: President Girija Prasad Koirala’s political frustration must have gone up following the two events that showed him his political surface.

The first event is related with his call for a sort of merger of the congress-D in his party which was summarily ignored by his arch rival and detractor, Sher Bahadur Deuba, the President of Congress-D.

Deuba and his party men concluded that their party’s merger with the Koirala congress would be yet another suicidal move for them if they listened and acted as per the appeal of their former president.

Koirala’s appeal for a "home-coming" fall flat as Deuba and his followers in the party maintained that until and unless Koirala agreed to a sort of total "reunification" of the party at all the levels did not materialize, there was no meaning of such a unity. The second jolt Koirala was offered by Deuba and his party was the latter’s demand that Koirala must henceforth plead for the restoration of the Deuba’s government.

This was too much for Koirala for whom the party led by Deuba was nothing more than a bunch of people who had left him in the cold under some body’s influence and instigation. For a person who doesn’t recognize the very existence of Deuba’s party is being told to work in favor of the restoration of his detractor’s government for the unseating of which he too had a sizeable chunk of share.

These preconditions lay down by Deuba made Koirala’s unity move practically impossible. It was only natural that Koirala should feel that he was being challenged by his own political offspring. However, what Koirala perhaps does not understand or prefers not to realize that his political kids have already come of their age and that they would now prefer to talk to Koirala face to face for preserving their political rights that is due to them.

President Koirala received one more earth-shaking jerk from his long time associate, Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, one of the founding fathers of the congress currently led by Koirala.

"Koirala is my dangerous friend indeed", is what Bhattarai told last when he was approached as to what should be done with Koirala’s appeal for a unity move in the party.

Bhattarai bluntly told that the party currently led by his disciple, Deuba, was the real congress and that the Nepali Congress as a party got a vertical split some two years ago just on account of the adamancy and arrogance of Koirala and Koirala only.

Krishna Prasad Bhattarai went even further in disclosing that he had to quit the Congress only because of Koirala and that he continued to be his "dangerous friend".

This perhaps explains how Bhattarai honors Koirala in his inner heart.

Though Bhattarai spoke to the media men in a simple language, however, his selection of the words for Koirala does assume significance at a time when there is a debate on how to take Koirala’s appeal for unity.

Frankly speaking, those who were thinking "which way" to go have been provided with a direction albeit indirectly. A suggestion coming as it does from a seasoned leader of the sort of Bhattarai has definitely made them to think twice on Koirala'’ offer of unity.

This must have come as a set-back to Koirala’s freshly undertaken political move.

With all these set-backs, Koirala has plausible and justifiable reasons to smack foul in the whole affair that has ditched his unity moves.

No wonder that Koirala sees a "grand design" in it. This "abstract" design could have been framed by the UML or for that matter the Palace even.

However, in all honesty, President Koirala has hinted that the UML might not have digested the unity move for obvious political reasons. He is correct if he says so for it is the UML which will have to face the brunt of the unity of the congress at time of the polls. A divided congress, the UML calculates, would be in their interest which is a fact.

Underlying fact is also that Koirala pushed his own cards for unification considering the impending polls, if at all it takes place. In Koirala’s own calculation, if elections were near to impossibility at this juncture, however, to continue to reject the idea of participating in the elections ad infinitum would boomerang to a Democratic Party of the sort of the congress which he leads at the moment.

Perhaps it is this compulsion that forced the congress president to go in for a unity move that was sadly rejected by his detractor-Deuba, for seen and unseen reasons.

Hence it is natural that Koirala should now express his anger towards the UML and the rest of the smaller communist parties. It was not for nothing that Koirala simply boycotted a meeting of the agitating five party coalition presumably hinting the rest of the coalition partners that he differed with their ideas of soliciting Maoists support to press the monarch to yield to their demands.

Koirala’s boycott does tell so many things, though subtly. It does speak that Koirala thinks that UML is the main villain in his unity moves. Secondly, Koirala apparently concludes that he should not trust the communists, be it the UML or even the United People’s Front or the Maoists. For his, all the communists, big or small, mild or radical, all belonged to the same breed. It also speaks that in Koirala’s opinion, seeking the Maoists support to press the King hard would be the adoption of a very wrong method. Should this mean that Koirala possesses still respect for the King and that what he speaks against the King is just for the consumption of the public?

All these put together, it is natural that Koirala must have felt cheated by his coalition partners, more so by the UML, which, analysts presume, continues to play its dubious role in order to capture the Singh Durbar power corridors.

That the UML is playing a contradictory role gets reflected from the fact that while Madhav Nepal talks of the need of the Maoists support in their movement against "regression, his own party’s top-hat, Shri K.P.Woli, reiterates that "negotiations" with the King could still be held.

How to take these two conflicting and contradictory remarks coming as it does from the two stalwarts of the same party? It could well be a carefully charted out plan wherein Madhav is told to seek the Maoists support as a pressure tactics, then on the other, Woli has been instructed to chew his tongue vis-à-vis King.

Koirala is not a fool that the UML can take him for granted on all of their visible and invisible political moves.

Should this mean that there is a crack in the unity of the five coalition partners up against what they call, regression?

This notwithstanding, the five are giving an impression that they remain united. The fact could be other wise.

UN diplomat blows hot and cold against the monarch

Kathmandu: At a time when rest of the world is moving forward to achieve development targets set by their own governments or by the MDGs, Nepal is still looking for some clues on how to move forward in solving the insurgency issue.

In the recent past, Nepal has certainly shown the rest of world that if it cannot achieve the targets, it can surely be a classical example of a failed state which is what its fate is ultimately should the conflict continue in the fashion as it is now.

Be it the 30 years long Panchayati autocratic regime, under the active monarchy, or the 13 year long suffocating leadership of Koirala and Mr. Nepal, nothing tangible the nation could benefit.

Now at a time when every thing has failed as experts claim, Mohan Man Sainju, the vice-president of the National Planning Commission (NPC) for around 4 years (1982 onwards) has taken the pains to blame the previous government(s) plans for not being centered around the exploited and the oppressed ones, for example, the janajatis, dalits, women and extreme poverty stricken people of the nation.

Dr. Sianju-himself a failed planner, however, did not preferred to call his tenure at the NPC as a failed one. But he added, strong political will, commitment and strong leadership is the current necessity.

Mr. Sainju was speaking at a program organized by the Society for International Development-Nepal Chapter last week on "Millenium Development Goals: Meeting the challenges of Poverty Reduction".

The other speakers present on the occasion were top-notch of the likes of Dr. Harka Gurung, Dr. Shankar Sharma and Mr. Kul Chandra Gautam, Deputy Executive director of UNICEF.

The current vice-president of the NPC, Dr. Shankar Sharma agreed this time around that Nepal is in no position to achieve the targets in the allocated time frame. His reason to this remark as to everybody’s guess was "CONFLICT".

Mr. Kul Chandra Gautam, while giving his views sidelined himself of being associated with the United Nations and said, there is a great historic opportunity for the King having come to the throne in the most tragic circumstances in the life of his dynasty to transform the medieval institution into an institution for the 21st century".

Becoming more critical towards the monarchy he added " the monarchy of the 21st century has no choice but to cast its lot with forces of democracy" and said " there are a few examples of constitutional monarchies that remain and thrive even in the most advanced and progressive nations".

He also said " each of Nepal’s 3 political protagonists, the King, the Maoists and the parliamentary parties have something good to offer the people of Nepal".

He also urged the government and political parties to nominate some of their most senior and seasoned leaders and professionals to work on issues of reconstruction and development and said the Maoists too could join such a process when they come above ground. He added UN is always ready to facilitate and support such a round table conference.

Thus the UN diplomat had both sermons and warnings for the three protagonists which were the King, the parliamentary parties and the insurgents.

The Chairperson of the program Mr. Bishwa Keshar Maskey giving his opening remark said " In Nepal our past development efforts did some positive results in socio-economic areas but in the issues related to poverty reduction, social capital building and in socio-economic inclusion of development benefits and in governance issues remain inadequate".

Dr. Harka Gurung threw some light on the MDG related issues in the Nepali context.

The dialogue program was first ever of its kind held on the issue of Millenium Development Goals in Nepal.

Kudos to SID and its President Mr. Maskay!

What if the Maoists decide to support the five-party agitation?

Kathmandu: The Maoists are not yet a spent force as is being given to understand by the establishment led by Prime Minister Thapa.

The Myagdi incident that caused a colossal damage to the lives and property of the nation, does speak that the Maoists could have more such plans to attack different towns or headquarters at different intervals of time in the near future.

In effect, the insurgency had even declared their plans in advance that they had such plans and that they will now concentrate on attacking such towns in a disintegrated and centralized manner.

Curiously, they have been attacking town that are located in the mountains, for example, Bhojpur and now Myagdi. The difference is that while Bhojpur lies in the Eastern Mountains, Myagdi is in the western part of the country. This means that their strategy is to take the security forces by a ride as and when they will attack. The strategy could be to misled the security personnel and keep them guessing of the impending attack.

These two attacks have come well within a fortnight or so which defies the government’s claim that the other camp was just a weakened force which could easily be dismissed with.

The fact, as could be analyzed, is somewhat different than the government’s thinking.

The Bhojpur and the fresh Myagdi incident in more ways than one does suggest that resumption of the talks with the Maoists have become a need if the nation were to be protected from being thrown in a precipice. It is sad that Home Minister Kamal Thapa tells the media men that the Myagdi incident has capped the possibilities for the talks with the other camp.

Should this mean that Kamal Thapa prefers such more devastating attacks that allows a Nepali to be killed by some other Nepali?

The casualties on both the sides have been bleeding the hearts of peaceloving Nepalese. This is a fact. A responsible personality of the sort of minister Thapa must not have told the press in such a manner. It would have been great a news, analysts say, if the minister would have denounced the other camp for their violent action on Myagdi and could have still left some opening for the talks which the Maoists too apparently wish.

There have been some indications to this effect that the Maoists too presumably have concluded that they were fighting a war that neither side could win through the use of the Guns.

If what HR activists, Mr. Pathak and Dr. Mathura Shrestha, have told were to be believed then what could well be inferred is that the Maoists too were in the search for a "face saving" formulae or wishing for having a safe landing to the continuing imbroglio.

Analysts have reasons to believe what Mr. Pathak and Mr. Shrestha say for they are the ones who have had tete-a-tete with some top-hats of the insurgency only recently. After all why should these two acclaimed HR men tell a lie?

Any delay in bringing the Maoists to the negotiating table would mean further destruction of national property and loss of several innocent precious lives.

Analysts also opine that the delay in bringing the insurgency to the talks would mean to provide some space for the latter to think on whether to support the ongoing five party agitation?

If they decide to support the five party agitation then the consequences could well be predicted in advance which need no explanation.

A section of the Kathmandu analysts see meaning in the heightened violence acquired of late by the Maoists against the security forces. They say it could be a strategy to press the government for the talks and meet the State negotiators with a position of strength to extract greater political concessions. It could also be a tactics to exhibit their military superiority vis-à-vis the government forces. And finally it could also be a motive to create panic in the minds of the lay men who would ultimately appeal the government to invite them for talks.

Interpretations galore indeed.

Equally true is that the Maoists of late have acquired a different posture vis-à-vis the parliamentary parties now in agitation. A fresh note issued by the Maoist quarters have suggested the political parties to determine their camp at the earliest: the camp wherein they are or any other camp with which they were currently on a warpath. The suggestion is in the form of a warning as well. How the parties react to their suggestion/warning will have determined the fate of the five party decisive agitation that is to begin come next week.

Mature political analysts see the need for the King to act fast.

The fact is that the political parties are against him. The fact is also that the students have also been talking on a line that is different that what it used to be until a year ago. The Maoists, needless to say, don’t possess sympathies for the monarch.

When this is the situation, who else should initiate actions that arrests all these troubles. It is the King and the King only who can revert the situation in a friendly manner.

The King would do well, hope analysts, if he understands the gravity of the situation and acts accordingly that not only brings the insurgents to talks but also takes care of the grievances of the now agitating political parties.

The King must act fast.

RPP stalwarts make King’s task easier!

Kathmandu: Fresh political overtures from a section of the RPP quarters does hint that the King is being allowed space and a valid reason to sack Prime Minister Thapa.

Some RPP stalwarts, not in government and generally considered to be not close to the incumbent Prime Minister, Monday evening met here and repeated their formulae in order to arrest the constitutional and systemic aberrations that have gripped the nation of late.

Thapa’s declared detractor, Lokendra Chand, led the meeting in presence of yet another arch rival of the sitting Premier, P. Rana, who together with B.B.Thapa and Dipak Bohara arrived at a consensus that Prime Minister Thapa’s continuance in the executive post bode ill for the nation.

They reiterated that the current ailments could be dealt with only by the formation of an all-party government at the center which would not only conduct the elections but would also initiate talks with the Maoists.

This means that the patch-up recently arrived at in between Thapa and his party president, P.Rana, were for public consumption only and that Mr. Rana and Mr. Thapa had then agreed to disagree some time later.

The meeting of the RPP leaders at Mr. Chand’s residence assumes significance in the sense that such statements presumably make easier for the King to sack his Prime Minister who is a different political stuff who would not tender his resignation on his own.

The statement has come at a time when the King is being pressed from all quarters suggesting him to sack the Thapa government and facilitate the formation of a different sort of government that enjoys the consensus of all those parliamentary parties now in agitation.

Unsubstantiated reports have it that King Gyanendra too is well aware of the fact that Thapa has been a Himalayan failure and he too desired Thapa’s dismissal. However, the King needed some sort of support from the public and political parties and that here are some parties that have denounced Thapa for his failure in averting the threat posed to the country by the Maoists intermittent onslaughts.

The parties in agitation have demanded Thapa’s immediate resignation for his failure in Bhojpur and now in Myagdi.

The King has now reasons to sack Thapa for his failures in series.

Should this mean that the King will announce some thing very tangible from Pokhara that would satisfy the grievances of the political parties in agitation?

It is difficult to read the mind of the King. However, matured political observers maintain that the King is determined to sack Thapa come what may.

But will the King do so?

If he dares to do so will in all likelihood be in the larger interest of the nation and the people. Or else things will further deteriorate.

French assistance to continue: French envoy

Kathmandu: The Alliance Francaise in cooperation with the French embassy observed the tenth anniversary of teaching French language in Nepal, Saturday, that coincided with the Francophone day, March 20, each year.

Speaking on the occasion, the chief guest of the ceremony, Pashupati S. Rana, told the gathering that Nepal had been in touch with the French since the time of Prime Minister Bhimsen Thapa.

"France is a reliable partner of Nepal and we are very much thankful to the French people and government for their support being extended to this country on development ", said Rana—the RPP President.

The French Ambassador, Mr. Claude Ambrosini, assured the gathering that his country would continue to provide support to Nepal.

Ambassador Ambrosini dwelt at length on the importance of the celebration of the Francophone day.

The director at the AF, Ms. Chantal Lama, spoke of the growing desire of the Nepalese students to learn French language.

A cultural program followed the cocktail reception.

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