I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Coming down to crunch

Kathmandu: The very shaky grounds on which the current agitation against "regression" stands is illustrated by the furor created by thespian Krishna Prasad Bhattarai who upon return from the consultations with the King casually through his stake in the current gamble for Premiership. The major five-parties are stunned in the sense that Bhattarai is a congressman with a "Saint" image built by themselves and can’t be elbowed by either rival Girija Prasad Koirala or protégé Sher Bahadur Deuba and his appointment as Premier could well turn the clock back to the interim government of 1990 the subsequent constitutional clause, article 128 will in a roundabout way have been reactivated as per demand of the UML’s Madhav Nepal.

The irony is that KP’s statement has so enraged all parties that their public tirade against the monarch has increased and not subsided. They claim that this is a Palace sponsored game. Lost somewhere in the subtle hints at KP’s senility is the fact that it is not the Palace but LP himself who has casually played his game.

This acute vulnerability on part of the agitating parties emanates from the growing and consistent public recognition that what is deemed to be an anti-regression agitation is in actual fact a naked game for electoral government office the initiative for which the parties’ would or must retain for themselves. The King on his part remains clear in seeking their cooperation in the formation of government.

It is not surprising therefore that belligerent posture and republican rebukes notwithstanding must go to the Palace with no single candidate of their own. Hidden in the rhetoric of public demands and rebukes against the monarchy which the parties’ claim illustrates the question of principle of the appointment and not the appointment itself is the fact that the appointment sought is illusive within and among the parliamentary parties. Koirala wants himself in an electoral position so do Deuba and Madhav Nepal. The stalemate remains.

What is also known amidst this milieu is that the King can no longer allow the stalemate to remain.

Tussle Continues
Nepal: A failed state in the offing

Kathmandu: The political hotchpotch continues.

Both the contending forces, the King and the political parties currently in agitation, have indicated amply that they will not bow down until the other yielded to their declared stances.

If the political parties remain adamant on their demand that the King has to form a government from among them, the King too seems equally determined not to comply with the dictates of the parties in agitation.

By this time what has become abundantly clear is that both the King and the party leaders leading the agitation against regression possess a sort of disliking for each other.

The political parties who till the other day had been exhibiting their penchant for a tete-e-tete with the King even in private have suddenly under the pressure of the coalition partners in the coalition against regression changed their stance and now deem a meet with the monarch on a collective basis.

Contradicting signals emanate from the Palace in this regard, which neither says a straight no to the five parties demand for a joint meet nor has yet sent telephonic messages to the parties who appear all-dressed to rush to the Palace the moment such signal arrive.

In the process, the entire nation has become apparently the hostage of this ego-clash in between the Head of the State and the Political parties, which if true must be considered as an unfortunate incident that surely bodes ill for the nation.

That the King remains clear in his reiteration that he would not settle for less than having a new Prime Minister for the country who must be a clean one and who could also guarantee that he would initiate the elections by this year as promised by the monarch.

The search for such a clean prime minister continues. The King since all along the resignation of Prime Minister Thapa has been on the move to get one as sought by him. However, "Mr. Clean" is yet to emerge who could fit into the King’s scheme. Who could be Mr. Clean? Is a question that is being discussed here and there in Nepal’s political circles and even at the diplomatic receptions.

While the King’s search for Mr. Clean continues, the agitating political parties have more or less consoled themselves that it would not be them from the five party alliance who could be lifted as the nation’s next prime minister. This they conclude now by assessing the King’s firm determination that he would, come what may, bring in such a personality who so far has remained clean and enjoys a different image than those who so far ruled the country.

This gets reflected from King’s reiteration yesterday, Monday, at a Gokarna luncheon that if he were to induct a new prime minister from among the same corrupts and those who mis-governed the nation in the past the next moment. This he ventilated to a scribe in no uncertain terms.

This message is loud and clear, which clearly hints the King’s preference of a new man other than from among the five party alliances for the post of the prime minister. If it is so then what could be clearly concluded is that the King will perhaps not meet the five party alliance and even if he obliges to their demand for a joint meeting, the monarch will not commit himself to their proposals.

Its corollary would be that the rift that is already in between the King and the FPA would further widen facilitating further chaos in the country.

The King is not to yield under threat or pressures from the FPA. The FPA members too appear not to come to terms with the King on the latter’s terms and conditions.

The crisis is sure to take a dangerous turn if wisdom does not prevail on both the sides.

Independent observers dare to ask whether such adamancy on the part of the King and the political leaders were an appropriate move given the sagging morale of the nation and its population? Does it bode well for the nation? Some one has to sacrifice. After all politics is the game of power, which demands at times compromise and consensus to keep the nation, running.

But who will compromise? The King should or the parties?

Matured analysts say that both must come to terms at the earliest or else the country could soon be declared as failed state by the donor community which finds itself in a puzzling situation on how to take care of this country which is already on the verge of a total collapse should the clash persist for few more days.

Race for PM post is on

Kathmandu: Excessive lust for power has once again brought about a rift in the considerations of the political parties lined up in the agitation against what they call "regression".

The friendship and the unity in and amongst the FPA conglomerate remained intact until Prime Minister Thapa resigned from his post.

However, the next moment of Thapa’s exit from Singh Durbar apparently made the members of the FPA restive forcing them all to act on an individual basis in order to secure the post. The marathon for securing the Prime Ministerial post was so intense that the honorable members of the FPA preferred to forget their own commitments made earlier when the post of the prime minister was a bit distant from their approach. However, when the lucrative post became vacant, the members of the FPA considered going their own ways caring little for the commitments agreed upon in the early days of the agitation.

To boot, Madhav Nepal of the UML continued to be a consensus candidate as agreed upon by the FPA including Koirala, the commander of the movement against regression.

Now Koirala is a changed personality and as usual has exhibited his lust for the post Thapa left a fortnight ago. It is Koirala and his aides who have now been ventilating that Madhav’a choice was made then and now the consensus has shifted to the other competent candidate, read Koirala.

An annoyed Madhav and his followers have been reminding the Koirala camp that their candidate continues to be a man of consensus for nothing of that sort have so far been decided upon in changing the head for the post of the prime minister.

Madhav Nepal has already sensed a foul play being played against him and his party by the Koirala coterie. But as the discipline would demand from Madhav, he has to obey to the decision of his own commander whom he obeyed all along these fourteen months or so.

But Madhav is all set to break the discipline, sources say. A puzzled UML and its leaders have been assessing on how to counter to Koirala’s changed stance vis-à-vis the UML candidate for the premiership?

The strategy is ready.

The plan is to embarrass Koirala by aligning the party with Deuba congress in case it comes to power. If the King denied role to Deuba-Congress, the UML might also think on supporting Krishna Prasad Bhattarai if the thespian leader fits into the King’s scheme. The UML though is taken aback by Bhattarai’s desire to bounce back to power but yet if he is the PM, the party would presumably side with Bhattarai than to stick with a stubborn and power-lust Koirala.

The inner reality is that Bhattarai’s elevation to the post of the PM would tentatively mean Deuba’s come back to power. And since the UML is committed to support any such arrangement wherein Deuba or his party has its visible presence, the party would not hesitate to extend its indirect support and might seek some berths in the election-government.

A beaming Bhattarai since he met the King last week is secretly nurturing a desire of becoming the next PM if the King told him to do so.

That Bhattarai’s chances are fairly brighter than those who are on the race becomes clear from King’s wish wherein he says that he wants to have a clean Prime Minister. And Bhattrai is clean indeed.

Nevertheless, it is not yet clear as to where the King is hinting at: towards a clean Bhattarai or some one else who is clean but not in the political paraphernalia? Could be a retired judge? Who knows what is in the King’s mind.

By far what has become clear is that the FPA is yet to find a common candidate who could be pushed for the King’s perusal. Presumably it is this delay of the FPA in finding out a suitable consensus candidate, the King has stretched his days of consultations.

Monday at Gokarna camp the King met with a number of civil society members and listened to their personal proposals.

Those who met the King say that the monarch is excessively concerned with the state of affairs of the nation.

However, what is the guarantee that the King will go by the proposals of the civil society members?

Analysts maintain that the King definitely is concerned and wishes an early recovery to peace in the nation. But will he go by what others have advised him to do so or will he go on his own?

Be that as it may, Madhav Nepal’s case is a lost one. But then yet some one from his own party could be elevated to the rank of the prime minister. Could be K.P.Woli or Bam Dev?

The same applies to the congress. Talks are there that the King if does not invite Koirala then he could think of Ram Chandra Poudel and Mr. Bastola.

All guess works only.

Informed sources say that the political mess is expected to continue till Friday.

Prachanda finally favors talks under UN aegis

Kathmandu: As per our analysis made last week, Comrade Prachanda has once again reiterated the need to go in for talks with the establishment.

In a fresh statement issued by Comrade Prachanda dated May 16, the Maoists Supremo categorically hints that his party was in favor of talks. He however, pushes his conditions for such a talk to materialize. In Prachanda’s opinion, the talk must see the adequate representation from all political forces and from among the members of the civil society including the King enjoying the support of United Nations.

"We consider for the real solution to the political imbroglio, political parties, members of the civil society and the King should converge at one point utilizing the support from the UN", is what Prachanda says.

In his opinion, any political settlement excluding the Maoists would boomerang to the extent that it might escalate the ongoing civil war further.

Such an all party meeting, adds Prachanda, will act at a later stage as a joint political convention which would facilitate the formation of an interim government and that would later be entrusted to draft a new constitution.

"I believe such a joint forum could prove as a milestone in the present political context", continues Prachanda.

According to Comrade Prachanda, the selection of this or that prime minister would not solve the current Himalayan problems of the country but instead would compound the problems.

Any bid to isolate the insurgency by forging alliance in between the King and the political parties would not prove beneficial to those who wish to isolate us, adds the statement issued dated 16 May.

Prachanda has also urged to honor the existing power balance in the country and facilitate the draft of an altogether a new constitution that served the interest of the people.

" I hereby appeal all the political forces, the parliamentary parties together with the members of the civil society and the common men to contribute to the materialization of such a joint meeting", Prachanda concludes.

Now that a hint has come from the Maoist quarters that they were ready to come to the table if their conditions were met with. This is a good omen indeed for the battered country where peace has become a rare commodity.

However, what is equally interesting is that while on the one hand the Maoists wish the talks to be held, on the other, they have of late stepped up their violent activities which in effect raises concerns among the people including those who are hell bend on restoring peace.

Could be a pressure tactics to press the government to comply with their conditions. However, what is not yet clear is how the government will take Prachanda’s pronouncement of a role of the UN in the initiation of the talks. Prachanda’s idea is not bad but then what remains to be seen as to how the government responds to Prachanda’s proposal.

Mathew Kahane, UNDP Nepal office, is on record to have said that UN could come to the scene if both the rival parties agreed to its mediation efforts.

The tragedy is that Nepal is currently a government less country albeit run by the bureaucrats.

Nevertheless, indications from the other camp are encouraging.

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