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All eyes on HM's India visit

Kathmandu: A month long festival reprieve sees political jostling likely to achieve fruition after the Tihar season ends this week.

Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's faltering coalition will most likely be challenged soon from his UML partners who are taking an increasingly belligerent position on the need for government to demonstrate initiatives for talks prior to elections. This is in contrast to the standard Deuba position that he will go for the elections if the Maoists do not convincingly come forth for talks.

Sensing imminent political vacuum, Surya Bahadur Thapa emerged from a pre-Dashain audience with the King with a flurry of talks with the Nepali Congress and other parties after which his propaganda machine worked fulltime to declare that he was on the verge of forming a national government with even the Nepali Congress and the UML contributing. So far, however, his attempts to make his strategy convincing by distancing himself from the RPP has resulted merely in his RPP coterie supporting his call for a national democratic convention with resignations from the RPP.

Much is expected after the King's much postponed visit that seems to be much anticipated in New Delhi that adds to the expectations.

What is for sure is that the cabinet is troubled. This is largely on account of the nonchalance of the Maoists and the shaky nature of the coalition with the UML, which must be more determined for elections if it is to prolong its existence in government.

Deuba's firm strategy regarding the Maoists appears to have paid, however, it was the Maoists and not the government that come forth with an undeclared ceasefire this Dashain. This, despite the intense lobbying for an initiative by government. Government in fact gestured with a corresponding assurance that it would hold fire if the Maoists refrain held. Again, the security forces were ready to respond immediately after the Maoists went on the offensive as Deuba predicted. As of the moment, it does appear that the Deuba strategy has paid. Typically, the opposition clamor refuses to recognize this pressing the government still for a gesture on government's behalf. Strangely, the UML continues to play both ways.

The coming days thus are likely to test Deuba's adamant position that he will conduct elections if the Maoists are not so make convincing gestures that they are for lasting peace. Perhaps His Majesty's New Delhi visit will break ice.

King Gyanendra speaks his mind

Kathmandu: Better late than never, the constitutional monarch has spoken his mind on how the politics of the country should move and that under what conditions he would wish the Maoists to join the political mainstream.

King Gyanendra's remarks have come at a time when the Nepali academia, the political parties, the media and even the Maoists in the jungles had been demanding a sort of clear message from the monarch on certain matters related to the constitutional monarchy and the idea of going to constituent assembly elections.

The King has opened his mind clearly in that he now has spoken the basic elements that he would need in and for the country in order to even satisfy some of the key demands of the rebels.

The politicians and the Maoists have yet to comment on the monarch's fresh call, which he made on the eve of the 15th constitution day, Monday.

What is clear from the King's statement is that the system, now and later, should be based within the limits of a constitutional monarchy and a multi-party order in the country. In saying so the King also pushes his idea that he will not settle for less than the key fundamentals stated above. Hidden in the same message is that he would by all means continue to remain as a constitutional monarch under all circumstances. This message is perhaps for those who claim that the King in the recent years had crossed the limits stipulated in the 1990 constitution for him.

Yet another point that the King has preferred to air for public consumption and also for the rebels is regarding his views vis-à-vis the constitution. Significantly, the King summarizes his view on the constitution, the present one or any other constitution that the people would wish to draft in the future, by saying that "any constitution were a means and not an end in itself. In saying so the King implies that even if Nepal as a nation state resolves to go in for a new constitution in order to satisfy the overall population, the new constitution thus drafted might be criticized by some and could have the same fate as what has been with the 1990 constitution. Academicians are quick to extract yet another message from the King's views on the constitution that he would go in for greater reforms in the existing constitution instead of drafting an altogether a new constitution as demanded by some political forces including the Maoists. What is also clear from the King's remarks is that no constitution on earth is bad. In saying so he wishes to imply that it is not the constitution that does injustice to the laymen but it is those who implement it in practice. This means that the King charges the politicians and the men in governments to have twisted the constitution that suited to their political interests and that he in no way could be charged for having trampled the constitution.

That the King is not happy with the managers of the system who ruled the country for all along the past fourteen years gets reflected from his saying, "the 1990 constitution had been promulgated with the objective of ensuring social, political and economic justice for the people". In saying so the King clearly hints that nothing of those sorts were achieved for the people and that the objectives of the 1990 constitution remained a day-dream for the common people. The hidden message is that it is not the monarchy but the politicians that have denied the people their guaranteed political, social and economic prosperity. This means that the King still is unhappy with the political parties and its leaders and brushes aside all the allegations that it is the monarchy that has been a stumbling block for the upliftment of the Nepalese people.

Most pleasingly, the King too wants permanent peace restored in the Kingdom when he says that the people can't remain under the chaotic circumstances and that violence has got to be contained and peace maintained for all time to come. This means that the King is in favor of talks with the Maoists for the restoration of peace.

Summing it up what could be concluded is that the King is in favor of peace; bring the Maoists to the table; he would not mind in going even for a constituent assembly provided the Maoists tolerate constitutional monarchy and a multi-party order; that he is yet to reconcile with the political parties and the leaders; he sees the constitution not doing justice to the people and that any new constitution remains prone to criticisms from certain interested quarters; that he has never crossed his constitutional limits and thus debunks the allegations that he has acted unconstitutionally more often than not; and that he was ready to cooperate with the political parties if Nepal as a nation state were to march ahead in the path of progress together with the Maoists.

Now what remains to be seen is how the political parties and the insurgents react to the King's constitution day message. It would be more interesting to listen to how the insurgents comment on King's statement.

Deuba's days numbered; Thapa in action

Kathmandu: Some political pundits claim that the incumbent Prime Minister continues to be in the good book of the King.

Others debunk this claim and instead maintain that Deuba's days are numbered in government.

Interpretations vary from brains to brains which is only but natural in a democratic setting.

However, available reports say that a big political change awaits this country upon the King's return from India visit. What is the basis for such assumption, analysts fail to understand. Nevertheless, taking into account the political leverage that India enjoys in Nepal's political games one would not be surprised to witness such a earthshaking change in the country's politics.

Those who maintain that Deuba is being sacked soon after the Tihar festivals push the reasons that since Deuba neither could bring in the Maoists to the negotiating table nor could even declare the elections as per the "instructions" of the monarch at time of his "re-appointment" some five months ago.

Others say that since Deuba is planning to declare the dates for the elections King Gyanendra should allow Deuba a free hand to proceed with his idea of having elections should the Maoists prefer no-talks with this establishment as they have been hinting in the recent weeks.

However, looking at the pleasant mood of Deuba at the informal receptions, it could be safely said that the Prime Minister appears confident of his longer tenure in government and that he has several cards under his sleeve to avert a crisis for his government.

Nevertheless, Tuesday's earthshaking explosion in town provides an inkling into the line of thinking presumably of the rebels (the Maoists have yet to take the responsibilities for the bombing that rocked the building of the Sanchaya Kosh located close to the RNAC premises) over Deuba's insistence on having the elections soon if the Maoists brush aside the idea of having talks with the government in Sigh Durbar.

The explosion has come close on the heels of Deuba's declaration that the dates for the elections would be declared soon. A beaming Deuba told this to media men Monday evening and the next afternoon the explosion.

The explosion, if it were an act of the rebels, does hint so many things on the part of the Maoists. Firstly, the explosion hints that the Maoists were very much present in the capital and that should they so desire can make any targets of their choice. Secondly, the explosion does hint that they were against Deuba's idea of going to the polls prior to a final settlement of their key demands were met with by the government. Thirdly, the explosion could also have been an expression of the Maoists suggesting the government to prepare itself for meaningful talks with them or else face the consequences. Finally and most importantly, the explosion has come at a time when a day before King Gyanendra has made certain comments on the constitution.

Clearly, the Maoists will not allow the elections to be held until they force the government to yield to their demands. And this is what the political parties in the streets too have been saying. They say that elections could only be held in a peaceful environment, which required Maoists mercy. The UML, a partner in Deuba's government, is pressing the government for announcing a ceasefire unilaterally hoping that such an act of the government might prompt the other camp to declare the same.

Whether Deuba is really in a mood to go in for the elections so that derailed constitutional processes come back to its original track or is sending signals to the Maoists that if they did not come to the talks soon might lose the bus.

It is also unclear as yet as to what is in effect behind Deuba's declaration that he would soon declare polls? Is it a ploy to tie the hands of the monarch from sacking him much the same way he was sacked some two and a half years ago for having not yet been able to conduct the elections as per the King's instructions? Is he playing a game only to save himself from the possible wrath of the King?

Wild rumors in Kathmandu indicate that the RPP leader S.B.Thapa could once again bounce back to power. Unconfirmed reports have it that the Palace might elevate once again the ranks of Thapa assuming that Thapa in government could handle the Maoists issue cleverly should they insist for a sort of referendum to decide through a popular vote on whether the nation needed a constituent assembly or not?

Thapa, known for his par-excellence conspiratorial politics and maneuvering capabilities, has suddenly become active and restive too. What makes him so and that too so suddenly will have to be watched. Things hopefully will take shape well after King's India visit.

Germany allocates €13.0 million for poverty-oriented programs and projects

Kathmandu: The Nepalese-German government negotiations held recently were characterized by partnership-based dialogue on the way to development cooperation should be designed in the setting of the current conflict. The country is increasingly suffering from serious side effects and consequences as a result of the Maoist rebellion, says a press release issued simultaneously in Kathmandu and Berlin dated 6 November, 2004 by the German embassy in Kathmandu

The press release reads in part:

Germany is supporting Nepal in implementing its development plans, which have been laid down in a Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS). The German government shares the growing international concern at the continuing crisis. During the negotiations it was confirmed – in line with the position of Nepal’s other partners – that success in the long-standing program of cooperation with Nepal would depend upon the strengthening of democracy, the resumption of the peace process, and swift action to improve the human rights situation.

The press note adds that ""For cooperation in 2004 and 2005, Germany has committed a total of €13.0 million in grants for the Kingdom of Nepal. The funds are intended primarily for direct poverty reduction. A program for selected rural districts is envisaged with the intention of improving the food situation of poor population groups; it is to provide people with short-term employment opportunities and open up access to long-term sources of income. Appropriate financial services will complement these efforts. Together with ongoing activities for the expansion and consolidation of health services, the efforts are also intended to strengthen people's ability to deal with the circumstances of the conflict, to make use of existing opportunities, and not to lose faith in the hope of new prospects for their lives.

Urban populations, too, are increasingly in need of assistance, takes note the release. Increased migration to urban centers is leading to increased poverty. Together with groups of local citizens and urban administrations, special support programs with employment effects are being planned and implemented. The allocation of €13.0 million is earmarked for poverty-oriented programs and projects.

Nepal is an LDC and, with a per capita income of about US $230 (2002), one of the poorest countries in the world. Continued and higher growth, which is urgently needed, is in jeopardy as a result of the conflict. As a long-standing partner of Nepal, Germany wants to help meet that threat.

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