I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Who will fill the vacuum?

Kathmandu: Things are shaping up. Sooner or later the consensus is that elections must take place. Whether or not it is declared, elections even for parliament will take place with a section advocating constitutional change. In this sense, elections will directly or indirectly for a Constituent Assembly. The current constitution gives sole responsibility for any change in the constitution to the parliament.

This election reality gives impetus to organizational moves in the country. Reality is that the Maoists will impact the elections whether or not they agree to it. The Maoists thus must sustain their organizational presence and so the increased violence. If the States' response is adequate enough to make such violence costly, the alternative is the talks.

Organizational lines must thus be drawn. The four party movements against the current government has thus announced the revival of their street presence. The slogan for a changed constitution and a republic having been usurped by the Maoists, this quarter must pressure for change in government to retain their organizational effect. The Nepali congress, it may be recalled, has never contested elections or acceded to poll results without participation in the government.

Having cornered itself in the context of interpreting article 127 as merely the revival of the now dissolved parliament, elections without participation of the congress in government will most likely result in a vacuum. The race is on to fill this organizational vacuum.. It is here that former Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa has stepped in. Drawing his credibility from his latest audience with the Monarch, Thapa's new party gambit has met with lukewarm response. Girija babu is most unlikely to allow Thapa this initiative and so his broadside against Thapa. Of course, the RPP opposition is clear. Whatever the numbers, Thapa's initial workers are from the RPP>

Nevertheless, the organizational vacuum remains. Given that there are limits to the numbers of political workers and given that existing leadership have exhausted credibility, it is only that organization that provides a more convincing and credible leadership option that will attract the remaining political workers and galvanize currently dormant ones that will fill the vacuum.

Whatever, the race is on.

Deuba's dinner diplomacy, an act in desperation

Kathmandu: Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba is in the news.

He is in the news not because he has scored high marks in politics but for his simple follies that attract the media attention and hence he is in the news.

His freshly acquired policy of throwing "dinner" to those whom he considers were vital for his own longevity in government is showing bad results.

The fact is that Deuba began his dinner arrangements first by inviting the monarch itself last week and the monarch attended as a matter of simple courtesy. However, rumors are that the monarch did attend to Deuba's dinner only on condition that he resign at the earliest.

Rumors have it that the King accepted to attend to Deuba's dinner only when the former was assured by Deuba through some high placed authorities that should he fail in materializing King's instructions made at time of his assumption of the office of the prime minister well within a month or so, he would obey to the fresh wishes of the constitutional monarch.

Whether the monarch put such harsh conditions prior to attending to Deuba's dinner is yet to be verified, however, what is for sure is that looking at Deuba's increased inclination in throwing dinner party to his coalition partners in series does speak of different things.

Deuba perhaps has reasons to rejoice from his dinner parties, but question arises how long he would continue with such expensive feasts in order to continue in government?

The fact is that neither Madhav Nepal nor Pasupati Rana could be trusted for long as they both possess their own political agenda which is only but natural in politics. After all, what political benefits the UML will have if the Maoists attended to the talks? The UML maverick, Madhav Nepal, knows well that if the Maoists attended the talks would mean the automatic weakening of the already weakened UML as a political party. More so, the UML and its leaders are convinced that if the Maoists join the main stream politics one fine morning and decide to participate in the general elections then it is not the congress nor the RPP which would have to bear the brunt but it would be the radical communists cutting the votes of the communists.

Analysts are clear in concluding that the UML would wish the Maoists either delaying the talks or at best attend to the talks only after the UML and the Maoists strike a secret deal prior to the elections, if that does happen at all by the grace of the Almighty. Add to this, the incumbent prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba must not forget that the persons he has been inviting at the dinner parties tentatively all were his political rivals in the coalition and have been eying prime ministerial posts should some political disaster befall on Deuba and the latter is either sacked or forced to resign. Madhav Nepal and Pasupati Rana, movers and shakers of the present coalition conglomerate of Deuba, very well understand that Deuba has already become a sinking-horse and that his fall was imminent sooner or later. This makes it clear that Deuba, whether he throws dinners or luncheons to his rivals in their honor, the personalities enjoying his parties would not settle for less than allowing Deuba to go to the dogs.

By the same token, the monarch too appears to have already framed a structured policy in his mind. A mere dinner would not please the King as the latter knows that his loyal prime minister has miserably failed in materializing to his two point instruction: holding of the elections and bringing the rebels to talks.

Analysts believe that the King will not settle for less that demanding Deuba's outright resignation soon. He can't wait for an indefinite period.

Should this mean that Deuba's days for being dubbed again as an incompetent prime minister is round the corner? Nevertheless, the million dollar question remains: how long the King will continue with such political experiments that have so far not yielded positive results?

Analysts wish to suggest the King to act fast as the situation is fastly going out of hand. It is neither in the hands of the lame-duck prime minister nor in the hands of the politically divided political parties.

What if the King invited all the leaders of the political parties at his Palace and sought their collective views to restore peace in the country?

The King is perhaps informed of all these sad happenings that have created panic in the minds of the common men here and there. It's the King's turn to act taking all into confidence.

Donors glorify army's role?

Kathmandu: The Heads of mission of the EU, United States, Australia, Norway, Canadian Cooperation office, Swiss Agency for Development, SDC, and UN, to recall, issued a press release dated 11 November, wherein the countries and the development agencies made fervent appeal to the Maoists and the government as well to work constructively and with determination towards creating an environment conducive for negotiations and dialogue.

The statement is faultless except that the signatories of the press release knowingly or unknowing have made certain blunders which analysts prefer to point out for their perusal.

The fact is that the paragraph which reads, " at the same time, we strongly appeal to the government, the political parties, the Royal Palace and the Royal Nepal Army to commit themselves to a joint approach in this respect".

Fine!

However, the stress provided to the Royal Palace and more specifically to the Royal Nepal Army to commit for a joint approach is somewhat awkward.

The fact is that the press release gives an impression that the signatories consider, or at least have concluded internally, that the Palace and the Army were two separate formidable forces that must be acknowledged for a negotiated settlement with the Maoists. The Palace is a forces indeed even its detractors have recognized this hard reality. However, the international community's special reference of the Royal Nepal Army recognizing it as if it were a separate and different political entity not falling in the jurisdiction of the government in Singh Durbar is misleading or at least tends to mislead the people.

The fact is that this appeal from the international community has come at a time when the RNA has been repeatedly reiterating that it is well under the command of the government and that it is acting as per the instructions of the government.

The appeal of the international community, however, implies that the RNA should be also convinced well in advance and that any settlement with the Maoists would not be complete if the RNA's inner minds were neglected prior to the talks with the Maoists.

The fact is that the RNA is under the defense ministry and the defense minister is the prime minister himself and thus what could logically be deduced is that the RNA is well under the control of the government.

However, the appeal does talk separately of the good will of the RNA as well in this regard. Should this mean that the international community concludes that the RNA is not what it speaks or exhibits through statements? Does this mean that the RNA holds key to the resumption of any peace process with the Maoists and that until and unless the RNA provided green signals, the talks could not proceed even if the other stakeholders form a consensus? Does this mean that as per the conclusion of the international community, the RNA is already a force, which must be convinced prior to any talks with the Maoists? Is not it an act that unnecessarily glorifies the role of the RNA?

Analysts presume that the leaders issuing the press statement must have found some valid reasons in mentioning the names exclusively which they could have neglected altogether.

So what in essence the international community wishes to indicate? Keep on guessing.

Talks with the King
Maoists puzzling preference

Kathmandu: The spokesman of the Maoists insurgency, Krishna Bahadur Mahara, is a different political creature presumably.

However, what is for sure is that whatever he says must have been backed by his high command or else he would not dare to speak the unthinkable.

Mahara bluntly stated last week through a statement that his party would wish to have straight talks with the monarch.

As if this were not enough to boggle the minds of the Nepali intellectuals, Mahara went on to declare that "had they talked to the King in the past, issues regarding the conflict would have already been sorted out".

Analysts draw some meaningful inferences from what Mahara said recently.

Firstly, in the Maoists scheme of things, the King is a force who holds key to the settlement of the issue. In saying so, Mahara wishes to hint that talking to Tom, Dick and Harry in the government would have no meaning in its truest sense of the term and thus appears to have decided to ventilate the inner feelings of the insurgency.

Secondly, knowingly or unknowingly, Mahara is enhancing the prestige of the King. Mahara understands it or not but then his statement does speak that in the given context the role of the King can't be dismissed. In addition, Mahara prefers the King to act in settling the overly stretched issue even if he, read the King, had to cross the constitutional limits. This means that the insurgency would not mind if the King crossed his constitutional limits provided such endeavors favored the Maoists aims and objectives.

Its negative corollary would also be to show the international community that the King could cross the limits should he so desire.

Analysts remain puzzled to know as to why the Maoists prefer the King to take the initiatives?

Does this mean that they have concluded internally that the concessions that they are demanding from the state could only be given by the King and hence it should be the King and the King only with whom they can talks?

Question arises as to how a monarch who is committed to a constitutional monarchy could venture to go extra miles as demanded by the Maoists?

It is in this context the fresh declaration of the high-level peace committee has to be understood which said in part that the HPC would soon come up with some brilliant formulae that would try to accommodate even the main demands of the Maoists. Should this mean that the King has agreed to go in for constituent assembly elections, which is what has been the prime demand of the insurgents? It will have to be watched as to how the constitutional monarch satisfies all including the Maoists without crossing his stipulated constitutional limits?

US and India Discuss Cooperation

Kathmandu: Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs Christina B. Rocca met with Indian Joint Secretary (Americas) S. Jaishankar today, November 22, at the Department to discuss the U.S.-India relationship.   They agreed to work together to advance the relationship along the positive lines of increased cooperation over the past two years.  The two senior officials noted the United States and India are working closely together to strengthen the global economy, solidify economic and commercial ties, and make progress in the war against terrorism and other global issues of concern, such as trafficking in persons. 

Assistant Secretary Rocca and Secretary Jaishankar also reviewed progress in the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP), one of several initiatives underway to strengthen a deep and comprehensive bilateral relationship between India and the United States.  Both sides stressed the importance of making steady progress on Phase II of the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership.   The NSSP will strengthen high technology trade and cooperation in civilian nuclear safety and space, and promote a dialogue on missile defense. 

The two senior officials also reviewed the progress in strengthening bilateral trade in high technology, the subject of last week's interagency meetings at the Department of Commerce, and other U.S. government initiatives to strengthen cooperation with India across a broad range of fields. (USIA Press release) 

Construction of friendly bridge at Mechi River

Kathmandu: Under the joint aegis and the active initiation of the Nepal-India Friendship Association and India-Nepal Friendship Association, a friendly bridge is being constructed in Mechi river, that would connect Bhadrapur with Galgalia, India.

High level political figures from both the countries have exhibited their keen interest for the construction of this bridge which would immensely benefit the people of both the countries.

Nepal will be benefited immensely, say the locales of Bhadrapur.

They say that upon the completion of this friendly bridge, Nepal can easily import goods from Calcutta port straight to Bhadrapur and thus this town in Mechi zone could well become the gateway for imports and exports to and from Nepal.

Noteworthy is the revelation that B'desh border from Bhadrapur is only at a distance of 19 kilometers. The first entry point in B'desh is Titulia.

The bridge upon completion could also enhance the exports from Biratnagar as from here the distance to Bhadrapur is only 90 kms. Pleasingly enough, India has agreed to construct Biratnagar-Rangeli-Bhadrapur road.

As briefed by Dilli Ram Nirvik, a Journalist from Jhapa.

Bagar Foundation award

Kathmandu: The Bagar Foundation, Nepal, has announced that it would honor some noted literary and business personalities with its 2061 award.

Those who have been selected for this award are Dhanush Gautam; Boond Rana, Dr. Rajendra Bimal, Shayam Sharma, Mod Nath Prashrit, Hem Raj Gyawali, senior poet Krishna Joshi, Bijaya Bhattarai, Hari Prasad Rimal, Urmila Bhojpure, Bal Krishna Bhattarai and noted industrialist and business man, Banbari Lal Mittal, it is learnt from a press release issued by the Foundation.

ADB favors women empowerment

Kathmandu: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Nepalese government concluded discussion on a proposed Gender Equality and Empowerment of Women Project that would promote economic, social, legal, and political empowerment of poor rural women, including ethnic and low-caste women. Although the negotiations have concluded, this Project is still subject to consideration by ADB’s Board of Directors.

The Project aims to improve the socioeconomic conditions of poor rural women through a process of economic, social, legal, and political empowerment.

The project components comprise economic empowerment, legal empowerment, social empowerment, and institutional strengthening and project management. The components are mutually supporting to promote a virtuous circle of empowerment and socioeconomic improvement among poor rural women.

The proposed project will cover 15 core districts – 8 in the Midwestern and Far Western regions and 7 in the Central Region – which represent the poorest and most disadvantaged areas of Nepal, and where gender discrimination is pervasive and deep.

The Project is due for consideration by ADB’s Board in December. If approved, the Project should be forthcoming in 2005. (ADB Press Release)

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