I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
New alignments in making

Kathmandu: The efforts seem to be to seek at least temporary relief in the insurgency regardless of the much talked about talks that have yet to be take place with the Maoists. Relief is sought for the festival season. Whether the Maoists will grant it or not, pressure on government builds to at least promise unilateral ceasefire on part of government in order to provoke a response from the Maoists for Dashain.

Whatever this development if it comes about is hardly likely to impinge on the much talked about talks. It is evident that the Maoists will not let go their armed presence in the bulk of the country and the government is not going to go back to the barracks unless something is done about the armed presence by the Maoists.

Prime Minister Deuba has now promised that elections will take place if it must regardless of the insurgency and so the Maoists will look into the possibilities of how their armed presence will be made to affect such elections to their advantage.

The contending parties will be the Deuba Congress, its partners in the government, namely, the UML, the RPP, the Sadbhavana (Mandal), the NMKP (Rohit). Of course, the Girija congress, the UPF and the Sadbhavana splinter may also will not be able to ignore the elections out rightly. If the UML remains in government uptil the election time, the Maoists will probably be eying to woo the Girija congress with the advantage of Koirala’s belligerence. This possibility makes evident that the opposition demand for talks will be more virulent and politics on the streets will center around this.

If the UML wants the advantage of the streets, the likelihood that it will make issue of the talks to distance itself from government becomes thus imminent regardless of its current standpoints.

This being what it is, it is not for nothing that public anticipation must turn towards developments that will follow after the King’s visit to New Delhi. This will have taken place after the festival season and politics will then be geared towards a newer direction.

Comment and Analysis
King Gyanendra favors peace and resumption of talks

Kathmandu: The constitutional monarch appears, better late than never, to have realized that it was time that he came into action or else the country will slide further down the hill.

It is perhaps this realization that prompted King Gyanendra to summon the high command of the High level Peace Committee at the Palace Monday evening.

In doing so the monarch has tried to send signals both within and without.

King Gyanendra's exclusive meeting with the leaders of the HPC who fortunately compose the government under Deuba has come at a time when the Nepali population as well as the international community based in Kathmandu had been questioning as to what could have restricted the King in not initiating activities that could well have a positive impact on the overall situation in the country?

"The King as constitutional monarch who is concurrently the guardian of the nation must exhibit his sincerity towards the resumption of peace-talks with the rebels in order to save the nation from going to the abyss", is what Western diplomats based in Kathmandu had been ventilating of late.

Fortunately, the King realized that it would be too late if he did not act on time and thus he decided to see them collectively and thus he has initiated a process which if continued bodes well for the political health of the nation.

Now that the King has met the leaders of the HPC, the Maoists must have got some message from this meeting that was held in the Palace Monday evening.

The King by meeting the HPC members has hinted that he was with them and that in doing so he has tried to hint to the other camp that most of the clumsy questions posed to the Deuba government by Prachanda stood perfectly answered.

The King-HPC members' meeting also does amply hint that the King was also very keen to observe the resumption of the peace process with the rebels. The meeting in more ways that one sends signals to the other camp that whatever the government says or does or writes to them has the required mandate or approval from the constitutional monarch and that the Maoists now could talk with the government without any suspicion for the government not only enjoys the King's approval but also commands authority over certain institutions whom the Maoists say to possess loyalty for the royal institution only.

The King by meeting the political leaders now housed in the peace committee has not only tried to enhance their political image but has also indicated the other camp that the men who will be talking to them were all equipped with authority and that they can negotiate with them on all issues including that of the constituent assembly.

Madhav Nepal said upon return from the Palace that he did not find any "political reservations" in the minds of the monarch hinting that the King would apparently go by what the peace committee decided at time of the talks. Most importantly, Mr. Nepal, talking to Dristi weekly has said that so far he has found both the King and the Army supportive of the peace talks. He further claims that neither the King nor the army have so far pressed the committee on any count or have commented against the holding of the talks.

Mr. Nepal who is known for his controversial statements has suddenly begun talking in favor of the King and the army. His statement that he found neither the army nor the King against the talks does hint that he of late has developed a sort of "love" for both of the institutions whom he considered enemies till the other day. Mr. Nepal's change in perception vis-à-vis the Palace and the army is not only meaningful but amply significant as well politically speaking. His sudden change in stance must have irritated some of his declared rivals and detractors in the political scene.

Moreover, how the Maoists react to Mr. Nepal's praise in favor of the RNA and that of the King will have to be carefully watched. It would be also interesting as to how the political parties reigning supreme in the Ratnapark Island will react to Madhav's fresh political overtures.

All in all, the King's meeting with the HPC members will apparently embolden the committee members to proceed with confidence and authority, which could apparently convince the other side that they were talking with a committee that was not only powerful enough to face their agendas at the negotiation table but also enjoyed the blessings of the monarch.

However, what King Gyanendra told the members of the HPC on his perception regarding the constituent assembly is not yet clear. What is also not yet clear is that how the King thought of the announcement of a unilateral ceasefire by the government as the latter is being pressed none other than a very influencial member of the HPC, Madhav Nepal.

In sum, the King appears positive. He has hinted that he was ready to cooperate the HPC and the government provided the efforts brought "positive peace" in the nation.

Unconfirmed reports have it that the Deuba establishment is ready to announce a ceasefire soon with the hope that the Maoists too would reciprocate keeping in view the approaching festival season.

Analysts presume that wisdom will prevail on both the sides.

Emergence of Kathmandu-Washington-Delhi triangle

Kathmandu: Nepal as a Nation-State has some credible reasons to be happy over the fresh political developments in her neighborhood vis-à-vis the Maoists insurgency.

While the United States of America, the lone super power, had from the very beginning hinted this Kingdom that she would do all the needful in tackling the Maoists issue even if she had to support Nepal militarily and in effect the US did support Nepal as per its commitments. Needless to say, the US never seduced the government to go in for a sort of war with the Maoists. This policy appears to remain unbroken.

The US support irritated the Maoists radicals to the extent that the latter began propagating that the entire Nepali establishment were guided by the dictates of the United States of America. The insurgents came heavily down against the US policy towards Nepal time and again and in the process made certain US establishments their targets and some of its officials were killed by the Maoists. The latest being the bombing of the American center which they are yet to take the responsibilities.

It could be a mere supposition indeed but the fact is that the US line of thinking vis-à-vis the Maoists and the Nepali establishment appear closer to each other, if not identical.

For example, the United States of America discards the theory of "mediation" by any third party which is coincidently the posture taken by the Deuba establishment.

The US says that it would not mind a sort of "facilitation" by a third party instead of mediation. The Deuba set-up too appears close to this American theory but has yet to spell it out in clear terms.

The Americans deduce that the Maoists have yet to exhibit their sincerity for a multi-party democratic set up and maintain that the rebels were providing signals that their real goal is "one party" rule.

The Nepali establishment together with the major political parties too has been demanding a commitment for the democratic order from the rebels, which is not yet forthcoming. Instead, the Maoists at times hint that they will not settle for less than what they call a republican order in Nepal. Nevertheless, to recall, the Maoists have recently hinted that they respect the multi-party system which they ventilated while sending six questions to the Deuba government last week. However, the rebels are yet to declare their firm commitments for the system now in place.

The US favors secret talks with the Maoists as and when it happens. Prime Minister Deuba is on record to have said the other day in Pokhara that the talks with the Maoists will be secretly held which even the media could not get an inkling of the event.

The US in the process has indicated that there was no threat to democratic system either from the King or for that matter the Nepali Army. If Madhav Nepal were to be believed to what he said Monday evening upon his return from the Palace after a meeting with the King, Ambassador Moriarty's assurance ( see TKP dated 4 October, 2004) also comes true. To recall, Madhav Nepal said that he found both the King and the army positive for the peace talks, which implies that the system remained safe and that neither the King nor the army would pounce on the prevailing system of governance in the country.

Significantly enough, Ambassador Moriarty indirectly signals the monarchy to mend his differences with the political parties and says that "it can't stand by itself; it needs to work with legitimate political forces".

In saying so, Ambassador presumes that the King in the recent months did ignore the role of the political forces and that now he should correct his actions.

Not very surprising, the major political parties now in the streets too wish that the King proceeded taking them all in confidence. The message is that if the King and the legitimate political forces came closer, it would enhance their capabilities while negotiating with the Maoists. There is also a hidden message in the US thinking that if these major forces came closer would easily alienate the Maoists to the extent that the latter would be pressed hard to come to the negotiating table.

Surprising though it may appear, the fact is that the US line of judgment is not against the talks, which is what the government here is also reiterating time and again. However, what is also very clear, by implication, is that both would prefer to go to any extent if the Maoists rejected the offer of talks and continue to terrorize the population much the same way that they have been doing now.

Now let's take up the Indian stance now.

India wants no foreign mediation in Nepal, not even that of the UN for its own exclusive reasons. The US line is the same. Nepali establishment has made it abundantly clear that she can do it on its own.

India now sees the insurgency as a threat to its own security. This is what Nepal had been convincing India from the very beginning. India now realizes the insurgency as a common threat.

India had been unequivocally telling Nepal that she wished the continuation of multi-party democracy under a constitutional monarchy. The US is committed to this consideration.

The Indian authorities have already equipped Nepal with lethal weapons, the US only recently managed yet another consignment of weapons after its information was attacked on September 10.

All put together what comes to the fore is that at the moment Washington, New Delhi and Kathmandu constitute a triangle that is clearly not averse to the supposed peace talks with the Maoists but concurrently appears prepared to face the challenge if the rebels opt for a war with the State.

(Based on US Ambassador Moriarty's interview published October 4, 2004-ed).

Positive signals from Maoists camp

Kathmandu: The government is ready for talks with the Maoists.

The government concurrently sends the message to the other camp that it is also prepared to face the Maoists if they opt to go in for a battle with the state.

This means that the government has both the carrots and the stick for the Maoists.

The Maoists have yet to react to the answers sent to the insurgency by the government in response to Prachanda's six point questions sent in the name of the government.

Prachanda had hinted in his questions that if the other side sent logical answers to his questions then his party can think of the talks with this government.

However, the Maoists are left presumably with one single option: either coming to the negotiating table or face the joint wrath of the establishment which is now equipped with the open support from the lone super power and neighboring India.

Both India and the United States of America have hinted the Maoists in no uncertain terms that they preferred talks but would not shy away from supporting Nepal if the insurgents opted a violent clash with the state.

India of late has concluded that if the Nepali Maoists were left to proceed their way might endanger its own security concerns. India also has in the meantime arrived at a conclusion that since the nepali Maoists have had already developed a sort of strong linkages with similar insurgencies in India through a red-corridor that links Nepal with Andhra Pradesh. That India has already taken the Nepali Maoists as a common threat gets reflected from the fact that India's home minister recently held a meeting in Hyderabad wherein the chief ministers of those Indian states were present who were facing the brunt of similar insurgencies. The meeting also decided to break the linkages of the Nepali Maoists with those of the Indian Maoists.

This means that India has already tightened its belt and appears determined to curb the threat of the Maoists here and there through the use of force come hat may.

The recent arrests of Nepali Maoists in India also testify that India will now pounce on the Maoists either for safeguarding its own security interests or for extracting some "tangible" gains from Nepal, which is what India does more often than not.

It is not surprising therefore that Prachanda has already authorized Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai as coordinator for the talks with the government. This also means that Prachanda is convinced from the answers sent to him by the government.

Khetan's prediction, a mere conjecture?

Kathmandu: At a German embassy reception, Monday evening, noted industrialist, Mohan Gopal Khetan, was heard telling the Danish charge de' Affaires, says our sleuth, that if Nepal were allowed to function the nepali way, talks with the Maoists will also be held soon. Mr. Khetan also had predicted at the meeting with the Danish diplomat, adds our eavesdropper who was present at the reception, that the Maoists will in a day or two send positive messages for talks. Prachanda has sent positive signals for the talks well within a day of Khetan's prediction.

Is it a mere coincidence or had Mr. Khetan some inkling on the events to happen in advance?

All that the Danish envoy had wished that the talks should resume earliest which is in line with all the peace loving and democratic minded countries of the globe.

Publication: NEPAL FOUNDATION FOR ADVANCED STUDIES
In cooperation with the FES, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
Editors: Ananda Prasad Shrestha & Hari Uprety
Price: Not mentioned; ISBN: 99933-772-9-5

This edited volume seeks to emphasize the connections between several hurdles in the peace process, its costs to the nation and people and ways out of the crisis by peaceful means-Ed

Contact:4331280
nefas@mail.com.np

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