I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Militarization: real or illusory?

Kathmandu: Ill-fated nation, as it is now, has once again plunged into an unfortunate crisis. What should not have happened under any circumstances has come about whose political ramifications could embrace the entire nation if not handled with proper care.

The fact is that President Koirala was not allowed his free movement to Bhairahava last Saturday by some security forces on some pretext is a serious matter that has almost created a wave in the political circle of the country.

Interested quarters have tried to interpret this sad event in their own manner befitting with their political interests.

Koirala has reasons to fume with the bosses of the current establishment on the count that he was restricted by no less than an agency that is the army which, as is presumed, should not have come in his way of free travel to any parts of the country as guaranteed by the constitution.

Reports have it that the security organs have had expressed their apologies repeatedly and have also made it known that certain technical faults did allow such sad events to occur and that whatever happened was simply an "unintentional" one.

Koirala and his party colleagues in the congress and some other major political parties too appear not to digest the security forces' explanations and dare to dub the entire move as a process "geared" towards "rapid militarization" of the country.

Whether it is militarization or not, political scientists will have to initiate debates, however, what is for sure is that if Koirala and his party men so desire, this sad episode contains the seeds of a more serious confrontation in between the party concerned and the establishment more so the security forces.

It is not a matter of secret that Koirala and his party men since long time been suspecting the very nationalistic and patriotic credentials of the security forces in one pretext or the other. This party considers that the RNA is more loyal to the Royal institution than what it should have been for the system and the people and hence been demanding that the armed forces should come under the parliament.

The RNA denies this allegation and reiterates that they have ever remained loyal to the people and have time and again acted under the instructions of the government in Singh Durbar. The party men do not take the RNA's clarifications at its face value.

Be that as it may, the sad event has already taken place. Analysts opine that the issue has got to be sorted out in the larger interest of the country or else it might create a sort of dangerous rift in between the political parties, in this case the NC, and the nation's security forces which in no way could bode well for the nation.

The man who was hurt this Saturday, Koirala, has said that he has taken this event in a "serious" manner which means that Koirala will not settle for less unless the matter settles in his favor politically. Ultimately, how the security forces react to Koirala's overtures and what findings the government formed commission provides to the public will have determined the posture of the angered congress and its party boss, President Koirala.

Yet another set of analysts presume that this sad event might damage the prospects of an early dialogue with the Maoists. The Maoists have yet to offer their comments in this regard.

Wisdom demands that the issue is sorted out amicably and the ones who have exceeded their duty functions should be penalized so that the presumptions of the growing militarization of the country is put to rest once and for all.

Lifting of valley blockade a positive sign: observers

Kathmandu: Four political parties are still in the streets fighting against what they call, regression.

When this move against regression will yield positive results will have to be best predicted by astrologers of international repute.

Conversely, yet another set of four political parties are at the helm of affairs of the government backed by two independent candidates supposedly the King's nominees.

The parties in the streets and in the government, as a matter of fact, appear a balanced one with slight advantage going in favor of the establishment.

Thus the fight is on in between those who see the regression still in force and those who conclude that regression has at least partially been corrected with the stepping in of the Deuba government in Singh Durbar.

The four party alliance in the Katmandu's open streets against regression has decided to shake the establishment, read the King by implication, in a much more energetic manner so that the King ultimately is compelled to yield to their demands for the restoration of the parliament which would later form a consensus government that would finally initiate dialogues with the rebels. The presumption is that the moment parliament is restored even for a single minute, it would correct the acts of regression and that the supposed derailed constitution would get a new lease of life. Yet another thinking is that the formation of a new government after the parliament is restored, the government thus formed would command more credibility and legitimacy, which certainly would benefit the government at time of the talks with the Maoists.

The King appears to have been listening to the grievances of the four-party alliance but has so far not even given any inkling that he would in the near future oblige the street campaigners.

The street agitation is even being ignored by the men in the government to the extent that no body in the establishment talks in private about the street agitation but instead the Deuba government is all set to finalise the details of the agenda to be taken up in New Delhi during the impending Sher Bahadur Deuba's India trip.

The government under Deuba apparently is giving an impression that for the regime the top most priority is the restoration of peace in the country by inviting the rebels to the talks. Though conflicting reports emanate from government quarters regarding the possibility of the talks with the insurgents in the immediate future, still, if one were to believe" what the DPM, Bharat Mohan Adhikari told a gathering Monday that his government was "receiving" positive "signals" from the other camp and that the "rest of the things he can't divulge for exclusive reasons".

If it is so then what could be concluded is that the government, though charged with acts of dilly-dallying with the peace process, should have already made some headways vis-à-vis the talks with the insurgents.

Minister Adhikari went to the extent to assert that it was upon the government's sincere requests that the Maoists lifted the indefinite embargo on Kathmandu and its periphery.

Sounds interesting indeed.

But DPM Adhikari has yet to explain his government's failure in managing the reopening of some industries closed by the Maoists for an indefinite period by convincing the rebels.

While the industries under Maoists threat continues, the rebels have revealed that some more industries were in the list of closure. The Maoists threat to close the industries with American investment is a matter that has puzzled many a brains in Kathmandu's political circles.

Why only the US investments are being made the target by the Maoists is yet to get plausible answers? Dr. Mohsin, the government's spokesman, the other day too expressed his surprise over the Maoists decision to make the American investments their target? What of others?

The Maoists nevertheless, have said that they were making the UN companies their targets for they don't like the manner the American officials have been influencing the functioning of the government in Kathmandu.

Analysts opine that the Maoists understand well that so many countries here and there have been influencing the country's politics their way but yet their investments were not being made targets? This is puzzling indeed.

But then yet the Maoists made their target to one company with not an American investment. It was indeed an Indian investment, The Nepal Lever Ltd. that instantly invited scathing criticism from Indian government wherein it said, "The Government of India calls for an end to the targeting of business enterprises and strongly urges that business ventures be allowed to operate freely, without fear of violence in the interest of the people of Nepal". The Indian government has appealed the Nepal government to apprehend the culprits and penalise what is due to them.

Observers here see not so many American investments in Nepal comparatively speaking but yet get surprised over why the Maoists have made their investments its targets?

All in all, the lifting of the imposition of an embargo on Kathmandu valley by the Maoists is a positive sign indeed. Analysts see in this move the Maoists' love and sincerity towards the Nepali people, their own brethren.

Observers hope that the Maoists keep up this spirit and come to the table keeping in view of the larger interest of their own motherland which is equally near and dear to them all undoubtedly.

India positive towards Nepali crisis!

Kathmandu: The UML strongman, Madhav Kumar Nepal is back from his short but presumably "meaningful" Delhi pilgrimage. Though the maverick communist leader has so far not revealed the purpose of his sudden visit, however, mature political analysts are quick to conclude that Mr. Nepal should have met his Indian mentors and in the process could have also discussed with his Maoists friends.

However, no substantial proof of all these presumptions have so far been made by any quarter in Nepal.

Madhav's family sources say that Mr. Nepal's Delhi trip was just made to see his ailing daughter who is currently enjoying Indian scholarship for her Medical degree, the MBBS.

Be that as it may, Madhav Nepal upon his return from Delhi is now a politically changed personality. However, what made him to acquire a rough and tough position towards those whom he concludes that it were they who had been dilly-dallying the talks with the Maoists.

"It is again the regressive forces that have been impeding the talks with the Maoists", said a furious Madhav Nepal a few days ago.

But then what factors made him to change his previous stance is still unclear. However, the fact is that for Madhav Nepal now it is not the regressive forces that had been blocking the talks with the Maoists. Now a changed Madhav Nepal says, "the talks with the Maoists will take place come what may".

This comes closer on the heels of his own party DPM, Bharat Mohan Adhikari, who the other day revealed that he have had received positive signals from the camp of the rebels and that he could read from those signals that the Maoists too were eager for the talks.

Serious security analysts opine that the recent Indian political overtures indicate that India as a neighboring country too is in a mood to curb the Maoists insurgency in Nepal as she now concludes that the ever growing linkages in between the Nepali Maoists with their own insurgents scattered in different parts of the country could have a disastrous impact on their own overall security.

Security analyst, Dr. Karna Thapa sees Indian gesture of handing over of some Maoists rebels to Nepal as a clear indication that India is a changed country now.

In addition to that, a senior Indian counter-insurgency officer, Vinay Kumar Singh, has noted that guerrilla leaders in Nepal and India had talked about a "red corridor" stretching from Nepal into the Indian states of Bihar and Andhra Pradesh. "We all laughed at it some 10 years ago at the existence of a 'red corridor,'" he said. "Nobody is laughing any more", writes Richard Halloran, a former New York Times correspondent in Asia and military correspondent in Washington, D.C in a story recently printed in the Korea herald.

Pleasing as it is, reports have it that Prime Minister Deuba is determined to extend an open invitation to the Maoists for a meaningful dialogue. And this he is doing on the eve of his impending India visit.

The importance of this open invitation lies here.

Nepali leaders to attend ICAPP Beijing meet

Kathmandu: An International conference of the major Asian political parties, ICAPP, is scheduled to be held in Beijing, China, beginning September 3, this month.

The International conference will conclude on 5th September.

This is the third conference in series held under the aegis of the ICAPP. The first ICAPP conference was held in the Philippines and Thailand had hosted the second meeting.

Those participating in this conference will include ruling as well opposition parties of the Asian countries.

The conference is expected to concentrate its debates on how to secure sustainable environment, economic development and steer politics in order to provide the countries with vibrant democratic order.

Nepal's political parties, for example, the Nepali Congress, the RPP, NC-D and the UML are all set participate in this conference.

The Nepali congress is to be represented by Sushil Koirala and Dr. Suresh Chalise who are respectively the General Secretary and the International relations advisor of the said party, it is learnt.

Danke Schön Rudi!

Kathmandu: The German Ambassador, Herr Rudiger Lemp, upon completion of his Ambassadorial assignment in Nepal is leaving for Germany this Thursday.

Talking to the Telegraph weekly Monday evening, the outgoing Ambassador Rudiger lemp in his farewell message to the Nepalese people said "don't let the ongoing conflict be a routine affair".

In a voice choked with emotion, Ambassador Lemp also said that the "Nepalese people must remain ever aware of the urgency of the need for a permanent solution to the conflict".

"Don't get used to the conflict" and try to "understand the gravity of the situation", the Ambassador concluded.

The Telegraph weekly wishes the outgoing Ambassador a very healthy and prosperous life and hopes that while in Germany he will continue to exhibit his sentimental attachment towards this country.

Telegraph adds: The new German Ambassador to Nepal is Herr FRANZ E. Ring who is arriving Kathmandu today to take up his new assignment. Mr. Franz is presenting his credentials this Friday, it is learnt. Danke Schoen Rudi!

Nepalese life hangs in balance, Foreign Ministry unable to act

N.ARYAL

With the increase in violence, insecurity and unemployment, Nepali youths leaving the country to find good jobs and earn some money has increased tremendously in the recent past. The government provided data indicates more than a hundred thousand youths leave the country for foreign employment.

Whereas, unofficial sources claim number of youths leaving country could be even a staggering high as there are other ways, like acquiring a tourist visa and living in the country of destination illegally.

In the meantime, the Iraqi episode has drawn major attention because there are no legal ways for living and working in Iraq. Now comes the question that how those ill-fated Nepalese landed in war torn Iraq?

"With the increase in violence in the kingdom and the ever swelling number of fake and illegal man power companies, they lure the dejected and frustrated youths and thus the directionless youths get tempted for flying abroad no matter what is the working condition and even the salaries that they would get there", told an owner of a manpower company in Kathmandu to the Telegraph weekly over telephone.

It were the Maoists, who first started abducting their own countrymen be they small kids going to a primary school or a laymen who knew nothing about the ongoing conflict.

Normally the Maoists abduction comes in the name of revolutionary indoctrination; the preached ones of course are forced to pay attention.

Now Nepalese are in the news all over the world, courtesy the Maoists at home and abroad.

In Iraq there are 13 of the Nepalese abducted by the Islamic militants and the government does not have a trace of information as to why they are abducted and when they would be released.

Then comes another news form Afghanistan where International media claims three of those who died recently in a bomb blast in Kabul were of Nepali origin.

Our foreign ministry as usual is unaware of the situation and Nepali diplomats around Afghanistan prefer to shift the duty onto the heads of others.

Kantipur F.M reports that the Nepali Mission stationed in Pakistan when asked about this episode clears itself by saying that Kabul does not belong within its jurisdiction. Nor the Delhi Mission responds but the Foreign Secretary Madhu Raman Acharya at the Shital Niwas claims that as a matter of fact, New Delhi used to and should take up the matter.

Lost in the process is the fate of the youths missing or killed in Afghanistan or in Iraq and in Mumbai.

Nepali hostages killed

Kathmandu: The Islamist Army of Ansar al-Sunna have killed the twelve Nepalese who they had taken hostage in Iraq on August 20, international news agencies said citing information posted by the militants on an Islamic website. The details are awaited.

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