I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Self-defeating journey!

Kathmandu: Common sense demands that Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba should not make a tour to India. However, he will not do so for so many explained and unexplained reasons. He is leaving for New Delhi today with a dozen of his cabinet ministers in order either to avoid party criticisms here or at best to make them all responsible for all what he will accomplish, good or bad, in Delhi.

The nation that was on fire is yet to extinguish. The country that witnessed unprecedented violence, arson and loot and above all, communal frenzy, is yet to come to senses.

A government that remained as a speechless spectator for all along the first seven hours of the devastating scene in Kathmandu and elsewhere in the country on the very first day of the riot, last Wednesday, is by all accessible political theories is a frail government whose remaining in power is being challenged by lay men and the political parties alike should have desisted from making a outing to a country whose skill in twisting the arms and applying coercive diplomacy at the negotiating table with those of the neighboring countries is considered to be superb that has no parallel in the region and elsewhere as well. The wearer knows where the shoe pinches.

A vulnerable prime minister, the leader of a weak and divided cabinet, a government that does not enjoy the popular support is making a trip to a country that has ever tried and succeeded in exploiting from Nepali weaknesses, if one were to recall.

"Recall, the scar of the 1950 treaty of peace and friendship", said even a NC stalwart who is considered to be close to the Indian leaders more than what he is for his own Nepali colleagues, Chakra Prasad Bastola, commenting on Deuba's visit to India. In effect, Bastola, by implication, hinted that Nepal as a country should have waited for an opportune moment to have a dialogue with India. Bastola, a former Nepali Ambassador to Delhi, apparently indicated that he knew how India extracts benefits for herself.

K.P.Woli, a UML leader, has advised the Deuba government not to sign any treaty or agreements that makes Nepalese to weep later. Woli's utterances are important in the sense that he has spoken the Nepali minds this time at least. It is not for nothing that he has dubbed Deuba as the weakest ever Prime Minister the country have had in its history.

A host of other prominent Nepali leaders have raised apprehensions regarding this agenda-less and preparation-less visit. Nevertheless, the leaders opposing the impending Deuba trip to Delhi on one pretext or the other, have had already made secret trips to Delhi much ahead of Deuba's trip. The reasons of the secret trips to Delhi by Madhav Nepal, Pashupati Rana, Rajendra Mahato and a host of known and unknown leaders have yet to come to the open which hopefully, analysts presume, were made at the Indian insistence in order to make easier the deals at time of Nepal's Prime Minister's Delhi sojourn.

Political observers say that the manner Indian Prime Minister has expressed his eagerness to "greet" his Nepali counterpart bodes ill for this nation. This section predicts that a weaker Nepal might lose so many things at a time to receive meager political benefits.

Be that as it may, Nepal has ever been at the bottom in so far as gains are concerned while negotiating with India. Nepal as a nation state has accepted whatever India has provided us on their terms.

Observers opine that Nepal is sure to loose from Deuba's India's trip, but what we are loosing and the definite-loss is of what dimension will have to be carefully watched.

A trip made in haste, a trip being materialized at a time when no proper homework has been made, a trip that sans the public support, a trip that is being even criticized by political parties is sure to boomerang on the country. However, if the powers-that-be wishes to plunge the nation to an abyss, little the silent majority can do to avert the self-invited trouble.

Mature observers recall with gloomy face that it was practically this set in the government then which finalized the Mahakali package that is supposed to have gone in India's favor.

Deuba was the prime minister who was backed by UML strongman, Madhav Nepal, who was pleasingly supported by the RPP chief, P. Rana then at time of the ratification of the Mahakali treaty in the Nepali parliament. Not very surprising then the UML split on account of this treaty hinting that some nationalist elements existed very much in the party. The fact is that the nationalist set was told to quit the party who later formed the ML. This ML later merged with the mother UML party. The nationalists and those who favored the Mahakali treaty reconciled with each other hinting that feeble voice can't exist in Nepal.

Fortunately or unfortunately, Deuba is head of the government today, the ever-dubious UML is in the cabinet and RPPs gracious presence is very much in the government and it is this set, which is visiting New Delhi beginning today.

Political analysts have grounds to suspect that this (in) famous set could once again allow the other party to extract greater concessions at the cost of Nepali interests, if any.

The Nepali fate!

President Koirala not yet convinced

Kathmandu: Congress President Girija Prasad Koirala has reasons to be unhappy with the findings of the government constituted commission, which has apparently made Koirala clear that the incident at the airport was just a trifling matter, which warranted no greater attention.

"It was just the lack of proper and effective coordination of information in between the security agencies stationed at the airport and elsewhere which caused the emergence of this sad incident", is what the commission said in its report that it submitted to the government last week.

Koirala and his colleagues, however, reject this version of the government and dare to say that some powerful forces could have influenced the findings of the commission, which belittled the issue wherein Koirala was debarred from attending a meet in Bhairahava on that fateful day.

Koirala's airport incident could have stretched for long, analysts say, but one very unfortunate and chaotic event last Wednesday shadowed all other previous smaller incidents, comparatively speaking, for example, that of the congress president. Or else the manner the congress party and its affiliated organizations had begun retaliating against the airport incident did hint that the nation would reel under its weight for some time to come. However, that did not happen for other events of national dimensions replaced the one wherein Koirala expected justice for himself, who was denied, he and his colleagues claim now.

However, certain sources close to Deuba claim that President Koirala was denied entry at the airport when security agencies came to know in advance that apart from addressing a congress meet in Bhairahava, Koirala was all set to have a secret level talks with one Maoists central committee leader, Dev Gurung, some where in the periphery of that town in western Nepal. So far others have not substantiated this news save one weekly that apparently talks in favor of Deuba and his political paraphernalia. If this were true would mean that Koirala is on the run to sort out the Maoists imbroglio. Not bad!

Be that as it may, the government's version in this regard is yet to come to the open.

Congress party under Koirala nurtures a feeling that the Nepali army has some reservations vis-à-vis the party and its paramount leader, Koirala.

The fact is that Koirala and his party conclude that the Nepali army has never listened to the orders of the sitting government and that the army gets mobilized only when the monarch tells them to act. Koirala and his colleagues recall that when the then prime minister tried to mobilize the army at time of the Holeri incident against the Maoists some five years ago, the army simply denied the governmental orders which meant that a sitting prime minister can't force the military to act unless the Premier is backed by the monarch. These events have made the congress to conclude that the army has got to be tamed and since the Holeri incident, congress has been demanding the army to remain under the government control. In the process, Koirala and his party have made some scathing comments against the army.

The Royal Nepali Army rebuffs this claim and clarifies that the entire institution is at the service of the nation and that they have come out of the barracks as and when the government has ordered them at act.

The RNA thus disclaims Congress allegations.

In the process, a sort of misunderstanding thus apparently persists in between congress and the military institution. If it is, say analysts, by default then it has got to be corrected at the earliest.

It is in this light Koirala suspects that the commission that was told to go deep into the causes of him being debarred from entering into the airport premises to have been influenced by the members of the commission belonging to security agencies.

This is unfortunate, say analysts. They hasten to add that two powerful institutions of the country, one political force and the other a very powerful security wing of the nation, should have reconciled with each other in the larger interest of the nation.

How Koirala and his party will react to the findings of the commission will have to be observed.

In the meantime, Congress president has demanded the formation of three separate powerful committees to investigate the incident that rocked the nation last Wednesday in the wake of the Iraqi massacre of twelve Nepali youths. According to Koirala, different committees are allowed to investigate the religious, social and the other aspects of the damage caused by the riot. Koirala's logic appears tenable given the riot has hit hard practically all the fabrics of the Nepali society.

The government is yet to act as per Koirala's wishes.

Maoists' plan strategic counter attack; prefer to talk with King

Kathmandu: The Maoist insurgents are once again in the media headlines.

The rebellions are in the news because they have created news.

They are in the news because they are forced to be in the news either by design or otherwise.

Clearly, analyzing all the news that center around the insurgents what comes to the fore is that they wish to settle their rivalry with the Old regime either by force or arriving at an amicable solution to both.

The fact is that conflicting reports too have begun emanating from the Maoists quarters. If they hint, through their own channels, that they were in favor of the talks with the State albeit in the presence of an international guarantor, for example the UN, on the other they categorically indicate that talks with the Deuba government were a matter next to impossible.

Instead, the insurgents have expressed a desire for the talks with an institution that apparently would avoid talking to them constitutionally.

The fact is that Maoists leaders have indicated in clear terms that they would wish the talks to proceed with the King and not with his government.

Concurrently, a central committee meeting of the Maoists talked to have been taken place well within Nepali territory recently has decided firmly that the rebels were ready for a "strategic counter attack" on the state and that all preparations in this regard were made.

Several points could be deduced from the various, at times contradictory, statements being made by the leaders of the insurgency.

Firstly, they have made it clear is that they will not talks with the King's government which means that Deuba's authority as nation's prime minister is cipher in their calculation. This also would mean that the relevancy of Deuba government for the talks has become redundant.

Secondly, their indication that they could initiate talks with the King to arrive at a solution to this issue does amply hint that in their eyes the monarch continues to be a formidable force in the scheme of the country's prevailing politics and that talking to Tom-Dick and Harry would mean little to them.

This, if further analyzed, leads us to conclude that their preference for talks straight with the monarch is guided by the presumption that the concessions, albeit political ones, they would like to have for themselves at time of the talks, must have the sanctions of the monarch and that it is the monarch who alone can decide to what extent he can satisfy the Maoists demands! This is a matured and a very significant calculation on their part.

Thirdly, the insurgency also wishes to send warning signals to the other camp for being serious for the talks or else they will bring to use their newly acquired strategy of a strategic counter attack which could be even more violent than the previous ones. Smells of carrot and stick policy.

Fourthly, the Maoists have decided to launch a strategic attack on the state at a time when they have become pretty aware that for them now India remained no more a safer place to conduct their warfare in Nepal. That the Maoists leaders were not that happy with the present Indian leadership becomes evidently clear from their fresh statements, to be precise, September 1, wherein they even dare to dub India as the main villain for talks. A significant change in Maoists perception towards India indeed. This is very important and worth pondering over.

Fifthly, the Maoists apparently have concluded that the growing nexus in between Delhi and Kathmandu does bode ill for the insurgency and that this nexus would come as a disaster for them should Kathmandu seduces Delhi by providing greater concessions to the latter at time of Deuba's trip to India.

Importantly, after a lapse of so many good years, the Maoists too have come to their senses and now see India as a villain forwarding so many exclusive reasons.

That India is also taking the Nepali Maoists' linkages with those of the similar Indian insurgents, as a threat to its own territorial security is what has apparently compelled Indian Prime Minister to extend his "hearty welcome" to his Nepali counterpart. Dr. Man Mohan Singh has hinted, reports say, that he would go to any extent in supporting Nepal on the issue of the Maoists come what may.

However, sources do not reveal, on what major concessions the Indian prime minister will extend his support to Nepal.

The coming weeks and months will apparently remain decisive both for Nepal as a nation-state and the Nepali insurgents as a political paraphernalia.

Analysts prefer to wait and see the changes that are to shape the country's politics in the immediate future.

Nepal's 'communal harmony' remains intact

Kathmandu: Hardly had the news broken that twelve Nepalese youths were butchered by some fanatical elements in Iraq last week, Kathmandu population came into violent action in retaliation to the Iraqi incident.

The news broke on Tuesday afternoon. The government, had it been wise enough, could and should have understood the gravity of the impending devastating situation that would follow and taken appropriate measures to bring under control the situation emerging thereafter, could have easily done so but it did not do so.

The result: Kathmandu city was torn apart by the spontaneous reaction to the ghastly Iraq incident which was only but natural. However, that was not all.

When some anti-social, disintegrative forces in collaboration with those who wished Nepal's communal harmony to go to the dogs came to the streets and created panic of the order that was simply unprecedented in Nepal's history.

In the process, most unfortunately, some of the popular and most revered mosques of the Muslim brethren were set on fire and the police men just opposite to the mosque could do little to prevent the sacrosanct mosque from being burnt.

Eye witnesses say had the police been on time, the mosques would have been saved and the culprits brought to book. However, this did not happen resulting in hurting the sentiments of the muslim community.

Nepali Muslim brethren, nevertheless, did not pay much attention to this fanatic act but instead dubbed the entire event as to have been perpetrated by certain divisive and communal forces which do not want to see Nepal living in total communal harmony, as it has lived in the past seven hundred years.

Thanks to the kind sentiments that emanated from the aggrieved community, the Muslims, that a great disaster was averted and that too wisely.

The fact is that the wound is healing.

An unprecedented peace and communal harmony rally was organized in Kathmandu and in other towns of Nepal by the leaders of practically all of the available religions in Nepal who unequivocally urged for the maintenance of peace, tranquility and communal harmony in the country at any cost.

Such rallies rarely could be seen elsewhere other than in Nepal. In doing so, this country has once again demonstrated that Hindu-Muslim brotherhood is impenetrable even if some tries to penetrate into it.

When the miscreants did the devastation with full energy, the government came to its senses and imposed curfew orders. Better late than never, the prohibitory orders did work. However, the government is yet to bring the extremists who created mayhem in the country to book. A commission is there but how long it would take for investigation is any body's guess.

Nepali population deserves deep appreciation for having worked hard to maintain the longstanding communal harmony in between Muslims and the Hindus and even in trying times of the sort that we witnessed last week.

No to such incidents that shatter our hard earn communal harmony!

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