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Stage set for a big fight!

Kathmandu: The stage is set presumably for a big fight in between the United States of America and the Nepali insurgents, the Maoists.

It could be a mere conjecture indeed but the fact is that around the time when United States Ambassador James F. Moriarty while addressing a Nepal Council of World Affairs gathering, September 10, at Hotel Shanker was saying that "my country would not tolerate any attack either on our citizens or on our institutions in Nepal and that it would do the needful", a powerful gelatin rocked the American Center in Gyaneshwar.

However, who or which group hurled the bomb inside the center is yet unknown but then sources close to Police say that it could have been the act of the Maoists. The Maoists have yet to take the responsibilities for the attack on the American institution that simply caters to the information to the needy ones, for example, the students, scholars and journalists, regarding the US.

Surely this sad incident has made the American officials in Kathmandu more alert and active as well and how the United States of America retaliates to this event will have to be watched.

However, the manner the US Ambassador, Moriarty, managed an additional security aid to this country does hint that the US will not settle for less come what may.

The US apparently has changed its posture instantly and presumably is thinking on the lines on how to force the Maoists to come to the terms of the Nepali establishment.

To recall, the Americans take such incidents as an affront on their national prestige and plan measures to retaliate in an equally forceful manner against the perpetrators who dare to challenge their might.

The Nepali establishment suddenly became active and Deuba, that time in Delhi, talked to the American envoy and assured the latter that every thing would be done to protect the Americans and their institutions in Kathmandu. Add to this, the European Union members too deplored the unfortunate event of 10 September at the American center which went to the extent in saying that "these attacks represent a serious new development in Maoist tactics and a highly unwelcome direct involvement of the Kathmandu diplomatic community in the Nepali conflict".

This particular statement from the EU now clearly implies that there has been a sort of belated realization among the members of the European community that if it were the US institutions the target of attack of the Maoists, the next day it could be them as well.

The US which lamented in the past that it was a tragedy that the EU members had taken a different path vis-à-vis the Maoists issue now has reasons to be happy that, better late than never, the friends from the EU have come to the same wavelength where the US found itself alone for more than two years or so.

That the US now is all set to step up its volume of assistance to this country gets reflected from their fresh assertion wherein it says, "Friday's attack would only serve to increase American support for the efforts of the government of Nepal to find a peaceful solution to the insurgency".

A close look at this statement does indicate two things: firstly, it hints that it would increase US assistance to Nepal to make the latter able to face the Maoists challenge on its own; and secondly, the statement also indicates that the US will still wish a peaceful solution to the Maoists imbroglio.

Nevertheless, the promptness with which the US Embassy has asked for a $ 1million extra money for Nepal does clearly speak that the US has taken the attack on its institution in a very bad taste. If it is so then what could also be concluded is that the Nepali establishment will acquire a somewhat tough position vis-à-vis the insurgents in the days ahead but keeping the options for the talks open.

The hectic diplomatic efforts initiated by US officials of late appear to have worked. Finally, the Indian authorities have become convinced that in sorting out the Maoists issue they have a tremendous role and this is what the US side had been ventilating through various channels since a year or so. Better late than never, the authorities in Delhi have realized this fact and have apparently hinted that they will do every thing that they can in this regard.

Significant is Ambassador Moriarty's admission September 10, that a few days back he was in Delhi wherein he found the Indian leaders equally concerned over the Maoists issue of this Himalayan Kingdom.

Should this mean that Washington and Delhi are now in the same wavelength a propos the Nepali insurgents? Will it take a shape of Delhi-Washington nexus?

Analysts say that it is pleasing to note that the US still favored peaceful solution to the overly stretched Maoists imbroglio given the sad incident that took place in its premises on September 10. An annoyed US would have suggested the Nepali establishment to acquire a different posture other than the talks for peace. However, they did not press the establishment for that.

At what price the Indian support?

Kathmandu: Now the mood is different.

Nepal's Prime Minister who had left Delhi as if he were close to a lame-duck has returned Kathmandu as a wild cat to the utter dismay of matured political analysts leaving them all to guess as to what could have changed the stamina and the energy of Nepal's weakest ever prime minister?

The reason is clear and enlightening.

Deuba during his trip to Delhi apparently has become able to impart a sense of terror and threat in the minds of the Indian leaders that Maoists who have been posing a challenge to Nepal could well one fine morning be a source of security tension to the country who apparently has provided them with a shelter.

The Indian leaders got Deuba's points clearly and have assured Deuba that they too have come to the same conclusion and that the Nepali Maoists will henceforth be treated as "shared threat" to both the countries.

In the process, India has provided Nepal with more than adequate lethal weapons to counter the threats posed to it by the insurgents.

Interestingly, the Indian authorities nabbed a few of the hard core Maoists leaders in Patna and elsewhere while Nepal's prime minister was in India apparently guided by a desire to impress upon Nepal that India was serious over Nepali concerns.

What factors could have changed the Indian minds a propos the Nepali Maoists?

Interpretations might vary from brains to brains.

Matured political analysts see varied reasons that could have forced India to change her stance regarding the Maoists.

Firstly, Indian authorities belatedly came to the conclusion that the Nepali Maoists have had already developed a sort of linkages with similar insurgent groups operating in India through a corridor that stretched from Nepal's Terai to as far as Andhra Pradesh in India.

Secondly, the Indian authorities closed their eyes until the Nepali Maoists managed a sort of private linkages with various political lobbies in Delhi and that when the insurgents began ventilating anti-Indian stances; the leadership in Delhi got irritated.

Thirdly, Delhi did not mind Maoists presence in Indian territories until they refrained from reiterating those first four demands of the total forty which they submitted to the Nepali establishment in 1996 for its execution. The first four demands are all aimed against India and touch upon the abrogation of all the unequal treaties with India. However, the Maoists of late had begun to hit India under one pretext or the other to the utter chagrin of the Indian establishment.

Fourthly, it might have come for the Indian authorities as a bolt from the blue when the Maoists only recently dubbed India as an "expansionist" nation. This term apparently annoyed India to the extent that she decided to provide its helping hand to Nepal in order to wipe out an enemy that has dared to give her a bad name.

Fifthly, the increasing American efforts at convincing the Indian leadership too apparently has worked this time. More so, American Ambassador James F. Moriarty's fresh Delhi trip too appears to have added to Indian haste in arriving at a conclusion that Nepali Maoists too amounted to a security threat to India.

Sixthly, the powers-that-be in Delhi presumably calculated that a weak monarchy facing constant criticisms from all quarters in Kathmandu was neither in the interest of India nor to the region's political balance and hence the Indian authorities expressed their desire to crush the Maoists in order both to tame the Maoists and concurrently enhance the sagging morale of the Nepal's royal institution.

This way the leaders in Delhi have presumably won the hearts of King Gyanendra. That India would wish the Nepali monarchy to thrive in this Himalayan Kingdom becomes evidently clear from Indian declaration that Delhi would wish Nepal continues with multi-party democracy under a constitutional monarchy. This apparently sends messages to all those political brains who prefer the abolition of a monarchical system from this country. The message from India is loud and clear that India favored continuation of Kingship in Nepal. This could be a message to Koirala and his associates plus the Maoists as well who of late have been criticizing the monarchy under one pretext or the other.

Add to this, the US position too is clear on Nepali monarchy. Ambassador Moriarty has time and again reiterated that the US too would maintain a policy wherein multi-party system under constitutional monarchy remains intact in any future negotiations with the Maoists or whosoever.

The King now by mere coincidence or by default or even by a calculated plan has suddenly become powerful. Analysts recognize this sudden change to have gone in favor of the monarchy and by the same token brought the US and India closer at least on how to treat with the Maoists.

But the million dollar question remains: What is the reason behind Indian magnanimity and that too so suddenly?

Deuba knows and he should explain it better at "what price" India was encouraged to open its heart?

Undoubtedly, analysts opine, Nepal must have paid a very heavy price for these superficial gains.

How the Maoists react to India's fresh political overtures will have determined the future course of their action against a "determined establishment" and vice versa.

Politics slipping out of Koirala hands

Kathmandu: Politics is slipping out of the hands of President Girija Prasad Koirala.

His number one rival, the incumbent Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, appears to have become closer to the Indian leadership as it became evident from the trip Deuba made last week.

Koirala must have inferred so many messages for him and his colleagues in the streets from the statements that the Indian leadership made during Deuba's trip there and must have concluded that their dream to challenge the authority of the King will remain an utopia at least for some time to come.

President Koirala must have received a political jerk when he saw that his bete noir, Deuba, stole so many cards from under his sleeves, which he presumably wanted to use to settle the Maoists issue as per his declaration.

The strongest message that India has sent to the rebels and Koirala and his colleagues in the streets that henceforth India will not tolerate any clandestine efforts aimed at weakening the Nepali monarchy.

Nevertheless, Koirala is a different political stuff who at this age appears to have made up his mind that the rest of the years he would wage a sort of perennial battle against the King in order to what he calls bring the monarch under the constitution.

The King is silent but could have been listening to Koirala's scathing criticisms being made against him.

Only the other day, Koirala once again reiterated that efforts were afoot to install him as the nation's next prime minister and that he would not assume that post under the provisions of the controversial article 127.

In saying so, Koirala is sending signals to the palace that if the royalty devised some other schemes other than those of the 127, he was ready to assume the post pleasingly. This would further lead us to conclude that if the King managed friendly relations with him, Koirala might consider it a privilege and be ready to come to the rescue of the monarch from the attacks on the institution emanating as it does from various political quarters.

Be that as it may, analyzing Koirala recent political overtures and tour being made out of Kathmandu, what could be said of him is that the NC president finds himself as a lone crusader in his long march in what he claims "teaching" a lesson to the monarch. However, the fact is that Koirala is fighting this battle alone and apparently his former aide de camps too prefer now to keep themselves at a comfortable distance with their own leader for unknown reasons. This is a political loss for Koirala if it is in effect so and he is advised, analysts say, to revamp his own party so that the party emerges with greater strength to face the challenges posed to the party both by rival Deuba and other powerful quarters.

Koirala's sagging morale is evident. His party is divided. Whatever is left in the party is in disarray. Sycophants loitering around Koirala are eating the party's economic and political stamina both.

Crying foul against the monarch or Deuba will do little to enhance his towering political image.

Analysts in this background advise Koirala to act like a caretaker of the country's politics, which is what his followers and common denizens alike expect from the septuagenarian leader of the congress.

Others say that Koirala can do more than Deuba in convincing the Maoists leaders. As a matter of fact Koirala's dominating personality and his commitments to democratic ideals stand tall not only in this country but in the region as well which he could use in convincing the much junior leaders of the Maoists camp.

Koirala has one more advantage over Deuba. Koirala is still respected and honored in Delhi as was evident during his last trip to Delhi wherein he met practically all those leaders who received this time Deuba. This means that Koirala possesses still political leverage in the power corridors in Delhi which the Maoists understands better.

As a senior leader, Koirala can to a greater extent influence his friends in the Maoists camp and can manage a safe landing for the rebels. This Koirala should do and can do given the backdrop that both India and the United States appear hell bent on pouncing on the Maoists, at least this is what is being made to understand.

More over, if Koirala is a changed political personality, analysts hope, the King should not hesitate in greeting him as a senior politician of the country who have had the rare honor to work with the present King's predecessors, beginning King Tribhuvan, King Mahendra and King Birendra. The monarch too should evaluate the contributions of the congress party, which all along championed the cause for the constitutional monarchy in the country.

All put together, analysts opine that Koirala has to patch up his differences with the King and vice versa which if materializes would mean a comparatively better future for Nepal. If the King softens his stance vis-à-vis Koirala will not only enhance his own image but would also find a place in the hearts of each and every congressmen.

If it does happen, the Maoists too perhaps wish to refrain from going in for an endless battle and join the political mainstream.

But then the question remains: Will Koirala or for that matter the King proceed as per the preferences of the lay men and the intellectuals alike?

Another Bundh!

Kathmandu: Protesting against the killings of their cadres at the Siraha District by the security forces, the Maoists are organizing a two-day closure from September 28 to 29. This closure is called by Badal, a Maoists politburo member who is apparently the military commander of the insurgency, states a press release issued by the Maoists recently.

The Maoists press release also stated that the closure would cover six zones namely Koshi, Mechi, Janakpur, Sagarmatha, Narayani and Bagmati.

Indefinite closure of industries might boomerang

The nation’s ailing economy is being pushed, deliberately or otherwise, towards an abyss as the Maoists continue to remain quiet over their forced closure of the Nepalese industries. However, sources close to HR groups maintain that the continuing closure might be lifted in a day or two. Presumptions only!

Maoists’ strategy to forcibly close down, either the American or the Royal ventures of the Nepalese industries and some owned by others as well will not only break the economy into pieces but concurrently that would further break the vertebral columns of those working class strata for whom the Maoists claim that they champion their cause.

Any further continuation of the closure is sure to boomerang on the Maoists, say those who have been severely hurt by this indefinite bunds.

First, the nearly failed Maoists strategy of the capital blockade which followed the industrial closure has certainly raised pertinent questions among the populace as to what the Maoists really want to prove by hurting the common people?

On the other hand, with the growing American and the Indian support to the Government, whose presence could be felt in and around the Singhdurbar secretariat, has chosen to remain quiet and let the things come to order on its own. Very sad indeed!

"Carelessness on the part of the government and the Maoists is sure to hit the common men harder", said one industrialist talking to the Telegraph.

The Maoists affiliated Trade Union on the other hand claim that this move for a summary closure of the industries was necessary as their demands had been repeatedly turned down by the government.

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